UK General Election 2017

[Jack Knave]

What new magic does the Prime Minister believe she has?
2010 Country split.
2015 Narrow tory majority.
2016 Country split down the middle,

That's out of date now, the polls show the Tories with a 15-20 point lead.

[Jack Knave]

On listening to her announcement again her 'the country is coming together' assertion is simply unbelievable.

I believe that about 60% just want the government to get on with Brexit so I guess she is implying that the people just want the job done, whereas parliament is just fighting with itself with many trying to reverse the referendum.

[Jack Knave]

This is a huge gamble.

If it turns into a referendum on the referendum, which it has every possibility of doing, the vote could be much more unpredictable than it appears in the polls currently.

I agree.

[jeremyp]

How?

According to an analyst on the R4 news this evening, with a larger majority, May will be able to tell the extreme Eurosceptics to shove it.

[Jack Knave]

Yes, given she told Nicola Sturgeon she couldn't have an independance  vote as it was " the wrong time."

How come it's suddenly " the right time" to rush to hold this election in June? Polititicians live on another planet.

Say one thing, do the opposite.

I thought the idea was the country needed stability?

 

None of it encourages " the country coming together" imo.

It just makes me feel none of them know what they are doing.

I don't want to vote for any of them!  😝

That's not the same thing. Indyref2 was/is linked to the Brexit issue directly whereas this GE isn't.

[jeremyp]

That's not the same thing. Indyref2 was/is linked to the Brexit issue directly whereas this GE isn't.

Theresa May has linked the general election to Brexit.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I do not share your optimism. I think the Conservatives will win with an increased majority.
The problem with Labour is that all their best people (as in with the best qualifications to run as a credible candidate for PM) were associated with Blair and Brown and thus culled after the 2010 general election. Then all the second best people went after the Milliband fiasco in 2015 (was it really only two years ago?). Then the dregs were put out of their misery during the leadership challenge. Corbyn is useless and his team is practically the Labour D team. 

Interestingly, they are still more competent than the UKIP leadership.

Well in electoral terms I suppose we're either at 1983 or 1987.
On the other hand if this is about Corbyn you can only play that card once.
I'm pretty confident May has no Falklands factor or 2nd election momentum for a huge landslide as Blair or Thatcher did.
Vox pops belie any notion she might have that her people love her.
A snap election after a Corbyn successor would have been a better prospect I would have thought.

[Nearly Sane]

Theresa May has linked the general election to Brexit.

not just linked it, made it about.

[Jack Knave]

Which means she will need to be clear what her position is.

And here's the danger for May - she is currently riding on a wave of 'all-things-to-all-people' brexit. That isn't going to wash in a general election campaign, particularly one that she has specifically called. She runs the risk of support pealing away whichever approach she adopts.

And of course her position must be credible or again it won't wash. My gut feeling here is that she will actually put forward a more pragmatic and consensual proposal - in other words a pretty soft brexit, with a focus on protecting the economy. And in doing so I think she will win pretty comfortably. If she goes all hard brexit, extremism, she will suffer, simply because there aren't enough people on that extreme end.

But as the Labour lot are trying there are other issues in a GE and many have seen how she has handled things like the NHS, schools and so on. These are iffy times and I predict a mess.

[Jack Knave]

Theresa May has linked the general election to Brexit.

Not directly. It's a GE that she has called not a referendum.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Team GB, ( HaHa HaHa )

Tory smoke and mirrors, the poor get the smoke and the rich get the carnival mirrors to flaunt their wealth.

Mr Corbyn is dead in the water, a no hoper, very true, why? because of voters like me, Scottish voters who will turn their backs on the things we once held in the highest esteem, injustice, fighting for the poor, greed and that greatest of Scottish traditions fighting for the down trodden.

Dear Mr Corbyn,

Forgive this coward, but I have to vote SNP, England has set it stall, I hope that one day you can forgive this coward as I had no choice.

Gonnagle.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Looks to me she wants to coopt the British public as arse covering for a Shit Brexit so that we can all share the blame.

She doesn't know that that's not how it works since the British public are not going to blame themselves for a shit Brexit.

[jeremyp]

Well in electoral terms I suppose we're either at 1983 or 1987.

No, I think the situation is much worse than either of those two occasions. In '83 the Labour leader was painted as too radically left wing and, of course, there was the Falklands factor. There wasn't really any issue over Foot's competence (not that I remember anyway). '87 was the first general election I voted in. I think again, there was nothing wrong with the leader's competence. I think they lost because a lot of people felt they had done pretty well in the preceding four years under the Tories. In neither '83 nor '87 was there a wholesale clearing out of the top party members. In fact, in '87 even Kinnock survived in spite of losing.

The problem that Labour has today is rooted in the fact that anybody associated with Blair/Brown was too tainted to be considered as a future leader and yet all the best candidates for future leader were associated with Blair/Brown because, of course, the bet people would have been in their cabinets.

I'm pretty confident May has no Falklands factor

At the moment, it looks like she doesn't need one. Her lead in the opinion polls is 12-13% which is massive compared to any party leader in recent history, probably since pre-Iraq Blair.

or 2nd election momentum for a huge landslide as Blair or Thatcher did.

That will come down to what happens with Brexit.

A snap election after a Corbyn successor would have been a better prospect I would have thought.

Had she not called the election now, Corbyn would still have been the Labour leader in 2020. Whatever course of action she had chosen, May would always be fighting against Corbyn. The 2020 election would probably have come down to how well the Brexit negotiations will have gone and I think May has calculated she can do a better job of the negotiations with a larger majority.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Dear Team GB, ( HaHa HaHa )

Tory smoke and mirrors, the poor get the smoke and the rich get the carnival mirrors to flaunt their wealth.

Mr Corbyn is dead in the water, a no hoper, very true, why? because of voters like me, Scottish voters who will turn their backs on the things we once held in the highest esteem, injustice, fighting for the poor, greed and that greatest of Scottish traditions fighting for the down trodden.

Dear Mr Corbyn,

Forgive this coward, but I have to vote SNP, England has set it stall, I hope that one day you can forgive this coward as I had no choice.

Gonnagle.

'Twas Scotland who put the Tories into second place.

[jeremyp]

Not directly.

Sorry, wrong:

She accused Britain's other political parties of "game playing", adding that this risks "our ability to make a success of Brexit and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629603

It's a GE that she has called not a referendum.

Yes, a general election that Theresa May has directly linked to Brexit.

[Jack Knave]

Sorry, wrong:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629603
Yes, a general election that Theresa May has directly linked to Brexit.

The SNP linked Brexit to their Indyref2 before the referendum on it. May is saying that a strong government is needed to make Brexit outcome better and so comes after the fact.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

No, I think the situation is much worse than either of those two occasions. In '83 the Labour leader was painted as too radically left wing and, of course, there was the Falklands factor. There wasn't really any issue over Foot's competence (not that I remember anyway). '87 was the first general election I voted in. I think again, there was nothing wrong with the leader's competence. I think they lost because a lot of people felt they had done pretty well in the preceding four years under the Tories. In neither '83 nor '87 was there a wholesale clearing out of the top party members. In fact, in '87 even Kinnock survived in spite of losing.

The problem that Labour has today is rooted in the fact that anybody associated with Blair/Brown was too tainted to be considered as a future leader and yet all the best candidates for future leader were associated with Blair/Brown because, of course, the bet people would have been in their cabinets.
At the moment, it looks like she doesn't need one. Her lead in the opinion polls is 12-13% which is massive compared to any party leader in recent history, probably since pre-Iraq Blair.

That will come down to what happens with Brexit.
Had she not called the election now, Corbyn would still have been the Labour leader in 2020. Whatever course of action she had chosen, May would always be fighting against Corbyn. The 2020 election would probably have come down to how well the Brexit negotiations will have gone and I think May has calculated she can do a better job of the negotiations with a larger majority.

There is no credible golden future free of strikes and power cuts to preserve to appeal to and certainly no economic competence to appeal to.
As John Curtice has pointed out parties get less seats per percentage lead. I understand she's after a hundred lead that is nearly eight times the number of seats they got at the last election. If you are right and they get that then that can only be fear of Corbyn. Once he's gone watch support for May fall when shit Brexit takes hold. Were at tory highwater mark as the SNP were at their highwater mark a couple of years ago.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Vlad,

'Twas Scotland who put the Tories into second place.

Sorry no, Twas the Labour party sitting back on its fat arse and thinking that we Scots would gladly go on voting them into power, they thought, once a Labour supporter always a Labour supporter.

So my choice is easy, I could have a backbone and stand behind Mr Corbyn or I can take the cowards route and walkaway, hoping that one day Scotland once again proves that it is a world leader in the fight against injustice and poverty, I choose the cowards route and live in hope.

Gonnagle.

[jeremyp]

There is no credible golden future free of strikes and power cuts to preserve to appeal to and certainly no economic competence to appeal to.

Winning the miners' strike certainly helped in '87. However, May has got her equivalent to the miners' strike and The Falklands War all rolled into one. All she has to do is not fuck it up.

The problem for Labour is that there is no strong successor to Corbyn because they have all been sidelined. After '83 Labour had several potential strong candidates to replace Foot. After '92 they had several potential strong candidates to replace Kinnock. Tony Blair was pretty universally acclaimed at first, but we forget he was the second choice. I think John Smith would have been a Great prime minister.

Look at what we have now. Who in the PLP can claim to have the stature of Neil Kinnock, John Smith or early Tony Blair. Nobody. They're a bunch of useless twats who couldn't even get rid of the worst leader in Labour history.

As John Curtice has pointed out parties get less seats per percentage lead. I understand she's after a hundred lead that is nearly eight times the number of seats they got at the last election.

No. You mean, it is eight times the majority they got at the last election which is not nearly so difficult. Before the last election, opinion polls predicted a hung parliament. They don't now, and if the error goes in the same direction...

If you are right and they get that then that can only be fear of Corbyn. Once he's gone watch support for May fall when shit Brexit takes hold. Were at tory highwater mark as the SNP were at their highwater mark a couple of years ago.

I don't find anything to disagree with in this, except that Labour have nobody to replace Corbyn with.  I remember even Foot's Labour party giving Thatcher a pretty rough ride but Corbyn's mob have barely registered.

Also Theresa May's calculations are probably premised on the idea that she won't do a shit Brexit. I think she's deluded. You think she's deluded but she thinks she can do it, otherwise she would not have stood for the job.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Dear Vlad,

Sorry no, Twas the Labour party sitting back on its fat arse and thinking that we Scots would gladly go on voting them into power, they thought, once a Labour supporter always a Labour supporter.

So my choice is easy, I could have a backbone and stand behind Mr Corbyn or I can take the cowards route and walkaway, hoping that one day Scotland once again proves that it is a world leader in the fight against injustice and poverty, I choose the cowards route and live in hope.

Gonnagle.

Alas Mr G one Conservative MP will become 2 and then a nasty rash.

[Gordon]

Moderator:

This thread, which started prior to the announcement today, has unsurprisingly moved on to discussing the forthcoming General Election. Therefore, and to avoid a separate thread and retain the existing posts as the discussion progresses, we'll rename this one 'UK General Election 2017' and we'll 'sticky it' for the duration.

The thread will briefly disappear while we change the title.

Update: done

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting to see what if any effect the possibility of people campaigning while being subject to investigation for election fraud might have. There is a perfectly sensible theory that this was called to avoid a slow bleed of the majority to by elections being called because of the CPS.

[Anchorman]

Dear Team GB, ( HaHa HaHa )

Tory smoke and mirrors, the poor get the smoke and the rich get the carnival mirrors to flaunt their wealth.

Mr Corbyn is dead in the water, a no hoper, very true, why? because of voters like me, Scottish voters who will turn their backs on the things we once held in the highest esteem, injustice, fighting for the poor, greed and that greatest of Scottish traditions fighting for the down trodden.

Dear Mr Corbyn,

Forgive this coward, but I have to vote SNP, England has set it stall, I hope that one day you can forgive this coward as I had no choice.

Gonnagle.

-
I feel your pain.
There is simply nothing of the Labour party which was once famed for its' principles left.

[Robbie]

Yet....I feel I must vote Labour otherwise I'll be deserting a sinking ship. If enough of us make the effort, who knows what the result will be? My natural inclination is not to turn out to vote at all but that's defeatist.

[Anchorman]

At least we have two alternatives here - SNP and Green, both moderately centre left and committed to putting Scotland's cause first.