UK General Election 2017

[Nearly Sane]

Of course, a green vote in a FPTP system is essentially wasted, except in one seat, particularly a GE which is a de facto one issue.

[Anchorman]

Sadly, due to the inferior incompetant Westminster shambolic electoral system, I agree. Anyway, here's the Wee Ginger Dug's comment on the day's events....... https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2017/04/18/theresa-mays-erdogan-election/

[jeremyp]

Point of information:

Have the boundary commission changes come into effect yet?

[Ricky Spanish]

Just for the record, I'm a staunch Labour supporter, who had felt let down by the Party from around 1983 until recently.

I have read several times here things like: "Well that will be JC out of a job pretty soon!" "With Corbyn at the helm of Labour, I doubt they have a cat's chance in hell of winning the election." "Bye, Jeremy - you'll go down as the man who murdered Labour."

What exactly is it that you don't like/don't understand about his policies or are you just regurgitating what you read in the Tory run MSM?

[SqueakyVoice]

Point of information:

Have the boundary commission changes come into effect yet?

No, they aren't due until 2018.

http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/what-next-for-the-boundary-review/

[Aruntraveller]

What exactly is it that you don't like/don't understand about his policies or are you just regurgitating what you read in the Tory run MSM?

Except I am also a long time Labour supporter who has at various points felt let down by the party - but I have never before felt that they are completely incompetent, and that in my opinion is the issue.

Corbyn's policies for the most part are fine. But (and it's a bloody humungous but) he doesn't convince me that he can carry them out - and if he doesn't convince the likes of me then they don't stand a chance. And please don't accuse me of being in thrall to MSM because I am not, I am fully aware of the depths they will stoop to in order to further their narrative and agenda.

[Nearly Sane]

As noted yesterday, the fall out from the election expenses issue could certainly have been a worry.


https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-cps-considering-charges-against-over-30-people-including-tory-mps-over-expenses

[Aruntraveller]

John Crace in The Guardian sums up Dead-eyed Theresa's decision:


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/18/dead-eyed-theresa-may-puts-the-tories-interests-first

[Anchorman]

For what it's worth, and as an outsider, I think Corbyn is a decent man with principles. However he is unsuited for leadership - his record of revolting against the party whip simply invited his fellow members to do the same, and his inability to discipline them spoke volumes. Leading a herd of cats is a thankless task. His intelligent, somewhat gentle approach to PMQs may be a welcome change - but it simply doesn't go down well in a media obsessed age. He simply comes over as a well meaning bumbler - which belies a very sharp mind. That simply goes down like a lead ballon in the media - and I wish it were otherwise. Maybe his profile will shine through in the hustings - I genuinely wish his party well - south of the border, at any rate. Up here, we have Kezia Dugdale as Labour leader in Scotland. Oh, dear.........

[Nearly Sane]

I note the DM portraying elected representatives carrying out their manifesto commitments are 'Saboteurs' that need to be 'Crushed'. Mmmmm

[Aruntraveller]

I note the DM portraying elected representatives carrying out their manifesto commitments are 'Saboteurs' that need to be 'Crushed'. Mmmmm

Yes struck me as well.

Do you think they have perhaps forgotten how parliamentary democracy is supposed to work?

Still at least I can consider myself a saboteur now rather than a remoaner!

[Nearly Sane]

Yes struck me as well.

Do you think they have perhaps forgotten how parliamentary democracy is supposed to work?

Still at least I can consider myself a saboteur now rather than a remoaner!

To be fair, it was the Mail and it doesn't always hold with democracy but it wasn't so far from the tone of May's speech.

[Nearly Sane]

 'All their ferocity was turned outwards, against the enemies of the State, against foreigners, traitors, saboteurs, thought-criminals.'

[ProfessorDavey]

Point of information:

Have the boundary commission changes come into effect yet?

No.

[ProfessorDavey]

That's out of date now, the polls show the Tories with a 15-20 point lead.

Just because the Tories have a poll lead doesn't mean that the country isn't split down the middle. Don't forget that even in the recent polls the Tories are polling in the low 40%s so just on that basis the country is split.

But of course the main reason why the country is more split and fractured that at any time I can remember is because of Brexit - 10 months on from the referendum and the country is just as split as it was last June. Polling has shown no significant shift from the virtually 50:50 split in the vote - indeed if anything the difference has narrowed from the 51.9%:48.1% split in the actual referendum. Usually, once a decision is made there is a shift in favour of that decision, but there is no evidence of that in relation to Brexit - we remain as split as we were last year.

[ProfessorDavey]

How?

Because a 'softer' brexit is acceptable to more people than a hard one. I think this may well be the agenda here - effectively to shift the focus of brexit toward protection of the economy (clearly core Tory territory) and thereby use a general election victory as a mandate to negotiate a brexit that retains membership of the single market.

[Nearly Sane]

Because a 'softer' brexit is acceptable to more people than a hard one. I think this may well be the agenda here - effectively to shift the focus of brexit toward protection of the economy (clearly core Tory territory) and thereby use a general election victory as a mandate to negotiate a brexit that retains membership of the single market.

it could, though, lead to a larger grouping in the Tory party who are for Hard Brexit, since we don't know the opinions of those who might gain seats. A larger % block, even if May gets more numbers of soft Brexiteers, could cause more problems than might be imagined. I also wonder what the phrasing in the manifesto will be because there will be pressure from some to have hard Brexit explicit in it. Even with a fudge, which is the most likely thing, I would expect the language to at least acknowledge that hard Brexit is in some ways more than acceptable.

[Nearly Sane]

Currently the Manchester Gorton by election still scheduled to happen on 4th May, despite meaning that the elected MP cannot be sworn in or take their seat.

[ProfessorDavey]

it could, though, lead to a larger grouping in the Tory party who are for Hard Brexit, since we don't know the opinions of those who might gain seats. A larger % block, even if May gets more numbers of soft Brexiteers, could cause more problems than might be imagined. I also wonder what the phrasing in the manifesto will be because there will be pressure from some to have hard Brexit explicit in it. Even with a fudge, which is the most likely thing, I would expect the language to at least acknowledge that hard Brexit is in some ways more than acceptable.

The issue isn't necessarily the size of the blocks but their impact on a working majority. The current crop of Tory MPs were largely in favour of remain, but there is a hard core minority that are brexit including hard brexit. With a tiny working majority those small minority have a disproportionate effect as they can defeat the government.

I May ends up with a majority of 50 or 100, or even more, even if the numbers of hard brexiteers increases she can much more easily ignore them as they won't be able to derail the government. Think about the serial rebels against Blair - there were plenty of them (including Corbyn) but when you have a majority of 150 plus you can ignore them, as Blair did. Contrast that with Major's awkward squad who caused mayhem for him because his majority was so small.

Another interesting point is the selection of candidates. As there is very little time many consistencies will end up with a central party pick as there simply isn't enough time for proper local party selection processes. That will give May much more scope to ensure that candidates are of her persuasion, where there isn't a sitting Tory MP. I doubt she will be looking to fill her backbencher with hard brexiteers.

[Nearly Sane]

I think there is a substantial number of hard Brexiteers already there. If the % goes up substantially it effectively forms an opposition of its own and would be far greater than the number of rebels against Blair who benefitted from the opposite of May in having time to build loyalty and get people selected. I think you underestimate the ease of getting 'suitable' candidates in for suitable seats, and quite how complex working out what the correct seats will be in this unusual election. It's a bigger gamble than it might first appear.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think there is a substantial number of hard Brexiteers already there. If the % goes up substantially it effectively forms an opposition of its own and would be far greater than the number of rebels against Blair who benefitted from the opposite of May in having time to build loyalty and get people selected. I think you underestimate the ease of getting 'suitable' candidates in for suitable seats, and quite how complex working out what the correct seats will be in this unusual election. It's a bigger gamble than it might first appear.

I don't doubt it is a gamble.

Clearly May wants the outcome of the election to strengthen her brexit position - point is that I don't think we know what that position is yet. My gut suggests that she is a very reluctant hard brexiteer, and therefore that she feels that the election will strengthen her ability to shift to a softer brexit position. I may, of course, be completely wrong on this, but I would have thought that going to the country on a hard brexit manifesto is a very risky strategy, given that the last thing that 48% wanted was hard brexit and there is a big chunk of the 52% that aren't obsessed by immigration and see the economy as more important.

[Nearly Sane]

I don't disagree given that it creates a further risk for hard brexiteers but I also think the opportunity to get a big majority for other reasons attracted get, and the chance to have 5 more years. It jyst feels like a lot more of a gamble than it might have been as I think this is going to be an odd election. They could lose some soft Brexiteers to the Lib Dems but gain more hard Brexiteers.

[Nearly Sane]

I note that minutes before moving for a GE that isn't required, May urged the SNP to get on with the day job. Mmmmm

[ProfessorDavey]

I don't disagree given that it creates a further risk for hard brexiteers but I also think the opportunity to get a big majority for other reasons attracted get, and the chance to have 5 more years.

Indeed

It jyst feels like a lot more of a gamble than it might have been as I think this is going to be an odd election.

I agree.

They could lose some soft Brexiteers to the Lud Dems but gain more hard Brexiteers.

I think that is misunderstanding the issue. Firstly I doubt there is much correlation between the stance of existing Tory MPs and the leave/remain proportions of their constituency electorate. For example my own MP is a leaver, yet my constituency voted solidly to remain. Perhaps the most ardent Tory remainer (Anna Soubry) represents a constituency that voted solidly out. Voters won't get a choice of Tory in their constituency, just one.

Secondly the LibDems are likely to have the best chance of taking Tory seats in pro-remain areas where the sitting MP is a Leaver. We've already seen that in Richmond. And there are a good number of seats of that nature. So the effect of a LibDem recovery is likely to be a reduction in pro-brexit tories, not an increase.

[Nearly Sane]

Good points but I think given that the Tories will be standing on a manifesto to leave, unless the sitting MP is willing to say that they are going to rebel, their previous stance will be useless. So where there was a Remain Tory and a Remain Lib Dem in a marginal seat that is pro Remain , the Remain Tory may well lose because they will be committed to Brexit.