UK General Election 2017

[ProfessorDavey]

Part of isn't official language. You can make it mean what you like. We can still be part of something without all the silly rules, if that is what is agreed.

No you can't - we will either still be part of the single market (i.e. be a member) or we won't. The leave campaign said we would still be a part of (i.e. a member of) that free trade block - seems we won't be. They lied (as they did on so many other matters).

[Walt Zingmatilder]

BBC accusing Jeremy Corbyn of channeling Donald Trump.
I somehow don't think that gem from One of the By appointment rusty tromboners to the Conservatives will wash with non tories.

.........and I'm certain it won't be picked up by other media outlets who won't say ''Trump'' as if it was a bad thing.....Bad luck BBC.

[Nearly Sane]

So what?

Just that it's difficult riding two horses and facing both ways.

[jeremyp]

What exactly is it that you don't like/don't understand about his policies or are you just regurgitating what you read in the Tory run MSM?

It's not the policies that people don't like - well I don't like some of his policies - but the man's qualifications to run the country. He has proved himself utterly useless. The official opposition has had practically an open goal since the Brexit vote and they have done nothing. He's about as much use as a chocolate fireguard.

[jeremyp]

I don't doubt it is a gamble.

Clearly May wants the outcome of the election to strengthen her brexit position - point is that I don't think we know what that position is yet. My gut suggests that she is a very reluctant hard brexiteer, and therefore that she feels that the election will strengthen her ability to shift to a softer brexit position. I may, of course, be completely wrong on this, but I would have thought that going to the country on a hard brexit manifesto is a very risky strategy, given that the last thing that 48% wanted was hard brexit and there is a big chunk of the 52% that aren't obsessed by immigration and see the economy as more important.

She's actually a remainer. I think her calculation is that, soft Brexit is the most sane option still available  and the result of the election will strengthen her position to push that through. If 10% of her MPs would revel against a soft Brexit proposal now, she loses the vote. If she has a 100 seat majority and 10% rebel, she still wins.

Of course, it's a gamble, but, frankly, as things stand, it's hard Brexit. The election can't make it any worse.

[Nearly Sane]

Janey Godley's take on the election by 'dubbing' Ruth Davidson, Theresa May, and Nicola Sturgeon - NSFW


http://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/shes-turnt-mer-times-waltzer-12920480

[Walt Zingmatilder]

She's actually a remainer. I think her calculation is that, soft Brexit is the most sane option still available  and the result of the election will strengthen her position to push that through. If 10% of her MPs would revel against a soft Brexit proposal now, she loses the vote. If she has a 100 seat majority and 10% rebel, she still wins.

Of course, it's a gamble, but, frankly, as things stand, it's hard Brexit. The election can't make it any worse.

Theresa really the good guy coming good in the final reel? Is that credible?

[floo]

The ghastly Farage isn't going to stand as an MP at the election.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39651781?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

[jakswan]

She's actually a remainer. I think her calculation is that, soft Brexit is the most sane option still available  and the result of the election will strengthen her position to push that through. If 10% of her MPs would revel against a soft Brexit proposal now, she loses the vote. If she has a 100 seat majority and 10% rebel, she still wins.

Of course, it's a gamble, but, frankly, as things stand, it's hard Brexit. The election can't make it any worse.

When you say soft Brexit what do you mean? Staying in single market or free trade deal, there are degrees of soft.

[jakswan]

Only 11% of newspaper articles about Jeremy Corbyn fairly represent a single one of his actual policies. In the hard-right Daily Mail and Express that figure falls to 0%.

Here's an article outlining some of Corbyn's headline policies, so that you can judge for yourself whether you agree with them.

http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/how-many-of-jeremy-corbyns-policies-do.html?m=1

Also apple pie and mother love!

How is he going to fund these?

[ProfessorDavey]

When you say soft Brexit what do you mean? Staying in single market or free trade deal, there are degrees of soft.

Jeremy can speak for himself, but to me soft brexit means staying in the single market.

The notion of a trade deal is a red herring, as is the nonsense statement os 'access to the single market' - pretty well every country on the planet has access to the single market, the issue is on what terms and how unfavourable is that access compared to being a member.

The EU has negotiated free trade deals with all sorts of non EU countries, and has more in place than any other country (or group of countries on the planet I gather), yet none come close to being as good as being a member of the single market. There is often a focus on tariffs on goods, but actually these are fairly limited in effect, particularly for a service driven economy such as the UK. The key is the non tariff barriers, including those on services. And even with trade deals those non tariff barriers remain in place and will for the UK. Are you really claiming that the UK will be allowed to trade with the EU but ignore the EU regulations, for example being able to sell products in the EU without the CE mark. They won't, if they want to trade the UK will have to abide by EU regulation just as every other country does.

[Jack Knave]

No you can't - we will either still be part of the single market (i.e. be a member) or we won't. The leave campaign said we would still be a part of (i.e. a member of) that free trade block - seems we won't be. They lied (as they did on so many other matters).

You can be part of it via a free trade deal as Canada is/will be. I.e. not be subject to all the political project crap. We will be part of it via our bespoke trade deal with the EU.

[Ricky Spanish]

If you don’t think Jeremy Corbyn can win this election then you’re a Tory.

Now Theresa May has called a snap general election, we on the left have a fantastic opportunity ahead of us: to go forward, united as one, and finally expose who has been a secret Tory this whole time.

For there should be no doubt. If you’re unsure about Jeremy Corbyn, you are a Tory. You can say you still support Labour all you want, but if you don’t think he can beat Theresa May in June, the writing's on the wall, and it says: you are a paid-up member of the Conservative party.

So come forward, red Tories, and show yourselves. Prepare to be justly trolled. For it is time to be re-educated on why you’re wrong, and why Corbyn will triumph in June. For the traitors among you who don’t support him, feel free to disagree. It’s a free country, after all – unless you get your way, you Blairite scum.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-labour-criticism-general-election-2017-dont-support-him-you-are-a-tory-conservatives-a7692431.html

[ProfessorDavey]

You can be part of it via a free trade deal as Canada is/will be. I.e. not be subject to all the political project crap. We will be part of it via our bespoke trade deal with the EU.

Which will still involve very significant non tariff barriers, as is the case for Canada. We will be subject to all the regulations of the EU but won't be able to influence them, as is the case for Canada and every other country that has a free trade deal with the EU but isn't in the single market.

And we don't need to be part of the 'political project crap' (as you so charmingly call it) - last time I looked Switzerland, Norway and Iceland (all members of the single market) aren't subject to the political project of the EU. They do,. of course, need to sign up to the conditions of membership of the single market, but that goes without saying. If you are a member of a club, you need to abide by the club rule.

Problem for the UK is that if we exit the single market we won't be a member of the club (and won't get the benefits) but will still have to abide by most of the club rule in order to trade with the single market.

[Jack Knave]

Just that it's difficult riding two horses and facing both ways.

What I meant was so what about it being a problem for the non remain Tories. What are they going to do about it? They can't stop Farron from trying!

[ProfessorDavey]

What I meant was so what about it being a problem for the non remain Tories. What are they going to do about it? They can't stop Farron from trying!

I doubt that there are many Leave voting Tories who would contemplate voting LibDem anyway, given their clear and obvious stance on Europe.

[Jack Knave]

Theresa really the good guy coming good in the final reel? Is that credible?

I think Jeremy has a point. She's out to please as many voters for 2022 as she can.

[Jack Knave]

Jeremy can speak for himself, but to me soft brexit means staying in the single market.

The notion of a trade deal is a red herring, as is the nonsense statement os 'access to the single market' - pretty well every country on the planet has access to the single market, the issue is on what terms and how unfavourable is that access compared to being a member.

Doesn't matter as much as you imply as we can have trade deals, on our terms not the EU's, with the rest of the world. So our deal with the EU is a little less but we gain by engaging with the world - swings and roundabouts.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think Jeremy has a point. She's out to please as many voters for 2022 as she can.

Frankly I am at a loss to know what she thinks.

My gut instinct, largely based on the fact that she actually supported remain (albeit was virtually invisible) is that hard brexit is anathema to her. Also going for soft brexit makes political sense, as she can begin to attract the 48% (providing the least worst brexit option) as well as hoovering up large swathes of the 52% (albeit losing a few hard brexit ideological extremist nutters, but she doesn't need those anyhow).

But so far she seems hell-bent on either hard brexit (out of single market customs union) or bonkers brexit (the former plus no deal).

There may, off course be a cute game going on here - in that she talks hard brexit, well knowing that achieving a deal in the time frame is completely impossible and therefore interim arrangements will be necessary. Clearly those interim arrangements will need to be 'off the peg' rather than 'bespoke' and the most obvious will be a Norway-type model. This will be sold as just a transitional arrangement, but no-one will ever get around to moving beyond it. And voters will ave lost the appetite to fight on the basis that in 2019 brexit will be delivered (i.e. we will no longer be a member of the EU, and there won't be another election until 2022 by which point we will have got used to being like Norway and the agenda will have moved on to other matters.

[ProfessorDavey]

Doesn't matter as much as you imply as we can have trade deals, on our terms not the EU's, with the rest of the world. So our deal with the EU is a little less but we gain by engaging with the world - swings and roundabouts.

Of course it matters.

Firstly because the EU represent roughly half of our foreign trade.

Secondly because the moment we leave the EU (unless we remain in the single market) we instantly lose the benefit of all the trade deals the EU has signed with other countries (more than any other trading block), so straight away we are playing catch up.

Thirdly trade deals take years to negotiate, even if there is a willingness to do so, leading to ...

Fourthly, outside the EU the UK is a far less attractive trade partner than inside the EU. This means we won't be at the front of the queue as countries will be looking to the biggest economies to do deals with - e.g. EU, USA, China etc, not the UK. And as a less attractive trade partner we will almost certainly get a worse deal that we already do in the EU (for those many countries that already have deals with the EU) or that we would have done in the EU (for countries that are looking at trade deals with the EU and also may consider one with the UK outside of the EU).

Wake up and smell the coffee, or perhaps we should call you PollyAnna rather than Jack Knave.

[Jack Knave]

Which will still involve very significant non tariff barriers, as is the case for Canada. We will be subject to all the regulations of the EU but won't be able to influence them, as is the case for Canada and every other country that has a free trade deal with the EU but isn't in the single market.

And we don't need to be part of the 'political project crap' (as you so charmingly call it) - last time I looked Switzerland, Norway and Iceland (all members of the single market) aren't subject to the political project of the EU. They do,. of course, need to sign up to the conditions of membership of the single market, but that goes without saying. If you are a member of a club, you need to abide by the club rule.

Problem for the UK is that if we exit the single market we won't be a member of the club (and won't get the benefits) but will still have to abide by most of the club rule in order to trade with the single market.

What's a non tariff barriers? If there is no tariff then there is no barrier!

More stupid comments from you lot!!!  I've explained before, people trading with anyone else has to keep to their rules. So the EU will have to keep to our rules if they want to trade with us and they will have no influence on those rules.

If they are members of the single market (and from what I gather Switzerland isn't as they are not obliged to free movement) they are pretty much "in" as they have to abide by the ECJ rulings; which Canada won't.

As for your last bit....blah,blah,blah........

[ProfessorDavey]

What's a non tariff barriers? If there is no tariff then there is no barrier!

Frankly if you don't understand what a 'non tariff' barrier is then there really isn't much point in discussing the matter with you seeing as you are woefully ignorant on the matter.

But let me give a couple of examples:

If I have to demonstrate that my product has to meet certain environmental standard or it may not be sold in a country that is a non tariff barrier.

If when bidding for a contract to provide a service I must demonstrate that my organisation adheres to certain employment rights and practices, that is a non tariff barrier.

If I have to provide labelling on packaging that are defined by the country where I want to sell my produce, that is a non tariff barrier to trade.

[Jack Knave]

Frankly I am at a loss to know what she thinks.

My gut instinct, largely based on the fact that she actually supported remain (albeit was virtually invisible) is that hard brexit is anathema to her. Also going for soft brexit makes political sense, as she can begin to attract the 48% (providing the least worst brexit option) as well as hoovering up large swathes of the 52% (albeit losing a few hard brexit ideological extremist nutters, but she doesn't need those anyhow).

But so far she seems hell-bent on either hard brexit (out of single market customs union) or bonkers brexit (the former plus no deal).

There may, off course be a cute game going on here - in that she talks hard brexit, well knowing that achieving a deal in the time frame is completely impossible and therefore interim arrangements will be necessary. Clearly those interim arrangements will need to be 'off the peg' rather than 'bespoke' and the most obvious will be a Norway-type model. This will be sold as just a transitional arrangement, but no-one will ever get around to moving beyond it. And voters will ave lost the appetite to fight on the basis that in 2019 brexit will be delivered (i.e. we will no longer be a member of the EU, and there won't be another election until 2022 by which point we will have got used to being like Norway and the agenda will have moved on to other matters.

Yeah, pretty much. She's a soft remainer and a soft brexit (as defined by "you lot") would be an acceptable deal for her; but she needs the hardliners side-lined.

[Jack Knave]

Of course it matters.

Firstly because the EU represent roughly half of our foreign trade.

Secondly because the moment we leave the EU (unless we remain in the single market) we instantly lose the benefit of all the trade deals the EU has signed with other countries (more than any other trading block), so straight away we are playing catch up.

Thirdly trade deals take years to negotiate, even if there is a willingness to do so, leading to ...

Fourthly, outside the EU the UK is a far less attractive trade partner than inside the EU. This means we won't be at the front of the queue as countries will be looking to the biggest economies to do deals with - e.g. EU, USA, China etc, not the UK. And as a less attractive trade partner we will almost certainly get a worse deal that we already do in the EU (for those many countries that already have deals with the EU) or that we would have done in the EU (for countries that are looking at trade deals with the EU and also may consider one with the UK outside of the EU).

Wake up and smell the coffee, or perhaps we should call you PollyAnna rather than Jack Knave.

All that is trumped by 1) the political project is a mill around everybody's neck, 2) the EU is dying (even those at the centre of the monster have aired grave concerns over it) and 3) though it will be choppy for us in the short term in the long term we will be better off, as the EU sinks to the bottom of the ocean.

With regards to 2) the EU's share of the world's GDP is dropping year on year. It's a dead parrot. It only looks alive because it has been nailed to its perch.

[Jack Knave]

Frankly if you don't understand what a 'non tariff' barrier is then there really isn't much point in discussing the matter with you seeing as you are woefully ignorant on the matter.

But let me give a couple of examples:

If I have to demonstrate that my product has to meet certain environmental standard or it may not be sold in a country that is a non tariff barrier.

If when bidding for a contract to provide a service I must demonstrate that my organisation adheres to certain employment rights and practices, that is a non tariff barrier.

If I have to provide labelling on packaging that are defined by the country where I want to sell my produce, that is a non tariff barrier to trade.

But that is true for everyone, even the EU. So what is your point?

The EU has to keep to US rules etc. if it wants to trade with the US.