UK General Election 2017

[jakswan]

She has a stance?
Once the 'Brexit fears' come out of the closet after Theresa is set though Jack and the Dear leader cannot allay them we shall see what support she has. Don't you think people are voting tory locally for political favours and to avoid vindictive treatment rather than out of any great love for that party?

It's shit or bust time soon for the Right.

I think people are voting Conservative because the best deal can only be negotiated by that party. Hard line remainers will vote for LibDem, other remainers will also go Tory, a lot of people I know voted remain but they just want to get on with it now.

Unless you think Dianne Abbot might be the best person for the job?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I think people are voting Conservative because the best deal can only be negotiated by that party. Hard line remainers will vote for LibDem, other remainers will also go Tory, a lot of people I know voted remain but they just want to get on with it now.

Unless you think Dianne Abbot might be the best person for the job?

Dianne Abbott has absolutely no chance of getting near Downing Street.
That is not true for May.
What is the best deal Jack? And is the best deal also possibly a shit deal. Is it awful or will it be fucking dreadful?
And are we going to be fobbed of by a shite deal and a ''well imagine what it would have been like under Dianne Abbott?''

Whatever deal Labour could get it would be fairer. May is angling after a blitz spirit but without coupons or emergency coalition or even the economic equivalent of an Anderson shelter. People will be expected to run outside and catch doodlebugs.
What is it we are supposed getting on with Jack? You have never answered that because you don't know.

''For God's sake just get on with it'' sounds like something a Turkey might say as it puts it's neck on the block before Christmas...coming from you.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think people are voting Conservative because the best deal can only be negotiated by that party. Hard line remainers will vote for LibDem, other remainers will also go Tory, a lot of people I know voted remain but they just want to get on with it now.

Unless you think Dianne Abbot might be the best person for the job?

What is interesting is looking at the projected national vote share using the voting on Thursday as a guide. This is commonly done from local elections, which are never held throughout the country.

That suggests that the votes on Thursday projected across the whole country give (change from 2015 general election in brackets):

Tory 38% (+2)
Labour 27% (-3)
LibDem 18% (+10)
UKIP 5% (-8)

Normal usual caveats apply, particularly that people may vote differently in a general election than a local one. But Thursday wasn't actually all that stunning for the tories in terms of votes - certainly not close the poll predictions of high 40's.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

The tories have to suppress the question ''What is best brexit deal''? between now and the eighth.

It's down to Keunnsberg, Robinson, Mair, Humphries, Webb, Marr, and Pesto i'm afraid.

[wigginhall]

There seem to be two options - third country status (which I suppose counts as 'hard' Brexit), and remaining in EEA.   The second is presumably impossible now for Mrs May, while the fomer threatens exports, since it will involve customs checks, which can be very complex, e.g. checks on country of origin of goods, food checks in special inspection offices, and so on. 

But Mrs May seems to be talking about a kind of hybrid, that is, her 'frictionless' trade, without free movement.   At the moment, the EU seem unlikely to accept this.   But maybe down the road, there will be some compromise.  No doubt  the City and business in general do not want third country status.  Maybe also smoke and mirrors can achieve something, a kind of EEA status which is not called that.   

[jakswan]

Dianne Abbott has absolutely no chance of getting near Downing Street.
That is not true for May.
What is the best deal Jack? And is the best deal also possibly a shit deal. Is it awful or will it be fucking dreadful?
And are we going to be fobbed of by a shite deal and a ''well imagine what it would have been like under Dianne Abbott?''

Whatever deal Labour could get it would be fairer. May is angling after a blitz spirit but without coupons or emergency coalition or even the economic equivalent of an Anderson shelter. People will be expected to run outside and catch doodlebugs.
What is it we are supposed getting on with Jack? You have never answered that because you don't know.

''For God's sake just get on with it'' sounds like something a Turkey might say as it puts it's neck on the block before Christmas...coming from you.

Deal will be free trade agreement and freedom of movement of labour.

She would not have got that through will a small minority because of a number of hard right tories. These will be irrelevant if she gets 70+ majority.c8

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Deal will be free trade agreement and freedom of movement of labour.

She would not have got that through will a small minority because of a number of hard right tories. These will be irrelevant if she gets 70+ majority.c8

Citation please.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Deal will be free trade agreement and freedom of movement of labour.

She would not have got that through will a small minority because of a number of hard right tories. These will be irrelevant if she gets 70+ majority.c8

Not if that majority are hard right tories, Jak.

[ProfessorDavey]

Not if that majority are hard right tories, Jak.

I hope that Jakswan is right, but I fear not.

I think the sneaky way to achieve this is via a 'transitional agreement' which actually becomes permanent, in part because everyone loses the will to engage is ongoing, protracted and hugely difficult agreements. So we become like Norway in the transitional arrangement (because it will have to be something pretty well 'off the shelf') perhaps with a nominal 5 year horizon for a further final agreement. But by 2024 when the transitional deal should end we will have a new government, the country will have moved on and priorities will be elsewhere.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I hope that Jakswan is right, but I fear not.

I think the sneaky way to achieve this is via a 'transitional agreement' which actually becomes permanent, in part because everyone loses the will to engage is ongoing, protracted and hugely difficult agreements. So we become like Norway in the transitional arrangement (because it will have to be something pretty well 'off the shelf') perhaps with a nominal 5 year horizon for a further final agreement. But by 2024 when the transitional deal should end we will have a new government, the country will have moved on and priorities will be elsewhere.

Yes but Brexit has the air of an aimless disgruntled revolution about it ( and the more mired we are in it the more aimless it becomes. I'm just wondering whether a la the French revolution we will have a grand fear, a great terror, a Napolean and then a louis Phillipe eventually reaching some type of prosperity and social regeneration at the Fin de seicle. Such a situation would suit the Conservatives I would have thought because as a clock rewinding mechanism to the days of laisse faire it fits the bill.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Mrs May is OK and clear to give nothing away while the BBC think the main thing in this election is the opposition.
What people need to focus on is do they actually want a hard brexit or not. Yes Corbyn is a huge gamble but then so is May and since 2016 for an electorate prepared to f*** itself up the sh****r economically and royally then the normal reasonable reasons for ''not labour'' no longer wash.

[wigginhall]

Your point about aimlessness is interesting, Vlad, as probably many people don't really know what Brexit means.   But this enables Mrs May to triumph as a sort of queen of not knowing - well, politicians often do that.   Eventually, it will become more specific, and I would think that most people will be totally bored by then.   As Prof. Davey says, a transitional arrangement may just carry on and on and on ...

I don't think there will be terror, but I hope the Tory govt does not butcher more of the welfare state.    One can only hope that Mrs May retains some element of the one-nation Tory mindset.  Our local surgery, police station, library, post office, have closed, and this is in London.   

[Nearly Sane]

Tory plan for NHS crisis?


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-candidate-claimed-healed-deaf-10356548

[Rhiannon]

I tried to link to this story the other day and got the forbidden thing.

[Nearly Sane]

Watched John McDonnell's speech at Docklands yesterday and thought it was a very good speech covering lots of important areas. It will probably be missed in all the othering of 'is he a Marxist'.

[Rhiannon]

It's a feature of this election and modern politics. Put labels on people (Marxist, evangelical) and you can dismiss them.

[jakswan]

Watched John McDonnell's speech at Docklands yesterday and thought it was a very good speech covering lots of important areas. It will probably be missed in all the othering of 'is he a Marxist'.

Yes that a potential future chancellor was a Marxist and wanted to bring down capitalism isn't really at all relevant. What a sorry state Labour are in, the sooner the centre-left get a grip and come back the better, until then the worse it is for all of us.

[jakswan]

Citation please.

It an opinion no citation required.

[wigginhall]

Watched John McDonnell's speech at Docklands yesterday and thought it was a very good speech covering lots of important areas. It will probably be missed in all the othering of 'is he a Marxist'.

I think Labour have been wrecked by globalization.  I mean, Old Labour had a kind of 'capitalism with benefits' menu, which sort of worked, until Callaghan pronounced doom on Keynes.   After that, it was chaos, until Blair moved to the right, and embraced globalization.   This seemed to work for a bit, until the Big Squelch (capitalism always bites you on the bum).   And now, what narrative?  I will be interested in Macron, as he seems to be Blair-like.   

In both countries, it seems that globalization has hollowed out industrial towns, leading to a kind of populist revolt.   Gordon Brown used to talk about taming globalization, not sure how. 

Damn, I had better read Varoufakis' new book, too long!

[Nearly Sane]

Yes that a potential future chancellor was a Marxist and wanted to bring down capitalism isn't really at all relevant. What a sorry state Labour are in, the sooner the centre-left get a grip and come back the better, until then the worse it is for all of us.

So because you use a label to mean what you want it to mean we can ignore what McDonnell says he would do? What in his speech at the Docklands did you disagree with and why?

[Nearly Sane]

Surely this us a much more constructive approach than the fitness to work stuff?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-disability-policy-wca-work-capability-assessment-fit-to-work-tests-scrap-jeremy-corbyn-debbie-a7331571.html

[Nearly Sane]

Could be interesting.


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/prosecutors-reveal-theyll-charge-up-10382571#ICID=sharebar_twitter

[Ricky Spanish]

The EU pushed and she pushed back, I'm a cynic so I think the timing of this was very convenient.

Maybe we should have an election see if the public will support her stance, oh wait that is exactly what is happening.

Eh? That issue on the website you linked to.
"Leave means to leave. We will not let the UK block the future of the EU27 (security union) or even change it (Turkish EU membership)."

You can have a customs border without an actual hard border.

I've just realised why I don't respond to your diatribes... They are like watching a hot air balloon collapse, most of them are self-deflating!!

Back in the real world though I hear that Labour actually lost half as many seats in the locals as the Selfservatives...  What?

Despite the huge attention paid to the performance of Jeremy Corbyn’s party, the Conservatives actually suffered a net loss of more than twice as many council seats as Labour, the final local election results have revealed.

With all but one of 124 contested councils having finally declared their results, it can be revealed that the Tories are down 47 seats compared to 18 for Labour.... Nationally, with results from 123 out of 124 contested councils now in, the Conservatives have 828 seats, down 47 from before Thursday’s local government elections.

Labour, by contrast, have 1,289 seats and are down only 18.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-elections-2016-results-in-full-council-seats-conservative-tory-labour-jeremy-corbyn-a7019041.html

Where did that come from??

[Udayana]

...
Where did that come from??

Last years results?

[jeremyp]

Last years results?

Considering the story is dated May 2016, that seems a plausible theory.