Author Topic: UK General Election 2017  (Read 114095 times)

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #700 on: May 29, 2017, 06:50:49 PM »
Since 7/7 there have been three successful terrorist attacks which, to me suggests that the security services have been pretty successful. There's no such thing as perfect protection from terrorism - suicide bombers in particular - you have to accept that occasionally you will fail. Then you must learn from your mistakes and start again. What you shouldn't do is go round claiming our security services are not fit for purpose. That kind of panic is useless and even counter productive.
I have never said they aren't fit for purpose. But we have to ask questions.

This attack is different to most of the other terrorist attacks that 'slipped through the net', such as the Westminster bridge attack and the Jo Cox murder. In those cases the perpetrators were (as far as I'm aware) not known to the security services, were very much under the radar, and acted alone or in a pair using very unsophisticated or readily available weaponry. Under those circumstances it is understandably exceptionally difficult for the security services to prevent a determined attacker.

The Manchester bombing is entirely different - clearly an established network, with the key perpetrator known to the security services and on their 'watch list'. And hardly under the radar - he seems to have almost been waving a flag saying 'I'm a potential threat' - indeed there are reports that he literally did that - wave a flag outside his house in support of Islamist extremists.

So I didn't have concerns about failures to detect and prevent in the Westminster bridge attack and the Jo Cox terrorist attacks. I do have concerns over this one.

I think it is perfectly legitimate to ask why the security services failed to prevent this attack, and to do so does not spread panic, but recognises that sometimes challenging questions have to be asked and unless they are we won't be able to keep people in Britain as safe as they could be.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 06:55:07 PM by ProfessorDavey »

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #701 on: May 29, 2017, 06:53:16 PM »
Since 7/7 there have been three successful terrorist attacks which, to me suggests that the security services have been pretty successful. There's no such thing as perfect protection from terrorism - suicide bombers in particular - you have to accept that occasionally you will fail. Then you must learn from your mistakes and start again. What you shouldn't do is go round claiming our security services are not fit for purpose. That kind of panic is useless and even counter productive.

Pointing out failings seems less panic-ky to me, then arguing we shouldn't point out failings. Worse to me here is not so much any issues with the reporting as they may be mistakes as you note but rather that we have a habitual policy for the last few years of supporting the enemy of our enemy in the naive and foolish assumption that they are or might remain our friend. It would appear in the case of the murderer in Manchester that we may have been supportive of the radicalization because it would make him the enemy of our enemy. This sort of realpolitik would be bad enough ethically if we were good at it.

I note that jakswan talked earlier of 9/11 happening without intervention in Afghanistan, which is odd given our one onetime support of Osama Bin Laden.

jeremyp

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #702 on: May 29, 2017, 07:32:36 PM »

I think it is perfectly legitimate to ask why the security services failed to prevent this attack,
Not just legitimate but required.

Quote
and to do so does not spread panic,
That depends on how you ask the question. If you start by saying the security services are not fit for purpose, you might induce panic.

If you call for heads on plates every time something like this happens, you encourage overly cautious behaviour. The police chief will say no to a public gathering simply because the consequences of something going wrong are fatal to his career. Even worse, there will be CYA behaviour which will make it harder to understand mistakes and correct them.

Quote
but recognises that sometimes challenging questions have to be asked and unless they are we won't be able to keep people in Britain as safe as they could be.
There's a trade off between personal freedom and personal safety. If I want to live in a society where I don't have to account for my every movement or every post I make on line, or every web page I download, I have to accept it comes with a  slight cost to my personal safety.
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jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #703 on: May 29, 2017, 07:33:26 PM »
What has anything that  Sturgeon,  Trump or King Dial the best dressed man in Barbados got to do with May's lie?

A lie is to say something that you know to be untrue, changing your mind is something else. The social policy u-turn was a lie, changing her mind on an election I do not think was.
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jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #704 on: May 29, 2017, 07:35:28 PM »

In the same sense as a butterfly's wing wave contributes to a hurricane. In a FPTP election, your voting for the PM in most constituencies is a factual error.

When there are millions of voters that applies to every election. Again I was basing my vote on the fact that I used to think May would be the better leader, I'm now basing it on who I think has the best policies, Labour.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #705 on: May 29, 2017, 07:38:53 PM »
A lie is to say something that you know to be untrue, changing your mind is something else. The social policy u-turn was a lie, changing her mind on an election I do not think was.
Then she was incompetent, as well as acting for purely party political reasons, in calling an election that is a waste of time and money.

BTW how is that an answer to the question in the post you replied to?

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #706 on: May 29, 2017, 07:42:08 PM »
When there are millions of voters that applies to every election. Again I was basing my vote on the fact that I used to think May would be the better leader, I'm now basing it on who I think has the best policies, Labour.
Except there aren't millions of votes in each constituency in FPTP and the total number of votes is not generally even known by people or used by people in arguing for anything. As I asked earlier if I wanted Corbyn to be PM but was in a constituency that was between the Lib Dems and the Tories, who should I vote for?
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 07:46:05 PM by Nearly Sane »

jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #707 on: May 29, 2017, 07:43:42 PM »
So you are accepting that there is a role (and therefore a responsibility) of MI5 to prevent crime of this sort. In which case you seem to be agreeing with my point above. And if there have been failures on the part of the security services (and I think most people accept there have, as the bomber was known to the security services) then it is perfectly reasonable to ask questions (which is being done as there is a review announced). And that review shouldn't focus solely on the security services and police, but also on their ultimate 'masters' - the government, specifically as to whether the inability to track the terrorist following warnings from the public was linked to lack of resources.

I think a review is fine. With regard to lack of resources for MI5, I've not heard that raised, curious why other parties have not raised it either, I presume because they do not think it is an issue.
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jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #708 on: May 29, 2017, 07:47:02 PM »
Then she was incompetent, as well as acting for purely party political reasons, in calling an election that is a waste of time and money.

BTW how is that an answer to the question in the post you replied to?

You were claiming May lied with regard to election, I think she changed her mind. There were 13 votes against the snap election.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
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jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #709 on: May 29, 2017, 07:47:41 PM »
Except there aren't millions of votes in each constituency in FPTP and the total number of votes is not generally even known by people or used by people in arguing for anything. As I asked earlier if I wanted Corbyn to be PM but was in a constituency that was between the Lib Dems and the Tories, who should I vote for?

It is your vote you decide.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #710 on: May 29, 2017, 07:50:36 PM »
You were claiming May lied with regard to election, I think she changed her mind. There were 13 votes against the snap election.
And none of that is an answer to the question in the post you were replying to either.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #711 on: May 29, 2017, 07:53:01 PM »
It is your vote you decide.
It's a hypothetical vote using the generic you/one, which reminds me you didn't answer the earlier question about your use of you in your post where you used the phrase 'you love Corbyn...', would it be possible for to pick that up?
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 07:55:53 PM by Nearly Sane »

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #712 on: May 29, 2017, 08:09:30 PM »
I think a review is fine. With regard to lack of resources for MI5, I've not heard that raised, curious why other parties have not raised it either, I presume because they do not think it is an issue.
Prevention of terrorism required coordinated action by a range of agencies, crucially including the police. There has been concern raised that cuts to police numbers was making their job in preventing terrorism more difficult. Indeed this point was raised at the Police Federation’s annual conference in 2015, directly to Theresa May - then Home Secretary:

http://metro.co.uk/2017/05/25/theresa-may-accused-police-of-scaremongering-over-spending-cuts-6660878/

Scroll down and watch the video of an officer from the Greater Manchester police stating that the loss of community policing meant that on the ground intelligence necessary for prevention of terrorism was become almost non-existent due to police cuts.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #713 on: May 29, 2017, 10:38:15 PM »

If I was in charge of the Tory campaign, I would be crying at this sort of thing. In most cases this would just be tomorrow's chip papers, or reclaimed bytes but it's not good timing. No doubt there was no malice but this is idiocy.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-2017-ann-myatt-jo-cox-batley-spen-nobodys-been-shot-yet-joke-hustings-conservatives-tories-a7761981.html

jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #714 on: May 30, 2017, 06:57:09 AM »
Pointing out failings seems less panic-ky to me, then arguing we shouldn't point out failings. Worse to me here is not so much any issues with the reporting as they may be mistakes as you note but rather that we have a habitual policy for the last few years of supporting the enemy of our enemy in the naive and foolish assumption that they are or might remain our friend. It would appear in the case of the murderer in Manchester that we may have been supportive of the radicalization because it would make him the enemy of our enemy. This sort of realpolitik would be bad enough ethically if we were good at it.

I note that jakswan talked earlier of 9/11 happening without intervention in Afghanistan, which is odd given our one onetime support of Osama Bin Laden.

That was with regard to foreign policy having an effect on the terrorists, the left argue it has everything to do with foreign policy and nothing to do with Islam, the right argue it has everything to do with Islam and nothing to do with foreign policy.

JC Andrew Neil interview: No, it’s not Islam at all.
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jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #715 on: May 30, 2017, 06:58:34 AM »
And none of that is an answer to the question in the post you were replying to either.

You claimed that May lied with regard to election, I think she changed her mind, which is not lying. Do you still think she lied with regard to election?
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
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jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #716 on: May 30, 2017, 07:00:08 AM »
It's a hypothetical vote using the generic you/one, which reminds me you didn't answer the earlier question about your use of you in your post where you used the phrase 'you love Corbyn...', would it be possible for to pick that up?

It was hypothetical, a person might vote Labour because they love JC, or because they like the Labour policies, or because they like their local candidate.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
- Voltaire

jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #717 on: May 30, 2017, 07:04:05 AM »
Prevention of terrorism required coordinated action by a range of agencies, crucially including the police. There has been concern raised that cuts to police numbers was making their job in preventing terrorism more difficult. Indeed this point was raised at the Police Federation’s annual conference in 2015, directly to Theresa May - then Home Secretary:

http://metro.co.uk/2017/05/25/theresa-may-accused-police-of-scaremongering-over-spending-cuts-6660878/

Scroll down and watch the video of an officer from the Greater Manchester police stating that the loss of community policing meant that on the ground intelligence necessary for prevention of terrorism was become almost non-existent due to police cuts.

The police are not a political party, I've checked Labour manifesto, no mention of terrorism with regard to increase in Police numbers.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
- Voltaire

Sriram

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #718 on: May 30, 2017, 07:25:52 AM »


So...if May loses this election...what are the options for Brexit? Withdraw the application? Another referendum?!!!

Sriram

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #719 on: May 30, 2017, 07:48:06 AM »

Corbyn and May are grilled on TV.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40088180

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #720 on: May 30, 2017, 07:48:53 AM »
The police are not a political party, I've checked Labour manifesto, no mention of terrorism with regard to increase in Police numbers.
And there was me thinking that Labour had committed in their manifesto to increase police numbers by 10,000 with a focus on community policing, exactly the type of policing that is critical to countering radicalisation and gaining the intelligence necessary to counter terrorism.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #721 on: May 30, 2017, 09:23:30 AM »

So...if May loses this election...what are the options for Brexit? Withdraw the application? Another referendum?!!!
Again, it isn't a Presidential election. What would happen next would be dependent on the numbers of MPs. Currently it is both Tory AND Labour policy to proceed with Brexit though the negotiations would likely take a different path if Labour were to form a govt.

Note it could well be possible for the Tories to lose their majority and still be by far the largest party in which case they would be asked to form a govt. They would, this time, probably be unable to form a coalition with the Lib Dems because of Brexit, and couldn't form one with Labour or the SNP for a multitude of reasons. The only parties they could naturally ally with would be the Ulster Unionists and that would likely be enough in most things.


It should be noted that even on current polling numbers they are likely to get a majority and a functioning one at that. It might be seen as problematic for May's future if the majority is the same size or less as the entire election would have been a waste of time even for the narrow party reasons it was called.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2017, 09:34:11 AM by Nearly Sane »

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #722 on: May 30, 2017, 09:48:11 AM »
Note it could well be possible for the Tories to lose their majority and still be by far the largest party in which case they would be asked to form a govt.
Indeed - the Tories would have to do catastrophically to fail to be the largest party. Prior to dissolution the Tories held 331 seats, compared to 229 for Labour.

Yet, in a deeply dishonest manner the Tories have a (gone viral) video out claiming that 'This man (i.e. Corbyn) is only 6 seats away from being Prime Minister'.

If Corbyn gained 6 seats from the Tories Labour would be on 235 seats and the Tories 325 - under those circumstance it is almost certain that the Tories would form the next government.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #723 on: May 30, 2017, 09:59:27 AM »
Indeed - the Tories would have to do catastrophically to fail to be the largest party. Prior to dissolution the Tories held 331 seats, compared to 229 for Labour.

Yet, in a deeply dishonest manner the Tories have a (gone viral) video out claiming that 'This man (i.e. Corbyn) is only 6 seats away from being Prime Minister'.

If Corbyn gained 6 seats from the Tories Labour would be on 235 seats and the Tories 325 - under those circumstance it is almost certain that the Tories would form the next government.
Indeed, the only way for that not to happen in that case would be for some Tories to resign the whip and function as independents in a bizarre rainbow coalition. I would suspect that the Tories would need to lose at least 35 seats directly to Labour for there to be any real chance, and even then a slim one, of an alternative govt.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2017, 10:09:03 AM by Nearly Sane »

Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #724 on: May 30, 2017, 10:20:44 AM »
Indeed, the only way for that not to happen in that case would be for some Tories to resign the whip and function as independents in a bizarre rainbow coalition. I would suspect that the Tories would need to lose at least 35 seats directly to Labour for there to be any real chance, and even then a slim one, of an alternative govt.
We're fucked then.