UK General Election 2017

[Nearly Sane]

ICM poll has 96 Tory majority, which makes the YouGov poll look barmy, and out of step.

My guess is 365 Tories, pretty much in line.

[ProfessorDavey]

ICM poll has 96 Tory majority, which makes the YouGov poll look barmy, and out of step.

The polling companies have fallen into 2 camps.

In the 'blue' corner are ICM and ComRes, both of whom are continuing to show major Tory leads, albeit somewhat down from the early (pre Tory manifesto launch) part of the campaign. So their final polls have Tory leads of 10-12%.

In the 'red' corner are YouGov, Survation, SurveyMonkey, Orb with Tory leads of between 3-6%.

One group (or even both) are going to be looking pretty foolish come Friday morning.

[jakswan]

And if it is the leadership of a destroyed party, that is never going recover, that is a win in what way?

Five years no reason they could not win.

[jakswan]

The polling companies have fallen into 2 camps.

In the 'blue' corner are ICM and ComRes, both of whom are continuing to show major Tory leads, albeit somewhat down from the early (pre Tory manifesto launch) part of the campaign. So their final polls have Tory leads of 10-12%.

In the 'red' corner are YouGov, Survation, SurveyMonkey, Orb with Tory leads of between 3-6%.

One group (or even both) are going to be looking pretty foolish come Friday morning.

Depends on two things, turnout of youth vote who seem to love Corbyn, and older gen if they will actually not vote Tory, have listened to a few phone-in type programmes where the older gen would say things like 'considering not voting Tory'.

Almost certain to happen May damaged, Corbyn strengthened.

[jakswan]

As for the Tories, They are left further in Hock to the right wing newspapers on whom they depend for their supply of votes, and the prospect of how to navigate Shite Brexit and be fighting fit for the end of the political cycle when they will be exhausted and old hat .

So the Newspapers don't write stories the electorate want to buy?

[Shaker]

A man goes into a sex shop and asks for the biggest dildo they have.

The assistant shows him a frighteningly large specimen.

"No ... no ... that won't do. Have you got anything bigger?"

The assistant browses through the shelves and finds one that is if anything even more huge.

"No, sorry, still not big enough. Is that it?"

The assistant says: "Well ... not out here in the shop ... let me go in the back and have a look in the stock room."

He comes back in a few moments with a truly terrifying specimen as big as a fire extinguisher. "Right: will that do?"

The man eyes it up and down and says: "Yes, that's the one. That'll do."

The assistant says: "Look, I know that this is absolutely none of my business, and you definitely don't have to answer ... but ... can I ask: what are you going to do with something this size?"

The man starts to unbutton his trousers. "I want you to ram it as far and as hard up my arse as you physically can. Earlier today I briefly considered voting Conservative and I just wanted to remind myself of what life will be like if they get in again."

[Nearly Sane]

Five years no reason they could not win.

Other than electoral and political history.

[Nearly Sane]

Unarguable - were this to be a Presidential election! Anyone but Mick's choice.


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3748164/life-long-labour-voter-mick-hucknall-says-he-cant-support-the-party-because-of-jeremy-corbyn/

[Nearly Sane]

Dearest British public in General,

"A Corbyn for me, a Corbyn for me,
If ye're no a Corbyn ye're no use to me.
The Liberal Democratics are braw, the SNP and a'
But the cocky wee Corbyn the pride o' them a'."

Gonnagle.

Lovely post, just a pity you aren't voting in a proportional system, or in a presidential election.

[ProfessorDavey]

The polling companies have fallen into 2 camps.

In the 'blue' corner are ICM and ComRes, both of whom are continuing to show major Tory leads, albeit somewhat down from the early (pre Tory manifesto launch) part of the campaign. So their final polls have Tory leads of 10-12%.

In the 'red' corner are YouGov, Survation, SurveyMonkey, Orb with Tory leads of between 3-6%.

One group (or even both) are going to be looking pretty foolish come Friday morning.

Final polls, published in the last 24 hours range as follows:

2% Labour lead
1% Tory lead
4% Tory lead
5% Tory lead
7% Tory lead (x2)
8% Tory lead
10% Tory lead
12% Tory lead
13% Tory lead

Certainly no evidence of herding - some (or quite a few) will be asking some serious questions about their methodologies come Friday.

[SusanDoris]

I think the BBC - well radio 4 which is what I listen to mostly - have been far too Labour-biased which I think is disgraceful.
However, I listened to Five Live yesterday evening and was encouraged to hear a more evenly balanced programme.
I was encouraged too to hear that Labour support will be reduced because of the SNP .
I shall seriously consider sinking into a decline and fading sadly away if by any ghastly chance Jeremy Corbyn and team win. The idea doesn't bear thinking about.

[floo]

I think the BBC - well radio 4 which is what I listen to mostly - have been far too Labour-biased which I think is disgraceful.
However, I listened to Five Live yesterday evening and was encouraged to hear a more evenly balanced programme.
I was encouraged too to hear that Labour support will be reduced because of the SNP .
I shall seriously consider sinking into a decline and fading sadly away if by any ghastly chance Jeremy Corbyn and team win. The idea doesn't bear thinking about.

I haven't noticed any political bias by the BBC.

[Nearly Sane]

I think the BBC - well radio 4 which is what I listen to mostly - have been far too Labour-biased which I think is disgraceful.
However, I listened to Five Live yesterday evening and was encouraged to hear a more evenly balanced programme.
I was encouraged too to hear that Labour support will be reduced because of the SNP .
I shall seriously consider sinking into a decline and fading sadly away if by any ghastly chance Jeremy Corbyn and team win. The idea doesn't bear thinking about.

That would be dreadful! Who then would support hounding people to death because of their illness, or the rape clause, or sending arms to IS via Saudi Arabia!

[jakswan]

From Betting markets implied probability.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.119040708

Tory Majority 85%
Labour Majority 3%

Seats Labour - 200-249 Seats - 39%
Seats Tory - 350 - 399 Seats - 58%

The opposite of Brexit and Trump were at these prices, so the markets are wrong.

400+ Seats Tory @ 8 seems good value.

[Aruntraveller]

I haven't noticed any political bias by the BBC.

I don't suppose you have.

[jakswan]

sending arms to IS via Saudi Arabia!

Evidence?

[floo]

I think the BBC is pretty fair in its reports.

[Aruntraveller]

So the Newspapers don't write stories the electorate want to buy?

No the newspapers write the stories that they have conditioned their readers to buy.

[Aruntraveller]

I think the BBC is pretty fair in its reports.

I'm sure you do.

[Nearly Sane]

Evidence?

Ypu mean from the unreleased report that identifies the Saudis as one of the main supporters of terrorism? Why has that not been released?

We sell arms to the Saudis. (Known)

The Saudis arms IS (Known)


BTW nice to know that you would appear to be happy to vote for with hounding people to death because of illness and the raoeclause

[jakswan]

Ypu mean from the unreleased report that identifies the Saudis as one of the main supporters of terrorism? Why has that not been released?

We sell arms to the Saudis. (Known)

The Saudis arms IS (Known)

So no evidence as yet then.

BTW nice to know that you would appear to be happy to vote for with hounding people to death because of illness and the raoeclause

I expect better than this from you. The main reason I voted Tory was actually that I didn't get an answer to my questions about what Labour would do if it didn't raise the billions it thinks from raising Corp tax - (see IFS report).

Labour could still win most seats, I don't think it would be a disaster for the country but I think it would be a disaster for Labour. 

[Nearly Sane]

So no evidence as yet then.

I expect better than this from you. The main reason I voted Tory was actually that I didn't get an answer to my questions about what Labour would do if it didn't raise the billions it thinks from raising Corp tax - (see IFS report).

Labour could still win most seats, I don't think it would be a disaster for the country but I think it would be a disaster for Labour.

You expect better than me to note that you voted to hound people to death because if illness and the rapeclause? Is that because you expected me not to remind you that you voted to hound people to death because of illness and the rapeclause?
I note as well that you think arming the Saudis to bomb hospitals, and the Saudis link to IS is not evidence?

I expected better of you than to vote to hound people to death because of illness, and for the rapeclause, and to arm the Saudis who arm IS.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think the BBC is pretty fair in its reports.

Most of the criticism has been that the BBC have been too soft on the Tories, with criticism particularly aimed at Laura Kuensberg.

[Anchorman]

Evidence? Simples. http://calumslist.org/

[ProfessorDavey]

From Betting markets implied probability.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.119040708

Tory Majority 85%
Labour Majority 3%

Seats Labour - 200-249 Seats - 39%
Seats Tory - 350 - 399 Seats - 58%

The opposite of Brexit and Trump were at these prices, so the markets are wrong.

400+ Seats Tory @ 8 seems good value.

The betting markets as predictors of elections have taken a massive knock recently.

Up until a couple of years ago (with some justification) it was argued that betting was a much better prediction of elections than the polling. But both brexit and Trump have blown that out of the water. In both cases the polls weren't too far off (a good proportion of referendum polls showing small Leave majority, and virtually all US polls showing a small Clinton majority on national vote share which proved correct). The betting was massively wrong, with 90-ish% probabilities of Remain win and Clinton win even after the polls had closed.