Author Topic: UK General Election 2017  (Read 113429 times)

floo

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1125 on: June 09, 2017, 03:25:10 PM »
I'm really struggling to see how May can survive after this.

I can't see how she will manage it, she had quite a few detractors in her party before this debacle. 

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1126 on: June 09, 2017, 03:32:08 PM »
I can't see how she will manage it, she had quite a few detractors in her party before this debacle.
Indeed - and she completely sidelined just about every other leading Tory during the campaign, with the exception of Amber Rudd (and Ruth Davidson in Scotland). Hammond, Gove, Johnson, Hunt, Fox, Leadson, Greening, Morgan, Truss etc were simply invisible.

So she single handedly 'owns' this disaster.

Gonnagle

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1127 on: June 09, 2017, 03:38:16 PM »
Dear Prof,

Quote
I'm really struggling to see how May can survive after this.


She can't, the next big question is Brexit and she is now a laughing stock in Europe, she must at all times go to parliament ( not the Tories ) on all decisions she makes regarding Brexit, her gamble for overall power failed.

Just to add, Ruth Davidson is now talking about a open brexit ( whatever that means ) and she is also quoted as saying we must talk to other parties regarding Brexit, is this the first sign she is throwing off her leaders shackles, distancing herself from a soon to be ex Prime Minister.

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jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1128 on: June 09, 2017, 03:41:59 PM »
Maybe but his rating in now in the ascendency, whereas May's is in the sewer!

Absolutely, May's time is limited, a caretaker. Expect new Tory leader by autumn. 

Odds are less than 5 for these to be next Prime Minister Boris Johnson, David Davis, Amber Rudd, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson.
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Sebastian Toe

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1129 on: June 09, 2017, 03:44:31 PM »
Absolutely, May's time is limited, a caretaker. Expect new Tory leader by autumn. 

Odds are less than 5 for these to be next Prime Minister Boris Johnson, David Davis, Amber Rudd, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson.
Would Ruth not have to become an MP first?
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1130 on: June 09, 2017, 03:49:45 PM »
Would Ruth not have to become an MP first?
Yes - unless they put her in the House of Lords and started playing politics as if it was 1817 not 2017.

wigginhall

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1131 on: June 09, 2017, 04:17:32 PM »
Well, thank God we will all be saved from sodomy and evolution, and not just Ulster.  God has a plan!
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jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1132 on: June 09, 2017, 04:25:55 PM »
Well played by Labour.

I did not support many of Labour's manifesto commitments - nice as they are I did not think they were economically viable.

For a start increases in Corporation Tax means more people have an incentive to pay accountants additional fees to save them from paying additional taxes. Accountants often charge a percentage of the tax saved so higher tax rates would probably mean the government collects less tax to spend on public services.

Secondly my experience is that there are very few people in a private sector business who have the ability to make a significant impact on profits. My experience is that a talented few put in crazy hours because they are competitive and delivering results matter to them - they define themselves by it - and then delegate work and manage and monitor the people below them, who wouldn't achieve those results without their managers to manage resources, take risks, make strategic decisions. The few who are so good at their job that they are hard to replace (and the business would take a big hit without them) get paid a bigger share of the profits to retain them. Everyone else is not good enough at their jobs to be irreplaceable, regardless of how much training they get, because it's about drive, not education.

Thirdly I support private and grammar schools - helps people with drive compete against other people with drive and the competition leads to higher achievements for the few. I know - Labour's manifest is for the many, not the few. If private and grammar schools were abolished, the smart or driven kids in the state school system would improves state school standards. But those smart or driven kids won't achieve what they could have achieved in the private or grammar school system. 


Well thought out and I would love to debate it with but since I mostly agree bit hard to.

Don't expect the lefties here to pick this up, misrepresentation and whataboutery is their playbook. :)
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Shaker

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1133 on: June 09, 2017, 04:33:21 PM »
Well, thank God we will all be saved from sodomy and evolution, and not just Ulster.  God has a plan!
... and he's swapping notes with Al Burns!
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Sebastian Toe

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1134 on: June 09, 2017, 04:35:09 PM »
. But those smart or driven kids won't achieve what they could have achieved in the private or grammar school system. 
 
Does that apply to all smart and driven kids who have never attended private or grammar schools?
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Gonnagle

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1135 on: June 09, 2017, 04:44:56 PM »
Dear Jakswan,

Quote
Don't expect the lefties here to pick this up, misrepresentation and whataboutery is their playbook. :)

The lefties, what's a leftie??

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ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1136 on: June 09, 2017, 05:01:08 PM »
Does that apply to all smart and driven kids who have never attended private or grammar schools?
Which is, of course, the vast majority, given that most parents of smart kids can't afford private schooling and there aren't any grammar schools in most of the country.

And don't forget that better results from private schools only flatters to deceive. Why, because when you compare kids from private and stay schools entering university with the same A level grades those from state schools do much better during their university education.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1137 on: June 09, 2017, 05:03:28 PM »
Don't expect the lefties here to pick this up, misrepresentation and whataboutery is their playbook. :)
Hole, digging, stop.

Use these three words to create a well known phrase.

Shaker

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1138 on: June 09, 2017, 05:23:48 PM »
Hole, digging, stop.

Use these three words to create a well known phrase.
You can have in, when, a and you're for free.
Pain, or damage, don't end the world. Or despair, or fucking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man, and give some back. - Al Swearengen, Deadwood.

bluehillside Retd.

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1139 on: June 09, 2017, 05:24:35 PM »
Gabriella,

Quote
Well played by Labour.

I did not support many of Labour's manifesto commitments - nice as they are I did not think they were economically viable.

But they were at least costed – which more that can be said for the tory “menu without the prices” approach.

Quote
For a start increases in Corporation Tax means more people have an incentive to pay accountants additional fees to save them from paying additional taxes. Accountants often charge a percentage of the tax saved so higher tax rates would probably mean the government collects less tax to spend on public services.

Speaking as a former partner at one of the Big 4 accountancy firms, corporation tax is already largely discretionary given the ease with which it can be avoided – see Starbucks, Amazon etc. All you need do for example is house the Group's intellectual property rights in a low tax off-shore territory, then charge your UK subsidiary a shed load of royalties for using the company name, thereby reducing its taxable profit here.

Worth noting too that the plans for higher corporation tax would have applied to profits over £300k, so not affected most small businesses at all.   

Quote
Secondly my experience is that there are very few people in a private sector business who have the ability to make a significant impact on profits. My experience is that a talented few put in crazy hours because they are competitive and delivering results matter to them - they define themselves by it - and then delegate work and manage and monitor the people below them, who wouldn't achieve those results without their managers to manage resources, take risks, make strategic decisions. The few who are so good at their job that they are hard to replace (and the business would take a big hit without them) get paid a bigger share of the profits to retain them. Everyone else is not good enough at their jobs to be irreplaceable, regardless of how much training they get, because it's about drive, not education.

It’s also a lot about luck and happenstance – anyone can be a risk taker, but it’s dangerous to assume that those whose risks came good had any special insight. Either way though, I’m not sure how this relates to Labour’s corporation tax proposals?

Quote
Thirdly I support private and grammar schools - helps people with drive compete against other people with drive and the competition leads to higher achievements for the few. I know - Labour's manifest is for the many, not the few. If private and grammar schools were abolished, the smart or driven kids in the state school system would improves state school standards. But those smart or driven kids won't achieve what they could have achieved in the private or grammar school system.

I don’t. Private and grammar schools privilege the wealthy over the less wealthy when there’s no corresponding relationship with intelligence and drive. While I might come some of the way with you about creating an educational system that enables everyone to achieve their potential, I don’t see what the size of your parents’ bank account has to do with it. 

My “smart or driven” daughter incidentally went to a comprehensive school that offers the International Baccalaureate rather than “A” levels. She scored 45 points – the maximum possible, equivalent to five A* “A” levels. Did she not “achieve what they could have achieved in the private or grammar school system”?

Dangerous things, generalisations.   

Quote
However, my very active Labour MP (she campaigned against local hospital closures) phoned me and said Labour have no chance of winning so don't worry about tax policies and education policies, vote for me if you think I do a good job in Opposition of asking the government awkward questions and holding them accountable. So I did vote for my Labour candidate - because I wanted someone to hold the government accountable rather than giving them free rein.

Which is fine, but that’s a separate issue. 
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God

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1140 on: June 09, 2017, 05:30:46 PM »
Speaking as a former partner at one of the Big 4 accountancy firms, corporation tax is already largely discretionary given the ease with which it can be avoided – see Starbucks, Amazon etc. All you need do for example is house the ownership of your intellectual property rights in a low tax off-shore territory, then charge your UK subsidiary a shed load of royalties for using the company name, thereby reducing its taxable profit here.
That only really works for larger businesses with the ability to transfer profit offshore - most small businesses can't do that.

Worth noting too that the plans for higher corporation tax would have applied to profits over £300k, so not affected most small businesses at all.
I hadn't picked up on that - but when the plans were being discussed I did comment that the rates they were discussing from 2010 were those that applied to big businesses, not the small business rate.

I don’t. Private and grammar schools privilege the wealthy over the less wealthy when there’s no corresponding relationship with intelligence and drive. While I might come some of the way with you about creating an educational system that enables everyone to achieve their potential, I don’t see what the size of your parents’ bank account has to do with it. 

My “smart or driven” daughter incidentally went to a comprehensive school that offers the International Baccalaureate rather than “A” levels. She scored 45 points – the maximum possible, equivalent to five A* “A” levels. Did she not “achieve what they could have achieved in the private or grammar school system”?
And there is plenty of evidence that in areas which are largely selective overall attainment across both the grammars and the de facto secondary moderns is lower than in non selective areas where everyone is going to comprehensive schools.

bluehillside Retd.

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1141 on: June 09, 2017, 05:46:17 PM »
Prof,

Quote
That only really works for larger businesses with the ability to transfer profit offshore - most small businesses can't do that.

Yes, but most small businesses don’t have profits over £300k so wouldn’t be affected in any case.

Quote
I hadn't picked up on that - but when the plans were being discussed I did comment that the rates they were discussing from 2010 were those that applied to big businesses, not the small business rate.

Fair enough. Why then shouldn’t those big bizzos pay their share? After all, they rely on employees and for that matter on a customer base that has to be educated, use medical services, drive on the roads, have the rubbish collected etc. If Starbucks and the rest paid tax in a relationship with where their sales occurred I really don’t think they’d leave the UK.   

Quote
And there is plenty of evidence that in areas which are largely selective overall attainment across both the grammars and the de facto secondary moderns is lower than in non selective areas where everyone is going to comprehensive schools.

Which is why I’d rather live in a society with a non-selective system, certainly when the selection is done by bank balance.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2017, 05:49:18 PM by bluehillside »
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1142 on: June 09, 2017, 05:52:37 PM »
Fair enough. Why then shouldn’t those big bizzos pay their share? After all, they rely on employees and for that matter on a customer base that has to be educated, use medical services, drive on the roads, have the rubbish collected etc. If Starbucks and the rest paid tax in a relationship with where their sales occurred I really don’t think they’d leave the UK.
They should - my point was that the current system, even with a small business corporation tax rate, is stacked against small businesses, when they are competing with large ones. 

Which is why I’d rather live in a society with a non-selective system, certainly when the selection is done by bank balance.
I agree.

jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1143 on: June 09, 2017, 05:52:50 PM »
Hole, digging, stop.

Use these three words to create a well known phrase.

Davey, unable to refute dishonesty and hypocrisy.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1144 on: June 09, 2017, 05:54:49 PM »
Davey, unable to refute dishonesty and hypocrisy.
Quote from Jakswan:

'Don't expect the lefties here to pick this up, misrepresentation and whataboutery is their playbook.'

And he would have us believe that just days ago he was seriously considering voting for a left wing party. We aren't idiots you know.

jakswan

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1145 on: June 09, 2017, 06:18:36 PM »
Quote from Jakswan:

'Don't expect the lefties here to pick this up, misrepresentation and whataboutery is their playbook.'

And he would have us believe that just days ago he was seriously considering voting for a left wing party. We aren't idiots you know.

You accused me of dishonesty and saying things, I produced evidence that refuted you.

If you make a claim that isn't true it's dishonest. If you criticise  me for being dishonest whilst being dishonest yourself this is hypocrisy.

I don't think you are an idiot even though you are doing well in looking like one.
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Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1146 on: June 09, 2017, 06:53:11 PM »
From18 April

Well that will be JC out of a job pretty soon!
Seb. Right on the money I see.

Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1147 on: June 09, 2017, 06:56:35 PM »
So we have you to thank for a strategically inept PM being supported by a bunch of science-deniers: one would have thought God would be a little more politically savvy. Will await with interest to see what the DUP will demand by way of return: perhaps a green-tinged version of the 'Noah's Ark' theme park in Kentucky being built in leafy Strabane.

I suspect it will all end in tears before long, and the ballot boxes will be used again before the year is out.
Gordon
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The Accountant, OBE, KC

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1148 on: June 09, 2017, 07:08:04 PM »
Does that apply to all smart and driven kids who have never attended private or grammar schools?
I doubt it - there are always exceptions and some really good state schools or exceptional teachers in bad state schools.

No, I'm speaking about my experience. I have 2 kids in private school. The eldest was in private from age 4 and is now almost finished 1st year A'Level. The younger one was at state primary and switched to private in Year 3. The state primary had great shiny facilities - you could see the results of Labour's spending on the building, the equipment, the gifted child programme and the special needs programme where kids were taken out of regular classes in certain lessons and given different work in another classroom etc.

My younger daughter was considered gifted in English and attended different English classes at the state school and got extra homework. In regular classes she sometimes got hit by a kid with behavioural problems who disrupted the class and was only allowed to attend regular classes either in the morning or in the afternoon as he could not cope with a whole school day without smacking someone or screaming at the teacher and holding up lessons for the rest of the class. But I figured that was part of a good learning experience rather than being cocooned in some middle-class bubble in a private school - she was a tough kid so she could handle it.

When I decided it was time for her to stop coasting in the state school system, she switched to private school in Year 3 and she was no longer considered gifted by the private school's standards and had to do some extra work at home to get to what was considered a good standard at the private school. Eventually by the end of Year 5 she got to the stage where she was beyond the expected standard for her age at the private school in English. 

My younger daughter is in Year 7 now, and her end of year exam grades are much better than my older daughter's were in Year 7, although my older daughter put in more hours. If my younger daughter revises she gets 90-100%. If she doesn't bother she gets 75-80%. Both my kids had the same education in Year 7 but the difference in results is because of ability - one can focus and pick up information and exam technique better than the other. Maybe if my older did hundreds of extra hours she could get the same exam results. I have no idea how that translates to university results or career success - but I could see the difference in what the school demanded of pupils in the state and private school system.
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Bubbles

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Re: UK General Election 2017
« Reply #1149 on: June 09, 2017, 07:09:48 PM »