UK General Election 2017

[floo]

It is alarming that Gove, who wrecked the education system, is now in charge of the environment. Apparently he had previously wanted the subject  removed from the school curriculum!

[jakswan]

There was no commitment in the Labour manifesto to leaving the single market.

And even if there were, so what. Labour lost the election - it isn't bound by what it said prior to the election. What losing parties do is rethink their position on the basis of not winning an election on their previous manifesto. The current mood music (see Barry Gardiner's comments today) and Keir Starmer - single market membership is smack back on the table.

What we do know is that May's view of hard brexit (migration prioritised over the economy), no deal better than bad deal is dead in the water. Rejected by the electorate and without a commons majority.

Article 50 is triggered, Tory will put deal before parliament, fails to get through we leave with no deal.

The labour party is in the hands of the Marxists if you wanted to stop Brexit the LibDems is the only hope.

DUP deal tomorrow, clocks ticking.

[ProfessorDavey]

Article 50 is triggered, Tory will put deal before parliament, fails to get through we leave with no deal.

Massively simplistic.

Implies no other scenarios are possible - the most obvious being revoking article 50 if it looks as if there is a bad deal. Remember no parliament can bind its successor. Article 50 was triggered prior to the general election.

And this is a critical issue - the timing of mandate. Prior to the election the referendum superseded the election of the MPs as it was a more recent mandate. That has now changed completely, all the current MPs have been provided with their mandates more recently than the referendum.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I'm wondering if May could use the threat or promise of revoking Article 50 to stay in power or as an electoral strategy since the Tories would prefer power over Brexit. Throw in Corbyns policy on tuition fees and Labour would be stuffed.

Drastic times need drastic solutions but the Tories are too much the gambler, player and crisis junkie

Heseltine was absolutely right Brexit is killing the Tories.

[ProfessorDavey]

The labour party is in the hands of the Marxists

Bizarrely I think that there will be a softening on both sides within the Labour party. Corbyn is safe so the centre and right of the party will stop fighting him. But Corbyn and his small like minded cliche (which hasn't become any bigger in terms of ideology of MPs) also recognise that he needs to compromise and bring the whole parliamentary party with him. Interestingly we actually saw that with the Labour manifesto. For all the hysteria of the right wing media the manifesto wasn't all that left wing - indeed it wasn't far from that of Miliband.

if you wanted to stop Brexit the LibDems is the only hope.

Which is one of the reasons why I voted for them. But it is clear that the whole agenda has changed since last week, and quite rightly so - that's what general elections are for. May cannot simply carry on as if nothing has happened. She asked for a mandate (in her mind a massively increased majority) for hard brexit, for prioritising migration over the economy, for no deal being better than a bad deal and she failed spectacularly. She is going to have to change her policy (and her approach) - if she doesn't she is toast.

[jakswan]

Massively simplistic.

But massively true.

Implies no other scenarios are possible - the most obvious being revoking article 50 if it looks as if there is a bad deal. Remember no parliament can bind its successor. Article 50 was triggered prior to the general election.

LOL there is zero chance of that now, the only way to stay in would have been a referendum on the deal.

And this is a critical issue - the timing of mandate. Prior to the election the referendum superseded the election of the MPs as it was a more recent mandate. That has now changed completely, all the current MPs have been provided with their mandates more recently than the referendum.

Labour / Tory both Pro-Brexit parties now, Labour will push on freedom of movement of Labour and the Tories will go for it.

The centrists in Labour are flapping, this will turn into revolt within days then deep regret that they backed Corbyn in this election.

Tories won't go for another election, we are locked in.

[jakswan]

But Corbyn and his small like minded cliche (which hasn't become any bigger in terms of ideology of MPs) also recognise that he needs to compromise and bring the whole parliamentary party with him.

What is Corbyn & Co's track record on compromise?

Did you listen to Shadow Chancellor yesterday, we'll forward a Queens speech no deals with other parties. The LibDems won't back a party with fantasy economic policies. 

[Walt Zingmatilder]

It need not be a revolt unless the centre want to stay in opposition. The labour manifesto is now out of date.

Tory strengths
Labour centrist sabotage.

Labour strengths
Useless Conservative party
Weak Conservative party
Factional Conservative party
Winning ticket
Direction of travel
Up in the polls
Relatively safer hands
Boris Johnson

The Tories need to ditch Brexit and scrap tuition fees.
They are now the complete Brexit junkies. I doubt Labour are.
Brexit is the complete turd being drawn up into the body of the country instead of being rightfully shat out and flushed away..........and perhaps get rid of Boris Johnson who is forever floating around like a barrage balloon threatening to fall and suffocate everyone underneath.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

What is Corbyn & Co's track record on compromise?

Did you listen to Shadow Chancellor yesterday, we'll forward a Queens speech no deals with other parties. The LibDems won't back a party with fantasy economic policies.

That's why they won't go into coalition with the Tories.aka the Mexican standoff party.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Jakswan,

The labour party is in the hands of the Marxists if you wanted to stop Brexit the LibDems is the only hope.

http://www.labour.org.uk/people/filter/c/shadow-cabinet

What a right bunch of Marxists!!

The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made.

Groucho Marx

Ooops!! Sorry wrong kind of Marxist!

Gonnagle.

[ProfessorDavey]

What is Corbyn & Co's track record on compromise?

Err ... Trident.

Direct quote from their manifesto:

'Labour supports the renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent.'

That is a massive compromise on behalf of the Corbynites.

Actually I don't think you really understand the mind-set of the Corbynite left. They are wedded to 'democratic' decision making within the party, hence they accepted the party's decision to support Trident renewal even though they personally opposed. If you read the manifesto, there are loads of things that aren't overtly Corbynite as policy commitments - these came from the democratic party process, e.g. 2% of GDP sent on defence (more than the Tories spent in 2016).

[ProfessorDavey]

LOL there is zero chance of that now, the only way to stay in would have been a referendum on the deal.

Why is there zero chance of that.

Don't forget the current crop of MPs have a democratic mandate which supersedes both the referendum and also the triggering of article 50.

I'm not saying the likelihood is high (not least because I anticipate either a permanent soft brexit deal now or a transitional uber-soft brexit), but you are laughably naive to support the likelihood is zero.

Let's not forget that the Tories only have a majority with the support of the DUP, and the DUP (for obvious reasons) will not support a 'no deal' option as it would massively and detrimentally affect NI.

[jakswan]

Err ... Trident.

Direct quote from their manifesto:

'Labour supports the renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent.'

That is a massive compromise on behalf of the Corbynites.

Actually I don't think you really understand the mind-set of the Corbynite left. They are wedded to 'democratic' decision making within the party, hence they accepted the party's decision to support Trident renewal even though they personally opposed. If you read the manifesto, there are loads of things that aren't overtly Corbynite as policy commitments - these came from the democratic party process, e.g. 2% of GDP sent on defence (more than the Tories spent in 2016).

He was promising a review of that should he have gotten into power. I don't know why you are arguing with me, the leadership are for leaving the single market, I suspect always have been, argue with them.

Honestly Davey, as I recall your predictions have been, we won't vote for Brexit, we won't have early election, Art50 won't be triggered the Lords will block it, now you predicting that we won't leave the single market despite the Tories saying they will and Labour leadership supporting that position. 

If you feel that strongly about the single market why the heck did you spend so much time debating with me over how wonderful Corbyn was, you should have stuck the knife in him to get the LibDems further ahead.

I think most Labour politicians will realise this over the next week, I'm predicting another Labour civil war is about to begin.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think most Labour politicians will realise this over the next week, I'm predicting another Labour civil war is about to begin.

Civil war in a major UK political party - yup, but wrong party.

[jakswan]

Why is there zero chance of that.

Don't forget the current crop of MPs have a democratic mandate which supersedes both the referendum and also the triggering of article 50.

I'm not saying the likelihood is high (not least because I anticipate either a permanent soft brexit deal now or a transitional uber-soft brexit), but you are laughably naive to support the likelihood is zero.

Let's not forget that the Tories only have a majority with the support of the DUP, and the DUP (for obvious reasons) will not support a 'no deal' option as it would massively and detrimentally affect NI.

Tim Farron is right, Labour gave the Tories a blank cheque on article 50. Tories put the deal before Parliament, they don't vote for it we leave with no deal. 

Its simple yes but also true. Why would Tories go for a softer Brexit, the Scottish Tory manifesto commits to leaving single market, Corbyn backs that position.

I can see another play, if the LibDems took some responsibility and offered another coalition they could ask for a referendum on the deal as the price.

If I were you right now I'd be onto to your local LibDem party urging them to get a grip. I've done that they are not budging but enough pressure on them they might cave. DUP deal tomorrow clock ticking.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Apparently Jacob Rees Mogg lost the plot on Victoria Derbyshire.

When asked how long May could go on he said "May Theresa May live forever, alleluia, alleluia, amen".

[floo]

Apparently Jacob Rees Mogg lost the plot on Victoria Derbyshire.

When asked how long May could go on he said "May Theresa May live forever, alleluia, alleluia, amen".

Oh dear he really did lose the plot!

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Guardian has it that Farage accepts there is a move to soft Brexit.
Meanwhile May to face backbencher.
IMHO another Spivs circus designed to fool the GBP.

[ProfessorDavey]

Why would Tories go for a softer Brexit

Because they failed to get a mandate for hard brexit in the referendum, despite calling the election specifically to achieve just that. And because probably half of Tory MPs supported remain and would almost certainly prefer soft rather than hard brexit. Their re-election, coupled with May's failure to get a mandate for hard brexit massively strengthens their position.

the Scottish Tory manifesto commits to leaving single market

But the Tories failed to win a mandate for their manifesto - you do understand that don't you. They failed to win an overall majority, which is what is required to gain a mandate for your manifesto.

And on Scotland - their leader (who is probably just about the most popular Tory at the moment) is openly challenging May's hard brexit line. She is going hell for leather for soft brexit.

Corbyn backs that position.

In case you failed to notice this too - Corbyn did not win the election. He, and the Labour party are very clearly rethinking their approach. Note Barry Gardiner just this morning. It is very notable that the Labour figures most involved in the brexit positioning (Gardiner and Starmer) are clearly moving rapidly towards soft brexit.

Hard brexit is dead - May put it to the people and the people said 'no'.

[jeremyp]

Agree and I'm puzzled by commentators suggesting Tory Brexit deal is off the table, article 50 is triggered, if they don't vote for the Tory deal that they forward then we will have no deal.

I think they are looking at the numbers. There are more MPs that would prefer soft Brexit to hard Brexit, but that fact is only relevant if the soft Brexiteers in the Tory party are willing to put their jobs on the line because, the wrong kind of Brexit might trigger another election.

[ProfessorDavey]

why the heck did you spend so much time debating with me over how wonderful Corbyn was ...

When did I ever do that. You seem to be confusing me with some other poster, or posters.

Don't forget that:

1. As a Labour member I didn't vote for him in the 2015 leadership election (I voted for all other candidates).

2. I left the Labour party because of his leadership.

3. I did not vote Labour in the election last week - I voted LibDem, despite the fact that the Labour candidate and ex-MP is a friend of mine and I have a lot of time for him.

4. I have been very openly critical of Corbyn and his policies for months on this forum.

5. I think the only strongly positive thing I have said about him is that he had played a blinder in the campaign (something that pretty everyone accepts). And even then I made it clear that was only my view about the campaign - note:

'I still completely disagree with his politics, but you have to admit that he is playing a blinder in this campaign, constantly getting the better of May.'

[ProfessorDavey]

I think they are looking at the numbers. There are more MPs that would prefer soft Brexit to hard Brexit, but that fact is only relevant if the soft Brexiteers in the Tory party are willing to put their jobs on the line because, the wrong kind of Brexit might trigger another election.

There always were more MPs preferring soft brexit. What has changed is that these MPs now have a new post-referendum electoral mandate, and they will be massively emboldened to push for soft brexit. They are further strengthened by the fact that May called this election specifically to get a huge mandate for her hard brexit vision and she failed to get that mandate.

[jeremyp]

Dear Jeremyp,

Can you reflect some more, I will, for me this is a complete disaster for the Tories, I honestly don't see any upside for the Tories

Yes. It's a disaster for them too. As far as I can tell, the only people who should be happy with the result are the DUP and the Scottish Conservatives. Everybody else has had a bad election.

Once again I will reiterate, Corbyn only needs to shutup now and watch as the Tories implode

It didn't work after the referendum. It won't work now. He's got to start doing his job, which is Leader of the Opposition.

he had a cracking Election campaign

But he had a dismal two years before that. That's why he lost, that and the fact that it turns out Theresa May is also pretty useless,

[jeremyp]

Let's not forget that the Tories only have a majority with the support of the DUP, and the DUP (for obvious reasons) will not support a 'no deal' option as it would massively and detrimentally affect NI.

The DUP is a hard Brexit party.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Yes. It's a disaster for them too. As far as I can tell, the only people who should be happy with the result are the DUP and the Scottish Conservatives. Everybody else has had a bad election.
It didn't work after the referendum. It won't work now. He's got to start doing his job, which is Leader of the Opposition.

But he had a dismal two years before that. That's why he lost, that and the fact that it turns out Theresa May is also pretty useless,

In two years both the Tories and labour created their own opposition factions.In the Tories their opposition one. In Labour the incumbent one.

All Labour factions have proved themselves as crap. Corbyn by any measure a resounding political legend.

That the Tories are now wanting us to pretend Theresa is strong and stable and that No negotiation strength is necessary for Brexit to be wonderful ANd that the right wing press is the fount of all wisdom.

Well Brexit is here and it is the Tories who have got to fall again and again and again..