UK General Election 2017

[jeremyp]

There always were more MPs preferring soft brexit. What has changed is that these MPs now have a new post-referendum electoral mandate, and they will be massively emboldened to push for soft brexit. They are further strengthened by the fact that May called this election specifically to get a huge mandate for her hard brexit vision and she failed to get that mandate.

Yes, but the Tories are on a knife edge  and are supported by a party that advocates hard Brexit. If Theresa May fails to push through a hard Brexit, she might lose the support of the DUP which will inevitably lead to another General Election.

Of course, this is all months or years down the line. The Labour Party might have reverted to ineffectiveness by then and the Tories might think the risk is worth it.

On election night after the exit poll was announced, on Radio 4, somebody pointed out that the same poll predicted twenty fewer seats for Labour under the 2018 boundary changes. This is one of the reasons I am surprised that so many Labour supporters are happy today. The Tory government was extremely unpopular and Theresa May went out of her way to make it more unpopular (fox hunting anyone?), the current constituency boundaries have a built in twenty seat bias towards Labour and they still lost. Jeremy Corbyn was described as triumphant by Jonathan Dimbleby.  If he is, he is living in an alternative reality as are some of his supporters. One of my Labour friends on Facebook, this morning claimed that Jeremy Corbyn has a mandate to take over the Brexit negotiations in spite of the fact that Labour polled fewer votes than Conservative.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Forum,

Breaking news on the Beeb, Queens speech delayed, what's that about??

Gonnagle.

[jeremyp]

Dear Forum,

Breaking news on the Beeb, Queens speech delayed, what's that about??

Gonnagle.

There's probably something in it that the DUP doesn't like.

[jakswan]

Because they failed to get a mandate for hard brexit in the referendum, despite calling the election specifically to achieve just that. And because probably half of Tory MPs supported remain and would almost certainly prefer soft rather than hard brexit. Their re-election, coupled with May's failure to get a mandate for hard brexit massively strengthens their position.

When someone is elected their manifesto and assume they will attempt to deliver as much of it as possible. The Tories in power will deliver what they promised wishful thinking on your part isn't going to change that.

You voted for LibDems do you expect the LibDems to vote a certain way with regards to Brexit don't you.

But the Tories failed to win a mandate for their manifesto - you do understand that don't you. They failed to win an overall majority, which is what is required to gain a mandate for your manifesto.

They won the election and will form the next Govt, they will aim to deliver as much of their manifesto as they can.

And on Scotland - their leader (who is probably just about the most popular Tory at the moment) is openly challenging May's hard brexit line. She is going hell for leather for soft brexit.

No there is a Scottish Tory manifesto, it talks of a free trade deal. 

In case you failed to notice this too - Corbyn did not win the election. He, and the Labour party are very clearly rethinking their approach. Note Barry Gardiner just this morning. It is very notable that the Labour figures most involved in the brexit positioning (Gardiner and Starmer) are clearly moving rapidly towards soft brexit.

Ohh I noticed the centrists in Labour use take everything to mean "no brexit" however the leaders of the party have said exactly the opposite.

Hard brexit is dead - May put it to the people and the people said 'no'.

In this election more than 80% voted for pro-brexit parties.

You said we would not vote for Brexit, you were wrong.
You said article 50 would not get through parliament, you were wrong.
You said there would not be another election, you were wrong.
You are wrong today.

Hole digging.

[Nearly Sane]

Boundary changes not favouring Tories.


http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

[ProfessorDavey]

The DUP is a hard Brexit party.

No they aren't for the obvious reason that hard brexit would be likely to result in a hard border between NI and the republic being needed.

If you read their manifesto their key priorities on brexit are linked to trade and the economy and maintaining freedom of movement - that sounds pretty soft brexit to me. Specifically, their top priorities are:

DURING THE NEGOTIATIONS THE DUP WANTS TO SEE
A FOCUS ON THE FOLLOWING PRIORITIES AND OBJECTIVES:
1. Successful outward-looking knowledge-based economy in Northern Ireland
2. Ease of trade with the Irish Republic and throughout the European Union
3. Maintenance of the Common Travel Area
4. Strengthened relationships across the four components parts of the United Kingdom with no internal borders
5. Northern Ireland-specific solutions achieved through active Executive engagement
6. Particular circumstances of Northern Ireland with a land border with the EU fully reflected
7. Frictionless border with Irish Republic assisting those working or travelling in the other jurisdiction
8. Progress on new free trade deals with the rest of the world
9. Comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the European Union
10. Northern Ireland established as a hub for trade from Irish Republic into the broader UK market
11. Customs arrangements which facilitate trade with new and existing markets
12. Confidence and capacity within local businesses to maximize opportunities
13. Business to retain competiveness and not face additional costs
14. Arrangements to facilitate ease of movement of people, goods and services

They don't want to restrict migration - quite the reverse (see 14), they are completely silent on single market, so no indication that they want to leave, and they want to retain opt-in access to various EU funding schemes.

Sounds all very soft-brexity to me.

[ProfessorDavey]

Yes, but the Tories are on a knife edge  and are supported by a party that advocates hard Brexit.

They aren't - the DUP do not support hard brexit:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/Who-are-the-DUP-democratic-unionist-party-northern-ireland/

in Arelene Foster own words:

'No-one wants to see a ‘hard’ Brexit, what we want to see is a workable plan to leave the European Union, and that’s what the national vote was about – therefore we need to get on with that.'

The DUP support soft brexit.

[The Accountant, OBE, KC]

In this election more than 80% voted for pro-brexit parties.

You can't necessarily conclude anything from that. I voted Remain. I also voted Labour - not because I now support Leave - but because in my constituency a Lib-Dem vote would have meant that the Tory candidate may have got in, which I did not want as the Tory candidate did not campaign for issues that I care about in my constituency. I wanted to try to make sure that there were MPs in Parliament who would ask the government awkward questions and hold them accountable for their Brexit and austerity related policies.

Also my Labour candidate defied the Labour party whip and voted against triggering Article 50.

[wigginhall]

Dear Forum,

Breaking news on the Beeb, Queens speech delayed, what's that about??

Gonnagle.

The DUP are demanding a ban on sodomy throughout the UK, that is, for humans and animals.   Exceptions to be made for farm animals, and possibly arthopods.   They have gone off to consult the Bible. 

[jakswan]

No they aren't for the obvious reason that hard brexit would be likely to result in a hard border between NI and the republic being needed.

8. Progress on new free trade deals with the rest of the world
9. Comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the European Union

Sounds all very soft-brexity to me.

8. Impossible unless out of single market
9. Not needed if in single market

I assume you still define hard as out of single market?

[Nearly Sane]

Dear Forum,

Breaking news on the Beeb, Queens speech delayed, what's that about??

Gonnagle.

Not clear what is in it because of DUP and internal divides, it needs to be written on special paper with magic ink that takes several days to dry, and if it isn't ready for Monday, the Queen is off to Ascot which is obviously more important

[ProfessorDavey]

8. Impossible unless out of single market

The DUP clearly aren't running the show. What this is about is saying that depending on what other (who are running the show) decide, this would be a priority. So this isn't saying they don't want to be in the single market at all.

9. Not needed if in single market

But being in the single market is perhaps the best way of achieving this.

I assume you still define hard as out of single market?

And/or customs union.

So how do you counter Arlene Foster's own words:

'No-one wants to see a ‘hard’ Brexit ...'

The DUP are soft brexit - the media etc have rather failed to recognise this as because of their extreme views on other thing the London based chatterati have assumed they are UKIP with Irish accents. That isn't the case - they might be nutters on all sorts of matters, but they aren't hard brexit nutters.

[jakswan]

The DUP clearly aren't running the show. What this is about is saying that depending on what other (who are running the show) decide, this would be a priority. So this isn't saying they don't want to be in the single market at all.
But being in the single market is perhaps the best way of achieving this.
And/or customs union.

So how do you counter Arlene Foster's own words:

'No-one wants to see a ‘hard’ Brexit ...'

The DUP are soft brexit - the media etc have rather failed to recognise this as because of their extreme views on other thing the London based chatterati have assumed they are UKIP with Irish accents. That isn't the case - they might be nutters on all sorts of matters, but they aren't hard brexit nutters.

Hard - soft Brexit are meaningless terms often spun to suit a persons political agenda. I follow NI politics well aware of what the DUP are, suspect they will push on freedom of movement of Labour.

Its clear to me that both DUP & Tories have in their manifesto a promise to remove UK from single market, and the opposition won't be standing in their way.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Partying like it's still 18 april2017

Johnson in the Sun......Davis, almost everywhere.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Dear Forum,

Breaking news on the Beeb, Queens speech delayed, what's that about??

Gonnagle.

Tories daring Jezzer to step forward. They don't want to clear up their own Brexit shit.

[ProfessorDavey]

Its clear to me that both DUP & Tories have in their manifesto a promise to remove UK from single market ...

Really?

Have you actually read the DUP manifesto? Clearly not.

Well I have and there isn't a single mention of the single market, and absolutely no promise to remove the UK from the single market.

I suspect you are under the misapprehension that the DUP are UKIP with irish accents. They aren't on brexit - they do not support hard brexit.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

There's probably something in it that the DUP doesn't like.

Something about being written on Goatskin and time for the ink to dry.

Why it couldn't go on the back of a fag packet like their manifesto I don't know.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Dear Forum,

Breaking news on the Beeb, Queens speech delayed, what's that about??

Gonnagle.

The Tories are hoping  that Aliens will invade.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Vlad,

The Tories are hoping  that Aliens will invade.

That's got me thinking, anybody know what the Argentine's are up to at the moment

Gonnagle.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Dear Vlad,

That's got me thinking, anybody know what the Argentine's are up to at the moment

Gonnagle.

Buying copies of the Sun and laughing their Cocks off at us.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

DUP uncertain at pact with Superstitious Oxford Graduate who doubts spell given to her by Australian 'magician'. MP Mason Boyne worries NI party will look weird.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4595242/May-wanted-ditch-strong-stable-slogan-election.html

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Can somebody put me straight...Did both the BBC and another broadcaster refer to a Cunt using the H word or have I got that the wrong way round.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Tories to raise voting age to 45?
Voting restricted to those wearing Tuxedos and Ball gowns?

[jakswan]

Really?

Have you actually read the DUP manifesto? Clearly not.

Well I have and there isn't a single mention of the single market, and absolutely no promise to remove the UK from the single market.

I suspect you are under the misapprehension that the DUP are UKIP with irish accents. They aren't on brexit - they do not support hard brexit.

You copied content from that Manifesto, it doesn't need to mention the single market in order for you to deduce that their intent was to leave it.

We will see.

[ProfessorDavey]

It will be interesting to see whether the general election shifts opinion on brexit.

Over the past year opinion has been remarkably stable, with opinion largely continuing to reflect the wafer thin majority for Leave (with maybe a tiny shift toward remain recently). This is really unusual - typically once a decision is made there is a shift toward that position, in effect the new status quo. But we haven't seen this post-referendum.

Now it is possible that opinion will carry on the same as before the election, but I have a feeling we are going to see a shift. We will see presuming that YouGov continue to poll with the same question on brexit that they have since last June.