UK General Election 2017

[jakswan]

Yet more assertion.

Yes I'm asserting that my reading of the DUP manifesto implies that they are going to support leaving the single market, you are asserting your view.

Manifesto: "progress on new free trade deals with the rest of the world”.
Journalist: This implies that the DUP favours leaving the EU Single Market and the Customs Union

I agree with the Irish Times and their analysis, you agree with other analysis, we can agree to disagree, no need to call my journalist ill-informed, I think the Irish Times is quite a well respected paper.

[ProfessorDavey]

Yes I'm asserting that my reading of the DUP manifesto implies that they are going to support leaving the single market, you are asserting your view.

Manifesto: "progress on new free trade deals with the rest of the world”.
Journalist: This implies that the DUP favours leaving the EU Single Market and the Customs Union

I agree with the Irish Times and their analysis, you agree with other analysis, we can agree to disagree, no need to call my journalist ill-informed, I think the Irish Times is quite a well respected paper.

I'm not providing a view - I am using the direct evidence of their manifesto and the comments of their leadership, which (as far as I am aware) have never provided a commitment to leaving the single market and customs union.

Your assertion is very weak - in that "progress on new free trade deals with the rest of the world”, is just as likely to mean that were we to leave the single market (something DUP have never said they wanted) then getting deals in place is important.

But there is also:

'Ability to opt-in to EU funds where proven to be cost-effective and add value'

How is that consistent with anything other than remaining part of the single market/customs union.

Bottom line - you stated unequivocally that it was clear that '... both DUP & Tories have in their manifesto a promise to remove UK from single market' - you have provided not a scrap of evidence to justify this. And it can be disproved also unequivocally simply by reading the manifesto in which no promise to remove the UK from the single market exists. In fact not only is there no such commitment but the single market isn't even mentioned.

[Nearly Sane]

So when Article 50 was invoked, there were 730 days till Brexit. 77 days gone since then. Obviously lots of useful negotiations happened, oh wait we decided to have an election and waste 200m holding it. And to try and breach the GFA!

[jakswan]

Again though it is irrelevant as to whether it is a breach. Your entire approach here has been based on badly phrased questions and a ludicrous tu quoque. I pointed that out at the start but you haven't seemed capable of understanding it. I could happily be posting that Sinn Fein need to be taken into govt and it matters not a whit as to the statement that this is a breach of the GFA being true. The argument does not depend on consistency. If an alcoholic tells you drinking too much is bad for you, they aren't wrong because they are necking a bottle of Aftershock while doing so.

It is my understanding that the GDA demands that UK/Irish governments remains independent, not heard you articulate this but I've heard it argued that a supply deal will break that independence and as a result the GDA.   

If you wish to be bound by the GDA and its terms & conditions, a term applies to Irish and UK governments, i.e.  to be independent. If you argue that DUP propping up UK government breaks the UK independence then to be consistent then SF propping up an Irish government would break Irish government independence. 

This is about interpretation of an agreement and consistency.

[Nearly Sane]

It is my understanding that the GDA demands that UK/Irish governments remains independent, not heard you articulate this but I've heard it argued that a supply deal will break that independence and as a result the GDA.   

If you wish to be bound by the GDA and its terms & conditions, a term applies to Irish and UK governments, i.e.  to be independent. If you argue that DUP propping up UK government breaks the UK independence then to be consistent then SF propping up an Irish government would break Irish government independence. 

This is about interpretation of an agreement and consistency.

My argument against the DUP agreement is precisely that it was against the GFA. Why are you saying you haven't heard that argument? It makes no sense for you to do so, since that is the argument I was making?

And again consistency does not affect the rightness of the argument. But your persistent use of the tu quoque fallacy is noted.

[jakswan]

My argument against the DUP agreement is precisely that it was against the GFA. Why are you saying you haven't heard that argument? It makes no sense for you to do so, since that is the argument I was making?

And again consistency does not affect the rightness of the argument. But your persistent use of the tu quoque fallacy is noted.

I think you are failing to see my position, I have already stated your position is consistent. Your interpretation of the GDA agreement is irrelevant, it is SF's that counts, they are not likely to have the same interpretation.

[Nearly Sane]

I think you are failing to see my position, I have already stated your position is consistent. Your interpretation of the GDA agreement is irrelevant, it is SF's that counts, they are not likely to have the same interpretation.

No, I'm pointing out that you think a tu quoque fallacy is a significant. Even, were I or Sinn Fein, to be inconsistent about a statement it does not make the statement that this would be a breach of the GFA wrong. Do you think that an someone necking a bottle of Aftershock and telling you drinking too much is bad, is wrong?

As stated, consistency doesn't make you right or wrong.

[jeremyp]

The only people who for voted specifically for Mother Theresa were the voters in her constituency: it is unfortunate for the rest of us that they did.

Actually, almost nobody bases their voting decision on who the local MP is. Although, technically you are voting only for your local MP, most people will have voted for the party they most want in power, and by extension, that party's leader.

[jeremyp]

Its not a breach, if it was then SF could never be in power in Ireland.

Are they in power in Ireland?

Anyway, the DUP are not in power in the UK. There's no coalition, just an agreement. It still could be bad for the GFA, but I'm sure they can work out something that ticks the legal boxes.

[ProfessorDavey]

Actually, almost nobody bases their voting decision on who the local MP is. Although, technically you are voting only for your local MP, most people will have voted for the party they most want in power, and by extension, that party's leader.

Broadly correct. I agree that relatively few vote for the person rather than the party, but not infinitesimal - particular with a long standing MP there is often a block of personal support voters who like the person even if the party wouldn't otherwise be their first choice.

But there is a further complexity - increasingly we are seeing tactical voting where people aren't voting for the party they most want in power, but voting for a party best place to ensure the party they least want doesn't win power.

[Ricky Spanish]

"The Irish government had been working on the declaration for a number of months prior to the summit but were approached by the Monthy Python sounding British Department for Exiting the EU, who attempted to set up a call between Irish leader Enda Kenny and UK prime minister Theresa May. Mr Kenny did not accept the call and what followed was a barrage of follow-up calls from London to Dublin in further attempts to stall the declaration.

Despite the pressure from Britain, Mr Kenny went forward with the declaration which was unanimously adopted by the other 26 member states."

https://europaunited.eu/2017/06/12/uk-attempted-to-block-irish-unity-clause/

[Aruntraveller]

Theresa May has made much play of the fact that there are no magic money trees.

This is very odd. A relative of mine in Northern Ireland says he can see young sapling money trees springing up everywhere.

Yes this post was Maydup.

[SusanDoris]

There was something on the radio yesterday about France or Germany wanting to take over the central banking or something for handling the Euro. Anybody know anything more about this? Do you think it is likely?

[Rhiannon]

It's the clearing thing, isn't it? I think it's hugely likely. Why on earth would the EU want the Euro handled outside of the EU?

[Nearly Sane]

Rhiannon is correct, it's clearing ... See link. I suspect it is almost certain


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40264755

[Aruntraveller]

It's the clearing thing, isn't it? I think it's hugely likely. Why on earth would the EU want the Euro handled outside of the EU?

Yep - it's all these little things like 80,000 jobs and tens of billions of pounds that are made up for by a random figure on the side of a bus.

[floo]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-40271763

Another good reason why an alliance with the DUP is a very bad idea!

[Nearly Sane]

Some interesting breakdown of the voting



https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election/

[SusanDoris]

Thanks for replies above. Wouldit severely damage the position of London, or dent it to a position from which it could recover?

[jeremyp]

Thanks for replies above. Wouldit severely damage the position of London, or dent it to a position from which it could recover?

In combination with all the other negative effects of Brexit, I think it would be catastrophic.

[Nearly Sane]

Thanks for replies above. Wouldit severely damage the position of London, or dent it to a position from which it could recover?

On its own recoverable perhaps, but it is part of a number of issues that mean London's position as a financial centre would be questionable. See passporting, link below. Now there is an argument that it could work as an off shore haven and be less regulated but I don't think it is a very good one and is at odds with the idea of reducing immigration


http://www.cityam.com/244237/you-need-know-passporting-post-Brexit-vote

[SusanDoris]

Thank you for further replies, and for the link, NS. I listened down quite a way, and it sounds as if it is not entirely doom and gloom - yet!!

[Nearly Sane]

The lovely Michael

http://newsthump.com/2017/06/12/everyone-planning-to-vote-tory-now-that-michael-gove-is-back/

[floo]

The lovely Michael

http://newsthump.com/2017/06/12/everyone-planning-to-vote-tory-now-that-michael-gove-is-back/

GHASTLY little man !>

[Nearly Sane]

GHASTLY little man !>

I always found him to be rather lovely and charming. He's certainly one of the wittiest people I have known.  Just wrong.