But there is an extra dimension here, that of stake. Now everybody who has partaken in this debate has talked about odds but not stake with the exception of Wiggs and Rhiannon. My contention is that this is either conscious or unconscious avoidance.
How does one work out the probability of God or naturalism or any unfalsifiable?
I don't really get what you mean by 'stake' here. To the best of my knowledge I don't have a stake on whether any god exists or not. If one does, so be it. However, as I don't find anything which suggests one(or more than one) actually exists, why on earth should I bother with something which does not seem to affect my life, and, to all intents and purposes, does not even seem to exist? Why should I have a 'stake'in any particular god existing then? If I unconsciously avoid the idea of a god existing, then I wouldn't know, because that would be an unconscious process. However, I regard this as pure speculation on your part and, unless you have arguments forthcoming which backs up your contention as regards myself, I can quite easily reject it.
I see nothing which suggests that your God exists. So, in the absence of such evidence, and with the added incentive that much of what we already know can be explained without recourse to your God, I tend to think that the probability of your God existing is less than the probability of your God not existing.
The natural world has the inherent potential quality of greater explanatory power in reducing the falsifiability that it promotes in any of its elements and because of this it is amenable to testing and modifying its explanations on an intersubjective scale. This does not mean that supernaturalism does not exist, of course. However, because it seems to rely on the personal faith of its adherents, there seems to be no way in which it can be falsified at all. You pays yer money, and takes yer choice.(shrugs)