That's OK then?

[bluehillside Retd.]

enki,

Vlad,

https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy

Just scroll down to I.3

Oh well, if you're gonna use facts and stuff you can prove anything with those. Pah!

Vlad reminds me here of Sparky who used to post here - he blithely asserted that earthquakes were on the increase, and this supposed phenomenon was evidence of his god's displeasure or of a second coming or something. When it was explained to him that his claim was utter bollocks he threw lots of obfuscation at the problem, then disappeared.

What are the odds that Vlad will do something similar I wonder?

[Steve H]

Steve H,

First, his assertion was that life expectancy increases already have begun to slow down. As a generalised phenomenon, there’s no evidence for this claim that I can find.

Second, why do you think that living to 200 is “obviously impossible”? This chap for example (who works in the field) thinks that someone who’ll live to 200 has already been born:

https://www.quora.com/Has-the-first-person-to-live-to-200-years-old-been-born-yet

So far as I know there’s no absolute barrier to possible human age, and who can say what technologies will come along in future that’ll extend it beyond anything we can imagine just now?

Well, maybe, but that'll be due to medical advances which haven't happened yet. In the meantime, the margin is bound to narrow.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

So that's a "no" then I take it - you don't have evidence that life expectancy increases are slowing down as a globalised phenomenon. The point by the way is that - while NHS cuts or bad weather (or both) has apparently recently had a deleterious effect in the UK - a whole list of other countries are pulling ahead of us.   

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/life-expectancy-in-the-u-s-is-falling-and-drug-overdose-deaths-are-soaring/

[Walt Zingmatilder]

enki,

Oh well, if you're gonna use facts and stuff you can prove anything with those. Pah!

Vlad reminds me here of Sparky who used to post here - he blithely asserted that earthquakes were on the increase, and this supposed phenomenon was evidence of his god's displeasure or of a second coming or something. When it was explained to him that his claim was utter bollocks he threw lots of obfuscation at the problem, then disappeared.

What are the odds that Vlad will do something similar I wonder?

I am not saying indicators aren't 'globally' on the up hence with regard to your suggested localised 'blips' the thread is titled ''That's OK then''?. I am saying that in the parts of the world traditionally beneficiaries of what Pinker describes as enlightenment are on the turn and I am suggesting that that is the end game of enlightenment and arguments from Pinker that it is some kind of infallible realised Pollyannaism.

Life expectency in the US and UK IS falling. That is a lot of significant ''local'', Hillside.
Globally there is more wealth Hillside........which is ''localised'' in the hands of the few but following your logic ''That's OK then.''

[bluehillside Retd.]

Vladdo,

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/life-expectancy-in-the-u-s-is-falling-and-drug-overdose-deaths-are-soaring/

And he's actually done it - he's scored the hat trick of wrongness!

Genius incompetence, just genius...

So now we know that Vladdo is capable of finding localised examples of life expectancy increases slowing down, but also - thanks to enki's research - that the global phenomenon isn't "on the turn" at all we can conclude safely I think that Vladdo's bizarre assertions about the failure of post enlightenment thinking is the crock it always appeared to be.

Coda: incidentally, if you want to find examples of lousy life outcomes across a range of measures then the obvious place to look is the theocracies, closely followed by countries that aren't theocratic by government but are heavily in thrall to various religious beliefs. Funny that.       

[bluehillside Retd.]

Vladdo,

I am not saying indicators aren't 'globally' on the up hence with regard to your suggested localised 'blips' the thread is titled ''That's OK then''?. I am saying that in the parts of the world traditionally beneficiaries of what Pinker describes as enlightenment are on the turn and I am suggesting that that is the end game of enlightenment and arguments from Pinker that it is some kind of infallible realised Pollyannaism.

Then your suggestion is wrong. Some parts of the world certainly are suffering slow downs or even reversals (due to localised issues like drug use and NHS cuts that are bugger all to do with post enlightenment values) but the great majority are pushing ahead as enki's data showed. 

Life expectency in the US and UK IS falling. That is a lot of significant ''local'', Hillside.

No it isn't. First, it's not true - life expectancy in the UK isn't "falling" at all, but the rate of increase has declined - probably because of savage NHS and social care cuts, both of which (in an irony that will be lost on you) are themselves fundamentally reflections of post enlightenment thinking. 

Second, it's wouldn't be "a lot" in any case when expressed in the context of overall, global increases in life expectancy (and in disease reduction, and in increased literacy, and in reductions in teen pregnancies, and in...etc).

Globally there is more wealth Hillside........which is ''localised'' in the hands of the few but following your logic ''That's OK then.''

Nope. No idea.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Vladdo,

And he's actually done it - he's scored the hat trick of wrongness!

Genius incompetence, just genius...

So now we know that Vladdo is capable of finding localised examples of life expectancy increases slowing down, but also - thanks to enki's research - that the global phenomenon isn't "on the turn" at all we can conclude safely I think that Vladdo's bizarre assertions about the failure of post enlightenment thinking is the crock it always appeared to be.

Coda: incidentally, if you want to find examples of lousy life outcomes across a range of measures then the obvious place to look is the theocracies, closely followed by countries that aren't theocratic by government but are heavily in thrall to various religious beliefs. Funny that.     

Shrill and hysterical.
We know how 'growth' figures can be presented Hillside.
We know scientism leads to ''As a species'' ism as demonstrated in duff, meaningless yet heartwarming statements like we are on the threshold of knowing the basic structure of the universe. When of course only a few do. It's the old Roddenberry thing that we are all shipmates on a star trek AKA Pollyanna ism. And that's before we see that other growth factors are being ignored. Growth in global temperatures, growth in antibiotic resistance etc. growth in concentration of wealth....but hey , it's OK because ''AS a species......''.

I'm afraid while Antitheists argue that we can go home and ''stop worrying''. I see all sorts of people who realise that 'enlightenment' is not an infallible process. They do worry that in the UK and US life expectancy is falling.....because these traditionally are places where the opposite has been true.

[Rhiannon]

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-decline-of-violence/

[bluehillside Retd.]

Vladdo,

Me (Reply 25)

Oh well, if you're gonna use facts and stuff you can prove anything with those. Pah!

Vlad reminds me here of Sparky who used to post here - he blithely asserted that earthquakes were on the increase, and this supposed phenomenon was evidence of his god's displeasure or of a second coming or something. When it was explained to him that his claim was utter bollocks he threw lots of obfuscation at the problem, then disappeared.

What are the odds that Vlad will do something similar I wonder?

Vladdo (Reply 31)

Shrill and hysterical.

We know how 'growth' figures can be presented Hillside.
We know scientism leads to ''As a species'' ism as demonstrated in duff, meaningless yet heartwarming statements like we are on the threshold of knowing the basic structure of the universe. When of course only a few do. It's the old Roddenberry thing that we are all shipmates on a star trek AKA Pollyanna ism. And that's before we see that other growth factors are being ignored. Growth in global temperatures, growth in antibiotic resistance etc. growth in concentration of wealth....but hey , it's OK because ''AS a species......''.

I'm afraid while Antitheists argue that we can go home and ''stop worrying''. I see all sorts of people who realise that 'enlightenment' is not an infallible process. They do worry that in the UK and US life expectancy is falling.....because these traditionally are places where the opposite has been true.

Truly I have the power of prophecy!

[ippy]

I am not saying indicators aren't 'globally' on the up hence with regard to your suggested localised 'blips' the thread is titled ''That's OK then''?. I am saying that in the parts of the world traditionally beneficiaries of what Pinker describes as enlightenment are on the turn and I am suggesting that that is the end game of enlightenment and arguments from Pinker that it is some kind of infallible realised Pollyannaism.

Life expectency in the US and UK IS falling. That is a lot of significant ''local'', Hillside.
Globally there is more wealth Hillside........which is ''localised'' in the hands of the few but following your logic ''That's OK then.''

Ever heard of a plateau, Vlad, or is that too deep for you? We are bound to arrive at them from time to time, in the quest for knowledge; 'we', as in we humans.

Regards ippy   

[jeremyp]

One cannot deny there has been progress but we are now on the turn.

Progress is not a one dimensional thing. Rosling knew that but you are flagrantly misrepresenting his position.

I guess you just like being miserable.