Local Government Elections

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I think the Tory party functions on most things - But not Brexit which is the crucial thing they have to function on. I didn't mention this being less significance, indeed I think it's of greater significance since if it blows up, I can't see how they stay in govt and think there would be  a split. 


The point about the Tories being UKIP being too simplistic is that it's merely support that they used to have and that wasn't a problem for them. That they appear to have gained some voters that went from Labour to UKIP, isn't an issue either. Yu yourself have been noting that the hostile environment isn't a problem.

yes the tories assimilated UKIP. Will that now attract Blairites who cannot find comfort with Corbyn, not sure.
Will a Blairite attract Conservatives? Had chance, should have worked, Muffed it.
Who is the only politician to have attract new voters and not recycled old UKippers? Corbyn.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Yes the tories assimilated UKIP. Will that now attract Blairites who cannot find comfort with Corbyn, not sure.
Will a Blairite attract Conservatives? Had chance, should have worked, Muffed it. Took Umbridge, disappeared since 2015
Who is the only politician to have attract new voters and not recycled old UKippers? Corbyn.

[Nearly Sane]

yes the tories assimilated UKIP. Will that now attract Blairites who cannot find comfort with Corbyn, not sure.
Will a Blairite attract Conservatives? Had chance, should have worked, Muffed it.
Who is the only politician to have attract new voters and not recycled old UKippers? Corbyn.

Again you go down this simplistic route of labelling people, I don't think there will be many who supported Blair rushing to the Tories, I don't see that as what they are aiming for here. But that's not being stopped by UKIP, it's stopped by Brexit which puts a ceiling on the Tory vote but one with sufficient leeway to allow the to be elected.  Both parties at the last election had a rise in their votes, and while Corbyn did better amongst newer voters he did worse amongst older previously Labour voters. As already covered, this result doesn't really move us on, and it is future events if the election is in 2022 that will determine the result.

[Nearly Sane]

UKIP is like the 'Black Death' says own official in a positive manner!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44002060

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Again you go down this simplistic route of labelling people, I don't think there will be many who supported Blair rushing to the Tories, I don't see that as what they are aiming for here. But that's not being stopped by UKIP, it's stopped by Brexit which puts a ceiling on the Tory vote but one with sufficient leeway to allow the to be elected.  Both parties at the last election had a rise in their votes, and while Corbyn did better amongst newer voters he did worse amongst older previously Labour voters. As already covered, this result doesn't really move us on, and it is future events if the election is in 2022 that will determine the result.

I'm afraid people label themselves in elections and commit to that by putting a big X in the box next to the label.
In terms of Older voter vs Young voter...is that a straight swap?
Another take on this election is that it looks like status quo as if the message from the whole electorate is this is what we told you the last time and in terms of the Referendum the time before that.
So if that is so is it a blip or labour high water and the Conservatives are going to defy political gravity and go on to a landslide or what? Because that largely seems to be the narrative but is that realistic.

And what does Plymouth mean since that is the only real reverse of the election ? Does it mean that the Tories had the west country but are beginning to lose it?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

People who want a Blairite, slick, young, thrusting, centrist type to form the next labour government should remind themselves that people who fitted the profile did not want to be seen in opposition. Which you rather have to be and do before you get to be in government.

I don't think these people are necessarily working for the tories or are vehemently anti Corbyn but are concerned with image and a preoccupation with not looking like a loser. Cameron had that preoccupation in spades hence his swift exit, after he had announced he was throwing the towel in anyway.

[Nearly Sane]

I'm afraid people label themselves in elections and commit to that by putting a big X in the box next to the label.
In terms of Older voter vs Young voter...is that a straight swap?
Another take on this election is that it looks like status quo as if the message from the whole electorate is this is what we told you the last time and in terms of the Referendum the time before that.
So if that is so is it a blip or labour high water and the Conservatives are going to defy political gravity and go on to a landslide or what? Because that largely seems to be the narrative but is that realistic.

And what does Plymouth mean since that is the only real reverse of the election ? Does it mean that the Tories had the west country but are beginning to lose it?

So people label themselves by how they vote but they also might in your view be choosing an overall vote that the country somehow chooses by some form of mind reading?

Again I think that trying to read something into a partial set of elections when there has been minimal movements in the opinion polls, and where the election is scheduled 4 YEARS away, with huge policy decisions to are to be made rather than talked about is pointless

[Walt Zingmatilder]

So people label themselves by how they vote but they also might in your view be choosing an overall vote that the country somehow chooses by some form of mind reading?

Again I think that trying to read something into a partial set of elections when there has been minimal movements in the opinion polls, and where the election is scheduled 4 YEARS away, with huge policy decisions to are to be made rather than talked about is pointless

That sounds in the realms of ''wait, something magical is going to happen'' though.

[Nearly Sane]

That sounds in the realms of ''wait, something magical is going to happen'' though.

No, it's saying nothing about 'magical', or even saying wait. It's just noting some facts that means that a prediction now would be a mug's game. We've already discussed some of the major issues that are about to hit, one of these, Brexit, being in iceberg terms big enough to sink either f the SSS Tory or S.S. Labour, and quite possibly both. 

[ippy]

I think the BBC gives unbiased reporting.

Far, or even further than that from the truth L R, the BBC behaves in a similar way towards us, just as the paddles do at the bottom of a pin ball table, every time it communicates with us. Now who's in control of those paddles?

Regards ippy

[Walt Zingmatilder]

No, it's saying nothing about 'magical', or even saying wait. It's just noting some facts that means that a prediction now would be a mug's game. We've already discussed some of the major issues that are about to hit, one of these, Brexit, being in iceberg terms big enough to sink either f the SSS Tory or S.S. Labour, and quite possibly both.

That sounds like the kind of prediction you are counselling against.
I think rather than making a prediction of the result.....I haven't, I'm merely trying to understand the irrational love affair with the Conservatives who are a  proven danger to welfare and trying to work out when and if it is going to end.....rather like having a rash on the dong and wondering how and when I can get rid of it.

[Nearly Sane]

That sounds like the kind of prediction you are counselling against.
I think rather than making a prediction of the result.....I haven't, I'm merely trying to understand the irrational love affair with the Conservatives who are a  proven danger to welfare and trying to work out when and if it is going to end.....rather like having a rash on the dong and wondering how and when I can get rid of it.

It's not a prediction of the 2022 election which is what I had mentioned as being something to avoid predicting. Up till now I thought we were looking at a more discursive approach hence your ongoing points about what are the problems for the parties.  You seem to be asking here for how you change people's minds - best way is join a party you believe enough in and get out and campaign. I don't see much point in just wondering when something is going to end other than the intellectual interest.

[Nearly Sane]

Far, or even further than that from the truth L R, the BBC behaves in a similar way towards us, just as the paddles do at the bottom of a pin ball table, every time it communicates with us. Now who's in control of those paddles?

Regards ippy

I take it you are not of the opinion that Vlad is that it's all Tory propaganda? If you do disagree with him, then that would be 3 different takes expressed on this in this thread about this. Just wondering if you, LR, or Vlad want to put up any facts to back up your opinions?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I take it you are not of the opinion that Vlad is that it's all Tory propaganda? If you do disagree with him, then that would be 3 different takes expressed on this in this thread about this. Just wondering if you, LR, or Vlad want to put up any facts to back up your opinions?

Firstly recruitment of those fronting programmes particularly of a news nature vis education, class.
Secondly, if you compile a list of ways in which news staff say on an election special or any news programme could be bias and it is fulfilled.
Thirdly, I am pretty sure BBC coverage has on occasions shown to be bias to the right wing.
Fourthly comparison with the journalism of other news organisation. I would say that sky news is more balanced than the BBC.Brexit coverage showed that BBC coverage when not bias is anodyne.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/17/bbc-leftwing-bias-non-existent-myth

A study by Cardiff University academics, funded by the BBC Trust, was published in August 2013, examining the BBC's coverage of a broad range of issues. One of the findings was the dominance of party political sources. In coverage of immigration, the EU and religion, these accounted for 49.4% of all source appearances in 2007 and 54.8% in 2012. The data also showed that the Conservative Party received significantly more airtime than the Labour Party. In 2012 Conservative leader David Cameron outnumbered Labour leader Ed Miliband in appearances by a factor of nearly four to one (53 to 15), while Conservative cabinet members and ministers outnumbered their Labour counterparts by more than four to one (67 to 15).[16]
Former Director General of the BBC, Greg Dyke, has criticised the BBC as part of a "Westminster conspiracy" to maintain the British political system.[17]

[Nearly Sane]

Firstly recruitment of those fronting programmes particularly of a news nature vis education, class.
Secondly, if you compile a list of ways in which news staff say on an election special or any news programme could be bias and it is fulfilled.
Thirdly, I am pretty sure BBC coverage has on occasions shown to be bias to the right wing.
Fourthly comparison with the journalism of other news organisation. I would say that sky news is more balanced than the BBC.Brexit coverage showed that BBC coverage when not bias is anodyne.

That's a set of measures, which you haven't made any justification of, and then a couple of further assertions. No facts.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

That's a set of measures, which you haven't made any justification of, and then a couple of further assertions. No facts.

A study by Cardiff University academics, funded by the BBC Trust, was published in August 2013, examining the BBC's coverage of a broad range of issues. One of the findings was the dominance of party political sources. In coverage of immigration, the EU and religion, these accounted for 49.4% of all source appearances in 2007 and 54.8% in 2012. The data also showed that the Conservative Party received significantly more airtime than the Labour Party. In 2012 Conservative leader David Cameron outnumbered Labour leader Ed Miliband in appearances by a factor of nearly four to one (53 to 15), while Conservative cabinet members and ministers outnumbered their Labour counterparts by more than four to one (67 to 15).[16]
Former Director General of the BBC, Greg Dyke, has criticised the BBC as part of a "Westminster conspiracy" to maintain the British political system.[17]

[Walt Zingmatilder]

http://news-watch.co.uk/bbc-concedes-political-bias-but-only-against-corbynistas/

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Analysis by Sky. results in terms of a General election..........................................................................Hung parliament.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Lib dems......... on the road back to useful idiocy?

[Nearly Sane]

A study by Cardiff University academics, funded by the BBC Trust, was published in August 2013, examining the BBC's coverage of a broad range of issues. One of the findings was the dominance of party political sources. In coverage of immigration, the EU and religion, these accounted for 49.4% of all source appearances in 2007 and 54.8% in 2012. The data also showed that the Conservative Party received significantly more airtime than the Labour Party. In 2012 Conservative leader David Cameron outnumbered Labour leader Ed Miliband in appearances by a factor of nearly four to one (53 to 15), while Conservative cabinet members and ministers outnumbered their Labour counterparts by more than four to one (67 to 15).[16]
Former Director General of the BBC, Greg Dyke, has criticised the BBC as part of a "Westminster conspiracy" to maintain the British political system.[17]

Brilliant, I like this, at least someone going for analysis! Any refutation those that disagree with the BBC being a hive of rightwingedness?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Iain Dale on LBC desperate to make this look like a complete rout of Labour. Like that Holiday advert, Corbyn could rightfully claim that he shouldn't be here since according to the script he should have resigned after the referendum and should have been routed in 2017.
Of course Blairites such as KInnock are coming out of the woodwork demonstrating remorse and apology for being Labour. That really worked in 2015.

[Nearly Sane]

Iain Dale on LBC desperate to make this look like a complete rout of Labour. Like that Holiday advert, Corbyn could rightfully claim that he shouldn't be here since according to the script he should have resigned after the referendum and should have been routed in 2017.
Of course Blairites such as KInnock are coming out of the woodwork demonstrating remorse and apology for being Labour. That really worked in 2015.

Yep, it's not a rout of Corbyn. Part of the problem though was the indulgence about 'winning' London. Lots of this doesn't matter because already discussed, nothing much has changed and that includes the UKIP vote as compared to the GE.

[Nearly Sane]

I see the BBC have just projected that for a GE it would mean Labour 35% Tories 35%, Lib Dems 16% with no statement of it not being a poll of the entirety. Obvious evidence that they are Lib Dem biased. Or maybe just incompetent stupid.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I see the BBC have just projected that for a GE it would mean Labour 35% Tories 35%, Lib Dems 16% with no statement of it not being a poll of the entirety. Obvious evidence that they are Lib Dem biased. Or maybe just incompetent stupid.

A worry for the National Tories is that many tory councils have complained about central Government Tory funding and there is the chance that people have genuinely appreciated their efforts on local voters behalf. That would mean that the Tories could have a successful local election followed by a disasterous general election.

That of course would have to be put to the test.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Where have the Blairites been these past 3 years?
Miliband who left not to queer his brothers pitch is still absent, Chukka has popped up on Iaiaian Dale, Steven Kinnock ditto with the old Milibandian apologising for being Labour schtick, Burnham did a Boris, ditto the guy in London, Mandelson, looking for the elixir of eternal life, Jarvis 3 years ago opted out to spend more time with his family only to find time for two jobs three years later.... Have these guys even got a plan or a political machinery? How are they going to rescue the Labour party?