voters for labour without Corbyn?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Can we the trust the statement ''I'd vote labour if it wasn't for Corbyn''?

I would say no for the following reasons.

These people are insufficiently politically savvy to know that there is no obvious contender to or heir of Corbyn.
The 2015 opinion polling. The polling companies were criticised but I don't think hedging or even tactical misinformation amongst people polled was taken sufficiently seriously as an idea.
 

[wigginhall]

I think it's true for some people, but there are probably also 'I'll stop voting Labour if you replace Corbyn' people.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I think it's true for some people, but there are probably also 'I'll stop voting Labour if you replace Corbyn' people.

I'm sure that's right but i'm thinking that since there is no obvious contender to or heir of Corbyn any new contender would be a foist or a parachutist.

Therefore whereas the non labour voter saying they would if it wasn't for Corbyn needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. The person who would leave if Corbyn were replaced should be taken more seriously.

Let's face it at the time just subsequent to Milliband  the party was not at all taken seriously,  you could take it for granted that Cameron had another thirteen years to go with an opposition who knew what was what and complied dutifully with the narrative that labour had to be apologetic, and the leadership contendership was full of beautiful moderates.

Where did all that and where did they go to.......My lovely?

labour therefore is in a far, far better position now than it would have been. 

[jeremyp]

Can we the trust the statement ''I'd vote labour if it wasn't for Corbyn''?

I would say no for the following reasons.

These people are insufficiently politically savvy

What? All of them?

to know that there is no obvious contender to or heir of Corbyn.

Well Corbyn wasn't an obvious contender for the leader and I think he still isn't.

The 2015 opinion polling. The polling companies were criticised but I don't think hedging or even tactical misinformation amongst people polled was taken sufficiently seriously as an idea.

Since 2015, there has been a disastrous Brexit poll and a disastrous general election (except for the Scottish Tories). 2015 is ancient history. Forget about it.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

What? All of them?

Well Corbyn wasn't an obvious contender for the leader and I think he still isn't.
Since 2015, there has been a disastrous Brexit poll and a disastrous general election (except for the Scottish Tories). 2015 is ancient history. Forget about it.

Well some of them may be savvy. Savvy Tories who have realised that the disgruntled labour voter act might sway people.

No he wasn't an obvious contender but where and who, now, are the contenders?

2015 is the last time we saw people who might have been contenders. Where are they now, for example why has Chukka just resurfaced in labour will never get into power unless they realise they will never get into power mode? Dan Jarvis hotly tipped as a contender couldn't find time for national labour politics in 2015 now apparently is an MP and Mayor of Yorkshire The 2015 apologising for being labour routine which I think certain Labour celebs not active in national politics are retreading is making a comeback and after reading Katy Balls of the Spectator the tories no longer fear Jeremy and are partying like it's 2015.

2015 has made a comeback Jeremy....if only we could forget it.

[jeremyp]

Well some of them may be savvy. Savvy Tories who have realised that the disgruntled labour voter act might sway people.

You're still making assumptions. I think there are plenty of centre and centre right people who don't call themselves Tory but won't vote for Labour because of Jeremy Corbyn.

No he wasn't an obvious contender but where and who, now, are the contenders?

It's not relevant to your question.

2015 is the last time we saw people who might have been contenders. Where are they now, for example why has Chukka just resurfaced in labour will never get into power unless they realise they will never get into power mode? Dan Jarvis hotly tipped as a contender couldn't find time for national labour politics in 2015 now apparently is an MP and Mayor of Yorkshire The 2015 apologising for being labour routine which I think certain Labour celebs not active in national politics are retreading is making a comeback and after reading Katy Balls of the Spectator the tories no longer fear Jeremy and are partying like it's 2015.

2015 has made a comeback Jeremy....if only we could forget it.

Well, if you are talking about credible Labour candidates to be prime minister and why there aren't any, 2015 is not far enough back. Everything went wrong in 2010 when the Ed Miliband was elected.That was the start of the purge of everybody associated with New Labour. Unfortunately, that meant purging all of the best members of the PLP because of course, the best members of the PLP were in the cabinet and hence associated with New Labour.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

You're still making assumptions. I think there are plenty of centre and centre right people who don't call themselves Tory but won't vote for Labour because of Jeremy Corbyn.

It's not relevant to your question.


Well, if you are talking about credible Labour candidates to be prime minister and why there aren't any, 2015 is not far enough back. Everything went wrong in 2010 when the Ed Miliband was elected.That was the start of the purge of everybody associated with New Labour. Unfortunately, that meant purging all of the best members of the PLP because of course, the best members of the PLP were in the cabinet and hence associated with New Labour.

I'm certain Jeremy Corbyn was not active in 2010 and certainly the withdrawees, the tipped and the actual leadership contenders were unpurged immediately after Milliband only to immediately disappear from the scene with the exception at a pinch of Hilary, Yvette and Owen. Their disappearance with the exception of Hilary and Owen was largely self exile therefore any reappearance is a bit rich.

Going back to 2010 who could have been a contender? I can only think of David who lost to his brother, went away and never came back even though I think people wanted him too.

Do you not think there is some truth in these people not wanting to be seen in opposition because ''it's not a good look''? I think the party is also stymied by the tory generated narrative that the only person fit to be a leader of the party is the person who admits labour aren't fit to govern IMHO.

Also which of the potential leaders of 2010 not only refused to get into hock with the Sun et al but managed to override the press at an election?

[jeremyp]

Going back to 2010 who could have been a contender? I can only think of David who lost to his brother, went away and never came back even though I think people wanted him too.

David Miliband was the obvious choice for leader at the time to anybody except the people who voted.

Do you not think there is some truth in these people not wanting to be seen in opposition because ''it's not a good look''?

No. I think DM left politics because he lost and he realised that had been his best chance. The only way he could have recovered the situation would have been to set up in opposition to his own brother. And that certainly isn't a good look.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

David Miliband was the obvious choice for leader at the time to anybody except the people who voted.
No. I think DM left politics because he lost and he realised that had been his best chance. The only way he could have recovered the situation would have been to set up in opposition to his own brother. And that certainly isn't a good look.

Yes I seem to remember the tories being onto that angle and what you say doesn't contradict my idea that David was obviously part of a generation that didn't want to be around as a prominent opposition politician.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Rawnsley joins the Labour bash.
But I think there might be something in the result being that the GBP in squadron numbers want the smack of right wing attitude and firmness towards foreigners and those what sympathise with them.

It's the same the whole world over isn't it a cryin shame Hard brexiters they get the pleasure soft brexiters get the blame.

So Chukka, Andrew and Alistair et al what should labour do and what can they do after a vote which if extrapolated to a general election sees in most models Corbyn in number 10 anyway.

[ProfessorDavey]

Can we the trust the statement ''I'd vote labour if it wasn't for Corbyn''?

I would say no for the following reasons.

These people are insufficiently politically savvy to know that there is no obvious contender to or heir of Corbyn.
The 2015 opinion polling. The polling companies were criticised but I don't think hedging or even tactical misinformation amongst people polled was taken sufficiently seriously as an idea.

I am one of those people who would vote for labour of it wasn't for Corbyn - indeed I always did, was a party member and actually stood as a candidate a couple of times. I can think of plenty of others who are the same - indeed many were once fellow members of the party.

I don't think I (and others) can be characterised as being insufficiently politically savvy.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I am one of those people who would vote for labour of it wasn't for Corbyn - indeed I always did, was a party member and actually stood as a candidate a couple of times. I can think of plenty of others who are the same - indeed many were once fellow members of the party.

I don't think I (and others) can be characterised as being insufficiently politically savvy.

OK then where does your vote go then?
It doesn't?
To a party which has all but imploded?
To a minor party which has yet to consolidate support locally?
To a party which has imploded?
or to a party which has completely lurched rightwards and could be argued  is the antithesis of any Labour thus making any claim of would vote labour rather hollow?

The first four options do not look very savvy to me and the last one is savvy for someone helping the antilabour/status quo.

Who or what would ensure your vote for Labour?

[ProfessorDavey]

OK then where does your vote go then?

In the 2017 general election and in the recent local election it went to the LibDems. In the former they came second to the Tories (this is a seat that Labour won in 97 and 01), with Labour trailing far behind in 3rd. In the latter the LibDems won, as they always do in my ward.

Who or what would ensure your vote for Labour?

A pragmatic centre left leader, who is actually charismatic and a leader. My preferred choice would be Chukka - he impresses me massively.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

In the 2017 general election and in the recent local election it went to the LibDems. In the former they came second to the Tories (this is a seat that Labour won in 97 and 01), with Labour trailing far behind in 3rd. In the latter the LibDems won, as they always do in my ward.
A pragmatic centre left leader, who is actually charismatic and a leader. My preferred choice would be Chukka - he impresses me massively.

He withdrew from leadership and then disappeared from frontline opposition politics because he did not want to be seen in opposition and followed the Conservative and national narrative put around by Toby Young that Labour would never again be electable. Why and How can Chukka be considered a serious candidate after a three year sabbatical?

[Rhiannon]

Well Labour MPs have historically got away with throwing punches.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Well Labour MPs have historically got away with throwing punches.

If he had been a backbench Labour MP would he had got away with it. I think not since the Labour MP for Falkirk didn't.
The point being how can a person who has withdrawn from frontline opposition hope to become instantly Party leader? and if not instantly........ in how long a time?

If you have not thought these things through then surely a statement like ''I'd vote labour if it wasn't for Corbyn'' is facile and unconvincing.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

A pragmatic centre left leader, who is actually charismatic and a leader. My preferred choice would be Chukka - he impresses me massively.

And how would you respond to the person who said ''I'd vote Labour if it wasn't for Umunna''?

[SteveH]

I'm a bit sceptical about people who say they'd vote Labour if it wasn't for Corbyn. I'm reminded of a member of my then church, years ago, who said that she'd always vote for a candidate who was a committed Christian, regardless of party (which is itself very naive). A few years later, Paul Boateng stood for Labour in our constituency, and was the only candidate who was openly a committed Christian. I reminded her of her earlier comment, and she said "yes, but he's Labour, so I can't vote for him".

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I'm a bit sceptical about people who say they'd vote Labour if it wasn't for Corbyn. I'm reminded of a member of my then church, years ago, who said that she'd always vote for a candidate who was a committed Christian, regardless of party (which is itself very naive). A few years later, Paul Boateng stood for Labour in our constituency, and was the only candidate who was openly a committed Christian. I reminded her of her earlier comment, and she said "yes, but he's Labour, so I can't vote for him".

Thanks, another reason for taking this Vote Labour if it weren't for Corbyn with a pinch of Salt.

[ProfessorDavey]

And how would you respond to the person who said ''I'd vote Labour if it wasn't for Umunna''?

Not sure it is for me to respond - if that is their view so be it.

But we've seen this before - there were plenty on the hard left who wouldn't vote Labour while Blair was leader. Many of them left the party. But regardless of missing the votes of these supposed 'core' Labour voters Blair managed to win 3 elections each with either a landslide or a comfortable working majority. Point being, you win elections broadly from the centre ground, or certainly you need to be seen as the less extreme of the main parties. Hence Corbyn's problem and why I cannot see him winning an election, let alone a working majority.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Not sure it is for me to respond - if that is their view so be it.

But we've seen this before - there were plenty on the hard left who wouldn't vote Labour while Blair was leader. Many of them left the party. But regardless of missing the votes of these supposed 'core' Labour voters Blair managed to win 3 elections each with either a landslide or a comfortable working majority. Point being, you win elections broadly from the centre ground, or certainly you need to be seen as the less extreme of the main parties. Hence Corbyn's problem and why I cannot see him winning an election, let alone a working majority.

Umunna has not put himself in the position where he could be leader of the opposition.
Not many from the section of the party which you argue would win labour the vote have been in that position since they absented themselves the field of frontline opposition politics en masse after the Referendum.

If we need a reminder of when and how the rats left what they thought was a sinking ship here is John Rentoul in the Independent at the time.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/labour-leadership-tom-watson-angela-eagle-lisa-nandy-keir-starmer-who-are-the-candidates-who-could-a7108186.html

Even out of those who remained Kier, Tom and to some extent Yvette, who out of them has distinguished themselves as the next leader?

I myself was disappointed that Dan Jarvis didn't stand since his square jawed ex army practical Labour was I felt exactly what we needed against Cameronian chinless spinning.

Dan didn't get involved for perfectly laudable reasons but now three years later not only has one job but two jobs one of which at a pinch puts him on a Boris Johnson style Ark to the top Job. He is where Boris was eight years ago so now Dan is wholly inappropriate as the 2022 candidate.

Corbyn though turned out to be a phenomenon. First Garnering a membership Labour are not a dying party in terms of membership, secondly opening up a new constituency of voters, youth, thirdly saving the party by not resigning in 2016, Charismatically raising the vote for Labour at the 2017 election and overturning the tory majority and
finally in extrapolation of the vote of 2018 coming out as the party, which by coalition or confidence and supply or merely just not being able to stomach the tories, that would be in government.

If there are people that think Corbyn should not be leader....what are they doing about it? Since just getting Corbyn to resign and worrying about the rest after is not a solution.

[jeremyp]

Corbyn though turned out to be a phenomenon. First Garnering a membership Labour are not a dying party in terms of membership, secondly opening up a new constituency of voters, youth, thirdly saving the party by not resigning in 2016, Charismatically raising the vote for Labour at the 2017 election and overturning the tory majority and
finally in extrapolation of the vote of 2018 coming out as the party, which by coalition or confidence and supply or merely just not being able to stomach the tories, that would be in government.

And yet the government is in complete disarray. It looks like whatever deal they get on Brexit will only satisfy a small minority of people. However, Labour is only polling on level pegging with the Tories. Labour should be annihilating the Conservatives at the moment. Corbyn is shit and the cracks are only papered over by the fact that May is also shit.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

And yet the government is in complete disarray. It looks like whatever deal they get on Brexit will only satisfy a small minority of people. However, Labour is only polling on level pegging with the Tories. Labour should be annihilating the Conservatives at the moment. Corbyn is shit and the cracks are only papered over by the fact that May is also shit.

Corbyn is less shit than Miliband who was treated as victor in waiting right up until the last moment when it was all revealed as an illusion. Miliband represents the kind of Labour you think cuts it but was easily cut down for being so empty, so apologetic about its continuing existence it was easily felled by pointing out that Miliband couldn't eat a bacon sandwich without looking odd.

The rule that an opposition has to be streets ahead in a local election has not worked now two years running.

Going even further back Tory and labour were frequently neck and neck, it's only Thatcher and Blair who bucked that trend.

The truth is being at high water is more of a risk for the Tories than labour.

Those Labour politicians who now seek to destabilise Corbyn are guilty of trying to destroy Labour by leaving the party effectively in 2010, Miliband, 2015 and 2016 and have done nothing to build a convincing alternative.

[jeremyp]

Corbyn is less shit than Miliband who was treated as victor in waiting right up until the last moment when it was all revealed as an illusion.

And Corbyn was treated as a victor even after he lost the 2017 general election.

Miliband represents the kind of Labour you think cuts it

What kind of Labour do I think cuts it? I've been careful only to comment on the qualities of the various leaders and almost leaders, not on the party itself and its policies, so I'm wondering how you know what I think cuts it.

For the record, I voted Lib Dem in 2017 because they are against Brexit. It was the easiest decision I've ever made in a general election.

was easily felled by pointing out that Miliband couldn't eat a bacon sandwich without looking odd.

Which is concerning because what you look like when eating a bacon sandwich is not correlated with the qualities needed to run a major democracy as far as I know. I agree it was easy not to take Miliband seriously which is a problem.

The rule that an opposition has to be streets ahead in a local election has not worked now two years running.

Going even further back Tory and labour were frequently neck and neck, it's only Thatcher and Blair who bucked that trend.

The truth is being at high water is more of a risk for the Tories than labour.

Those Labour politicians who now seek to destabilise Corbyn are guilty of trying to destroy Labour by leaving the party effectively in 2010, Miliband, 2015 and 2016 and have done nothing to build a convincing alternative.

I'm not really sure what you are trying to say. I see a Tory government that is at historic levels of incompetence, some of whose policies are so beyond the pale that even the Daily Mail has drawn a line, a Tory government pursuing a Brexit deal that almost nobody will agree with and yet they manage to be at level pegging in polls with the main opposition. I honestly do not understand what is going on. Labour should be killing them.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

And Corbyn was treated as a victor even after he lost the 2017 general election.
What kind of Labour do I think cuts it? I've been careful only to comment on the qualities of the various leaders and almost leaders, not on the party itself and its policies, so I'm wondering how you know what I think cuts it.

For the record, I voted Lib Dem in 2017 because they are against Brexit. It was the easiest decision I've ever made in a general election.
Which is concerning because what you look like when eating a bacon sandwich is not correlated with the qualities needed to run a major democracy as far as I know. I agree it was easy not to take Miliband seriously which is a problem.

I'm not really sure what you are trying to say. I see a Tory government that is at historic levels of incompetence, some of whose policies are so beyond the pale that even the Daily Mail has drawn a line, a Tory government pursuing a Brexit deal that almost nobody will agree with and yet they manage to be at level pegging in polls with the main opposition. I honestly do not understand what is going on. Labour should be killing them.

I disagree, we are only half way though the political cycle with a recent change on tory face, the precedence being the replacement of Churchill with Eden who was completely shit. The tories had another eight years to run with two more changes of face.

We know we have a stubborn electorate which have been right wing and have not so far as we are in europe still have not had to come face to face with the consequences of their actions and consequently punish the tories.