Well Stephen Pinker.......Explain this.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/19/knife-crime-up-16-per-cent-england-and-wales

[Shaker]

1. Monumental misrepresentation of Pinker's thesis in The Better Angels of Our Nature - check.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

1. Monumental misrepresentation of Pinker's thesis in The Better Angels of Our Nature - check.

Can you put your hands on and quote this ''Monumental misrepresentation''?

[SteveH]

What has Stephen Pinker got to do with an article about knife crime?

[Shaker]

What has Stephen Pinker got to do with an article about knife crime?

Stephen Pinker wrote a well-known book called The Better Angels of Our Nature in which he argued, with a colossal amount of data, that over all people generally live far safer lives with much less violence now than at any time prior in history. Vlad seems to have forgotten about the "over all" part and seems to be suggesting that a local rise in violent crime invalidates Pinker's main thesis. He's straw-manning Pinker, basically.

[wigginhall]

And the article in the OP cites a long-term decline in crime.

[Shaker]

And the article in the OP cites a long-term decline in crime.

Indeed. And then there's this:

The rise in robberies may reflect a real increase in the crime but also an improvement in recording practices, the ONS said.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Vlad seems to have forgotten about the "over all" part and seems to be suggesting that a local rise in violent crime invalidates Pinker's main thesis.

Can you provide the quote for this?

[Shaker]

You'll work it out eventually Vlad.

[jeremyp]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/19/knife-crime-up-16-per-cent-england-and-wales

How does one anomaly over a short time period in one medium sized country that is currently in a relatively stressed state invalidate Pinker's thesis?

[Shaker]

I doubt if we'll find out.

Any more than we'll find out why Vlad seems to think that Prof. Pinker needs to explain a British news item.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

You'll work it out eventually Vlad.

That's a no then.
Since you claim to know the mind of the man perhaps you'd like  to hazard a Pinkerian explanation instead?

[Shaker]

That's a no then.
Since you claim to know the mind of the man perhaps you'd like  to hazard a Pinkerian explanation instead?

No, I frame no hypotheses. Why does Pinker need to explain a British news item?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

How does one anomaly over a short time period in one medium sized country that is currently in a relatively stressed state invalidate Pinker's thesis?

Are you saying then that pinker just ignores anomalies.

So these figures are incorrect?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

No, I frame no hypotheses. Why does Pinker need to explain a British news item?

The small matter of his appearance in the series The genius of Charles Darwin where he appears in person at the point where Dawkins quotes the then figures for violent crime which demonstrated at that point a fall in UK crime.

[jeremyp]

Are you saying then that pinker just ignores anomalies.

So these figures are incorrect?

Pinker is talking about long term trends over decades or centuries. An uptick in crime in one country is of no importance unless it continues for a few decades.

[Shaker]

The small matter of his appearance in the series The genius of Charles Darwin where he appears in person at the point where Dawkins quotes the then figures for violent crime which demonstrated at that point a fall in UK crime.

... from which we learn that crime goes up and down. Big whoop. Do you think he knows, and if not, are you going to tell him or shall I?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

... from which we learn that crime goes up and down. Big whoop. Do you think he knows, and if not, are you going to tell him or shall I?

Pinker is quite happy to trumpet his theses when current stats back them up.


Here he is on the subject of UK crime again in 2014 at a time when violent crime was declining

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlUmaqL7qEo

He now needs to come on and make his case when the figures are going the other way....

....If he doesn't then it's a bit suspect.

[Shaker]

Try reading #15 again. If you need help with some or all of it, don't be afraid to ask.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Try reading #15 again. If you need help with some or all of it, don't be afraid to ask.

Try reviewing Pinker's appearance on Dawkin's the genius of Charles Darwin and his appearance on newsnight as referenced.


Vis my usual complaint with Pinker.

It's his use of the statistics and the obtaining of them that is his trouble.

Since he goes back to middle ages where statistics were not scientifically kept but I think you are aware of the issues there.

He uses them to make a philosophical point and claim above and beyond even the realms of social science.


Any way it would be nice to hear him justify his methodology and claims in a context contradictory to his thrust about the enlightenment.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Pinker is talking about long term trends over decades or centuries. An uptick in crime in one country is of no importance unless it continues for a few decades.

In Dawkins programme at the point where he consults Pinker there is allusion to the UK's drop in crime over a twenty year period.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

... from which we learn that crime goes up and down.

I don't think that's quite Pinker's thesis.

[jeremyp]

In Dawkins programme at the point where he consults Pinker there is allusion to the UK's drop in crime over a twenty year period.

But do you think the statistic of "crime in the year to end of month x" went down for every single one of the 240 x's included in that twenty year period?

By the way, over the last twenty years the trend is still downwards.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

But do you think the statistic of "crime in the year to end of month x" went down for every single one of the 240 x's included in that twenty year period?

By the way, over the last twenty years the trend is still downwards.

I will ask you again are the statistics for a rise in crime a mistake?

[jeremyp]

are the statistics for a rise in crime a mistake?

Of course not, but as I've been telling you and you have been ignoring, one month's statistics are not a trend.

Now, I've answered your question, do me the courtesy of addressing mine, if you can.