Anti-Brexit demonstration, London, 20/10/18.

[Spud]

Why would ports and airports have to be closed to EU traffic?

[Rhiannon]

Why would ports and airports have to be closed to EU traffic?

Stopping altogether is probably going to be short term as the shock of no deal kicks in. After that...because each and every box of oranges, lorry and flight from the EU will now have to be checked in the same way that everything from outside the EU is. Tariffs will need to be paid on goods that don't currently get paid. Customs will no longer have roll on, roll off delivery of foods and other goods, but each and every single lorry will need to go through customs which will take hours. And there's compliance; goods sold in the EU adhere to certain standards, but now everything will need to be checked because we will be outside the standards laws. Customs will effectively grind to a halt. You know that the government are planning on using an entire motorway as a freight lorry park? Remember how strikes in France brought Dover to a standstill? That, only day in, day out, with no goods reaching our supermarkets. We will have enough food to last 6 months. It is our government who are recommending stockpiling and I do not think it a coincidence that my local supermarket has big promos on things that aren't generally popular here such as tinned soups. And there are all kinds of sectors in manufacturing that rely on the supply chain of goods from Europe and that will end because they can't turn around their stuff quickly enough. Rice is currently milled in this country and taken back abroad to be sold. That is ending. And it's a big employer across the county border from me. And that is just one example.  Productivity across all sectors will be hot and companies will move elsewhere.

And that's without a load of technical shit I don't understand. Air traffic control? That must be an EU thing.

[Spud]

Stopping altogether is probably going to be short term as the shock of no deal kicks in.

I can't see why we would have to start checks immediately though. The EU might want to, that's its decision.

[jeremyp]

https://www.flickr.com/photos/154641658@N06/albums/72157702636476035

I love "I am very cross". How very British.

[jeremyp]

And cost the country its much needed dosh in order to police the things!

Firstly, not as much dosh as Brexit has cost and will cost.

Secondly, we had this argument in relation to Royal weddings and football matches already. One of the reasons we pay taxes is so that the police can do this sort of thing.

[jeremyp]

The people already voted. Leave won.

You can probably be excused for not knowing what is going on here because you live in Finland, but it is not exactly plain sailing. Saying that the Brxiteers won is like saying the people on the Titanic won because they wanted to go to New York. Nobody is winning. Probably even Jakswan would admit it is not going as well as he had hoped.

[jeremyp]

The question was quite simple. Leave or stay.

Deceptively so as it turned out. The issue seems to actually be unbelievably complex.

What's there not to understand? No one voted leave because they wanted to stay or that over half of those who voted were illiterate or something.

But leaving the EU could mean so many different things to different people. It would have been a far better idea if the Leavers could have agreed amongst themselves what kind of Brexit we would be going before the vote. Given how close the vote was, the result might have changed if we had known that (for example) we were going for "no deal" or "Norway-" or whatever.

[jeremyp]

The isn't going to run out of medicines. The middle-classes have no need to worry that they'll no longer be able to buy beaujolais and camembert or that the plebs will run out of baked beans. It's all scaremongering.

Again, you can be excused because you don't live here, but really, it is not just scaremongering.

[jeremyp]

They never had a plan because they didn't think the electorate would be stupid enough to vote for it. They underestimated, not the stupidity of too many of their citizens, but their rage.

This.

And they still don't have a plan, at least not one that doesn't involve turning Kent into a lorry park.

[jeremyp]

Why would ports and airports have to be closed to EU traffic?

The legal agreements that allow British goods to flow into the EU and EU goods to flow into Britain, the agreements that allow British pilots and planes to fly in the EU and vice versa, ditto ships and road traffic would all suddenly be void because they are all EU agreements.

Even if that all gets sorted out, even a minute's extra delay to get through customs at a port like Dover or Calais will result in massive queues and chaos.

[Robbie]

Very good pictures SteveH, did you get anyone to take a pic of you?  You don't have to identify yourself  . 

You had a lovely day for the demo too which was a bonus.  Well done for taking part.  Thank goodness some people have the courage of their convictions.

[Spud]

The legal agreements that allow British goods to flow into the EU and EU goods to flow into Britain, the agreements that allow British pilots and planes to fly in the EU and vice versa, ditto ships and road traffic would all suddenly be void because they are all EU agreements.

Even if that all gets sorted out, even a minute's extra delay to get through customs at a port like Dover or Calais will result in massive queues and chaos.

Sounds like Armageddon. So realistically, our only options  are a soft Brexit (stay in customs union, single market), or remain in EU. Hard Brexit seems irresponsible.

[jeremyp]

Sounds like Armageddon. So realistically, our only options  are a soft Brexit (stay in customs union, single market), or remain in EU. Hard Brexit seems irresponsible.

Part of me almost hopes that hard Brexit actually happens because it would expose the likes of Rees-Mogg, Duncan-Smith, Johnson and Farage for what they are. Telling people about the consequences of their policies can be hand waved away. You can't argue with a twenty mile queue of lorries on the M20.

[wigginhall]

I noticed some heavyweight journalists arguing for another vote,  Rawnsley in the Observer and Parris in the Times.   This seems significant as they are not left-wing nutters.   No deal is concentrating minds.   May will find it hard to get any deal through the Commons, so have a pause.

[Spud]

Part of me almost hopes that hard Brexit actually happens because it would expose the likes of Rees-Mogg, Duncan-Smith, Johnson and Farage for what they are. Telling people about the consequences of their policies can be hand waved away. You can't argue with a twenty mile queue of lorries on the M20.

I was under the impression we would join the WTO and things would carry on but be more expensive. If it's a case of a six month wait while we set that all up then perhaps it could be done, but who knows?

[wigginhall]

Why would ports and airports have to be closed to EU traffic?

I am talking about people who say just leave.  If you do that and then drive a lorry to Calais, how could the driver produce documentation?  The electronic database would exclude us.

[Spud]

I am talking about people who say just leave.  If you do that and then drive a lorry to Calais, how could the driver produce documentation?  The electronic database would exclude us.

Surely the EU will allow us to do business in Europe in the long term? It's the setting up of the necessary procedures that will involve a slow-down. I thought that was what the 2 years from Article 50 was for.

[Rhiannon]

I noticed some heavyweight journalists arguing for another vote,  Rawnsley in the Observer and Parris in the Times.   This seems significant as they are not left-wing nutters.   No deal is concentrating minds.   May will find it hard to get any deal through the Commons, so have a pause.

Left wing nutters are as pro Brexit as the right wing ones. If they weren't we might not be in this mess.

[wigginhall]

Left wing nutters are as pro Brexit as the right wing ones. If they weren't we might not be in this mess.

True, but my point is that if such journos are shifting to support for another vote, something is afoot.

[Rhiannon]

True, but my point is that if such journos are shifting to support for another vote, something is afoot.

One would hope. But time is running out.

[wigginhall]

Surely the EU will allow us to do business in Europe in the long term? It's the setting up of the necessary procedures that will involve a slow-down. I thought that was what the 2 years from Article 50 was for.

Hang on, Spud, I am talking about people who say just leave.  There is no transition after that.  You are out, with no deal, no electronic database of lorries and drivers and factories.   In other words, economic suicide.

[Rhiannon]

Surely the EU will allow us to do business in Europe in the long term? It's the setting up of the necessary procedures that will involve a slow-down. I thought that was what the 2 years from Article 50 was for.

First of all, what happens in the short term? (jobs lost, businesses closed, food shortages, possibly civil unrest)

Secondly, what will the terms of business be? Clue: they won't be cost-free to us as they are at the moment.

[jeremyp]

I was under the impression we would join the WTO and things would carry on but be more expensive. If it's a case of a six month wait while we set that all up then perhaps it could be done, but who knows?

There's two parts to it. There's the agreements and there's the infrastructure. For things like pilots being allowed to fly aeroplanes from Britain to France, it would probably be pretty quick. However, for things like foodstuffs, it's a bit more complicated because the EU would need assurances that deregulated Britain is not shipping them chlorinated chickens from Kentucky (for example). And that cuts both ways. We don't want Romanian nags being shipped to us in lasagnes. Even so, such a deal could probably be cut within months.

The hard bit would be the infrastructure. Building up the facilities at ports and airports and recruiting new staff could take years. And don't forget there are no customs points along our border with the Republic of Ireland. These would have to be built from scratch. We haven't even started on any of this yet.

 

[Rhiannon]

And once we've made it work there's the additional costs involved. Tariffs on food will hit consumers. The increased costs of infrastructure has to be born by tax payers and means less for the NHS, education and social care. In the meantime jobs will have already been lost - businesses are saying that their 'no deal' contingency plans begin in January and that includes moving production to Europe. There is no win in this.

[SteveH]

Very good pictures SteveH, did you get anyone to take a pic of you?  You don't have to identify yourself  . 

You had a lovely day for the demo too which was a bonus.  Well done for taking part.  Thank goodness some people have the courage of their convictions.

I'm the old fart in the selfie, in the first photo.