Author Topic: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?  (Read 12500 times)

Nearly Sane

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #100 on: December 11, 2018, 02:11:10 PM »
What methodology are you talking about? If somebody claims that the universe was created last Thursday by some unknown technological means and somebody else claims that it was created last Thursday by supernatural means, why is one an improbable guess and the other somehow incoherent even though it's logically self-consistent (which is in itself a contradiction)?
Well I'm working with the overall methodology that gives us science as precise, and history as less precise but still based on a methodological assumption of naturalism. In the first case, it may be hard, or indeed impossible(though hard to establish as it's only ever going to be currently that we can state that) to investigate the claim. In the second it means all claims made under the current methodology are meaningless since we base the idea of cause and effect on that MN (methodologically naturalistic) view.

One is a guess that can be evaluated as it works within the same MN, the other can be dismissed in the lack of any methodology. One, in theory, could have evidence, the second throws out the idea of what evidence is.

Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #101 on: December 11, 2018, 06:45:38 PM »
You are confused. The issue with claims that are claimed to be objectively true need a clear methodology. Morality is imo subjective, and isn't about external truth, same for love and marmite. It's a category error to compare them.


Oh just to add, I don't 'reject the supernatural'. I just don't see any clarity about what is meant by it, or any indication from those who claim there is such a thing or how it would be demonstrated. In that instance, it's not reached a standard for rejection.
No I believe the categories were those things which are logically incoherent and that which has methodology, your opinion is that morality is subjective. That is contrary to moral realism.
Subjective morality carries several incoherences and yet few would be without morality.

The first incoherence is that although it is thought subjective it is presented as a "true for you too" in a way that your tastes are not. And to answer Enki that is where humbug and hypocrisy are found.....and not only that...there is inconsistency and incoherence between belief and practice.

I'm afraid it was you who talked about tossing the supernatural into the pit of logical incoherence.
I take that as a "could do without out this thing ofno value". If that is so whither morality?


« Last Edit: December 11, 2018, 06:56:16 PM by Phyllis Tyne »

Nearly Sane

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #102 on: December 11, 2018, 06:49:10 PM »
No I believe the categories were those things which are logically incoherent and that which has methodology, your opinion is that morality is subjective. That is contrary to moral realism.
Subjective morality carries several incoherences and yet few would be without morality.

The first incoherence is that although it is thought subjective it is presented as a "true for you too" in a way that your tastes are not. And to answer Enki that is where humbug and hypocrisy are found.....and not only that...there is inconsistency and incoherence between belief and practice.
Your first sentence is an incoherent car crash. So I would ask if you could look at it and try and make it a bit clearer.

Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #103 on: December 11, 2018, 07:02:28 PM »
Your first sentence is an incoherent car crash. So I would ask if you could look at it and try and make it a bit clearer.
What is the methodology for establishing your morality which you present as true for others?

What is logically coherent about a subjective true for you morality?

jeremyp

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #104 on: December 11, 2018, 07:05:58 PM »
Probability is a methodoligical naturalistic concept.
It's a mathematical concept.
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Enki

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #105 on: December 11, 2018, 07:19:10 PM »
No I believe the categories were those things which are logically incoherent and that which has methodology, your opinion is that morality is subjective. That is contrary to moral realism.
Subjective morality carries several incoherences and yet few would be without morality.

The first incoherence is that although it is thought subjective it is presented as a "true for you too" in a way that your tastes are not. And to answer Enki that is where humbug and hypocrisy are found.....and not only that...there is inconsistency and incoherence between belief and practice.

I'm afraid it was you who talked about tossing the supernatural into the pit of logical incoherence.
I take that as a "could do without out this thing ofno value". If that is so whither morality?

1) I see morality as having an evolutionary basis.

2) I see no reason to think that the idea of evolution needs an outside agency such as a god for the process of evolution to work. Hence, I see no reason to think that morality needs any outside agency.

3) I accept that there is a 'potential' for morality, if it aids survival. However I see this as no different to any other 'potentials' such as the eye, movement, ability to breed, speed, strength, selfishness and a myriad of other characteristics of living things. I do not see these 'potentials' as having any outside existence in their own right, and, therefore do not regard them as objective in the sense of having an existence separate from the creatures which exhibit these characteristics.
 
4) I have a morality which I try to adhere to. For me, this is probably driven by such traits as empathy  and natural feelings of co-operation and responsibility towards others. Culture, environment, experience, upbringing, and a rational approach, for me, superimpose upon those feelings, so that I attempt to give the most constructive outcome which would satisfy my original motivations. I do not see this as some 'distortion' of morality in any way. My morality seems entirely consistent with certain evolutionary motivations rather than reflecting some sort of morality which has an objective existence. Thus my sense of moral wrongness/rightness depends upon my own unique characteristics wedded to group characteristics via evolution.

5) I generally think and feel that I am correct in my moral thoughts and decisions, because that is the way in which I have evolved to think and feel. That is not to say that I can't make immoral decisions, but it would be odd, indeed, if I went around thinking that my moral thoughts and decisions were inherently wrong.  However If it was demonstrated to me that some particular moral thought or action of mine was wrong, then I would try to analyse why it might be wrong, and if then I was convinced of this wrongness, I would try to adjust accordingly.

6) Moral thoughts and decisions can involve deep seated and natural emotions, often in relation to the extreme nature of a situation. Hence, in general terms, I would consider a brutal murder or a savage rape to be much more extreme than a small theft, for instance. Thus I would have a greater sense of condemnation for murder than theft. I find this to be entirely consistent with the evolutionary characteristics I referred to in point 4.

7) Because I am a member of an extremely social species, I see the need for group decisions as well as for valuing my own. Therefore, and especially, when I see social cohesion being threatened or undermined, I also understand the impulse for curtailing antisocial behaviour in myself and others. Conflict often arises from this attempt at balancing social/individual behaviour. I see this as entirely consistent with point 1 and point 4.

8 ) Once I die, my own motivations and feelings are no longer in existence. I might well hope that others may have the same sense of morality that I had, but it would be of no relevance to me as I no longer exist. In other words my sense of morality has died with me.

9) If all human beings died(and leaving aside the evidence for proto-morality in certain other animals) then, as I see it, there would be no such thing as morality actually existing, although the 'potential' for morality would not cease, given that evolution continues and that morality aids survival.

I see no reasons to think that my  opinions here are not internally consistent and I fail to see where humbug and hypocrisy appear. I am quite willing to modify my views if this 'humbug and hypocrisy' is pointed out to me such that I agree with the arguments that demonstrate these qualities.
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Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #106 on: December 11, 2018, 07:24:25 PM »
1) I see morality as having an evolutionary basis.

2) I see no reason to think that the idea of evolution needs an outside agency such as a god for the process of evolution to work. Hence, I see no reason to think that morality needs any outside agency.

3) I accept that there is a 'potential' for morality, if it aids survival. However I see this as no different to any other 'potentials' such as the eye, movement, ability to breed, speed, strength, selfishness and a myriad of other characteristics of living things. I do not see these 'potentials' as having any outside existence in their own right, and, therefore do not regard them as objective in the sense of having an existence separate from the creatures which exhibit these characteristics.
 
4) I have a morality which I try to adhere to. For me, this is probably driven by such traits as empathy  and natural feelings of co-operation and responsibility towards others. Culture, environment, experience, upbringing, and a rational approach, for me, superimpose upon those feelings, so that I attempt to give the most constructive outcome which would satisfy my original motivations. I do not see this as some 'distortion' of morality in any way. My morality seems entirely consistent with certain evolutionary motivations rather than reflecting some sort of morality which has an objective existence. Thus my sense of moral wrongness/rightness depends upon my own unique characteristics wedded to group characteristics via evolution.

5) I generally think and feel that I am correct in my moral thoughts and decisions, because that is the way in which I have evolved to think and feel. That is not to say that I can't make immoral decisions, but it would be odd, indeed, if I went around thinking that my moral thoughts and decisions were inherently wrong.  However If it was demonstrated to me that some particular moral thought or action of mine was wrong, then I would try to analyse why it might be wrong, and if then I was convinced of this wrongness, I would try to adjust accordingly.

6) Moral thoughts and decisions can involve deep seated and natural emotions, often in relation to the extreme nature of a situation. Hence, in general terms, I would consider a brutal murder or a savage rape to be much more extreme than a small theft, for instance. Thus I would have a greater sense of condemnation for murder than theft. I find this to be entirely consistent with the evolutionary characteristics I referred to in point 4.

7) Because I am a member of an extremely social species, I see the need for group decisions as well as for valuing my own. Therefore, and especially, when I see social cohesion being threatened or undermined, I also understand the impulse for curtailing antisocial behaviour in myself and others. Conflict often arises from this attempt at balancing social/individual behaviour. I see this as entirely consistent with point 1 and point 4.

8 ) Once I die, my own motivations and feelings are no longer in existence. I might well hope that others may have the same sense of morality that I had, but it would be of no relevance to me as I no longer exist. In other words my sense of morality has died with me.

9) If all human beings died(and leaving aside the evidence for proto-morality in certain other animals) then, as I see it, there would be no such thing as morality actually existing, although the 'potential' for morality would not cease, given that evolution continues and that morality aids survival.

I see no reasons to think that my  opinions here are not internally consistent and I fail to see where humbug and hypocrisy appear. I am quite willing to modify my views if this 'humbug and hypocrisy' is pointed out to me such that I agree with the arguments that demonstrate these qualities.
Science makes zero moral arbitration.It merely observes behaviour.

Not sure about the link between survival and morality though.

bluehillside Retd.

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #107 on: December 11, 2018, 07:39:03 PM »
NS,

Quote
...which you present as true for others?

You are of course more than big enough and ugly enough (as my Mum would say) to look after yourself, but you know I'm sure that immolating this straw man would only unleash another hundred to follow.

Your call though.
 
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God

Enki

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #108 on: December 11, 2018, 08:06:41 PM »
Science makes zero moral arbitration.It merely observes behaviour.

Science not only observes behaviour, it also tries to understand behaviour. At no point have I said that science decides what moral behaviour should be.

Quote
Not sure about the link between survival and morality though.

That's up to you.(shrugs shoulders). I am not trying to force my views upon you, but I see no reason at all to suggest inconsistency in what I have said, and even less reason to smear such thoughts as leading to 'humbug and hypocrisy'.
Sometimes I wish my first word was 'quote,' so that on my death bed, my last words could be 'end quote.'
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Nearly Sane

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #109 on: December 11, 2018, 08:21:49 PM »
It's a mathematical concept.
and in terms of evaluating evidence for anything outside pure maths, naturalistic. And used to evaluate evidence, naturalistically.

Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #110 on: December 11, 2018, 08:33:53 PM »
history as less precise but still based on a methodological assumption of naturalism.
Heath Robinson sentence.

Nearly Sane

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #111 on: December 11, 2018, 08:36:23 PM »
Heath Robinson sentence.
That isn't an actual quote of a sentence I wrote.

Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #112 on: December 11, 2018, 08:46:31 PM »
That isn't an actual quote of a sentence I wrote.
It's a cut and paste from one of your posts and you have expressed this before.
Could you please outline again why you think history is methodologically naturalistic.

Since naturalism is but one philosophical position can it be true that history is exclusively naturalistic.

Could you also expand on your suggested similarity between science and history. Thank you.

Nearly Sane

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #113 on: December 11, 2018, 08:52:34 PM »
It's a cut and paste from one of your posts and you have expressed this before.
Could you please outline again why you think history is methodologically naturalistic.

Since naturalism is but one philosophical position can it be true that history is exclusively naturalistic.

Could you also expand on your suggested similarity between science and history. Thank you.
It's a quote from a post but it isn't a sentence from it. So calling it a sentence is wrong. Given that you made an incorrect statement of it being a sentence, the rest of your post is irrelevant.

Stranger

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #114 on: December 11, 2018, 08:55:57 PM »
and in terms of evaluating evidence for anything outside pure maths, naturalistic. And used to evaluate evidence, naturalistically.

Once again, probability is only the ratio of the number of ways in which something can be the case to the number of ways it can be in total. There need be nothing natural about the situation, it could be applied to an entirely unrealistic, fictional world.

If you have no way to investigate or get evidence, then a claim simply stands as one story amongst all possible stories about the situation. If we take last Thursdayism, there is no evidence and no way to get evidence even if we assume a natural but unknown technological mechanism for the creation event.

We only know what we know, and we don't know how much we don't know. If something falls far enough outside of what we know, for all practical purposes, including assessing probability, it might as well be "supernatural". This is one reason I think the term is all but meaningless; if a god exists, for example, how can it not be the most natural thing that exists?
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Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #115 on: December 11, 2018, 09:00:02 PM »
It's a quote from a post but it isn't a sentence from it. So calling it a sentence is wrong. Given that you made an incorrect statement of it being a sentence, the rest of your post is irrelevant.

You have asserted that history is methodologically naturalistic. Make good your claim.

Nearly Sane

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #116 on: December 11, 2018, 09:06:49 PM »
You have asserted that history is methodologically naturalistic. Make good your claim.
I've covered this at least four times before with your. Science and history in these terms are about study of both when you talk about it METHODOLOGICALLY. And told you the same amount of times that I am not a philosophical naturalist. Whenever you take that into account get back to me.

Nearly Sane

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #117 on: December 11, 2018, 09:11:26 PM »
Once again, probability is only the ratio of the number of ways in which something can be the case to the number of ways it can be in total. There need be nothing natural about the situation, it could be applied to an entirely unrealistic, fictional world.

If you have no way to investigate or get evidence, then a claim simply stands as one story amongst all possible stories about the situation. If we take last Thursdayism, there is no evidence and no way to get evidence even if we assume a natural but unknown technological mechanism for the creation event.

We only know what we know, and we don't know how much we don't know. If something falls far enough outside of what we know, for all practical purposes, including assessing probability, it might as well be "supernatural". This is one reason I think the term is all but meaningless; if a god exists, for example, how can it not be the most natural thing that exists?
You are missing the issue that what supernatural claims mean that the concept of evidence is not agreed then any calculation is empty.

Gordon

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #118 on: December 11, 2018, 09:27:04 PM »
Although the calculation of probability is maths, and especially in the context of statistical tests (p=<0.05 etc, as I often did in a previous life), but when applied to phenomena such as claims then to do the maths you need some data (how many, how often etc etc), and to get data you need a method that addresses what constitutes data, how these data are recognised, how data is to be collected, how data is to be measured or categorised, how data is to be analysed etc etc.

If a supernatural claim involves some type of phenomena then to even consider its probability you would need a method that is suited to the collection of relevant supernatural data: and without a suitable method you have no data, no scope for analysis, and therefore no evidence that includes calculations of probability.

Stranger

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #119 on: December 11, 2018, 09:36:22 PM »
You are missing the issue that what supernatural claims mean that the concept of evidence is not agreed then any calculation is empty.

As I said: if you have no way to investigate or get evidence, then a claim simply stands as one story amongst all possible stories about the situation.

Some supernatural claims (creationism, for example) attempt (however laughably) to use objective (intersubjective) evidence. On the other hand, a technological last Thursdayism couldn't provide any. The label is simply irrelevant.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #120 on: December 11, 2018, 09:41:04 PM »
As I said: if you have no way to investigate or get evidence, then a claim simply stands as one story amongst all possible stories about the situation.

Some supernatural claims (creationism, for example) attempt (however laughably) to use objective (intersubjective) evidence. On the other hand, a technological last Thursdayism couldn't provide any. The label is simply irrelevant.
But if the label denies the methodology then it's irrelevant in the absence of a replacement methodology.

And all claims pitched outside the 'naturalistic' world, absent a method are just not even wrong.

Stranger

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #121 on: December 11, 2018, 09:44:26 PM »
Although the calculation of probability is maths, and especially in the context of statistical tests (p=<0.05 etc, as I often did in a previous life), but when applied to phenomena such as claims then to do the maths you need some data...

When you label a wild guess as unlikely, nobody is suggesting that we do an exact calculation, it's simply based on the idea that you could make a vast number of baseless guesses, all of which (in the absence of any supporting evidence or reasoning) are equally (un)likely.

As blue said in #75; "When someone with a $5,000 suit and an ambitious haircut says, “Give me all your money and I will give you the keys to heaven” we have no choice but to work out whether or not to believe him. Is he more probably right or more probably wrong?"
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Nearly Sane

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #122 on: December 11, 2018, 09:48:46 PM »
When you label a wild guess as unlikely, nobody is suggesting that we do an exact calculation, it's simply based on the idea that you could make a vast number of baseless guesses, all of which (in the absence of any supporting evidence or reasoning) are equally (un)likely.

As blue said in #75; "When someone with a $5,000 suit and an ambitious haircut says, “Give me all your money and I will give you the keys to heaven” we have no choice but to work out whether or not to believe him. Is he more probably right or more probably wrong?"
When you use the term 'wild guess', you are already validating it as possible but absent a methodology that does that, that would be specious.

Stranger

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #123 on: December 11, 2018, 09:58:02 PM »
But if the label denies the methodology then it's irrelevant in the absence of a replacement methodology.

And all claims pitched outside the 'naturalistic' world, absent a method are just not even wrong.

You keep repeating these claims but never actually back them up. What methodology?

If something is logically self-consistent and doesn't directly contradict something that is known (that is an actual fact, not a theory that might have exceptions, no matter how well tested), what practical difference does labelling it "supernatural" make to whether you regard it as likely or not?

When you use the term 'wild guess', you are already validating it as possible but absent a methodology that does that, that would be specious.

I wrote the above before I read this, but it's possible if it is logically self-consistent and doesn't directly contradict a known fact. What additional methodology do you think is needed?
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Gordon

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Re: How unlikely are God and/or other "supernatural" things?
« Reply #124 on: December 11, 2018, 09:59:30 PM »
When you label a wild guess as unlikely, nobody is suggesting that we do an exact calculation, it's simply based on the idea that you could make a vast number of baseless guesses, all of which (in the absence of any supporting evidence or reasoning) are equally (un)likely.

As blue said in #75; "When someone with a $5,000 suit and an ambitious haircut says, “Give me all your money and I will give you the keys to heaven” we have no choice but to work out whether or not to believe him. Is he more probably right or more probably wrong?"

If you want to calculate the probability of anything then you need a method (which includes all aspects of data and analysis) that is probability-apt.

You might rightly conclude that the chap in the shiny suit and confident manner is not to be trusted, but that is a subjective judgement based on experience and intuition and is not a calculation of the probability in the statistical sense: he could be scrupulously honest, but with questionable taste in suits and haircuts: the question is how you would test the probability that he was wrong?

If there is no method suited to the nature of the claim being made then probability in the statistical sense isn't calculable.