Thursday's Euro-election.

[Roses]

Counting doesn't take place until Sunday evening, so I don't suppose we will know anything official on turnout until then.

We might, or might not.

[Udayana]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/23/eu-citizens-denied-vote-european-election-polling-booths-admin-errors

A nationwide picture is emerging of EU citizens in the UK being denied their democratic right to vote in the European parliament elections because of administrative errors by local councils.

Reports are coming in from across the country of EU nationals turning up at polling booths and finding their names crossed out and being told by officials they are not eligible to vote.

Sounds like a shambles - to be added to the UK govt. mistakes and delays responsible for some UK citizens abroad being unable to vote.

[SteveH]

We might, or might not.

Well, we won't. Exit polls will give an indication, but they're not official.

[ProfessorDavey]

Well, we won't. Exit polls will give an indication, but they're not official.

Exit polls are not allowed to be released in one country prior to voting closing across all 28 EU countries.

[SteveH]

Exit polls are not allowed to be released in one country prior to voting closing across all 28 EU countries.

Well, in that case, we certainly won't.

[Nearly Sane]

Exit polls are not allowed to be released in one country prior to voting closing across all 28 EU countries.

just seen an exit poll from the Netherlands

Not sure what the definition is of what cannot be done


https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1131637132412542976

[ProfessorDavey]

just seen an exit poll from the Netherlands

Not sure what the definition is of what cannot be done


https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1131637132412542976

Not sure whether the law in the Netherlands is different, or whether someone is simply ignoring the law (both are suggested in the comments), but certainly in the UK it is illegal to publish any exit poll before 10pm on Sunday.

[ProfessorDavey]

Counting doesn't take place until Sunday evening, so I don't suppose we will know anything official on turnout until then.

Some local authorities have verified their votes and therefore have published their individual turnouts.

So, for example, turnout in my area - St Albans - is 47%. Not sure how this compares with the 2014 but is a little up on the local elections a few weeks ago (they were about 40% overall).

However reading Politicalbetting.com there is a trend emerging - specifically that turnout positively correlates with remain % vote in the 2016 referendum - in other words the more remain areas have greater turnout than leave areas.

What this really means for the overall result remains, of course, unclear yet.

[Nearly Sane]

And one that was apparently  raised prior to the day and the govt ignored.

https://mobile.twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1131821146180079616

[ProfessorDavey]

With a decent number of authorities reporting turnout it looks as if turnout is 2-3% up on 2014 (which was 35.6%) - so we are looking at turnout of high 30s.

The trend vs remain/leave in interesting. Remain areas having higher turnout - but that is perhaps not surprising as they tend to be more middle class areas which typically have higher turnouts. More interesting is that there is a correlation between change in turnout compared to 2014 and remain vs leave - with remain areas showing the greatest increase in turnout with leave areas flat or even declining vs 2014.

Neither London nor Scotland is reporting turnout yet - I think that happens later today. Given that both were strong remain areas and with the current trends we might see more marked turnout increases in both of those places, and perhaps that might push overall turnout over 40%.

[SusanDoris]

I chose not to vote. I wrote to MP and told him so. He replied he quite understood! I'd have had to have a taxi there, wait and bring me home too.

?So there! Yah, boo to Brexiteers and the whole sorry mess.

[Roses]

As reported in the Evening Leader.

TURNOUTS for the European Parliament elections have been announced ahead of formal counting of our votes on Sunday and they are about four per cent up on figures for the last European Parliament elections in 2014:
Turnouts figures announced on Friday are:
Flintshire – 35.7 per cent (2014 turnout – 31 per cent)
Wrexham – 34 per cent (2014 – 29.5 per cent)
Cheshire West and Chester – 34.9 per cent (2014 – 31.27 per cent).
The votes for 73 UK Members of the European Parliament – four members for the all-Wales region and eight members for the North West region – will be counted according to the D’Hondt system of proportional representation.

[ProfessorDavey]

Hearing that overall turnout is 38% - so a touch up on the 35.6% last time, but no seismic shift.

Also the correlation whereby increase in turnout is greatest in 2016 remain areas and least (or even turnout decline) in 2016 leave areas. What this all means in terms of results remains unclear though.

[Udayana]

Finding it anoying that the media are treating the vote as FPTP when it is proportional.

Farage has not "won" the election as it is a proportional vote for EP.  If he wants to be part of the brexit negotiations he can do so by working through the EP committee set up for that.

[ProfessorDavey]

Finding it anoying that the media are treating the vote as FPTP when it is proportional.

Farage has not "won" the election as it is a proportional vote for EP.  If he wants to be part of the brexit negotiations he can do so by working through the EP committee set up for that.

Indeed - and the remain parties (Lib Dem/Green/CHUK/SNP/Plaid) clearly beat the hard brexit parties (Brexit/UKIP etc) and it was remain parties that made the big gains, not Brexit/UKIP.

Final turnout seems to be 36.7% so only a touch up from 2014. Total Brexit party vote was 5.2M or a touch over 11% of the electorate. Comfortably beaten by the over 6M who signed the revoke petition - and even if you add the UKIP vote too it doesn't reach 6M.

The story - if there is one - is that people are hacked off with both Tory and Labour in their approach to brexit - but that more people seem to want an alternative which involves remaining in the UK than want to 'get on with brexit'.

Labour to pivot to unequivocally supporting second referendum in days?

[Aruntraveller]

Indeed - and the remain parties (Lib Dem/Green/CHUK/SNP/Plaid) clearly beat the hard brexit parties (Brexit/UKIP etc) and it was remain parties that made the big gains, not Brexit/UKIP.

Final turnout seems to be 36.7% so only a touch up from 2014. Total Brexit party vote was 5.2M or a touch over 11% of the electorate. Comfortably beaten by the over 6M who signed the revoke petition - and even if you add the UKIP vote too it doesn't reach 6M.

The story - if there is one - is that people are hacked off with both Tory and Labour in their approach to brexit - but that more people seem to want an alternative which involves remaining in the UK than want to 'get on with brexit'.

Labour to pivot to unequivocally supporting second referendum in days?

Not sure I would read as much into it as that. Compared to the referendum or GE the turnout was low. The only conclusion I can draw is that the UK is sill basically split down he middle on the issue. As to Labour, I hope you are right and that they do endorse a second referendum, but I fear you underestimate Corby n's ability to procrastinate.

[Roses]

I think Labour should also be looking for a new leader to replace Corbyn, as he has done a very poor job, imo. 

[ProfessorDavey]

Not sure I would read as much into it as that.

Hence:

'The story - if there is one ...'[/quote]

Compared to the referendum or GE the turnout was low. The only conclsion I can draw is that the UK is sill basially split down he middle on the issue.

True - but you need to understand momentum or direction of travel of opinion and that is pretty clearly in the direction of second referendum/remain. That's what this election and the local elections showed with the biggest overall gains being for unequivocally remain parties. That's also what polling is showing too.

As to Labour, I hope you are right and that thy do endorse a econd referendum, but I fear you underestimate Corby n's ability to procrastinate.

I don't underestimate Corbyn's ability to procrastinate (which is actually an opposition to the EU), but the position is becoming untenable - pretty well all his membership and voters want Labour to be clearly pro-second referendum - he is swimming against an increasingly strong tide.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think Labour should also be looking for a new leader to replace Corbyn, as he has done a very poor job, imo.

I agree - although given the current make up of the electorate they's still go for a hard left candidate, albeit one that is clearly pro-remain.

[Gordon]

What a mess the Tories have opened the door to: an idea with no substance or preparation which they were too incompetent to deliver and where the main opposition in Westminster is just as incompetent in not opposing as it became increasingly obvious Brexit was a disaster in any form. The result being introduced political division that was probably avoidable to some extent, and where a large chuck of the electorate in England and Wales seem to have become infected with the irrationality of Brexit.

What hasn't been commented on just as much today is that the outcome here in Scotland is so very different in that the balance of opinion translated into these EU seats is anti-Brexit,   

[jeremyp]

Total Brexit party vote was 5.2M or a touch over 11% of the electorate. Comfortably beaten by the over 6M who signed the revoke petition - and even if you add the UKIP vote too it doesn't reach 6M.

Excellent. That's all I need to counter the vote for Brexit bullshit that's going to come my way in the next few days.

[jeremyp]

I think Labour should also be looking for a new leader to replace Corbyn, as he has done a very poor job, imo.

I agree. In fact, it occurred to me that, if Labour had a pro-Remain leader, this whole fiasco would be a thing of the past.

[Roses]

I agree. In fact, it occurred to me that, if Labour had a pro-Remain leader, this whole fiasco would be a thing of the past.

Quite possibly.

[ProfessorDavey]

I agree. In fact, it occurred to me that, if Labour had a pro-Remain leader, this whole fiasco would be a thing of the past.

Indeed - had the Labour leadership (i.e. Corbyn) campaigned passionately for remain, that tiny majority for leave in 2016 is unlikely to have happened.

[Harrowby Hall]

I was listening to the Today programme a little while ago. There was an interview with one of the dozen or so Conservative leadership hopefuls.

What disturbed me was the attitude of the interviewee (I didn't catch his name) was that leaving the EU is a certainty and to fail to do so would be a "betrayal of the will of the people" and must precede any election.