UK election 2019

[Nearly Sane]

Then again when you can still be a possible cabinet minister and say this...


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2416737/amp/Michael-Gove-food-banks-Poor-got-blame.html?__twitter_impression=true

[Roses]

We have just had a visit from our local Labour MP. I  sent him an e-mail the other day saying we would support him as he is a good MP. I reminded him of the time 11 years when he visited us at our previous property as I had a neighbourhood issue I wished to discuss with him. I was looking afterour baby granddaughter, he walked the floor with her whilst I made him a cuppa. Anyway I got an e-mail back saying he would be in our area this afternoon and I would probably see him, which we did. I told him I wished he was the leader of the Labour Party, but didn't expect a comment. However, he surprised me by saying he didn't think Corbyn would be leader much longer, WOW!

[Nearly Sane]

Arghh!

Conservative 45% (+8) Labour 27% (-) Lib Dem 16% (-1) Green 3% (-) Brexit Party 2% (-7) Kantar Nov 14-18 #ge2019

[Roses]

Arghh!

Conservative 45% (+8) Labour 27% (-) Lib Dem 16% (-1) Green 3% (-) Brexit Party 2% (-7) Kantar Nov 14-18 #ge2019

Corbyn will almost certainly be booted out if the Tories win the election, HEAVEN HELP US!

[Nearly Sane]

Corbyn will almost certainly be booted out if the Tories win the election, HEAVEN HELP US!

I suspect dependent on the result he's more likely to resign.


Anyway  the Tories, mmm

https://voxpoliticalonline.com/2019/11/18/food-bank-use-has-soared-by-3800-and-child-poverty-is-up-38-under-conservative-rule/

[Roses]

I hear the TV interview last night went really well for both candidates, NOT.

[Nearly Sane]

Imteresting little speculation

https://unherd.com/2019/11/what-if-everyone-loses-this-election/

[Gordon]

I suspect this election will solve nothing in any definitive sense and, moreover, it seems impossible to predict - but there are possibilities that could open up new issues or accentuate current one.

For instance, and leaving aside NI given the unique political climate there, it could be the case that the Tories win a majority and bash on with the Brexit madness but there are no Tory MP's outwith England. Perhaps the Tories win a narrow majority but their key Brexit players, including Johnson, lose their seats. Then there are the permutations involving a hung parliament.

Get your popcorn in!

[Nearly Sane]

I suspect this election will solve nothing in any definitive sense and, moreover, it seems impossible to predict - but there are possibilities that could open up new issues or accentuate current one.

For instance, and leaving aside NI given the unique political climate there, it could be the case that the Tories win a majority and bash on with the Brexit madness but there are no Tory MP's outwith England. Perhaps the Tories win a narrow majority but their key Brexit players, including Johnson, lose their seats. Then there are the permutations involving a hung parliament.

Get your popcorn in!

Obviously things may change but where I was thinking at the start that it would be a small Tory majority it begins to feel more and more as if it will be a substantial majority. I also think that with that a hard brexit becomes a real possibility.

[Roses]

We have just had a Brexit party leaflet through the door sporting a photo of Farage and Widdicombe. We are trying to work out how to dispose of it matching the amount of disgust we experiencing. Flushing it down the loo is a consideration, but one is mindful that it might pollute the sewer. Any suggestions?

[Christine]

I went to bed quite happy last night, after checking Twitter and seeing that in an ITV poll of 30,000 viewers 75% gave Corbyn the "win".  I awoke this morning to the BBC and YouGov (co-founded by Nadhim Zahawi and another pal of Jeffery Archer) reporting a draw and The Metro claiming Johnson won "by a whisker". 

Dominic Raab says nobody "gives a toss" about the Tories changing their campaign Twitter handle to FactCheckUK.

The only people who have any reason to vote Conservative are those with a vested interest in making rich people richer.  There must be a reason why the massed ranks of the British Establishment are manipulating news, lying, smearing and laughing in our faces about it. In my opinion it's because Corbyn can't be relied on to lie in the interests of the rich and powerful.

I watched about two-thirds of the interview with Prince Andrew, I had to turn it off as my skin was crawling.  And people wonder how Jimmy Saville got away with it for so long.  I think that comment is relevant to the coming election, by the way, not a derail.

[Nearly Sane]

I went to bed quite happy last night, after checking Twitter and seeing that in an ITV poll of 30,000 viewers 75% gave Corbyn the "win".  I awoke this morning to the BBC and YouGov (co-founded by Nadhim Zahawi and another pal of Jeffery Archer) reporting a draw and The Metro claiming Johnson won "by a whisker". 

Dominic Raab says nobody "gives a toss" about the Tories changing their campaign Twitter handle to FactCheckUK.

The only people who have any reason to vote Conservative are those with a vested interest in making rich people richer.  There must be a reason why the massed ranks of the British Establishment are manipulating news, lying, smearing and laughing in our faces about it. In my opinion it's because Corbyn can't be relied on to lie in the interests of the rich and powerful.

I watched about two-thirds of the interview with Prince Andrew, I had to turn it off as my skin was crawling.  And people wonder how Jimmy Saville got away with it for so long.  I think that comment is relevant to the coming election, by the way, not a derail.

To be precise about Raab what he said was nobody gives a toss about Twitter cut and thrust, and while it's an exaggeration, I think in one sense he's right. The vast majority of people see Twitter as a distraction and don't really care what goes on on it. They won't see this as much more than political parties doing what political parties do. I suspect they will be happy that it's getting the attention.

[ProfessorDavey]

I awoke this morning to the BBC and YouGov (co-founded by Nadhim Zahawi and another pal of Jeffery Archer) reporting a draw ...

While factually accurate on the original founders of yougov it doesn't tell the whole story. For most of its existence the key players in yougov were Stephan Shakespeare (CEO and indeed a Tory) and Peter Kelner (Chair). Peter isn't involved anymore, but was President until a couple of years ago. Peter is a load-standing Labour supporter (not sure whether he remains so under Corbyn) and indeed his wife is an ex Labour minister.

Peter was always the media face of yougov and they were regularly portrayed as pro Labour as a result.

But actually all this is non-sense. If you run a polling organisation the value in that business is your ability to poll accurately. The moment anyone suspects you add a deliberate bias to your polls your value as a business is gone. So regardless of the political affiliations of those running polling organisations they will ensure that the polling organisation in question is free of political bias in their polling.

[Nearly Sane]

This election just gets weirder

https://metro.co.uk/2019/11/20/ralf-little-suspended-twitter-pretending-tory-party-press-office-11187105/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Outrider]

To be precise about Raab what he said was nobody gives a toss about Twitter cut and thrust, and while it's an exaggeration, I think in one sense he's right. The vast majority of people see Twitter as a distraction and don't really care what goes on on it. They won't see this as much more than political parties doing what political parties do. I suspect they will be happy that it's getting the attention.

That 'vast majority' tends to shrink as you get younger, where the 'vast majority' don't follow the conventional print or broadcast media.

O.

[Nearly Sane]

That 'vast majority' tends to shrink as you get younger, where the 'vast majority' don't follow the conventional print or broadcast media.

O.

But then older people are more likely to vote. Twitter is its own  echo chamber and actions on it aren't taken as seriously by those who don't use it, who use it but in ways that don't relate to politics. The story about it is all over conventional media but I think that many of those who use it won't see it as a big thing either.

[Roses]

My husband and I have a postal vote, so much easier for us.

[Nearly Sane]

Not sure about this. There is a take that Scottish politics are becoming more Ulsterised (I think that underestimates the previous similarity) and I remember when there were sermons to vote Labour but I cannot see that if a church has certain values that it can or should avoid talking about them.


https://www.thenational.scot/news/18046887.bishops-advise-catholics-not-vote-tories-general-election/?ref=twtrec

[SteveH]

This election just gets weirder

https://metro.co.uk/2019/11/20/ralf-little-suspended-twitter-pretending-tory-party-press-office-11187105/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

"Press orifice"!

[The Accountant, OBE, KC]

Did anyone see Farage on Question Time Leaders' Special this week? He seemed to be stating that he wanted Britain to be free to "make its own laws" and free of ECJ interference by leaving the EU...even though the ECJ has found in his favour in a court case

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/parliament-guilty-of-bias-against-farage-group-over-eu-cash-ecj-rules/

The ECJ rules on upholding EU laws such as free movement of people and can block deportation of European criminals.

http://theconversation.com/when-britain-can-deport-eu-citizens-according-to-the-law-86896

What I am not clear on is how leaving the EU will change the role of the European Convention on Human Rights in British laws. A lot of people seemed frustrated during the referendum on decisions made by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) that prevented the deportation of criminals e.g. as it would breach Article 8 of the Convention - right to family life.

How much does this issue influence your voting decision?

ETA - I voted remain but I can see why someone this issue might prompt someone to vote Leave - but if we leave and the deal reached with the EU stops free movement of people, how do people who voted Brexit feel about the ECHR continuing to be involved in some deportation cases - as leaving the EU does not mean leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, which has been incorporated into UK law by our Parliament.

[Nearly Sane]

Did anyone see Farage on Question Time Leaders' Special this week? He seemed to be stating that he wanted Britain to be free to "make its own laws" and free of ECJ interference by leaving the EU...even though the ECJ has found in his favour in a court case

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/parliament-guilty-of-bias-against-farage-group-over-eu-cash-ecj-rules/

The ECJ rules on upholding EU laws such as free movement of people and can block deportation of European criminals.

http://theconversation.com/when-britain-can-deport-eu-citizens-according-to-the-law-86896

What I am not clear on is how leaving the EU will change the role of the European Convention on Human Rights in British laws. A lot of people seemed frustrated during the referendum on decisions made by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) that prevented the deportation of criminals e.g. as it would breach Article 8 of the Convention - right to family life.

How much does this issue influence your voting decision?

Good to see you posting again. The whole ECHR question is one of those where politicians make sure the issue is confused so that people just see it as part of the Europe nonsense. Farage has been foremost on this.

I'm not really voting on Brexit at all in this election since I would never vote Tory, and regard the Brexit Party as a scam rather than a political party. It's about the rest of the policies for me, and the individuals standing in my constituency. In another seat I might look at tactical voting for a non Brexit supporting party but that doesn't apply in my constituency.

[The Accountant, OBE, KC]

Thanks NS - yes I finally found/ made some time to come back and post and good to see the place is buzzing. I have been reading stuff on and off - especially on the Trans thread.

I am in a Labour borough - I like my MP - but also find myself torn between my opposition to certain Labour policies (education) and my distaste at voting Conservative, though I am drawn to the Conservative party's sudden tougher talk on law and order - there have been a lot of stabbings, muggings and break-ins in my area although it is still relatively safe compared to other areas. At the top of my road, an elderly couple were broken into at 3am by a group of men who threatened to stab them with a screwdriver if they did not hand over money and valuables. School boys regularly get mugged by groups of older kids/ young men.

Difficult to know how to prioritise local vs national issues, In the past in different elections I have voted Tory, Labour, Lib-Dem.

I was listening to a podcast about the ECHR - I think you are right that this issue has been confusing. I am not sure if the Brexit Party or any Leave voters have articulated their views on this issue somewhere.

[Nearly Sane]

Thanks NS - yes I finally found/ made some time to come back and post and good to see the place is buzzing. I have been reading stuff on and off - especially on the Trans thread.

I am in a Labour borough - I like my MP - but also find myself torn between my opposition to certain Labour policies (education) and my distaste at voting Conservative, though I am drawn to the Conservative party's sudden tougher talk on law and order - there have been a lot of stabbings, muggings and break-ins in my area although it is still relatively safe compared to other areas. At the top of my road, an elderly couple were broken into at 3am by a group of men who threatened to stab them with a screwdriver if they did not hand over money and valuables. School boys regularly get mugged by groups of older kids/ young men.

Difficult to know how to prioritise local vs national issues, In the past in different elections I have voted Tory, Labour, Lib-Dem.

I was listening to a podcast about the ECHR - I think you are right that this issue has been confusing. I am not sure if the Brexit Party or any Leave voters have articulated their views on this issue somewhere.

The problem with Tory policy on law and order is that if increasing police numbers is part of the solution then their policy caused it in part in the first place. I also don't think that getting tough is necessarily the answer and coming from a city where stabbings have substantially reduced, and a city where violence has always been an issue, that reduction has not been achieved by toughness but by adaptability.


UKIP and the Tories to some extent conflated the ECHR with all things EU in an attempt to confuse people. I don't think the Brexit party is real.

[Udayana]

The problem with Tory policy on law and order is that if increasing police numbers is part of the solution then their policy caused it in part in the first place. I also don't think that getting tough is necessarily the answer and coming from a city where stabbings have substantially reduced, and a city where violence has always been an issue, that reduction has not been achieved by toughness but by adaptability.

I was in NY during Giuliani's "tough" "zero-tolerance" period but don't think it was hard punitive policies that ended the crime waves - the major change was that the number of police were vastly increased. The new force recruited were basically the same kind of youths that would otherwise, jobless, have fallen into the gangs. As it was, they were everywhere in good numbers engaging positively with ordinary people - imo not "tough" at at all but changing the mindset.     

UKIP and the Tories to some extent conflated the ECHR with all things EU in an attempt to confuse people. I don't think the Brexit party is real.

The conflation is deliberate of-course. There seems to be a large contingent that want to withdraw from the EHCR, they would need to leave the EU before being able to do that.

[Nearly Sane]

The funding gap for the political parties is a bit big.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50508009