Coronavirus

[Walter]

Today I was due to be flying from Hong Kong to Borneo. I dod look at some alternatives when it became necessary to cancel; one of them was Tenerife.

I know a place in Tenerife where you can get some decent fish n' chips 

have a safe trip pal x

[Nearly Sane]

I know a place in Tenerife where you can get some decent fish n' chips 

have a safe trip pal x

Oh, I didn't book it. It was just the spread of Covid 19 to there that made me see it as a little ironic. I had 2 nights in Muthill at the weekend instead of Hong Kong and Borneo. Looking to sort out something later in the year now.

[SteveH]

If it stops people travelling - isn't that a good thing? The wider it spreads the higher the risk of it mutating to a more dangerous variety.

It'll probably mutate into a less dangerous variety. From an evolutionary pov, a sucessful virus will not kill its host, nor make the host so ill that they isolate themself, but just give them a cough and cold, so that they can spread the virus by droplets. A disease like that in 'Survivors', which rapidly kills nearly all the world's population, would be very unsuccessful evolutionariy, as it would soon run out of hosts.

[Roses]

A few minutes ago a message popped up on my screen stating that there is malware virus giving alarming misinformation about the corona virus. He anyone else seen that message?

[Udayana]

It'll probably mutate into a less dangerous variety. From an evolutionary pov, a sucessful virus will not kill its host, nor make the host so ill that they isolate themself, but just give them a cough and cold, so that they can spread the virus by droplets. A disease like that in 'Survivors', which rapidly kills nearly all the world's population, would be very unsuccessful evolutionariy, as it would soon run out of hosts.

True, but still best to try and isolate it, evaluate then eliminate as close to source as possible, rather than let it spread. Probably too late for this one.

[Udayana]

A few minutes ago a message popped up on my screen stating that there is malware virus giving alarming misinformation about the corona virus. He anyone else seen that message?

What caused the message to pop up?

Hackers are using the coronavirus scare to spread malware - be careful of clicking on links claiming to provide information but downloading or installing computer viruses.

 

[Roses]

What caused the message to pop up?

Hackers are using the coronavirus scare to spread malware - be careful of clicking on links claiming to provide information but downloading or installing computer viruses.

 

I never press a link if I am unsure of its veracity, I didn't have to press a link for this one it was a warning from one of my virus protection sites.

[Walter]

I never press a link if I am unsure of its veracity, I didn't have to press a link for this one it was a warning from one of my virus protection sites.

Lr

was it one of your corona virus protection sites ?

[Nearly Sane]

This is surely just the start of a number of postponements. I expect  that the Champions League will soon be impacted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51641149

[Roses]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51673068

There are three more reported cases of the virus, including one here in Wales, bringing the total so far to 19.

[Udayana]

Statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[SteveH]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51673068

There are three more reported cases of the virus, including one here in Wales, bringing the total so far to 19.

I bet more people than that die in car accidents, but we don't have a national panic about that

[Roses]

The first British person has died of the virus, they were on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

[Spud]

Someone, a medical person, on the radio was saying that most flu epidemics 'settle' when spring and summer arrive. He thought that would be the case with coronavirus.

[Aruntraveller]

Someone, a medical person, on the radio was saying that most flu epidemics 'settle' when spring and summer arrive. He thought that would be the case with coronavirus.

That is what they seem to be hoping for, although another medical expert did sound a note of caution in that there is no guarantee that Covid-19 will behave in the same way as seasonal flu.

[Nearly Sane]

How to take on coronavirus

https://newsthump.com/2020/02/28/glaswegian-scientists-discover-key-way-of-fighting-coronavirus-is-to-kick-its-fckin-cnt-in/?fbclid=IwAR2pj1Nx0Kch0_y2TJtopWbKt-eB1x325S-Tpbf1mQr9QPjOAbKRRRlX3zM

[jeremyp]

That is what they seem to be hoping for, although another medical expert did sound a note of caution in that there is no guarantee that Covid-19 will behave in the same way as seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu is more likely to be seasonal cold(s). Fewer people have had influenza than think they have.

A lot of viruses are very vulnerable to ultraviolet light which is one reason why they tend to be associated with the winer months. If coronavirus is one of these, we might expect the epidemic to fizzle out a bit as spring arrives, except it won't be spring everywhere on Earth.

By the way, the mortality rate from coronavirus is estimated at around 2% which is a bit higher than flu but much lower than ebola. It's my opinion that more people are going to die as a result of the inevitable economic downturn than directly from the virus.

[Udayana]

...
By the way, the mortality rate from coronavirus is estimated at around 2% which is a bit higher than flu but much lower than ebola. It's my opinion that more people are going to die as a result of the inevitable economic downturn than directly from the virus.

It depends on how many people catch it - given that we are unlikely to have a vaccine or remedy for about a year. It is much more contagious than normal flu. If it spreads freely (ie people give up self-isolating and there are no travel/meeting restrictions) - then assume 60% of the population catch it, and a mortality rate of 1.5% :   66m x 0.6 x 0.015 = 594k ie. around half a million people.

[jeremyp]

It depends on how many people catch it - given that we are unlikely to have a vaccine or remedy for about a year. It is much more contagious than normal flu. If it spreads freely (ie people give up self-isolating and there are no travel/meeting restrictions) - then assume 60% of the population catch it, and a mortality rate of 1.5% :   66m x 0.6 x 0.015 = 594k ie. around half a million people.

What is your reasoning for assuming that 60% of people in the UK will catch it?

[ad_orientem]

How to take on coronavirus

https://newsthump.com/2020/02/28/glaswegian-scientists-discover-key-way-of-fighting-coronavirus-is-to-kick-its-fckin-cnt-in/?fbclid=IwAR2pj1Nx0Kch0_y2TJtopWbKt-eB1x325S-Tpbf1mQr9QPjOAbKRRRlX3zM

[Roses]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51697991

Another 12 cases  have been reported in the UK, bringing the total up to 35.

[Udayana]

What is your reasoning for assuming that 60% of people in the UK will catch it?

That is currently the worst case figure being used by various epidemiologists as percentage infected worldwide - although if suitable precautions or actions are taken it will be kept well below that.

The difficulty is that so little is known so far - eg. how long people can be contagious before showing symptoms. The "14 days" in use is as much a guess as anything else.

There is no good estimate of the R₀ figure (the number of other people an infected person is likely to infect) normally used to calculate spread. For flu it is 1.2, For coronavirus it seems it might be between 2.5 and 4 - similar to the 1918 pandemic flu version. Ebola is 2.5.   
 
That is why Hancock is "taking nothing off the table"

[jeremyp]

That is currently the worst case figure being used by various epidemiologists as percentage infected worldwide

The worst case isn't really all that relevant to the point I made. I think it is more likely that the economic downturn will kill more people than the virus does directly.

There is no good estimate of the R₀ figure (the number of other people an infected person is likely to infect) normally used to calculate spread. For flu it is 1.2, For coronavirus it seems it might be between 2.5 and 4 - similar to the 1918 pandemic flu version. Ebola is 2.5.   

In the More or Less article on this very subject, they suggested it was around two. The higher estimates are hysterical nonsense.

[SteveH]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51697991

Another 12 cases  have been reported in the UK, bringing the total up to 35.

In a population of 67.5 million - big deal.

[Udayana]

The worst case isn't really all that relevant to the point I made. I think it is more likely that the economic downturn will kill more people than the virus does directly.
In the More or Less article on this very subject, they suggested it was around two. The higher estimates are hysterical nonsense.

In the broadcast at the start of Feb Natalie Mcdermot suggested the the R₀ was 2.5 and the mortality rate was between 2 and 3% (with caveats of course).  Two weeks later the figures they were working with were revised, showing a sudden jump in reported infections (broadcast 14 Feb), and we are now two weeks beyond that.

We now know that there were more infections than previously estimated (ie the reproduction figure was at least 2.5) so have a revised, lower, mortality rate of about 1.5% . The reproduction rate is dependent on how well control measures are working so, as we don't yet have much idea on that, is difficult to pin down.