Coronavirus

[Aruntraveller]

I'm not so much bothered about the 16,000 tests that weren't added on to the total as soon as they could be (which is just a glitch), but I am concerned that the Test and Trace system is still in its "infancy" or, more correctly, that this MP thinks it is acceptable that the Test and Trace system is still in its infancy, seven months after the pandemic started.

I agree the figure being added on doesn't matter that much and would be a glitch if figures were the only thing affected, but surely the fact that the tracing & tracking was delayed in these 16,000 cases is hugely important.

[Maeght]

What does 'learning to live with with Covid' mean in your view NS.

To me that is exactly what we are doing at the moment - flexing restrictions to keep the virus from running completely out of control, overwhelming the ability of the health service to cope and leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths. We are not getting it right all the time, and given that we are in a new exponential growth phase those restrictions need to be pretty stringent - in my view more so than they are at the moment, certainly at national level.

I've asked this many times on another forum I go on and rarely get an answer so would be interested in hear views on here. I think, as you say, it isn't much different than we are currently doing but with more and better testing and treatments we could go back to some greater normality over time but not yet and not for sometime. We have to continue to improve on social distancing measurers everywhere, technology to help (auto doors, UVC air purifiers, better masks, humidifiers etc,) carry on working from home, avoid potential superspreader events and get used to it. The current vaccines under development are unlikely to give long lasting sterilising immunity and giving it to everyone will be impossible so the virus is likely to be around in circulation for a long time and we have to continue to manage it and manage it better.

[jeremyp]

I agree the figure being added on doesn't matter that much and would be a glitch if figures were the only thing affected, but surely the fact that the tracing & tracking was delayed in these 16,000 cases is hugely important.

Yesterday I developed a slight cough and I measured my temperature this morning and it appeared to be slightly raised, although I don't really trust the thermometer I used. So I booked myself into a test centre this morning and had a COVID19 test. I will get the results hopefully within 48 hours "but it could take up to five days". Frankly, it's not acceptable if it takes 48 hours, never mind five days. There are serious problems with the test and trace system but, given the scale of the operation, you'd expect them when the service is in its infancy. That would include temporarily losing 16,000 results.

It is not acceptable that the service is still in its infancy. And it's not acceptable to use "it's in its infancy" as an excuse for a screw up.

 

[Aruntraveller]

Yesterday I developed a slight cough and I measured my temperature this morning and it appeared to be slightly raised, although I don't really trust the thermometer I used. So I booked myself into a test centre this morning and had a COVID19 test. I will get the results hopefully within 48 hours "but it could take up to five days". Frankly, it's not acceptable if it takes 48 hours, never mind five days. There are serious problems with the test and trace system but, given the scale of the operation, you'd expect them when the service is in its infancy. That would include temporarily losing 16,000 results.

It is not acceptable that the service is still in its infancy. And it's not acceptable to use "it's in its infancy" as an excuse for a screw up.

Agree. But more importantly I hope you are ok and get your result quickly.

[jeremyp]

Agree. But more importantly I hope you are ok and get your result quickly.

I'm sure I'm fine, but it's better safe than sorry.

I'm not at all frightened of it being COVID19. If I get it, I get it and I'll probably survive the experience. The reason I'm angry is that my life has to be put on hold until they get me my result and it's a pain in the arse. I can't ignore it (although I did consider ignoring it) because, if it is COVID19, people may catch it off me and people may die because of me.

[jeremyp]

More apparent stupidity. Lana Del Rey sports a fishnet face mask.

[Aruntraveller]

More apparent stupidity. Lana Del Rey sports a fishnet face mask.

Celebrity is no guarantee of intelligence, as if we needed proof.

[ippy]

Yesterday I developed a slight cough and I measured my temperature this morning and it appeared to be slightly raised, although I don't really trust the thermometer I used. So I booked myself into a test centre this morning and had a COVID19 test. I will get the results hopefully within 48 hours "but it could take up to five days". Frankly, it's not acceptable if it takes 48 hours, never mind five days. There are serious problems with the test and trace system but, given the scale of the operation, you'd expect them when the service is in its infancy. That would include temporarily losing 16,000 results.

It is not acceptable that the service is still in its infancy. And it's not acceptable to use "it's in its infancy" as an excuse for a screw up.

I heard that after a while there were people around in Africa that were immune to HIV, I suppose something similar would happen without doing anything with this virus but in the mean time we can only do our best.

I'm sure no government wants to get it wrong, it's not as though any government would be gaining anything by making mistakes.

We can all sit on our arses and point fingers that's easy, I try to social distance and wear a mask when appropriate plenty don't, who's to say this is the way and be 100% right, even I can't give you a 100% answer to this depressing Virol problem we have at the moment.

[Maeght]

I heard that after a while there were people around in Africa that were immune to HIV, I suppose something similar would happen without doing anything with this virus but in the mean time we can only do our best.

I'm sure no government wants to get it wrong, it's not as though any government would be gaining anything by making mistakes.

We can all sit on our arses and point fingers that's easy, I try to social distance and wear a mask when appropriate plenty don't, who's to say this is the way and be 100% right, even I can't give you a 100% answer to this depressing Virol problem we have at the moment.

Some people may be genetically immune or have a tendency to be asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms but the former is probably very low in numbers if any. People develop immunity from exposure to pathogens which generate antibodies and specific T and B cells which recognise the pathogen if exposed again. How long any of these things last and what protection they give is unknown, hence the issues with going down the herd immunity route. This also means that significant numbers of vulnerable people, unless totally isolated, would catch the virus and die. Herd immunity will take a long time to develop naturally and may be fragile if the immunity doesn't last long. It seems most likely that, even with a vaccine of the type currently under testing, that this virus will remain in circulation with people being reinfected but only having mild symptoms but for some people (who cannot be vaccinated for example or for whom the vaccine isn't effective) they will remain vulnerable to serious symptoms and death, especially if the protection given by the vaccine is insufficient to prevent viral shedding of those reinfected.

[SusanDoris]

What still puzzles me is that there is, apparently, a test which can be done and result achieved within 10 minutes. If such a fkit is indeed available - a friend has told he she has heard of it mentioned in news programmes several times - then perhaps it should be used.

[Maeght]

What still puzzles me is that there is, apparently, a test which can be done and result achieved within 10 minutes. If such a fkit is indeed available - a friend has told he she has heard of it mentioned in news programmes several times - then perhaps it should be used.

There are various tests but they are not all as accurate as others. I think the rapid test such as the one they use in Italy is only 80% accurate. We are testing and trialing various different tests and think we may have better ones soon but you never know, we have been promised a lot but it's not always been delivered.

[SteveH]

Some people may be genetically immune or have a tendency to be asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms but the former is probably very low in numbers if any.

I have read an expert estimate of natural immunity as being between 35% and 50%.

[Nearly Sane]

Boris tells us all to go to the cinema....


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-54387856?__twitter_impression=true

[Nearly Sane]

Meanwhile much speculation that Scotland will go back into a 'circuit breaking' lockdown for 2 weeks to be announced tomorrow.

[Maeght]

I have read an expert estimate of natural immunity as being between 35% and 50%.

There is speculation that there could be cross immunity at that level due to previous exposure to other coronaviruses such as some types of the common cold but it is speculation, and if it relies on T Cell response isn't necessarily a help regarding achieving herd immunity because T Cells usually take days or weeks to generate an immune response to infection during which time the individual is likely to still be able to shed virus and pass it on to others. Do you have a link to what you read at all?

[SteveH]

There is speculation that there could be cross immunity at that level due to previous exposure to other coronaviruses such as some types of the common cold but it is speculation, and if it relies on T Cell response isn't necessarily a help regarding achieving herd immunity because T Cells usually take days or weeks to generate an immune response to infection during which time the individual is likely to still be able to shed virus and pass it on to others. Do you have a link to what you read at all?

No - 'fraid not.

[Aruntraveller]

So Test and trace on an excel spreadsheet. World beating anybody?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/shock-and-despair-follow-revelations-that-world-beating-test-and-trace-system-is-being-run-on-excel/05/10/?

I wish I was making this fucking stuff up.

[Maeght]

No - 'fraid not.

Ok. I think it was a reference to protective T cells due to exposure to other coronaviruses but although there is a little evidence for this it is far from being certain and there are issues with relying on T Cells anyway.

[Maeght]

So Test and trace on an excel spreadsheet. World beating anybody?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/shock-and-despair-follow-revelations-that-world-beating-test-and-trace-system-is-being-run-on-excel/05/10/?

I wish I was making this fucking stuff up.

Incredible isn't it.

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting article


https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

[jeremyp]

Incredible isn't it.

I’m afraid it isn’t. This kind of screw up is all too common.

[Nearly Sane]

Hmmm...I think this could be phrased better


https://www.itv.com/news/2020-10-06/rishi-sunak-suggests-musicians-and-others-in-arts-should-retrain-and-find-other-jobs

[SteveH]

Corona in Excel sheets.

[Maeght]

Corona in Excel sheets.

Did you forget a few words there?

[jeremyp]

Corona in Excel sheets.

I'm not at all surprised. This sort of thing happens all the time. You're told you have to set some system up in a short time frame, so you hack something together using Excel. You promise yourself that you will review that decision later when you have got time, but, of course that time never arrives. Then one day you hit Excel's limits and everything falls apart in spectacular fashion. Then you hack together a work around that makes the whole thing even more creaky (which, from what I've heard is what they've done). Rinse and repeat.

There are three ways to fix this:

1. Use tools appropriate to the job. That means a database.

2. Upgrade hardware and software so you can use a modern version of Excel (which can deal with a million rows of data)

3. Split the Excel files into smaller batches - the chosen solution.

I can understand why they haven't immediately taken option 1 - they don't have time. I can't understand why they haven't taken option 2 unless it's a bureaucracy thing: they can't get the hardware and software in time, even though you or I might just go to a shop and buy a computer and then get Excel online.