Coronavirus

[ProfessorDavey]

The rate has been dropping for a while. I'm not just looking at this week's figures. Look at the shape of the black line

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

It's not an exponential curve.

Of course, I expect an increase following the last two weekends of the Euros and, if July 19th goes ahead as planned, I expect the rate to go exponential again, at least for a while.

Actually you can see the effect better here:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Scroll down to 'Percentage change in recent 7-day case rates by specimen date' - you are right that the percentage changes have been dropping since 28th June, but the decline over recent days is flattening meaning that the most recent days are potentially showing an increase in % change - quite likely we will see the trend stop and then reverse, just as you see in the same graph around 14th June.

Again I hope I'm wrong but my understanding of the data is that we saw a slowing of the rate of increase over the past couple of weeks, but it is beginning to pick up again.

[Roses]

News reports suggest the covid rate is rising on a daily basis, it isn't good in our part of Wales.

[ProfessorDavey]

News reports suggest the covid rate is rising on a daily basis, it isn't good in our part of Wales.

Yes it is rising - the discussion between Jeremy and me is whether there is evidence that the rate at which it is rising is beginning to slow, suggesting we might be coming close to the peak.

[Nearly Sane]

And 48,553 new cases today


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Roses]

With the lifting of restrictions in England next week the NHS will soon be overwhelmed again.

[ProfessorDavey]

With the lifting of restrictions in England next week the NHS will soon be overwhelmed again.

Quite possibly.

And the notion that restrictions are being lifted is crazy. Perhaps they are being in theory but in reality I a concerned that my life and my family's is going to be constrained more than at any time since general lockdown, because of the self-isolation issue.

So my daughter is currently self isolating since one of her friends tested positive at school. Most of the people I know with school age kids have had this at least once. My son also had to self isolate a couple of weeks ago, without having any real knowledge of who he had come into contact.

Now we are supposed to be going on holiday as a family in mid August, but I am really, really worried that we won't be able to do as one (or more) of the five of us will be self isolating (three of us are fully jabbed and one has had a single jab). So there is a real possibility that we will feel the need to go into effective self isolation for a couple of weeks before we go to reduce that risk.

So much for 'Freedom Day'

[Roses]

Our grandchildren have had to self isolate a number of times when classmates have tested positive for the virus.

[SteveH]

Legal restrictions are being lifted, but many shop chains are choosing to continue insisting on masks and social distancing, and many people, including me, will continue to observe them anyway, so I think Roses' apocalyptic vision is a little exaggerated.

[ProfessorDavey]

Legal restrictions are being lifted ...

But they aren't all being lifted. In terms of 'freedom' the most significant not being lifted is the legal requirement to self isolate. And with the case numbers sky rocketing, and likely to continue to do so there will be vast numbers in that position. That will affect most of us, I suspect, not just in terms of actually not being able to do anything outside your own home (that's about the most restricted you can be) but also huge impacts on businesses as key staff vanish for 10 days.

[Nearly Sane]

But they aren't all being lifted. In terms of 'freedom' the most significant not being lifted is the legal requirement to self isolate. And with the case numbers sky rocketing, and likely to continue to do so there will be vast numbers in that position. That will affect most of us, I suspect, not just in terms of actually not being able to do anything outside your own home (that's about the most restricted you can be) but also huge impacts on businesses as key staff vanish for 10 days.

And many of those isolating will be in the NHS

[Roses]

Legal restrictions are being lifted, but many shop chains are choosing to continue insisting on masks and social distancing, and many people, including me, will continue to observe them anyway, so I think Roses' apocalyptic vision is a little exaggerated.

Not according to medics interviewed on the news channels. 

[Robbie]

From what I've read today there is more than one opinion.
It's not a bad thing for any of them to paint a bad possible scenario right now.

[ProfessorDavey]

And many of those isolating will be in the NHS

A fairly sizeable number I suspect.

At the moment the virus is running rampant through schools. If your child tests positive you will need to self isolate, including those working in the NHS. If your child has to self isolate because they've been in contact with someone who tests positive you don't need to self isolate in theory. But if your child is too young to be left on their own one or other parent will have to tay at home unless they can put in place other arrangements.

The whole of my daughter's year (210 kids) are now self isolating.

Now we are just about at the end of term so hopefully the period of mass self isolation of hundreds of kids may be coming to an end, but it has caused chaos over the last few weeks for working families with school aged kids.

[Spud]

Unfortunately, that's not true. The more people who get the virus, the more opportunity there is for a strain to develop that has immunity to our vaccines. If it does develop, it will become the dominant strain fairly quickly.

Yes - senior moment from me there.
It seems that achieving herd immunity has been traded for reduced morbidity  and mortality, at least in the short term.
Had we only shielded the vulnerable instead of total lockdown, and not used the current type of vaccines with a pandemic already underway, it's possible we could have achieved herd immunity through natural infection of the fitter individuals. Current vaccines induce an antibody response, but while this is happening the person can still be infected. Following natural infection you get an innate immune response which prevents reinfection while you're making antibodies. This prevents selection of escape variants and leads to herd immunity.
https://youtu.be/cjMZvpmuaKY

[Nearly Sane]

From what I've read today there is more than one opinion.
It's not a bad thing for any of them to paint a bad possible scenario right now.

Like this for exampke


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

[Nearly Sane]

51, 870 new cases


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[ProfessorDavey]

51, 870 new cases


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

After a brief flattening of the curve the case numbers are rising very steeply again.

Does anyone seriously think that with the case numbers and trend as they are and hospitalisations beginning to rise steeply too that Monday is the right time to get rid of most restrictions? Bonkers.

[Nearly Sane]

Not according to medics interviewed on the news channels.

Or indeed here


https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchester-starts-opening-extra-21050865

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Yes - senior moment from me there.
It seems that achieving herd immunity has been traded for reduced morbidity  and mortality, at least in the short term.
Had we only shielded the vulnerable instead of total lockdown, and not used the current type of vaccines with a pandemic already underway, it's possible we could have achieved herd immunity through natural infection of the fitter individuals. Current vaccines induce an antibody response, but while this is happening the person can still be infected. Following natural infection you get an innate immune response which prevents reinfection while you're making antibodies. This prevents selection of escape variants and leads to herd immunity.
https://youtu.be/cjMZvpmuaKY

You can't shield the vulnerable in mass settings the care home disaster taught us that. Nor does it work where the non vulnerable share housing with the vulnerable.

Human Herd immunity as far as I know was never talked about and is a Tory construct guaranteed to end in Genocide. Johnson is a bull in a china shop he fell on a kid at a photo opportunity and is a machine in terms of getting his way. He was going to have Herd immunity. Laugh at him lose an election, get one over him over bending the knee? Have some covid and see how you get on with that you peasants. 

[jeremyp]

Yes it is rising - the discussion between Jeremy and me is whether there is evidence that the rate at which it is rising is beginning to slow, suggesting we might be coming close to the peak.

Unfortunately, it went up again yesterday and again today.

There is now officially no good news.

[ProfessorDavey]

Unfortunately, it went up again yesterday and again today.

There is now officially no good news.

Indeed - there was a brief flattening (for whatever reason) but we seem back to the steep trajectory.

Let's hope there is an element of Euros and schools in the numbers and now that the former is over and schools will already have broken up or will do early next week that we will see a slowing of the rate of increase from next week onwards.

[Nearly Sane]

Completely mixed messages



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57869880

[Roses]

The Government seems to change its mind from one day to the next, it is no wonder people are getting mixed messages.

[Nearly Sane]

It's all going so well



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-birmingham-queen-elizabeth-hospital-operations-b1884914.html

[Nearly Sane]

Sajid Javid tests positive



https://news.sky.com/story/health-secretary-sajid-javid-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-and-has-mild-symptoms-12357736