Coronavirus

[Nearly Sane]

Perhaps, but they could claim compensation from the government, presumably (which may be why the government isn't ordering them to shut, the cynic in me suggests).

Govt has no duty to compensate. It needs to tell them to close and tell the insurers to pay up. Lots of places near me shutting anyway from tonight. Number of friends, ok bar staff that I have developed a symbiotic relationship with, being laid off.

[Walter]

If I had been PM my strategy would have been , do nothing let it take it's course ,
Clear out the dead wood rather than destroy the lives of millions financially .

[SteveH]

The country's heading for lockdown, but I remain infuriatingly healthy, so I can't have a week off work - damn! I bet I get it at the end of April/beginning of May, when I've got two weeks' annual leave!

[SteveH]

If I had been PM my strategy would have been do nothing let it take its course,
and clear out the dead wood, rather than destroy the lives of millions financially .

Don't overdo the caring, sharing soppiness, or people will think you're a snowflake. (Corrected your punctuation and grammar for you.)

[Nearly Sane]

After? this is over we need to have a proper investigation into the whole process. Not that the below is necessarily true but to just ignore any possible lessons would be foolish.


https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths?__twitter_impression=true

[Nearly Sane]

If I had been PM my strategy would have been , do nothing let it take it's course ,
Clear out the dead wood rather than destroy the lives of millions financially .

Meaningless in a global economy. Gets rid of your core vote.

[Walter]

Don't overdo the caring, sharing soppiness, or people will think you're a snowflake. (Corrected you punctuation and grammar for you.)

thanks for the corrections , I'm triping on an old iPhone 4 with little signal and I can't see the screen half the time !!

Also , snowflakery never won fair lady

[Walter]

Btw , that last line was NEVER the motto of the SAS 😳

[wigginhall]

After? this is over we need to have a proper investigation into the whole process. Not that the below is necessarily true but to just ignore any possible lessons would be foolish.


https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths?__twitter_impression=true

I'm seeing this thread quoted a lot, along with Twitter threads by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the Black Swan.  Some mathematicians and modellers seem scornful of the initial govt response, especially any reference to herd immunity.  I expect one day, there will be an enquiry.   Not being a mathematician, I find it hard to follow.

[SteveH]

I'm not saying things are getting out of hand, but I've just seen a group of flagellants walking down my street.

[Walter]

Meaningless in a global economy. Gets rid of your core vote.

i was only looking at one term anyway , couldn't care less after that !

[Walter]

Just to be serious for a moment ( I know) !

I drew out a wad of cash this morning . I'm thinking cash may be required increasingly in the near future 👽

[SteveH]

Just to be serious for a moment ( I know) !

I drew out a wad of cash this morning . I'm thinking cash may be required increasingly in the near future 👽

Before we start eating each other and searching for food and fuel in the ruins of our abandoned cities, you mean?

[wigginhall]

Meaningless in a global economy. Gets rid of your core vote.

I think also Spanish flu mutated, and its second wave killed a lot of young people.

[Udayana]

How do you stop everyone moving about though? Hospitals, food delivery needs to continue.

The Italian, Spanish and French measures are, imo, unavoidable given where we are now.

 "the French president, Emmanuel Macron, said the citizens must stay at home from midday on Tuesday for at least 15 days."

Along with this we need a system to record people vulnerable and who have been or are infected or available for jobs/skills needed.  Only authorised travel - eg. for essential jobs with all destinations and contacts recorded. Mobiles can be used to obtain and or check authorisation, movement and contacts.   

[Udayana]

I'm seeing this thread quoted a lot, along with Twitter threads by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the Black Swan.  Some mathematicians and modellers seem scornful of the initial govt response, especially any reference to herd immunity.  I expect one day, there will be an enquiry.   Not being a mathematician, I find it hard to follow.

There are a number of different models but the underlying maths is common and well understood. The models give different outputs depending on the assumptions (eg about the virus) and figures fed in - just like a big spreadsheet really.

You only have to feed in slightly incorrect data to get massive differences in outcomes. It is easy to introduce bias into the input - especially if you do not have reliable figures from sampling or, in this case, testing. Then you will interpret the outputs with the same biases in play.
   

[Nearly Sane]

The US President tweeting inflammatory shite as usual


'Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump


The United States will be powerfully supporting those industries, like Airlines and others, that are particularly affected by the Chinese Virus. We will be stronger than ever before!'

[Nearly Sane]

There are a number of different models but the underlying maths is common and well understood. The models give different outputs depending on the assumptions (eg about the virus) and figures fed in - just like a big spreadsheet really.

You only have to feed in slightly incorrect data to get massive differences in outcomes. It is easy to introduce bias into the input - especially if you do not have reliable figures from sampling or, in this case, testing. Then you will interpret the outputs with the same biases in play.
   

But the question then is are the figures being fed in as a result of political decisions?

[wigginhall]

There are a number of different models but the underlying maths is common and well understood. The models give different outputs depending on the assumptions (eg about the virus) and figures fed in - just like a big spreadsheet really.

You only have to feed in slightly incorrect data to get massive differences in outcomes. It is easy to introduce bias into the input - especially if you do not have reliable figures from sampling or, in this case, testing. Then you will interpret the outputs with the same biases in play.
   

I thought one of Taleb's points was that herd immunity can only be achieved via vaccination.  To get there via a lot of people catching the virus involves a lot of deaths, and may not achieve immunity.  Did polio?

[Udayana]

But the question then is are the figures being fed in as a result of political decisions?

I don't think so, and I can't see that that would be to anyone's benefit. The plans were built on data available at the start of Feb, prior to the data obtained from Italy - so reruns of the models with later data have given better predictions (with worse trajectory). I suspect that UK testing was was restricted because of lack of testing capacity - continuing testing (as in the containment phase) would have given more indication of what was going to happen.   

If you are self-isolating or otherwise have time to while away, this, probably too detailed, video streamed from the RCP in Feb. might be of interest. but it is important not speculate on or over-interpret what they are saying. The 3rd presenter, John Edmunds (from the LSHTM), defended some aspects of the herd immunity idea on Channel 4 last week.

https://www.rcplondon.ac.uk/video/live-streaming

(not sure how long the link will work).

[Udayana]

I thought one of Taleb's points was that herd immunity can only be achieved via vaccination.  To get there via a lot of people catching the virus involves a lot of deaths, and may not achieve immunity.  Did polio?

Indeed, but it's not a law, just maths. The proportion of the pop that needs to be infected (or immunised) for herd immunity is (R₀-1)/R₀.

Plug in your value for R₀ - but that value depends on many other factors, including availability of vaccines and can be different in different countries or cultures, and must be re-evaluated on an ongoing basis.

[jeremyp]

"Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it.”

Patrick Vallance, chief scientific advisor, FT quote.

He walked that back though.

[jeremyp]

What a pointless comment! Are you arguing for the sake of it? Again?

You claimed that drug testing was excessive and costing lives. But there is a reason why drug testing is the way it is: using the drug might cost more lives than it saves.

For example, if you develop a vaccine, you have to make sure that it is both effective and it doesn't give people the disease it is supposed to prevent.

Think about how you would do that for coronavirus. Are you going to give people the vaccine unless you have done everything possible to show it won't give them the disease? (I don't know how you'd do that btw).

How are you going to test its effectiveness? One way would be to give people the vaccine and then deliberately expose them to the disease. How ethical does that sound to you? Another way is to give people the vaccine and then wait some time to see how many get the disease, but this takes time.

Quit whining. The vaccine will be ready when it is ready and cutting corners could be disastrous.

[jeremyp]

Johnson was in a meeting with 60 manufacturers to discuss production of respirators and referred to it  as 'Operation Last Gasp'

That's good.

[Roses]

It has been reported that Stanley Johnson, the daddy of Boris has stuck two fingers up to his son. He says if he wants to go to the pub he will continue to do so.