Coronavirus

[SteveH]

More breaking news: antidote discovered!

[Roses]

A sixth person has died of the virus in the UK, an 80 years man in Watford with underlying health issues.

There are now 373 cases of the virus here in the UK a rise of 54 since yesterday.

[wigginhall]

Some people are saying that an Italian style crackdown is inevitable, but is being held back, for political reasons.   I have no idea if this correct.  I guess if there is a surge in numbers, into the tens of thousands, it will happen.  But it's the severity also, how many intensive care beds will be available, with ventilation equipment?

[Aruntraveller]

Some people are saying that an Italian style crackdown is inevitable, but is being held back, for political reasons.   I have no idea if this correct.  I guess if there is a surge in numbers, into the tens of thousands, it will happen.  But it's the severity also, how many intensive care beds will be available, with ventilation equipment?

I'd be more cynical than that. Covid 19 disproportionately affects the older population. Hmmm......you know we just might have the answer to social care here, and a boost to the economy with all those legacies and less to pay out in pensions.

And don't tell me you haven't all thought that.

[Udayana]

Some people are saying that an Italian style crackdown is inevitable, but is being held back, for political reasons.   I have no idea if this correct.  I guess if there is a surge in numbers, into the tens of thousands, it will happen.  But it's the severity also, how many intensive care beds will be available, with ventilation equipment?

Yes, well, further measures are inevitable. Do you mean they are being held back for economic, rather than "political", reasons?

Crackdown measures being proposed are nearly all to help reduce spread in the  general population. We want to slow that spread, but as the main problem is going to be inability of hospitals to cope with critical cases, maybe the main thrust should be to identify those most likely to be seriously ill and put in specific measures to make sure they are protected from infection?
 

[Udayana]

I'd be more cynical than that. Covid 19 disproportionately affects the older population. Hmmm......you know we just might have the answer to social care here, and a boost to the economy with all those legacies and less to pay out in pensions.

And don't tell me you haven't all thought that.

hmm, extremely cynical! I think even Cummings' new hires would balk at that. 

[Aruntraveller]

hmm, extremely cynical! I think even Cummings' new hires would balk at that.

You think.

Hmmmm....claimants for benefits forced back to work 2 weeks before dying. Windrush. Grenfell. 

Not cynical. Learning by experience.

[wigginhall]

Richard Horton, editor of the Lancet, "the evidence is clear. We need urgent implementation of social distancing and closure policies. The government is playing roulette with the public. This is a major error."     Twitter.

[Udayana]

You think.

Hmmmm....claimants for benefits forced back to work 2 weeks before dying. Windrush. Grenfell. 

Not cynical. Learning by experience.

Yeah - but they weren't Conservative voters...

[Dicky Underpants]

The shutdown of Italy makes one wonder how long it is until we see this here. At work yesterday, I suggested that we were about 10 days behind Italy.

So far the Bristol area has reported only two victims, I believe. However, a cook/food re-heater in Gre
gg's, Nailsea near Bristol recently came back from a holiday in Venice, and went straight back to work.
The disease rate of those who frequent Gregg's is probably quite high in any case, but if Nailsea suddenly becomes a hotbed of the Corona virus, I think we'll be able to guess why.

[Nearly Sane]

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to form coalition govt in Republic of Ireland in part because of Covid 19!

[Robbie]

I'd be more cynical than that. Covid 19 disproportionately affects the older population. Hmmm......you know we just might have the answer to social care here, and a boost to the economy with all those legacies and less to pay out in pensions.

And don't tell me you haven't all thought that.

I've thought of it Trent, so have others and none of us want to think it, we're not conspiracy theorists.

I read that Trump has urged everyone to 'stay calm and it will go away'. Ha!

Apparently there are now two confirmed cases in Bromley where I live adn work but so far everyone is carrying on as usual with obvious sensible precautions.

[Aruntraveller]

And Nadine Dorries:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51827356

[Nearly Sane]

'Virus conference gets cancelled due to virus

A coronavirus conference has been cancelled because of the coronavirus, according to a Bloomberg report.

US Think Tank the Council on Foreign Relations was due to hold a conference called "Doing Business Under Coronavirus" on Friday in New York.'

[Nearly Sane]

On a very quiet train this morning. I think govt advice is likely to change in the next couple of days. The Nadine Dorries effect.

[wigginhall]

Maybe an acceptance that Italy is a warning, and a prediction.

[Roses]

I wonder how many MPs now have the virus?

[Roses]

There are now 456 confirmed cases of the virus in the UK, 83 more cases than yesterday.

[Nearly Sane]

Surely this is the start of the end of the Europa League and the Champions league for this season, and probably the Euros

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51831256

[wigginhall]

Merkel warns that 70% of Germans could catch the virus.  And?

But a German virologist,  Alexander Kekule, stated that she was wrong, and a max of 40 000, might get infected.

[jeremyp]

We appear to be about 13 days behind Italy in terms of cases - I can't see why we haven't at least switched all sports events to being behind closed doors.

It should be obvious. If people can’t go to the game, they’ll watch it on the telly.

In a pub.

Italy’s economy is almost certainly in a death spiral thanks to the measures they are taking. The deaths and hardship that will result from that may outnumber the coronavirus deaths.

I’m not saying that it’s wrong to start banning sports events etc, I’m just saying there is a lot more to figuring out the best course of action than panicking. Personally, I think the British government advisors have a better handle on it than you or I do.

[ad_orientem]

Merkel warns that 70% of Germans could catch the virus.  And?

But a German virologist,  Alexander Kekule, stated that she was wrong, and a max of 40 000, might get infected.

I thought that statement was irresponsible. What she bases that figure on, I don't know. Of course, being ready for a worst case scenario is a different thing.

[Roses]

The WHO has now labelled the coronavirus as a pandemic.

[Udayana]

Merkel warns that 70% of Germans could catch the virus.  And?

But a German virologist,  Alexander Kekule, stated that she was wrong, and a max of 40 000, might get infected.

They can both be right depending on the context of their statements.

The virologist is basing his figure on the figures for China/Hubei - but that was achieved using authoritarian power to enforce contagion control measures - unlikely to be used in Germany.

Merkel is probably using figures from a model in which German control measures do not work or are abandoned, or a reasonable worst case. We are not told.

[Udayana]

It should be obvious. If people can’t go to the game, they’ll watch it on the telly.

In a pub.

Italy’s economy is almost certainly in a death spiral thanks to the measures they are taking. The deaths and hardship that will result from that may outnumber the coronavirus deaths.

I’m not saying that it’s wrong to start banning sports events etc, I’m just saying there is a lot more to figuring out the best course of action than panicking. Personally, I think the British government advisors have a better handle on it than you or I do.

I mostly agree. I think the next step here is "cocooning" care homes as suggested here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51828000

 That should be relatively easy to do. Then need to find ways to extend to vulnerable (ie elderly with diabetes, heart or lung problems) people in the community.

We know how to count people that die of a disease, but how do you count people dying because of canceled sports events? Or an economy packing up?

Those economic problems can be mitigated - and, at worst, if control measures are having too large an effect on daily life people will abandon them.