Coronavirus

[Roses]

i bet he wins all the medals then 😷

That goes without saying as he will be the only one taking part.

[jakswan]

There's not much point in banging on about herd immunity, as we can only get that if the vast majority of the population get the virus, which is exactly what we want to avoid,

Nope there is no avoiding that, the vast majority will get the virus.

[Udayana]

The arguments between locking down and herd immunity seem a bit clearer.  One of the chief arguments against the former, as in some Asian countries, is that when the lockdown is released, the epidemic starts again.   

True. If you have stopped or slowed the rate of spread using lockdown then you need to put into effect plans to prevent infection of the most vulnerable and release lockdown slowly such that your health service does not get overloaded by new critical cases. 

One of the points about herd immunity is that NHS is in poor shape, and cannot cope with a spike now, so delay it for months, so help the virus spread now.  Yoiks, do you feel lucky?

That makes no sense: how does letting it spread now delay the spike? What action have they taken to isolate the elderly (over 60? 65?) or otherwise vulnerable?

To reach herd immunity (assuming they are correct that we will have it after 60% of pop has been infected and recovered) will take at least 6 months .. and our health service will have crashed well before then. 

We need to see the assumptions and figures they have been working with and explanations for the plans and actions they propose.
 
Half a million elderly and vulnerable dying is approx. a doubling of annual UK deaths. So in theory we can cope with that  - but it is entirely unnecessary and unacceptable.
 

[wigginhall]

There's not much point in banging on about herd immunity, as we can only get that if the vast majority of the population get the virus, which is exactly what we want to avoid, and which would result in hundreds of thousands of deaths. The herd immunity we read about for measles is acquired by mass immunisation, and is threatened by the anti-vax idiots, but there is no vaccine for Covid-19 yet, nor likely to be until it's all over.

I thought it's the reverse.  They want you to get the virus, but not with a peak, which the NHS could not cope with.  Thus leaving schools open, helps the spread.  The problem with a lockdown is that immunity doesn't spread, so you get fresh epidemics.  But Udayana's point stands, you risk half a million dead, and how do you protect the old? 

[SteveH]

Nope there is no avoiding that, the vast majority will get the virus.

Nonsense - you can't know that, and I don't think any experts are saying that.

[wigginhall]

Some epidemiologists are saying that the virus is uncontrollable.   Check out Adam Kucharski, twitter thread.

[SteveH]

Some epidemiologists are saying that the virus is uncontrollable.   Check out Adam Kucharski, twitter thread.

There are always scaremongers, even among the experts. At the height of the BSE crisis, one expert, notorious fro always preseting the wort-case scenario as the most likely outcome, said that we could lose as entire generation.

[Roses]

As from Monday the US is extending its travel ban for non US citizens to the UK and Ireland.

[SteveH]

I've looked up Adam Kurcharski on Twitter, and he doesn't seem to be saying what you say he's saying. https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664

[Roses]

Trump says he has taken the test for the virus, having been is close contact with someone who tested positive.  He will have to wait 48hrs for the result, he says he isn't going to self-isolate as he is feeling well! YE GODS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

[Walter]

Littleroses ;
Listening to the news so you don't have to ! 

[ad_orientem]

ad_o

I woke today with a sore throat and throbbing headache , have I been infected by the 7 pints of corona I had last night ? 🍻

Ha ha!😂

[ad_orientem]

Nonsense - you can't know that, and I don't think any experts are saying that.

Indeed. No ine can. I get annoyed at the scaremongering.

[Nearly Sane]

Been shopping


https://www.amazon.com/Bubonic-Plague-Doctor-Costume-Headsock/dp/B00B8NPCY2?ref_=fsclp_pl_dp_1

[Harrowby Hall]

There are always scaremongers, even among the experts. At the height of the BSE crisis, one expert, notorious fro always preseting the wort-case scenario as the most likely outcome, said that we could lose as entire generation.

COVID 19 and BSE are not comparable. BSE was preventable - it was a consequence of cattle food preparation and was transmitted to humans as a result of poor butchery techniques..  COVID 19 in a virus at loose in the environment.

[jeremyp]

I’m sitting in a restaurant in Ouistreham waiting for the ferry to Portsmouth and I’ve just found out that France is shutting down at midnight.

Madness

[Nearly Sane]

I’m sitting in a restaurant in Ouistreham waiting for the ferry to Portsmouth and I’ve just found out that France is shutting down at midnight.

Madness

so your take is that the UK govt are following expert instruction, but France isn't? How can you tell the difference?

[Walter]

so your take is that the UK govt are following expert instruction, but France isn't? How can you tell the difference?

cos one gvmt doesn't know what it's doing ....
and the other's French 😱

[Spud]

Reminds me of when I cooked rice on a gas stove in Calais, storms having delayed the ferry. Had to strain it through a T-shirt.

[jakswan]

Nonsense - you can't know that, and I don't think any experts are saying that.

I just got that impression from watching the news. I don't think it is scaremongering, this is what the government is trying to do:-

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/39B6/production/_111247741_controlled_uncontrolled_transmission_v02_640-nc.png

They are talking about lowering the peak, most people will still get the virus.

More drastic measures might mean you flatten that peak even more but you will end up in a worse situation by next winter.

Watch the Video.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

[wigginhall]

Peston talking about quarantine for all over 70s for 4 months.   I thought this was a spoof.  On twitter.

[Udayana]

I just got that impression from watching the news. I don't think it is scaremongering, this is what the government is trying to do:-

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/39B6/production/_111247741_controlled_uncontrolled_transmission_v02_640-nc.png

Sorry, that diagram is just plain wrong. That is not what they want or what will happen if the plan works.

They are talking about lowering the peak, most people will still get the virus.

More drastic measures might mean you flatten that peak even more but you will end up in a worse situation by next winter.

Watch the Video.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

The reason for delaying control measures is to use as much of the free capacity that they have earlier - before the peak. They also think that, as some people will have had the virus and recovered, some people will have immunity by the time of the peak - so it will be flattened.

The risks are that by the time they do impose heavier controls the numbers of infected are rising so fast that they don't work and we just end up with an uncontrolled peak. Also, the number of immune people by that time is not enough to do any flattening.

The only way to avoid those risks (imo) is to quarantine (protect) vulnerable people from infection - that can only be done if there is time to cocoon them (or whatever system is best) before infections take off uncontrollably. Stronger controls earlier can buy that time.



 

[SteveH]

COVID 19 and BSE are not comparable. BSE was preventable - it was a consequence of cattle food preparation and was transmitted to humans as a result of poor butchery techniques..  COVID 19 in a virus at loose in the environment.

Quite, but that was not the point of my typo-infested post.

[ad_orientem]

COVID 19 and BSE are not comparable. BSE was preventable - it was a consequence of cattle food preparation and was transmitted to humans as a result of poor butchery techniques..  COVID 19 in a virus at loose in the environment.

 

Covid 19 could have been prevented, maybe, if the Chinese were willing to change their eating habits.

[jakswan]

Sorry, that diagram is just plain wrong. That is not what they want or what will happen if the plan works.

That diagram was produced by the BBC after attending a press conference presented by chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance. As far as I can tell it is a copy of the diagram used by Vallance in the presentation.

The reason for delaying control measures is to use as much of the free capacity that they have earlier - before the peak. They also think that, as some people will have had the virus and recovered, some people will have immunity by the time of the peak - so it will be flattened.

Where exactly does Vallance say that?

The risks are that by the time they do impose heavier controls the numbers of infected are rising so fast that they don't work and we just end up with an uncontrolled peak. Also, the number of immune people by that time is not enough to do any flattening.

Again where are you getting this from?

The only way to avoid those risks (imo) is to quarantine (protect) vulnerable people from infection - that can only be done if there is time to cocoon them (or whatever system is best) before infections take off uncontrollably. Stronger controls earlier can buy that time.

As Vallance stated there is a risk if you do this too early.