Coronavirus

[jeremyp]

Govt sources are not leaks.

Clearly I have been watching too much Yes Prime Minister.

If it was a leak, the govt should/would be trying to find out who. They aren't

Not if they were the source of the leak. In any case, whether you call it a leak or an anonymous briefing, it is not a policy announcement.

[jakswan]

I'm not convinced that herd immunity would work anyway. Nobody has yet said that you can't catch it more than once. After all, a vast proportion of the population has caught flu, and there's no herd immunity to that.

I thought as you get a dose of one of the flu's you then become immune for a time. If enough people lose the immunity it spreads.

Nobody has yet said that you can't catch it more than once.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection-get-covid-19-twice-sick-spread-relapse-a9400691.html
According to Li QinGyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at China Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, those who have been infected with Covid-19 develop a protective antibody - but it isn’t clear how long the protection lasts.

[jeremyp]

I thought as you get a dose of one of the flu's you then become immune for a time. If enough people lose the immunity it spreads.

As I understand it, the problem is that there are many different strains of flu and new ones keep mutating all the time. The same might apply to coronavirus.

Or it might not, in which case, those of us who survive this outbreak need not worry about it again for a while.

[Udayana]

That diagram was produced by the BBC after attending a press conference presented by chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance. As far as I can tell it is a copy of the diagram used by Vallance in the presentation.

So what figures or model was used to produce it? What measures will be in place to prevent the sharp rise in infections and hospitalisations so that we get the slow gentle and limited rise with a later peak? 

Where exactly does Vallance say that?

With a rapid high rise, the capacity is almost immediately overwhelmed, so delaying tactics must be used allowing people to be treated before the (delayed) peak. Vallance himself mentions building up "herd immunity".

 
Again where are you getting this from?

That is what happened in China, before they went on lockdown. And why Italy, Spain, France are in lockdown.

As Vallance stated there is a risk if you do this too early.

There is, that is why you need to plan for what happens as controls are lifted or otherwise released.

The closest to the desired Vallance chart is this from South Korea:
https://www.statista.com/chart/21095/covid-19-infections-in-south-korea/

Which they achieved without lockdown despite the large initial outbreak. It's down to good management, testing and open communications from the govt.
 

[Udayana]

I know two over 70 people who will ignore the self isolation thing. They are both pretty fit and healthy for their age and they can't see any reason why they should make themselves miserable for their own protection.

Of-course that is entirely their own choice. Presumably they can rely on private health insurance to cover them if they get ill.

[Udayana]

Aside from the medical risks and attempts to control the spread of the virus, should restrictions such as requiring the over 70s to isolate be introduced then how could these be effectively enforced?

We, both the population and government, have no practical experience to fall back on which is why effective leadership is important if people are to both police and behave themselves, and especially if it got to a stage where rationing was needed.

Surely if Govt. communications and responsible media effectively explained what was needed and why, we wouldn't need to "enforce" these behaviours?

The economy, supplies, and so on will come under pressure because of what happens in China, US, Europe  and so on. But what happens here is entirely down to UK choices: Protect as many vulnerable people as possible from becoming infected, providing whatever help they need,  and life can go on normally and the whole thing will be over sometime next year.

If it is a "free for all" it will cause misery for years to come.

 

[Nearly Sane]

Was looking at supermarket order  and earliest date we could get is 3rd of April. Also wondering if supermarkets will reverse their policy on plastic bags not being used in order to reduce contact at deliveries

[SteveH]

It is an outcome not a solution.

First epidemic then endemic.

Yes, quite - but some people, on here and elsewhere, have been suggesting that herd immunity is something to be aimed at. We can't have that without an apocalyptic epidemic of 1918-19 flu proportions or worse, unless a vaccine is developed, manufactured, and used for a mass immunisation in time.

[wigginhall]

Went to the local bird reserve, expecting a ghost town, but it was completely jammed, partly because they have a cafe.   My wife thought it was fin de siecle, or eat drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we d-d-d don't know.

[Nearly Sane]

Went to the local bird reserve, expecting a ghost town, but it was completely jammed, partly because they have a cafe.   My wife thought it was fin de siecle, or eat drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we d-d-d don't know.

Definitely the feeling I got yesterday in Glasgow. Thinking I will pop out to my local this afternoon and bid it farewell for the meantime

[Nearly Sane]

Wondering if there will be any long term effects of this. Might we see less air travel? Will we see labour rights change? Will we see more preparedness and coordination?

[SteveH]

An alternative to shaking hands at the peace in church services? It's Hindu, not Christian, but I've always thought it charming and elegant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namaste

[Nearly Sane]

An alternative to shaking hands at the peace in church services? It's Hindu, not Christian, but I've always thought it charming and elegant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namaste

Agree though the question is how many church services we will have.

[Nearly Sane]

Given the need to pick teams, cannot see the Olympics going ahead at the current time planned.

[SteveH]

Agree though the question is how many church services we will have.

As long as pubs and restaurants are still open, I don't see why churches shouldn't be, with suitable precautions. My church, starting today, is using wafers only at communion ("communion in one kind", officially still valid), using a hand-action instead of shaking hands at the peace, asking people to put their contribution on a plate at the end instead of passing round a bag, not using the tiresome rattly-shaky things they miscall musical instruments (thank heavens), and not having refreshments afterwards. I think that's more than enough precautions.

[SteveH]

Given the need to pick teams, cannot see the Olympics going ahead at the current time planned.

Especially not in Japan, close to China. Maybe postpone it until next year?

[Udayana]

Wondering if there will be any long term effects of this. Might we see less air travel? Will we see labour rights change? Will we see more preparedness and coordination?

I'd be happy even if it only resulted in the Chinese stopped using wild and/or endangered animals for food or in, so-called, traditional Chinese medicine.

[Udayana]

An alternative to shaking hands at the peace in church services? It's Hindu, not Christian, but I've always thought it charming and elegant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namaste

There's also Indian alternatives if you can't find any toilet paper.
 

[SteveH]

There's also Indian alternatives if you can't find any toilet paper.

   

[Nearly Sane]

Just as well I did pop out to see farewell to my local. Shutting at 5pm for foreseeable future.

[Nearly Sane]

As long as pubs and restaurants are still open, I don't see why churches shouldn't be, with suitable precautions. My church, starting today, is using wafers only at communion ("communion in one kind", officially still valid), using a hand-action instead of shaking hands at the peace, asking people to put their contribution on a plate at the end instead of passing round a bag, not using the tiresome rattly-shaky things they miscall musical instruments (thank heavens), and not having refreshments afterwards. I think that's more than enough precautions.

But how long will they remain open, and given the numbers of at risk people who might attend a service, then there is another factor.

[jeremyp]

Of-course that is entirely their own choice.

Do you approve of effectively putting over 70's under house arrest?

Presumably they can rely on private health insurance to cover them if they get ill.

We have the NHS to which they have been contributing all their lives. Why should they rely on private health insurance?

[Gordon]

As regards the policy of all over 70's being routinely restricted at some point, as attributed to Health Secretary for England & Wales, it seems the Scottish Government won't be going down this route.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51898288

[Udayana]

Do you approve of effectively putting over 70's under house arrest?

Of-course not. As I said, what they do is their own choice.
 

We have the NHS to which they have been contributing all their lives. Why should they rely on private health insurance?

The NHS will do their best. But, as each person admitted with covid-19 will occupy a bed for c 15-20 days before recovery or death, they will run out of beds very quickly.

What is in place to avoid what happened in Italy?

[Nearly Sane]

Of-course not. As I said, what they do is their own choice.
 
The NHS will do their best. But, as each person admitted with covid-19 will occupy a bed for c 15-20 days before recovery or death, they will run out of beds very quickly.

What is in place to avoid what happened in Italy?

Buying up beds from the private sector at great cost it would appear.