Coronavirus

[Roses]

I am very sorry to hear that Prince Charles has it.

I phoned the local Town Hall and spoke to someone who gave me the number of a Councillor who has taken on the task of co-ordinating local help group. Left a message and she phoned back. They are getting organised as quicly as possible so that sounds promising.

Hopefully Charlie boy will recover soon, and his Mummy hasn't got it.

[SteveH]

Hopefully Charlie boy will recover soon, and his Mummy hasn't got it.

Given that "corona" means "crown", it seems appropriate that it's reached the royals.

[Nearly Sane]

Swearing just means what we are saying isn't true, so we need some way of emphasizing it to make people believe it.

Swearing doesn't fucking mean that.

[Nearly Sane]

I am very sorry to hear that Prince Charles has it.

I phoned the local Town Hall and spoke to someone who gave me the number of a Councillor who has taken on the task of co-ordinating local help group. Left a message and she phoned back. They are getting organised as quicly as possible so that sounds promising.

He's a disgrace for travelling with it against the general advice, especially having been in contact with people who had been diagnosed with it.

[Gordon]

I see there are a few negative comments coming in, such as this one from the Torygraph journalist, Allison Pearson.

If they can manage to test Prince Charles for “mild symptoms” of Coronavirus they can damn well test nurses, doctors and paramedics on the frontline. No excuse!#COVID19

[ProfessorDavey]

Ideally it would be permanent, but since that would be unrealistic before the New Heavens and Earth, a seventh-year lock down policy might enable the planet's atmosphere to recover, similar to how leaving the ground fallow for a year enables it to.

Or we can develop cleaner technologies that reduce emissions by 14% or more which would have the same or greater effect without massively impacting on our mental/physical health and our economy.

[Nearly Sane]

I see there are a few negative comments coming in, such as this one from the Torygraph journalist, Allison Pearson.

I rarely agree with her - yesterday she posted that she hoped Made In China become a mark of shame from her iPhone - but I do here. The whole not behaving as the proles are expected to, and the privileges of this is part of a deep malaise in this country.

[jeremyp]

I rarely agree with her - yesterday she posted that she hoped Made In China become a mark of shame from her iPhone - but I do here. The whole not behaving as the proles are expected to, and the privileges of this is part of a deep malaise in this country.

I agree he should have behaved the same way as everybody else is expected to behave. It  was a serious PR error. I can't agree with your "deep malaise" characterisation  though.

[jeremyp]

Yesterday's figures are now in

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Bad news for the  UK, unfortunately, there was a significant jump in deaths

Deaths in the UK for the last 5 days: 33, 56, 48 54 87

Hopefully, it should be obvious that deaths lag a bit, so the above is not a reflection of yesterday's lockdown measures or even Friday's closing of pubs etc.

New confirmed infections: 706 1035 665 967 1,427

Italy also seems to have had a slight regression with deaths and new cases increasing slightly.

[Roses]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52036333

Drivers have a six month extension on getting their vehicles MOT'd. Blow it, I got mine done early, which means I will have to pay my car tax by April 18th instead of April 28th!

[wigginhall]

Hopeful noises from Neil Ferguson (Imperial College), and Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer, that the UK bulge will be flattened,  "The peak of it will be pushed forward and the height lower ", hence manageable by NHS.  Harries is on Mumsnet, and Ferguson in Times and BBC.

[Udayana]

One thing I don't understand is the difference between the advice given by the WHO, which is to take stringent measures to tackle the virus and also to test, test, test; and the advice given by some national health agencies. In Sweden they still haven't advised the government to close pubs and bars or schools, and public gatherings are only limited to 500 people. As for testing, same here in Finland as well, they've set the bar too high. Have they fallen for that herd immunity stuff? People are going to die!

Article on Swedish approach to the epidemic ( FT but free to read):

https://www.ft.com/content/31de03b8-6dbc-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Which is surprising, not the test and track containment I had assumed before. Maybe the Swedish are just more sensible without needing to be ordered about?

[Udayana]

Hopeful noises from Neil Ferguson (Imperial College), and Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer, that the UK bulge will be flattened,  "The peak of it will be pushed forward and the height lower ", hence manageable by NHS.  Harries is on Mumsnet, and Ferguson in Times and BBC.

The big caveat is that it requires the current measures to be followed by most of the population. Of-course if they do, and the NHS manages to work through this, the usual crowd will go on about how it was all unnecessary and a big hoax and they want more compensation.
 
 

[Udayana]

Yesterday's figures are now in

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Bad news for the  UK, unfortunately, there was a significant jump in deaths

Deaths in the UK for the last 5 days: 33, 56, 48 54 87

Hopefully, it should be obvious that deaths lag a bit, so the above is not a reflection of yesterday's lockdown measures or even Friday's closing of pubs etc.

New confirmed infections: 706 1035 665 967 1,427

Italy also seems to have had a slight regression with deaths and new cases increasing slightly.

The death figures will lag about 2 weeks behind the 'cases' figures. But you can't just pin hopes on daily figures. The 87 deaths yesterday are not 'significant', just a few people died who would have otherwise died the previous day or today. You would get more from the doubling time figures, but they don't change very fast.

[jeremyp]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52036333

Drivers have a six month extension on getting their vehicles MOT'd. Blow it, I got mine done early, which means I will have to pay my car tax by April 18th instead of April 28th!

I'm really not at all happy that there could be cars driving around that have not had a proper safety inspection for 18 months. I would  argue for MoT testing to be an essential service.

[jeremyp]

The death figures will lag about 2 weeks behind the 'cases' figures. But you can't just pin hopes on daily figures.

There's no other way to check on how we are doing.

The 87 deaths yesterday are not 'significant', just a few people died who would have otherwise died the previous day or today. You would get more from the doubling time figures, but they don't change very fast.

That's why I quote five days because it gives a better idea of a trend. Doubling time pretty much assumes that growth is exponential - for instance, talking about a doubling time for China (39 days as of today). However, that is misleading because China's deaths are not growing exponentially. In fact new deaths per day are not growing at all.

[Udayana]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting article but always easier in hindsight:

As we said, when one deals with deep uncertainty, both governance and precaution require us to hedge for the worst. While risk-taking is a business that is left to individuals, collective safety and systemic risk are the business of the state. Failing that mandate of prudence by gambling with the lives of citizens is a professional wrongdoing that extends beyond academic mistake; it is a violation of the ethics of governing.

The obvious policy left now is a lockdown, with overactive testing and contact tracing: follow the evidence from China and South Korea rather than thousands of error-prone computer codes. So we have wasted weeks, and ones that matter with a multiplicative threat.

[ad_orientem]

Article on Swedish approach to the epidemic ( FT but free to read):

https://www.ft.com/content/31de03b8-6dbc-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Which is surprising, not the test and track containment I had assumed before. Maybe the Swedish are just more sensible without needing to be ordered about?

Thanks for the link. I suppose only time will tell if their strategy works (or any other country's, for that matter).

[wigginhall]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting article but always easier in hindsight:

Taleb has been attacking the mitigation approach from the beginning.  He has several threads on Twitter, maths is a bit beyond me.  Author of the Black Swan.

[Nearly Sane]

Quite incredible

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-challenge-moron-who-licked-21749466.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true

[ippy]

Hopefully Charlie boy will recover soon, and his Mummy hasn't got it.

I see big ears has the dreaded virus the even bigger worry is, if his infection did start to take for the worse I hope the authorities can find a bed for him.

I don't wish him ill but I find the whole principle of hereditary inanely mindless and stupid, we might just as well have 'hereditary mathematicians', (Thomas Paine), it'd certainly make as much sense as the present arrangement.

No doubt the media wont know how to stop when they've already said enough about Charlie boy, more blasted royalist soap.

ippy

[jeremyp]

Quite incredible

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-challenge-moron-who-licked-21749466.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true

Yes, well I think Piers Morgan  branding him as scum is a bit unfair. "unbelievably stupid" yes, fair enough. I'd  like reserve the word  "scum" for people like...

... well, like Piers Morgan.

[jeremyp]

I see big ears has the dreaded virus the even bigger worry is, if his infection did start to take for the worse I hope the authorities can find a bed for him.

I don't wish him ill

Yeah, you do. You're crowing about it and you are insulting him by making fun of a physical imperfection.

but I find the whole principle of hereditary inanely mindless and stupid

And I find  the whole little Englander ethos of the  Brexiteers inanely mindless and  stupid.

we might just as well have 'hereditary mathematicians',

No. Being a mathematician requires a  level of mental skill. Being the constitutional head of state requires no skill whatsoever.

No doubt the media wont know how to stop when they've already said enough about Charlie boy, more blasted royalist soap.

People like this sort of thing. Even you. And don't tell me you didn't enjoy writing your post.

[Udayana]

Taleb has been attacking the mitigation approach from the beginning.  He has several threads on Twitter, maths is a bit beyond me.  Author of the Black Swan.

Black Swan was great and he is fun on twitter. Looking forward to searching out and tackling his maths ... once my own mathematical knowledge is developed enough and I have time.

His writing is quite contrarian or "roguish" so I'm never quite sure if it is all a facade or he has some true mathematical insights.
 
btw. some commentators have described the arrival of covid-19 as a "black swan" event, but I don't think it is - we should have planned for something like this and did have plenty of warnings.
 

[ippy]

Yeah, you do. You're crowing about it and you are insulting him by making fun of a physical imperfection.
And I find  the whole little Englander ethos of the  Brexiteers inanely mindless and  stupid.
No. Being a mathematician requires a  level of mental skill. Being the constitutional head of state requires no skill whatsoever.

People like this sort of thing. Even you. And don't tell me you didn't enjoy writing your post.

Have a good day j p, what's left of it. Regards, ippy.