Coronavirus

[Walter]

It doesn't exist. We aren't recording that information. Some people who had coronavirus might have died anyway but they are being counted. There are probably also people who died of coronavirus but who aren't being counted because they weren't known to have coronavirus at the time.

However, it's the only half way reliable statistic we have got even though it lags the situation by two to three weeks.

For example, the number of new cases reported each day is constrained by our woeful lack of testing  capacity - it's a Chernobyl geiger counter problem. I am really frustrated by the fact that we are not doing randomised testing in any sense. The government simply doesn't know the extent of the epidemic in this country. It seems obvious to me that they should be trying to find out.

thanks old chap

I would guess a rough calculation would be to compare the normal monthly death rate with the present death rate (after enough time has passed) figures from the ONS and make a judgement 

[Walter]

And yet Germany manage to do 500,000 tests a week. Stop letting the government off the hook. They reacted too late, thought they could bluff and bluster Boris style their way through a pandemic. They are negligent. And I would argue wilfully so.

Trent

if Boris himself came up with a cure for ALL ills you would still find something to criticise him for

[Roses]

And yet Germany manage to do 500,000 tests a week. Stop letting the government off the hook. They reacted too late, thought they could bluff and bluster Boris style their way through a pandemic. They are negligent. And I would argue wilfully so.

I get the impression you are not in love with Boris.

[Nearly Sane]

Trent

if Boris himself came up with a cure for ALL ills you would still find something to criticise him for

Get your tongue out of Johnson's arse

[Aruntraveller]

Trent

if Boris himself came up with a cure for ALL ills you would still find something to criticise him for

Nonsense. He's had some brilliant ideas. That garden bridge thing - that was a beauty.

[Nearly Sane]

I get the impression you are not in love with Boris.

Why would anyone be in love with an incompetent racist lying thug? The incompetence shown by the govt means people will die who didn't have to. They didn't plan, they didn't react fast enough, front line medical staff have been endangered by their failures.

[jeremyp]

Medical staff do the testing and they can't be in two places at once, when they are looking after the sick. No doubt lay people could be trained to do it, but that takes time.

We don’t have to test everybody to get an idea of the prevalence of coronavirus in our country, only a randomized sample.

The current testing strategy suggests that the government doesn’t want to know how many people have got it.

[SteveH]

I can see that the lockdown flattens the curve, so that the NHS doesn't get too many cases at once, and tons of people are just given morphine and left to die.   But what happens after that?   We can't keep a lockdown for a year.   Of course, there is the hunt for a vaccine and anti-virals.  I don't think the bugger is going to just go away.

I think they're hoping to gradually ease the restrictions, starting in a week or two. I suppose as more and more people get it and become immune, there's a smaller and smaller pool of potential victims, so the epidemic will naturally gradually ease off. It seems to be doing so in China.

[Walter]

Get your tongue out of Johnson's arse

saney

we've been here before 

and just to be clear, i despise politicians of all colours

[Nearly Sane]

saney

we've been here before 

and just to be clear, i despise politicians of all colours

And your approach simply enables ineptitude and failure. There's fuck all point in clapping the NHS if you don't try and make it better by holding to account those who are failing it.

[Roses]

We don’t have to test everybody to get an idea of the prevalence of coronavirus in our country, only a randomized sample.

The current testing strategy suggests that the government doesn’t want to know how many people have got it.

I doubt that is true.

[Nearly Sane]

I doubt that is true.

Then they are simply making it worse by their utter incompetence.

[Roses]

Then they are simply making it worse by their utter incompetence.

I wonder if other countries are really handling it any better?

[jeremyp]

I wonder if other countries are really handling it any better?

South Korea for one. They did it with a really comprehensive testing programme.

And as I noted  above, the UK is worse hit than the USA on a per capita basis. Think about that: our government has a worse record than the Trump administration.

[Walter]

And your approach simply enables ineptitude and failure. There's fuck all point in clapping the NHS if you don't try and make it better by holding to account those who are failing it.

and your fucking whining and whimpering on a MESSAGE BOARD is really helpful is it?


If i were you I'd send the government a strong letter with a list of solutions but don't sign it with a kiss , that will show them how angry you are 

[Nearly Sane]

and your fucking whining and whimpering on a MESSAGE BOARD is really helpful is it?


If i were you I'd send the government a strong letter with a list of solutions but don't sign it with a kiss , that will show them how angry you are

You need a new act. This one is threadbare.

[Nearly Sane]

I wonder if other countries are really handling it any better?

Well we could be participating in the EU purchasing but we aren't because they decided not to because of dogma and then lied about it being due to a missed email. Why did they say there was no shortage of PPE when medical staff were making it clear there was? Why when they had modelled what was needed ib 2016, did they not follow through with the recommendations?

[Walter]

You need a new act. This one is threadbare.

to be fair , i think we all do

I'm becoming overloaded , I'm off for a walk now , maybe return with a better frame of mind !

[Nearly Sane]

to be fair , i think we all do

I'm becoming overloaded , I'm off for a walk now , maybe return with a better frame of mind !

Ok, take care.

[Walter]

Well we could be participating in the EU purchasing but we aren't because they decided not to because of dogma and then lied about it being due to a missed email. Why did they say there was no shortage of PPE when medical staff were making it clear there was? Why when they had modelled what was needed ib 2016, did they not follow through with the recommendations?

https://youtu.be/DDTvLldOgZs

[Udayana]

I think they're hoping to gradually ease the restrictions, starting in a week or two. I suppose as more and more people get it and become immune, there's a smaller and smaller pool of potential victims, so the epidemic will naturally gradually ease off. It seems to be doing so in China.

That is essentially the herd immunity idea, but it is not what is happening in China. If it were spreading at a fast enough rate for immunity to be widespread now, infection and death figures would most likely still be soaring.

Also, remember that although the figures are for "China" really we talking about Hubei/Wuhan - most of China has been spared the full impact due to lockdown.
 

[Nearly Sane]

Another 6.6 million filed for unemployment in the U S this week. Last week's 3.3 M had been a record, the previous record was 695,000 in 1982.

[Udayana]

Then they are simply making it worse by their utter incompetence.

It is a nice idea but too expensive/impractical to give useful results - especially given our limited test capacity.

Also, though most models treat the epidemic as a stochastic process, in reality infections and contacts don't pop up randomly but exist within networks. So the sampling would need a quite sophisticated design, relying on information we probably don't have to hand. 

ETA: There is an app available in which anyone/everyone can record their symptoms or non-symptoms daily. If everyone used that then we could start to move towards a good idea of how many people were infected with symptoms. Without symptoms is still a problem.
 

 

[Roses]

A further 569 patients died with coronavirus in UK hospitals.

[Harrowby Hall]

There is an app available in which anyone/everyone can record their symptoms or non-symptoms daily. If everyone used that then we could start to move towards a good idea of how many people were infected with symptoms. Without symptoms is still a problem.

www.joinzoe.com

Thank you for reminding me to submit my daily report.