Coronavirus

[SteveH]

What's interesting here is that the graphs of increased numbers over time are straight lines: if the rate increases exponentially, as you'd expect, it ought to be a convex curve, becoming increasingly steep.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52133054

[jeremyp]

What's interesting here is that the graphs of increased numbers over time are straight lines: if the rate increases exponentially, as you'd expect, it ought to be a convex curve, becoming increasingly steep.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52133054

The scale on the y axis is logarithmic. A straight line (non horizontal) means an exponential rise.

[ProfessorDavey]

What's interesting here is that the graphs of increased numbers over time are straight lines: if the rate increases exponentially, as you'd expect, it ought to be a convex curve, becoming increasingly steep.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52133054

Err - that's because it is a log-scale on the y-axis - hence an exponential increase appears as a straight line.

Just look at the numbers - there are equal scale lengths between 1-10, 10-100 and 100-1000

[SteveH]

The scale on the y axis is logarithmic. A straight line (non horizontal) means an exponential rise.

I take it you mean the vertical axis: yes, I see what you mean.

[ProfessorDavey]

I take it you mean the vertical axis: yes, I see what you mean.

Yes - the vertical axis is called the y-axis, the horizontal one being the x-axis.

As a scientist I've been a bit frustrated with the presentation of data and not being clear what it means - this is perhaps the most obvious example. I think a lot of people will look at a log graph and see a straight line or even a flattening and think things are stable or even improving. But the straight line stability in a log graph simply means that cases (or deaths) are continuing to double in the same number of days.

The media need to be better at explaining this I think.

[jeremyp]

As a scientist I've been a bit frustrated with the presentation of data and not being clear what it means

I completely agree with this point and it's beginning to wind me up. Watching the BBC last night they presented a number of graphs all with logarithmic scales and didn't point that out a single time. For example, they showed the "number of deaths since the first recorded death" graph. If you compared the UK's line with Spain, they looked similar with the UK just slightly below. However, the scale was logarithmic and the gap between zero and UK deaths represented the same number of people as the gap between the UK and Spain. i.e. Spain has twice as many deaths as the UK at the moment.

[Roses]

Michael Gove is self-isolating as a member of his family has the virus.

[ad_orientem]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is a site I've used to kerp track of what's happening globally and by country. They have both linear and logarithmic scales. To be honest, I don't know what either of them really mean, but some might find it interesting.

[Nearly Sane]

There are a lot of employers who are currently pledging to keep employees on until around August. Even if we are out of it by then, there will be a lot of employees who will lose their jobs in those firms in the following 3 months. This is going to be absolutely brutal and the govts are probably just being very careful not to mention this.

[ad_orientem]

There are a lot of employers who are currently pledging to keep employees on until around August. Even if we are out of it by then, there will be a lot of employees who will lose their jobs in those firms in the following 3 months. This is going to be absolutely brutal and the govts are probably just being very careful not to mention this.

The economic consequences will be felt for years.

[Nearly Sane]

The economic consequences will be felt for years.

The question is whether it leads to some seismic change in economic systems. We are in uncharted territory.

[ad_orientem]

The question is whether it leads to some seismic change in economic systems. We are in uncharted territory.

Indeed. If any sense is to some of this, then a fairer system has to arise. One where workers rights are more protected and where third world debt is forgiven. The economic impact will go much deeper than that too.

[Nearly Sane]

Indeed. If any sense is to some of this, then a fairer system has to arise. One where workers rights are more protected and where third world debt is forgiven. The economic impact will go much deeper than that too.

My fear is that it will go the opposite way. We will pull up the idea of global responsibility and greatly harm the third world.

[ad_orientem]

My fear is that it will go the opposite way. We will pull up the idea of global responsibility and greatly harm the third world.

Hopefully not. It's in the interests of the first world that the third world develops, in my opinion. Mutual benefit. Another good thing I hope might come of this is an end to austerity as the only means of reviving the economy. Borrowing and the public sector isn't always bad.

[Aruntraveller]

Only read this if you are feeling resilient:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

And even though he is ill and I wish him a full recovery, I hope no-one forgets that he was the PM that flirted with the idea of herd immunity derived from mass infection.

[jeremyp]

Only read this if you are feeling resilient:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

And even though he is ill and I wish him a full recovery, I hope no-one forgets that he was the PM that flirted with the idea of herd immunity derived from mass infection.

I think it’s nonsense. Looking at the current death trends, we are well under Spain, for example and the death rate increase is already not exponential.

The study is based on a steep climb early on, but since then the trend had not continued and we are unlikely to get into the position of the health services being completely overwhelmed as they were in Italy and Spain.

[ad_orientem]

How anyone can take David Icke seriously, I'll never know.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52198946

[Roses]

Icke is totally bonkers, sadly he takes in the gullible.

[Nearly Sane]

Marina Hyde in restrained but excellent form.

https://t.co/6esfQPFBfs?fbclid=IwAR10kVrQCOXU0gMWv5v0HpZZUPzjL8-frlnRBy3g4uhx1VUhiqgcazBKPpg

[SteveH]

Marina Hyde in restrained but excellent form.

https://t.co/6esfQPFBfs?fbclid=IwAR10kVrQCOXU0gMWv5v0HpZZUPzjL8-frlnRBy3g4uhx1VUhiqgcazBKPpg

Excellent as usual. I've long felt myself that the military metaphors with regard ro cancer are not helpful: no-one ever just "has" cancer; they're always "battling" or "fighting" it, which is especially inappropriate, as she says, when all you can do is obey the doctors: if that's battling, it is curiously passive.

[jeremyp]

Marina Hyde in restrained but excellent form.

https://t.co/6esfQPFBfs?fbclid=IwAR10kVrQCOXU0gMWv5v0HpZZUPzjL8-frlnRBy3g4uhx1VUhiqgcazBKPpg

I absolutely hate the way people characterise crises as wars. The "war on terror" was a mistake the "war on drugs" is a  mistake. The "war on coronavirus is a mistake".

If you describe a problem as a nail, everybody brings hammers.

[wigginhall]

Only read this if you are feeling resilient:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

And even though he is ill and I wish him a full recovery, I hope no-one forgets that he was the PM that flirted with the idea of herd immunity derived from mass infection.

Yes, that was about to curdle the breakfast milk, but the graph printed shows deaths climbing very soon to 1500 and then 2000 daily, so I guess we will find out.   The govt did fanny around at first, and got sucked into herd immunity, until the Imperial College predictions shocked everyone, plus Italy.

[Nearly Sane]

This gets it right for me on the idea of clapping for Johnson

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1247777868261634048.html

[Nearly Sane]

I absolutely hate the way people characterise crises as wars. The "war on terror" was a mistake the "war on drugs" is a  mistake. The "war on coronavirus is a mistake".

If you describe a problem as a nail, everybody brings hammers.

Agree, it also tends to crowd out ideas as it dictates a siege mentality and leads to group think as the alternatives are seen as being divisive.

[Nearly Sane]

And another good article


https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/there-is-nothing-tough-about-beating-coronavirus/amp?__twitter_impression=true