Coronavirus

[Nearly Sane]

https://t.co/YPPhk6f4ms

Scary estimate by FT of 41 000 deaths in UK, many outside hospital.   Let's hope this is inaccurate.

It seems logically argued for.

[jeremyp]

https://t.co/YPPhk6f4ms

Scary estimate by FT of 41 000 deaths in UK, many outside hospital.   Let's hope this is inaccurate.

Yes but it's not based on anything. It's based on extrapolating the total excess deaths between mid March and April 10th to today in a straight line. They don't give any justification for doing that.

[Nearly Sane]

Yes but it's not based on anything. It's based on extrapolating the total excess deaths between mid March and April 10th to today in a straight line. They don't give any justification for doing that.

There's some more detail here

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1252841436317315072.html

[jeremyp]

There's some more detail here

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1252841436317315072.html

It's assumption 3 that I am sceptical about. The "stable pattern" could change over time. For example, there are probably excess deaths caused by people being unable to get the treatment they need due to hospital capacity being overloaded. As the Nightingale hospitals come on line and the peak of people in hospital seems to have been passed, the number of people unable to get the treatment they need should decrease.

[Udayana]

There's some more detail here

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1252841436317315072.html

Seems like a reasonable approach.

[Udayana]

It's assumption 3 that I am sceptical about. The "stable pattern" could change over time. For example, there are probably excess deaths caused by people being unable to get the treatment they need due to hospital capacity being overloaded. As the Nightingale hospitals come on line and the peak of people in hospital seems to have been passed, the number of people unable to get the treatment they need should decrease.

Is there any evidence of the capacity being overloaded and people being unable to get treatment? In general the lock down measures have suppressed covid infections so that they have not - the Nightingale hospitals have been little used (just as well if they can't be staffed).

There is evidence of people not presenting at hospital due to fear of infection.
 

[Udayana]

Anyone else read the Tony Blair strategy document?

Linked from:

https://institute.global/policy/sustainable-exit-strategy-managing-uncertainty-minimising-harm

Seems a reasonable plan, well set out. Shame that no-one listens to anything TB says nowadays - but why can't the gov. just explain how they are going to go about doing anything?

[wigginhall]

Anyone else read the Tony Blair strategy document?

Linked from:

https://institute.global/policy/sustainable-exit-strategy-managing-uncertainty-minimising-harm

Seems a reasonable plan, well set out. Shame that no-one listens to anything TB says nowadays - but why can't the gov. just explain how they are going to go about doing anything?

I thought that the govt are nervous in case people realize that the only way out is either a vaccine, or relentless test and trace.  The first is a long way off, and the second is beyond the capacity of this government.  I guess they will hope that a partial unlock will work, but 500 fresh cases can easily multiply to 10 000, such is the relentless nature of exponential growth.

[jeremyp]

Is there any evidence of the capacity being overloaded and people being unable to get treatment? In general the lock down measures have suppressed covid infections so that they have not - the Nightingale hospitals have been little used (just as well if they can't be staffed).

There is evidence of people not presenting at hospital due to fear of infection.

In the latest report from the ONS there were approximately 10,000 excess deaths of which about 6,000 were connected to coronavirus i.e. had coronavirus mentioned on the death certificate. So 4,000 people extra died without apparently having coronavirus. Why? Well we don't know. But if we don't know what the cause is, is it reasonable to extrapolate that the proportion will remain the same? Maybe but maybe not. It's not as if the environment hasn't changed.

You just have to take these predictions with a pinch of salt, that is all.

[jeremyp]

but why can't the gov. just explain how they are going to go about doing anything?

Because they don't know. Following the turkey PPE fiasco, I am of the opinion that they are running around like headless chickens and the most concerted effort is going into putting a brave face on for the public.

[Nearly Sane]

Marina Hyde on Richard Branson. The first paragraph is excellent


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/21/richard-branson-bailout?fbclid=IwAR0IkoGJ7dO8uf_Va3y2aH9NFM3nC4OZsEd7oaD-efENOjF-uJaeP_C885o

[Roses]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52378845

A second wave of the coronavirus in the US could be much worse than the first, apparently they have already had 800,000 cases in that country.

[Nearly Sane]

My friend has been off the ventilator for 24 hours and manged to sit on a chair for a short time. They are talking about her being moved out from the ITU into the High Dependency Unit in a few days!!!

[Roses]

My friend has been off the ventilator for 24 hours and manged to sit on a chair for a short time. They are talking about her being moved out from the ITU into the High Dependency Unit in a few days!!!

Very good news.

[jeremyp]

My friend has been off the ventilator for 24 hours and manged to sit on a chair for a short time. They are talking about her being moved out from the ITU into the High Dependency Unit in a few days!!!

Brilliant news. We need it right now.

[ad_orientem]

My friend has been off the ventilator for 24 hours and manged to sit on a chair for a short time. They are talking about her being moved out from the ITU into the High Dependency Unit in a few days!!!

Excellent!😊

[Enki]

Hope all goes well, NS.

[Nearly Sane]

Hope all goes well, NS.

Thanks. It's going to be a long slow road.

[flower girl]

My friend has been off the ventilator for 24 hours and manged to sit on a chair for a short time. They are talking about her being moved out from the ITU into the High Dependency Unit in a few days!!!

This is very good news. Hoping for a complete recovery.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52378845

A second wave of the coronavirus in the US could be much worse than the first, apparently they have already had 800,000 cases in that country.

I think this has mainly to do with predictions.  All the Conservatives under Trump's lead are pushing to go back to normal while disregarding all the evidence that indicates doing so as they hope to will cause a second wave of cases that could be worse than the first. One thing's for sure: Governor Cuomo of New York is not willing to do that, and Trump doesn't like that!

[Nearly Sane]

Book about lockdown because of a virus that was rejected for being too ridiculous is published


https://www.scotsman.com/news/people/scottish-authors-novel-lockdown-rejected-being-ridiculous-published-2543181?fbclid=IwAR1wsc1GTY5OIJnHijork6gAnsYlLPo8RkkAst3ULv1qvurWTK1l9dl6GKQ

[SteveH]

'Scotsman' article from yesterday about how long lockdown is likely to last ("most new" instead of "newest": is that a scotticism?)  https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/when-will-coronavirus-end-how-long-covid-19-restrictions-are-expected-last-uk-2481849

[Roses]

When the lock down is eventually eased it should be businesses that are important, which are opened first, the leisure industry can wait, imo. A second round of Covid-19 could be even worse than the first, which is bad enough.

[SteveH]

Businesses that are important are already open. Pubs are important morale-boosters.

[Roses]

Businesses that are important are already open. Pubs are important morale-boosters.

Pubs are one of the least important places, which should be opened anytime soon, people drink far too much, imo.

[SteveH]

Pubs are one of the least important places, which should be opened anytime soon, people drink far too much, imo.

You are the ultimate solipsist. anything you dislike or disapprove of ought to be banned, or at the very least doesn't matter, and objective arguments have no impact on you.