Coronavirus

[Nearly Sane]

My wife and I have clapped every Thursday. Our reasons are quite simple. In this extraordinary situation we feel we needed to come together to support all the frontline workers and especially the NHS workers in our small way. We also felt that these weekly claps were a unifying influence for people of all ages and hopefully strengthened the resolve of the whole community to be continually aware and observe the lockdown as much as possible. We do however accept that it is entirely appropriate that this response is starting to outlive its usefulness and probably needs to finish sometime soon.

My wife worked all her working life as a nurse in the NHS, one of our sons is a firefighter and one of our grandaughters works as a carer, but we all feel that at such an extraordinary time as this any criticisms we may have of the NHS(e.g. the Mid Staffordhire debacle, the NHS's almost indiscriminate wastage, the way Bevan bought the consultants' backing by 'stuffing their mouths with gold', the graduate entry only policy of the RCN or the horrendously expensive and failed National IT system, and many more) are not forgotten but put on the back burner because the human values of the selflessness, heroic dedication and bloody hard work of the key workers are the things that are uppermost in our minds at the moment.

Constructive criticism of the present government and how they are handling this crisis is certainly ok by us. We have plenty of criticisms ourselves, just as we had of all sorts of Health Ministers and Prime Ministers from both parties, especially from Thatcher onwards, and not just Tory ones. However when I read these articles by John Crace(as suggested by Gordon), with their criticism cocooned in a veneer of sneering personal insults, it just turns me off completely. In my opinion such journalism is generally counterproductive although, no doubt, personally satisfying to some.

I didn't vote Tory at the last election by the way. In fact I've never voted Tory in my life.

I really like your posts but there is a tone here where you suggest that your position is representative of this involved in the NHS and front line agree and that is just not true. I get bored of the idea that insults here based on incompetence, lying, and idiocy are bad. And I think the poisoning of the well by saying any such 'insults' are bad gives succour to that incompetence, lying and idiocy. Clap as much as you like but at least realise that you are being used.

[Nearly Sane]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52779356

Please, please let this mean he will be forced to resign.

He has parents? I always thought he was from the Mekon.

[Nearly Sane]

Reading back, I've just come across this, NS.  Great news.

It is but for those eejits thinking Covid 19 isn't real, the current prognosis for her to be 'ok' is 12 months minimum.

[Gordon]

Well I'm quite happy for John Crace, or indeed anyone else for that matter, to sneer, lampoon, ridicule or whatever this particular Tory government since that is, for me, the only reasonable response to a crew consisting of Johnson, Raab, Patel et al: let us not forget that the madness of Brexit is down to them, and that clock is quietly ticking away in the background. My elder daughter, who is a nurse, holds a similar view.

They have no saving graces in my book. 

[Nearly Sane]

Of course

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk-pm-johnsons-close-aide-cummings-broke-lockdown-rules-newspapers/ar-BB14tsuH

[SteveH]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-scientist-quicker-exit-lockdown-072039855.html

[Roses]

Of course

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk-pm-johnsons-close-aide-cummings-broke-lockdown-rules-newspapers/ar-BB14tsuH

Not only should Cummings be sacked, he should be prosecuted for breaking the rules. He could have put the lives of others in danger, presumably he would have had to stop at the service stations, once or twice, for toilet breaks and petrol.

[ad_orientem]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-scientist-quicker-exit-lockdown-072039855.html

Given the preliminary antibody test results from across Europe, it seems highly unlikely that 50% of the UK contracted the virus. Even in Spain, one of the worst affected countries, results suggest that only about 5% had the virus.

[ad_orientem]

I've been following the John's Hopkins data and have seen quite an increase in the UK numbers of cases and deaths.  Yesterday, I watched a PBS Frontline documentary on one Italian hospital and one of their doctors. It was very well done and showed how quickly they struggled with lack of capacity.  I wondered if you all there are experiencing anything like that.  We almost did in NYCity (I have one son who lives on Manhattan.) But, the governor there ordered temporary hospitals built, and they built quite a few!

On the Florida front, I was following the data out of our Department of Health, when I noticed a huge spike in the influenza/pneumonia deaths at the end of April (as the season usually is significantly ebbing.)  Right after that, the governor ordered that the pneumonia numbers be taken out of the tally.  That, and reports from hospitals and coroners that the governor is pressuring them to not report the numbers of COVID19 deaths has me concerned.  The deliberate deception seems criminal to me.

I don't know that much about the situation in the UK with regards to capacity, flu etc. In Finland the situation is good but then we had an advantage in that the virus arrived here a couple of weeks after many other parts of Europe. We've stayed well under capacity and deaths have remained low. At the start of all this, fearing the worst, all non-essential hospital procedures were cancelled. Now we have the problem that many hospital staff have no patients and are now trying to encourage people to see their doctors and go to hospital when they need to. A couple of hospitals built temporary structures, again fearing the worst, but in the end they were nowhere near being needed and have already been dismantled.

[SteveH]

Given the preliminary antibody test results from across Europe, it seems highly unlikely that 50% of the UK contracted the virus. Even in Spain, one of the worst affected countries, results suggest that only about 5% had the virus.

She is an eminent epidemiologist, albeit only one.

[Nearly Sane]

And the American beliefs on conspiracies

https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-spreading-on-the-right-may-hamper-vaccine-efforts-152843610.html

[jeremyp]

That I find your position tedious is not an insult.

It's insulting that you think it is a reasonable response to my point.

[jeremyp]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52779356

Please, please let this mean he will be forced to resign.

The number of people in power who are ostensibly quite intelligent but who have been caught breaking the government's own lockdown restrictions is quite astonishing.

Actually, in this case, he may technically not have broken the rules, but the optics are terrible even if he hasn't.

I doubt he'll resign though. He'll probably insist he didn't break the rules or it was essential travel or something.

[jeremyp]

It is but for those eejits thinking Covid 19 isn't real, the current prognosis for her to be 'ok' is 12 months minimum.

Before you even start considering the lasting effects of COVID19, just being on a ventilator for any long period of time is quite debilitating. Add in the lasting effects of a serious COVID19 infection and the road to recovery is a long one. But at least we can be thankful it is not the alternative.

[jeremyp]

Well I'm quite happy for John Crace, or indeed anyone else for that matter, to sneer, lampoon, ridicule or whatever this particular Tory government since that is, for me, the only reasonable response to a crew consisting of Johnson, Raab, Patel et al: let us not forget that the madness of Brexit is down to them, and that clock is quietly ticking away in the background. My elder daughter, who is a nurse, holds a similar view.

They have no saving graces in my book.

It's not a reasonable response at all. It turns people off who might otherwise have some sympathy for his position. And even if you think it's OK to sneer at Boris because he is a politician and he went into this with his eyes open, it's not OK to sneer at his partner and his child.

It's a bit childish to be honest and we need some adults in the room at this time.

[jeremyp]

Given the preliminary antibody test results from across Europe, it seems highly unlikely that 50% of the UK contracted the virus. Even in Spain, one of the worst affected countries, results suggest that only about 5% had the virus.

The ONS survey doesn't support the 50% figure either. If, at any time in the first two weeks of May 0.25% of the population hd the virus, it seems totally impossible that 50% of the population has already had it.

[ProfessorDavey]

The number of people in power who are ostensibly quite intelligent but who have been caught breaking the government's own lockdown restrictions is quite astonishing.

Actually, in this case, he may technically not have broken the rules, but the optics are terrible even if he hasn't.

I doubt he'll resign though. He'll probably insist he didn't break the rules or it was essential travel or something.

I think he has technically broken the rules many times over by:

1. Failing to self isolate when having symptoms (and I may be wrong but I think having tested positive).
2. By making a non-essential journey (traveling to parents' house isn't an essential journey under the rules even if you might have child-care challenges).
3. Even if we accept the child-care argument - then he broke a further rule as both parents are over 70 and therefore in a vulnerable category and children should not be visiting them.

But there are two fairly obvious additional points. First if you are so unwell that you cannot look after your kids, how are you well enough to drive 300 miles to Durham. Secondly if it was essential for the children to be looked after by someone else, why couldn't they have been picked up and taken there by a friend or relative without symptoms.

This is clearly way worse than the Calderwood and Ferguson cases as neither of them had the virus, but they were both forced to resign having broken the rules. But as someone on another MB pointed out, Cummins will be OK because Boris works for him

[Gordon]

Just seen this on the Guardian Live blog about Michael Rosen - I didn't realise he was ill, and it isn't clear if he had Coronavirus or not. Hopefully he'll recover and get back to his excellent 'Word of Mouth' Podcast (a must if you like words and their use in English).

In more upbeat news, the children’s author Michael Rosen has left intensive care after eight weeks in hospital, and continues his recovery on the ward.

[Udayana]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-scientist-quicker-exit-lockdown-072039855.html

We discussed her study somewhere earlier in the thread as an alternative way of fitting the data at the time. The interview is certainly interesting but:

- When making decisions we need to use a precautionary approach. Without evidence confirming her model we can't rely on any predictions

- Where we have tried to collect evidence - based on antibody tests (which she discounts completely) or other surveys (eg. preliminary ONS stats) the results do not support the model.

- The cases where some timely lockdown did not occur - Wuhan itself, New York, North Italy and subsequent health system crises count against her. 

However:

In the Spanish flu pandemic the second wave turned out to be deadlier than the first wave due to a mutation of the virus. It is plausible that if the first strain had spread wider more people would have been resistant to the second. This virus is relatively stable, but there were about 40 different variations that entered the UK - seems unlikely that we could pin down the exact sequence of events.   

Also, both the flu and covid-19 are deadly because they can provoke a cytokine storm - and we still don't understand the immune system characteristics that result in it overreacting to that extent. There must be genetic or other factors involved - thus allowing for different  progress of the disease in different populations or countries or even people with different infection histories.

[Nearly Sane]

'Hearing rumours that Dominic Cummings only travelled to see family in Durham because he'd been rejected by his family in Oxford and Cambridge.'

[Roses]

'Hearing rumours that Dominic Cummings only travelled to see family in Durham because he'd been rejected by his family in Oxford and Cambridge.'

Where did you hear that?

[Aruntraveller]

Where did you hear that?

It's in the Twittersphere.

Or as I like to think of it the Twattersphere.

[Nearly Sane]

Where did you hear that?

It's a joke.

[Roses]

It's a joke.

?

[Nearly Sane]

?

Durham University students are known for being rejected by Oxford and Cambridge Universities