Coronavirus

[Aruntraveller]

But I think our lockdown has been pretty well observed.

Anecdotally I would disagree.

I can sit at my kitchen window and point to 3 houses where very little observation of the rules has taken place. Of course it could be just this little corner of West Sussex where rules were/are being flouted but I somehow don't think West Sussex is intrinsically anymore lawless than any other part of the UK.

[Nearly Sane]

Anecdotally I would disagree.

I can sit at my kitchen window and point to 3 houses where very little observation of the rules has taken place. Of course it could be just this little corner of West Sussex where rules were/are being flouted but I somehow don't think West Sussex is intrinsically anymore lawless than any other part of the UK.

Plus of course we had Cheltenham before lock down

[Udayana]

Cracking "More or Less" episode this morning.

Also. on the Today programme, Michael Baker discussed actions used in NZ. He thinks a 4 to 6 week strict lockdown, on China/NZ model, can still eliminate the virus in the UK.

European scientists, including SAGE, made the mistake of treating the virus as similar to influenza rather than SARS. 

[Nearly Sane]

Cracking "More or Less" episode this morning.

Also. on the Today programme, Michael Baker discussed actions used in NZ. He thinks a 4 to 6 week strict lockdown, on China/NZ model, can still eliminate the virus in the UK.

European scientists, including SAGE, made the mistake of treating the virus as similar to influenza rather than SARS.

We won't have another lockdown unless there is a second wave

[Udayana]

We won't have another lockdown unless there is a second wave

Well, that would be because of politics.

It is quite possible that we will have a second wave - in which case we will have economic/social damage spread over a year or more.

If we don't have a second wave - same effect: The virus level will come down but not be fully eliminated and the misery will drag on until an efficacious vaccine or treatment is available.

[Nearly Sane]

Well, that would be because of politics.

It is quite possible that we will have a second wave - in which case we will have economic/social damage spread over a year or more.

If we don't have a second wave - same effect: The virus level will come down but not be fully eliminated and the misery will drag on until an efficacious vaccine or treatment is available.

The social and economic damage will already run over a year. There will definitely bea second wave of redundancies in almost all sectors of the economy in the last quarter of this year.

[Udayana]

The social and economic damage will already run over a year. There will definitely bea second wave of redundancies in almost all sectors of the economy in the last quarter of this year.

True, but I was more thinking of how long we would keep digging, rather than when we actually manage to pull ourselves out - which could be up to a decade or more. If we had had a strict early lockdown, it would be ended around now with, likely, a quick economic recovery?

[Nearly Sane]

True, but I was more thinking of how long we would keep digging, rather than when we actually manage to pull ourselves out - which could be up to a decade or more. If we had had a strict early lockdown, it would be ended around now with, likely, a quick economic recovery?

Agree - but as they say, we are where we are. The govt's used up a lot of political capital, and I suspect even if it wanted to have the strict lockdown, couldn't enforce it - particularly with other countries moving out of lockdown

[Aruntraveller]

And this:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/10/uk-economy-likely-to-suffer-worst-covid-19-damage-says-oecd?

What a great time to be cutting ties with a major trading bloc, eh?

[Udayana]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-masks-study/widespread-mask-wearing-could-prevent-covid-19-second-waves-study-shows-idUSKBN23G37V/

“Our analyses support the immediate and universal adoption of face masks by the public,” said Richard Stutt, who co-led the study at Cambridge.

He said combining widespread mask use with social distancing and some lockdown measures, could be “an acceptable way of managing the pandemic and re-opening economic activity” before the development of an effective vaccine against COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the coronavirus.

[Nearly Sane]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-masks-study/widespread-mask-wearing-could-prevent-covid-19-second-waves-study-shows-idUSKBN23G37V/

“Our analyses support the immediate and universal adoption of face masks by the public,” said Richard Stutt, who co-led the study at Cambridge.

He said combining widespread mask use with social distancing and some lockdown measures, could be “an acceptable way of managing the pandemic and re-opening economic activity” before the development of an effective vaccine against COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the coronavirus.

I don't know why mask wearing is not already compulsory. When I go out, i see about 20% of people wearing masks.

[Nearly Sane]

This is just going to get worse. We seem to have managed to get the worst of all possible scenarios on the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52990612

[jeremyp]

I'm not thinking of that, in case you thought I was. I'm more interested in whether lockdown to the extent that it has been imposed was necessary (given the above Japanese stats).
The rules for Israel under Moses were that if someone showed signs and symptoms of a skin disease they were to isolate outside the camp for 7 days, and longer if the symptoms persisted. I can't recall any mention of people without symptoms having to isolate, but I might be wrong.

They were talking about leprosy which everybody in the ancient world was totally paranoid about. COVID 19 is not the same.

[jeremyp]

This is just going to get worse. We seem to have managed to get the worst of all possible scenarios on the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52990612

The thing that surprises me is that we haven't had more collapses of large companies in the hospitality business. I'd have thought a month with no income would be the end of most of our large restaurant chains.

[Nearly Sane]

The thing that surprises me is that we haven't had more collapses of large companies in the hospitality business. I'd have thought a month with no income would be the end of most of our large restaurant chains.

I think due to the furlough scheme and the loan schemes, the govt have kept a lot of people ticking over. I think it's been where the govt have performed best BUT in many ways it's just kicked the can down the road.

[Gordon]

Just saw this in the Guardian blog - I thought the English chief medic had ruled this out.

No 10 confirmed that the two-metre rule could be reduced in England but not other parts of the UK. At PMQs Boris Johnson said it was being kept under review. He is under strong pressure to replace it with a one metre or 1.5 metre rule, which would make it much easier for schools and commercial premises, especially pubs and restaurants, to open in a Covid secure way. “Matters of public health are devolved, so it is a theoretical possibility that the position could be different in different parts of the UK,” the prime minister’s spokesman said.

[Udayana]

Just saw this in the Guardian blog - I thought the English chief medic had ruled this out.

Whitty certainly didn't agree to reducing the 2m rule, but clearly Johnson is under pressure to do so.

I hope you all in Scotland realize how lucky you are to have Devi Shridar as an advisor!

[Aruntraveller]

Just been to do the weekly shop. As most people think 2 metres = 2 feet, can we please not reduce it any further.

[Nearly Sane]

Just been to do the weekly shop. As most people think 2 metres = 2 feet, can we please not reduce it any further.

It's got worse in the last week. And people are not wearing masks.

[Sriram]

Some researchers say that the virus attacks people with different blood groups differently.  People with O group are relatively less susceptible. People with A group are relatively more susceptible. Not sure about other groups. 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2

[Nearly Sane]

And this is obviously world beating

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52995881

[jeremyp]

And this is obviously world beating

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52995881

Well according to the latest ONS figures, only one person in 1,700 has the disease. That means that the average person hardly ever meets anybody with COVID19. Given the technical difficulties and the privacy issues listed in the article, it would be better to scrap the app. I think it's a waste of time.

[Nearly Sane]

Well according to the latest ONS figures, only one person in 1,700 has the disease. That means that the average person hardly ever meets anybody with COVID19. Given the technical difficulties and the privacy issues listed in the article, it would be better to scrap the app. I think it's a waste of time.

Agree - but once again the govt is guilty of overpromising and underthinking.

[jeremyp]

Agree - but once again the govt is guilty of overpromising and underthinking.

They may have over promised, but they didn't under think it. Under thinking would have been rushing it into production without a trial. I think, apart from not managing expectations properly at the beginning of the trial, they've actually behaved quite responsibly for once.

[Nearly Sane]

They may have over promised, but they didn't under think it. Under thinking would have been rushing it into production without a trial. I think, apart from not managing expectations properly at the beginning of the trial, they've actually behaved quite responsibly for once.

There is more than one way to underthink these things - they didn't work with other countries, they wanted their own splash so they didn't think through what impact that might have, The issues with data and a third party supplier were an obvious question so either they underthought that or they decided to just brush it under the carpet, SO if they weren't underthinking they were simply lying.