Author Topic: Coronavirus (Read 248628 times)

jeremyp · « **Reply #2600 on:** June 24, 2020, 01:44:26 PM »

Quote from: Littleroses on June 24, 2020, 12:24:23 PM

I reckon the opening of pubs is reckless as people who drink too much are unlikely to bother about social distancing.

I am not at all happy about the reasoning behind bringing the two metre rule down to one metre. I don't think it's based on the science at all but on pressure from people who want to get back to normal.

Having said that, let's see what the situation is on July 3rd, in a week and a half. If everything trends the way it is now, we will only have a handful of deaths each day, perhaps none at all most days. Then let's reopen the pubs but with the understanding that they might then have to close again, if the incidence of coronavirus starts going up again.

jeremyp · « **Reply #2601 on:** June 24, 2020, 01:51:44 PM »

Quote from: Trentvoyager on June 24, 2020, 12:48:45 PM

I agree. And anecdotally I did the weekly shop this morning at Sainsburys and many more people seem to have ditched any attempt at maintaining 2 metres already.

Even at the height, you couldn't keep two metres away from everybody in Sainsbury's. There really isn't a problem with walking past somebody in the aisle at closer than two metres as long as you don't stop and have a chat.

Think about the statistics. Currently one person in 1,700 picked at random from the UK population has COVID19. That means that, if there are 1,000 people in your supermarket, there is about a 55% chance that not one of them has coronavirus.

flower girl · « **Reply #2602 on:** June 24, 2020, 03:55:41 PM »

Quote from: jeremyp on June 24, 2020, 01:51:44 PM

Even at the height, you couldn't keep two metres away from everybody in Sainsbury's. There really isn't a problem with walking past somebody in the aisle at closer than two metres as long as you don't stop and have a chat.

Our grocery stores have made the aisles one way, which is a good idea. It was difficult to get used to, but once you've been corrected by someone who is annoyed with you, it's easier to remember next time.

Also to your calculation of 55% being virus free, it struck me how here in Florida, when the shutdown started, hardly anyone was infected and we were acting like it was around ever corner. Now, that it actually is around every corner, we're all open. The governor has issued a warning for the bars and full-bar restaurants that they will be shut down if they're caught not following the mask and social distancing recommendations. (Can't imagine how you can do that in a bar setting, which are all designed to pack as many people into a small a space as possible.)

Aruntraveller · « **Reply #2603 on:** June 24, 2020, 04:18:12 PM »

Quote from: jeremyp on June 24, 2020, 01:51:44 PM

Even at the height, you couldn't keep two metres away from everybody in Sainsbury's. There really isn't a problem with walking past somebody in the aisle at closer than two metres as long as you don't stop and have a chat.

Think about the statistics. Currently one person in 1,700 picked at random from the UK population has COVID19. That means that, if there are 1,000 people in your supermarket, there is about a 55% chance that not one of them has coronavirus.

Yes, I know. My point was that any pretence at social distancing seemed to be pretty much gone with some shoppers, so even if I was managing 1 metre b4, I can't now.

Roses · « **Reply #2604 on:** June 24, 2020, 05:29:57 PM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061288

A trial of a UK Covid-19 vaccine is taking place, I hope it is successful.

jeremyp · « **Reply #2605 on:** June 24, 2020, 05:58:08 PM »

Quote from: Trentvoyager on June 24, 2020, 04:18:12 PM

Yes, I know. My point was that any pretence at social distancing seemed to be pretty much gone with some shoppers, so even if I was managing 1 metre b4, I can't now.

Just tell people to back off.

ad_orientem · « **Reply #2606 on:** June 24, 2020, 06:13:08 PM »

Quote from: Littleroses on June 24, 2020, 05:29:57 PM

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061288

A trial of a UK Covid-19 vaccine is taking place, I hope it is successful.

Yes, it would be nice if it could be done quickly.

Aruntraveller · « **Reply #2607 on:** June 24, 2020, 06:36:13 PM »

Quote from: jeremyp on June 24, 2020, 05:58:08 PM

Just tell people to back off.

They don't appear to hear me through my mask! And that's another thing. Masks. Maybe 15% of shoppers wearing them.

(And they're bloody hot in this weather)

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #2608 on:** June 24, 2020, 06:40:21 PM »

Quote from: Trentvoyager on June 24, 2020, 06:36:13 PM

They don't appear to hear me through my mask! And that's another thing. Masks. Maybe 15% of shoppers wearing them.

(And they're bloody hot in this weather)

That seems a high estimate to me. I wouldn't based on my experience put it higher than 10%.

jeremyp · « **Reply #2609 on:** June 24, 2020, 07:33:19 PM »

Quote from: Trentvoyager on June 24, 2020, 06:36:13 PM

They don't appear to hear me through my mask! And that's another thing. Masks. Maybe 15% of shoppers wearing them.

(And they're bloody hot in this weather)

Try coughing then.

jeremyp · « **Reply #2610 on:** June 24, 2020, 07:35:29 PM »

Quote from: Littleroses on June 24, 2020, 05:29:57 PM

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061288

A trial of a UK Covid-19 vaccine is taking place, I hope it is successful.

Just to be clear this is the second Potential vaccine developed in the UK. There are quite a number of others being developed throughout the world. However, there’s no guarantee that any of them will be effective.

flower girl · « **Reply #2611 on:** June 24, 2020, 09:17:17 PM »

Quote from: jeremyp on June 24, 2020, 07:35:29 PM

Just to be clear this is the second Potential vaccine developed in the UK. There are quite a number of others being developed throughout the world. However, there’s no guarantee that any of them will be effective.

Dr Fauci said in an NPR interview that one pharma company has been testing one vaccine. He's read the preliminary report, and he's cautiously optimistic. It's still phase one, but he said the interesting finding here was how the vaccine induced neutralizing antibodies instead of binding antibodies. Neutralizing antibodies block the virus from replicating.

Robbie · « **Reply #2612 on:** June 24, 2020, 09:33:42 PM »

flowergirl said:-

Our grocery stores have made the aisles one way, which is a good idea. It was difficult to get used to, but once you've been corrected by someone who is annoyed with you, it's easier to remember next time.

Also to your calculation of 55% being virus free, it struck me how here in Florida, when the shutdown started, hardly anyone was infected and we were acting like it was around ever corner. Now, that it actually is around every corner, we're all open.
______

Oh fg, this isn't really a humorous subject but your post made me laugh out loud. It's the way you tell it! Keep it up please.

flower girl · « **Reply #2613 on:** June 25, 2020, 12:49:17 AM »

Quote from: Robbie on June 24, 2020, 09:33:42 PM

Oh fg, this isn't really a humorous subject ..

So agree. It really isn't.

Roses · « **Reply #2614 on:** June 25, 2020, 08:32:53 AM »

Quote from: jeremyp on June 24, 2020, 07:35:29 PM

Just to be clear this is the second Potential vaccine developed in the UK. There are quite a number of others being developed throughout the world. However, there’s no guarantee that any of them will be effective.

We shall see, but they appear to be quite hopeful about this one.

jeremyp · « **Reply #2615 on:** June 25, 2020, 09:11:55 AM »

Quote from: Littleroses on June 25, 2020, 08:32:53 AM

We shall see, but they appear to be quite hopeful about this one.

They're hopeful about them all, but there's a long way to go and many uncertainties. Coronaviruses are not rare and have been with us for millennia and nobody has managed to develop a vaccine for one before. It's not even known if catching the virus confers permanent immunity on the survivors.

The main advantage of this latest vaccine is that, if it works, it is really easy to manufacture in bulk, and by "bulk" I mean seven billion doses bulk.

Be hopeful, but don't be surprised if it all comes to nothing.

Roses · « **Reply #2616 on:** June 25, 2020, 10:13:46 AM »

Quote from: jeremyp on June 25, 2020, 09:11:55 AM

They're hopeful about them all, but there's a long way to go and many uncertainties. Coronaviruses are not rare and have been with us for millennia and nobody has managed to develop a vaccine for one before. It's not even known if catching the virus confers permanent immunity on the survivors.

The main advantage of this latest vaccine is that, if it works, it is really easy to manufacture in bulk, and by "bulk" I mean seven billion doses bulk.

Be hopeful, but don't be surprised if it all comes to nothing.

What a little ray of sunshine you are!

Aruntraveller · « **Reply #2617 on:** June 25, 2020, 10:37:14 AM »

Quote from: Littleroses on June 25, 2020, 10:13:46 AM

What a little ray of sunshine you are!

I think Jeremyp is just recognising the reality of the situation. Viruses, particularly coronaviruses are difficult things to control.

In recent history HIV (a different type of virus - retrovirus) has proved so far impossible to develop a vaccine for, we rely on other methods, mainly suppression via medication, of controlling the virus. The same may well be true of Covid 19 in that it becomes a manageable disease, rather than curable.