Coronavirus

[Nearly Sane]

Friend's son is currently working as in a Covid track and trace centre that's just been identified as a cluster of infection for Covid.

[jeremyp]

We pick up many cold viruses each year. Depending on various factors, our immune systems either kill them before succumbing to an infection, or we succumb and get the symptoms before eventually killing it off. So we are frequently developing immunity to coronaviruses, such as the common cold, even if we aren't fully conscious of them. That immunity may be effective against Covid-19, the article said (I didn't read it all).

The reason why we never gain immunity to the common cold is that it is caused by many viruses - mostly rhinoviruses but some coronaviruses - and they mutate quickly so that our antibodies are no longer effective. There's no reason why the COVID19 virus can't mutate in the same way.

[jeremyp]

it's not confusing now in terms of shops but on the 13th when I wrote this it was, with it being up to common sense, or not.

Yes, because it's always confusing to use your common sense. Or perhaps the confusing thing is why the government was appealing to common sense when it is abundantly clear that most people don't have any.

[jeremyp]

I think you are mixing up detailed for complex situations

It's usually details for complex situations that are confusing. I would argue, in this case, that the regulations are unnecessarily complex and difficult enough to remember and follow that many people just won't. They are confusing.

to the confusion about what the 'English' govt was saying about masks in shops on the 13th of July, and indulging in whataboutery.

No. You seemed confused about what the term "confuse" actually means. I was simply providing an example that was actually confusing.

Sorry id that was a bit of a confusing explanation.

[torridon]

The reason why we never gain immunity to the common cold is that it is caused by many viruses - mostly rhinoviruses but some coronaviruses - and they mutate quickly so that our antibodies are no longer effective. There's no reason why the COVID19 virus can't mutate in the same way.

although from what I read Sars-Cov-2 has exhibited a much slower mutation rate than most similar classes of virus.  That's lucky for us, although I guess it is really simply a manifestation of the reality that there is little selection pressure on it to evolve currently.  It must be very happy, finding a massive untapped food source (us) with little or no defence or resistance to it.  It's happy to profit from the temporary power asymmetry while it has the edge on us, but when we start producing vaccines and developing natural immunity it will start evolving much faster thanks to our push back.

[Aruntraveller]

This sounds promising:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53467022

[SusanDoris]

I heard on the radio, and my neighbour next door saw it on TV, our local MP, Sir desmond Swayne, getting very hot under the collar about mask wearing. PersonallyI shall look up his blog in a minute to see what he has to say about it there.
, I am quite happy to wear a mask in shops and will do so as from Wednesday when I go to Tesco. Although Tesco shopping is not the most interesting thing to do, I shall be pleased to be able to do it for the first time since March.

ETA I have read blog. He has received far more pro-mask e-mails thenantis and his own approach isi to wear one, but says he was speaking up - and the only dissenter! - for those who objected to being compelled to wear a mask. Okay, so that seems reasonable and of the 360 plus e-mails he has received since speaking up, the large majority were in favour of masks.

[Udayana]

although from what I read Sars-Cov-2 has exhibited a much slower mutation rate than most similar classes of virus.  That's lucky for us, although I guess it is really simply a manifestation of the reality that there is little selection pressure on it to evolve currently.  It must be very happy, finding a massive untapped food source (us) with little or no defence or resistance to it.  It's happy to profit from the temporary power asymmetry while it has the edge on us, but when we start producing vaccines and developing natural immunity it will start evolving much faster thanks to our push back.

er... shameless anthropomorphizing ! ... I'm shocked

[Udayana]

This sounds promising:
...

Sort of ... but I expect the cost of providing it in sufficient quantities would make it impractical.

[jeremyp]

It must be very happy, finding a massive untapped food source (us) with little or no defence or resistance to it.

That's absolutely not true. We have a vast array of defences against it and they are pretty effective when properly applied. That's why levels of infection are getting quite low in the UK, are almost zero in other parts of Europe and effectively zero in places like New Zealand.

It's happy to profit from the temporary power asymmetry while it has the edge on us, but when we start producing vaccines and developing natural immunity it will start evolving much faster thanks to our push back.

It doesn't have the edge on us, in most parts of the world where it is being taken seriously, we are winning.

An interesting point about evolution: the fact that COVID19 kills or seriously debilitates people is not an evolutionary advantage. A strain of the virus that evolved to be just as infectious as it is now but that did no serious harm to humans would be far more successful because we wouldn't spend so much time and effort trying to stamp it out.

[jeremyp]

Sort of ... but I expect the cost of providing it in sufficient quantities would make it impractical.

Do you have any idea of what the cost of keeping somebody on a ventilator for several weeks is?

[Harrowby Hall]

There seems to be a viewpoint developing among some of us on this forum that viruses behave purposely.

Evolution is an entirely passive process - mutations occur randomly, they are not induced. The majority of mutations probably lead nowhere. Mutations are fortuitous not opportunistic.

[Udayana]

Do you have any idea of what the cost of keeping somebody on a ventilator for several weeks is?

No.

The interferon could be used to keep patients from progressing on to ventilators, but I'm guessing we won't have the ability to produce enough, worldwide, to be able to treat everyone that it could benefit: we would still need social distancing and masks etc - that are needed to prevent people getting ill and reduce the numbers that might be ill enough to need  it or ventilators. 

[jeremyp]

There seems to be a viewpoint developing among some of us on this forum that viruses behave purposely.

I don't think any of the posters here except maybe a few of the creationists ascribe any purpose to evolution or to the virus. It's just that it's quite hard to talk about it without using language that appears to ascribe purpose as a shorthand. For example

A strain of the virus that evolved to be just as infectious as it is now but that did no serious harm to humans would be far more successful because we wouldn't spend so much time and effort trying to stamp it out.

seems to imply that the virus would be purposefully changing to be less lethal to humans. But it just means a random mutation that makes the virus less lethal so that the mutation would spread throughout the population because it is less likely to be on the receiving end of human countermeasures and therefore more likely to replicate.

[jeremyp]

I'm guessing

Agreed, you are.

Although, it's probably quite a good guess because it is unlikely that drugs companies are producing more Interferon beta than we have needed in the past and stock piling it in the hope that a disease will come along that that needs it.

If it is really as effective as the study says (NB it is a small study and it hasn't been peer reviewed yet), we will ramp up production, just like, when we found we needed more ventilators and PPE than normal, we ramped up production.

we would still need social distancing and masks etc - that are needed to prevent people getting ill and reduce the numbers that might be ill enough to need  it or ventilators.

Agreed.

[Spud]

The reason why we never gain immunity to the common cold is that it is caused by many viruses - mostly rhinoviruses but some coronaviruses - and they mutate quickly so that our antibodies are no longer effective. There's no reason why the COVID19 virus can't mutate in the same way.

I was thinking of non-specific defense mechanisms as opposed to acquired immunity (so my phrase 'our immune systems' was misleading). So that would include, for example, saliva, which washes microbes away from the respiratory tract, and the epiglottis, which covers the latter during swallowing; and cilia in the bronchial tree, which waft mucus containing microbes back up. Here's an article detailing the research that suggests T cells may be giving acquired immunity because they have already been exposed to the coronavirus-type of common cold.

[torridon]

I don't think any of the posters here except maybe a few of the creationists ascribe any purpose to evolution or to the virus. It's just that it's quite hard to talk about it without using language that appears to ascribe purpose as a shorthand..

Sometimes using teleological metaphor is an efficient way to get an idea across; of course that assumes the reader understands a metaphor is being used.

[Spud]

Good to see the word 'evolve' being used here in the correct way 

[Udayana]

...
If it is really as effective as the study says (NB it is a small study and it hasn't been peer reviewed yet), we will ramp up production, just like, when we found we needed more ventilators and PPE than normal, we ramped up production.
...

Well, currently it is in demand for treating MS and other auto-immune conditions - but still expensive and hard to obtain.

[jeremyp]

Well, currently it is in demand for treating MS and other auto-immune conditions - but still expensive and hard to obtain.

Yes, because it is not in demand for treating victims of a global pandemic. If it is found to be of benefit, manufacturers will gear up production until there is enough to go round. It may still be expensive, but its use promises to save a lot of money.

[Dicky Underpants]

Sometimes using teleological metaphor is an efficient way to get an idea across; of course that assumes the reader understands a metaphor is being used.

Yes indeed. Dawkins' first book is dependent on this idea.

[Nearly Sane]

The UK's world class response to Covid - interesting  article

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-07-22/british-response-to-covid-19-has-been-world-class?__twitter_impression=true

[Nearly Sane]

Meanwhile Jeff Bezos is having a great virus

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jul/21/jeff-bezos-the-worlds-richest-man-added-10bn-to-his-fortune-in-just-one-day?fbclid=IwAR2sOgJ43PNMRbGcWpNZz-CY1h7jCnJFhrsojeaEt0JvXy-VDPWDmlL4WaQ

[SusanDoris]

Having now seen for myself (in Tesco on Wednesday) how the check-out shields are positioned, I wondered whether companies have had to quickly start making them or whether they were a standard item. A selection of sites came up and I have taken a quick look at a few. It would appear that a side effect of shops having to have such shielding has been an upturn in sales for the companies involved. And well done them!

Next time I go into a shop with one, I shall see if I can 'see' or ask how they are fixed. On wooden counters that would be easy, I suppose, but supermarket check-outs are metal, aren't they.

[Nearly Sane]

6 of 7 postive tests at St Mirren, false positives. Doesn't exactly make the case for being able to base decisions on numbers.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53521306