Coronavirus

[Roses]

cheers Trent, you'll be sick of me again soon enough 

Too true.

[Walter]

Not me. I love old jokes.

Am I a joke to you?

btw , I'm still a boy.

[jeremyp]

That's a carte blanche to just ignore all govt performance as non measurable.

No it isn't. We can still make judgements as long as we take into account all the reasons why our stats might be worse than (as an extreme example) New Zealand.

I think it's abundantly clear to most people that we should have locked down at least a week earlier than we did even without comparing the direct statistics to France or Italy. On the other hand, if we had judged our statistical performance against that of the USA at the end of May, we would have concluded they were doing much better than us. How times have changed.

[jeremyp]

Yes indeed. It was noticeable on this mornings BBC news that great play was being made of 4, I repeat 4 new cases in NZ and the subsequent tightening of lock down there and yet, 1,000 cases new cases in the UK and not a mention.

Because they've had no cases for months. The last time we had four cases it was also big news. It'll be big news again if we go down to zero cases and then have four new ones.

I mean it's not like the Tories haven't been in power for ages and been promising to do something about the migrants crossing the channel for the best part of a decade, but all of a sudden we have Pritti popping up and SKY news flying helicopters and reporters on boats to shout at people on rubber inflatables.

And what about this train crash in Scotland? Clearly it's the government trying to distract us from coronavirus.

Or maybe the news media is allowed to report on things other than coronavirus.

[Nearly Sane]

No it isn't. We can still make judgements as long as we take into account all the reasons why our stats might be worse than (as an extreme example) New Zealand.

I think it's abundantly clear to most people that we should have locked down at least a week earlier than we did even without comparing the direct statistics to France or Italy. On the other hand, if we had judged our statistical performance against that of the USA at the end of May, we would have concluded they were doing much better than us. How times have changed.

So how do you think a country with a high total of deaths by all measures and higher collapse in GDP is doing?

[jeremyp]

So how do you think a country with a high total of deaths by all measures

By all measures? What do you think is a reasonable total for a disease with no known cure, an R₀ of between 3 and 4 and a 1% mortality rate?

and higher collapse in GDP is doing?

Are you really comparing the GDP collapse with the number of people who died? How does that work then?

We stopped the economy for three month and still haven't fully restarted it. A recession on the scale we are having seems to me to be about what we would expect.

[Robbie]

Am I a joke to you?

btw , I'm still a boy.

No ! I always pictured you as big, hairy and cuddly. I wondered where you'd got to, well I hope.

Coronavirus figures up and hard times are here according to Independent.

jp:- A recession on the scale we are having seems to me to be about what we would expect.

Yup.

[Nearly Sane]

No ! I always pictured you as big, hairy and cuddly. I wondered where you'd got to, well I hope.

Coronavirus figures up and hard times are here according to Independent.

jp:- A recession on the scale we are having seems to me to be about what we would expect.

Yup.

The figures are the worst in the G7 currently and the worst in Europe.  And combined with the death rate which is amongst the highest by however you measure it. You really think that is ok?

[Walter]

No ! I always pictured you as big, hairy and cuddly. I wondered where you'd got to, well I hope.

Coronavirus figures up and hard times are here according to Independent.

jp:- A recession on the scale we are having seems to me to be about what we would expect.

Yup.

if you fancy a cuddle let me know. No commitment, I'm a sociopath 

[jeremyp]

The figures are the worst in the G7 currently and the worst in Europe

Well I'm happy for the rest of Europe. Although not really.

You really think that is ok?

Of course it's not OK but it's not OK no matter how badly or not everybody else is affected.

By the way, it's not over yet in other G7 countries and Europe (or here). The USA is only just past its peak and France is seeing a seven day rolling average of 2,000 new infections per day.

[Nearly Sane]

Ooft!


https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/08/why-britain-failed-coronavirus-pandemic/615166/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

[Spud]

Interesting that UK cases of coronavirus are creeping up again, but the death rate has kept going down, so far.

[Aruntraveller]

Interesting that UK cases of coronavirus are creeping up again, but the death rate has kept going down, so far.

Quite promising, it means in part that we are learning how better to deal with the illness caused by the virus. This was always likely to happen. In addition, some of the most vulnerable have already died so not as many vulnerable people for the virus to kill.

[Nearly Sane]

Quite promising, it means in part that we are learning how better to deal with the illness caused by the virus. This was always likely to happen. In addition, some of the most vulnerable have already died so not as many vulnerable people for the virus to kill.

Though an increase in cases would have a time lag to deaths.

[Aruntraveller]

Though an increase in cases would have a time lag to deaths.

It would, and there will almost certainly be an increase in deaths, but our ability to mitigate some of the worst aspects of the virus will lead to fewer deaths than was the case at the beginning of the pandemic.

[Nearly Sane]

It would, and there will almost certainly be an increase in deaths, but our ability to mitigate some of the worst aspects of the virus will lead to fewer deaths than was the case at the beginning of the pandemic.

Yep, there has been a great deal learned

[jeremyp]

Interesting that UK cases of coronavirus are creeping up again, but the death rate has kept going down, so far.

Death rate lags about two weeks behind infections.

Also, the NHS is better at treating the victims than it was at the start.

[jeremyp]

I'm very concerned about what is going on in France at the moment. Infections have crept back up to over 2,000 per day. That concerns me for two reasons:

1.  We are probably going to have to reapply lock down measures in order to stop the same thing happening here.

2. My parents (got back from a three week holiday in Brittany last week) report that everything is more or less back to normal, except for mask wearing everywhere indoors.

The second point implies to me that masks aren't as effective in keeping the R number down as we had all hoped.

[Walter]

Death rate lags about two weeks behind infections.

Also, the NHS is better at treating the victims than it was at the start.

I reckon it's a measurement/recording issue

[jeremyp]

I reckon it's a measurement/recording issue

Why?

[Walter]

Why?

I'm not convinced that we the public are fully informed of the criteria used in measuring ,recording ,reporting of deaths caused solely by covid  or when and if the govmt change the criteria for whatever reason . Unless you are privy to the raw scientific data jeremy, (which you might be for all I know). To me the figures are just a guide so I don't read too much into it any more

[jeremyp]

I'm not convinced that we the public are fully informed of the criteria used in measuring ,recording ,reporting of deaths caused solely by covid  or when and if the govmt change the criteria for whatever reason .

We are not recording deaths solely caused by COVID19. The figures referred to are "deaths of people in hospitals and care homes who previously tested positive for COVID19". That means that some people who are recorded did not die of COVID19 and some people who died of COVID19 are not recorded. This is well known and accepted because the statistic is still a good proxy for how bad it is here.

Unless you are privy to the raw scientific data jeremy, (which you might be for all I know). To me the figures are just a guide so I don't read too much into it any more

The figure is just a guide, but as long as it is measured consistently, it is a useful guide. And it lags behind infections by about two or three weeks, but that is how long it usually takes to die.

[Aruntraveller]

I'm not convinced that we the public are fully informed of the criteria used in measuring ,recording ,reporting of deaths caused solely by covid  or when and if the govmt change the criteria for whatever reason . Unless you are privy to the raw scientific data jeremy, (which you might be for all I know). To me the figures are just a guide so I don't read too much into it any more

Way, way back in this thread there was a conversation about the coding process in hospitals, which I used to be involved in peripherally, and even in that process there is always an element of not exactly error, more an openness to interpretation that leaves the figures just as you say a guide. The recent reduction in deaths in England attributed to Covid 19, is just one such example of said interpretation.

[Walter]

Way, way back in this thread there was a conversation about the coding process in hospitals, which I used to be involved in peripherally, and even in that process there is always an element of not exactly error, more an openness to interpretation that leaves the figures just as you say a guide. The recent reduction in deaths in England attributed to Covid 19, is just one such example of said interpretation.

Thanks Trent and keep up the good work 

[Aruntraveller]

Thanks Trent and keep up the good work 

Oh not working anymore thank goodness. Was fortunate enough to leave work slightly earlier than planned.