Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 240509 times)

Aruntraveller

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3200 on: October 09, 2020, 12:46:24 PM »
There are many scientists and medical experts that are speaking-up now about different ways to combat the pandemic but you will not find them on such media as the BBC, so you have to look elsewhere. This is worth a listen. Plus the interviewer is excellent - never biased and always asks relevant questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz_Z7Gf1aRE&t=816s

No, no, no. Do not fall for this "many scientists" claim. It is very few. They have been quoting a figure of 15 or 16 thousand scientists. Untrue. 15,000 people signed the petition or whatever it was. That could be any Tom, Dick or Harriet.

It is clear from all the data that herd immunity will not work without significant dangers to at risk groups.

In addition, although the majority of people in younger age groups are less affected you would still see an intolerable strain on health services if herd immunity were put into practice. Even now we are only just beginning to understand the implications of "long covid". Although the number of deaths in younger people is low, if you multiply that across large sections of the community the death toll would still be intolerable.

And no country has yet managed the trick of "shielding" at risk groups whilst letting the rest of society continue as normal. How would you look after people in care homes, hospitals, how would support at home from home helps work.

These proposals are grotesque and inhuman.
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3201 on: October 09, 2020, 12:48:47 PM »
Yes. In the Central Belt, restaurants are to shut but  cafes can open.
Then there needs to be a way to differentiate between a cafe and a restaurant. I presume this will be linked to planning, as each planning application will go beyond broad use classes and specify a particular use - so one businesses planning application (using English planning classes) will be A3 Cafe, while another will be A3 Restaurant. Yet another will be A4 Bar etc.


Nearly Sane

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3202 on: October 09, 2020, 12:59:29 PM »
Then there needs to be a way to differentiate between a cafe and a restaurant. I presume this will be linked to planning, as each planning application will go beyond broad use classes and specify a particular use - so one businesses planning application (using English planning classes) will be A3 Cafe, while another will be A3 Restaurant. Yet another will be A4 Bar etc.
It doesn't appear so from the briefing from Sturgeon

Nearly Sane

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3203 on: October 09, 2020, 01:16:49 PM »
The definition they are using for cafe is

'An establishment whose primary business activity, in the ordinary course of its business, is the sale of non alcoholic drinks, snacks or light meals"

jeremyp

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3204 on: October 09, 2020, 01:47:03 PM »
Nothing on  the licence states that they are cafes, and there is no official definition of a cafe.

So? The rule is "cafés are not allowed to serve alcohol". Whether a licence applies to a café or not is thus rendered irrelevant. It might have been relevant under the original rule that said only unlicensed cafés are allowed to even open, but that rule has been discarded as being stupid.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3205 on: October 09, 2020, 01:55:48 PM »
So? The rule is "cafés are not allowed to serve alcohol". Whether a licence applies to a café or not is thus rendered irrelevant. It might have been relevant under the original rule that said only unlicensed cafés are allowed to even open, but that rule has been discarded as being stupid.
You seem to be missing the point - there was no official definition of what a cafe was as opposed to a restaurant so there was confusion about what would be allowed to open. 

jeremyp

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3206 on: October 09, 2020, 02:01:31 PM »
So? The rule is "cafés are not allowed to serve alcohol". Whether a licence applies to a café or not is thus rendered irrelevant. It might have been relevant under the original rule that said only unlicensed cafés are allowed to even open, but that rule has been discarded as being stupid.

I may have to partially retract this post. I was making an assumption that a café and a restaurant were effectively the same thing for legal purposes.

I've just looked at the guidance ofd the Scottish government's web site. This was posted on Wednesday morning, so before Sturgeon's "clarification".

https://www.gov.scot/news/new-moves-to-stop-covid-19-spread/

Quote
  • All licensed premises will be required to close, with the exception of takeaway services
  • Cafés (unlicensed premises) which don’t have an alcohol licence will be able to open between 6am and 6pm

Clearly the above depends on the definition of "café" being "eating establishment that does not serve alcohol".

Now Sturgeon seems to have erased the difference by saying there is such a thing as a café that serves alcohol.

The definition they are using for cafe is

'An establishment whose primary business activity, in the ordinary course of its business, is the sale of non alcoholic drinks, snacks or light meals"

which muddies the water. Is McDonald's a café? Under that definition it is IMO.

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jeremyp

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3207 on: October 09, 2020, 02:02:21 PM »
You seem to be missing the point - there was no official definition of what a cafe was as opposed to a restaurant so there was confusion about what would be allowed to open.

See reply #3206
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SweetPea

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3208 on: October 09, 2020, 05:13:53 PM »
No, no, no. Do not fall for this "many scientists" claim. It is very few. They have been quoting a figure of 15 or 16 thousand scientists. Untrue. 15,000 people signed the petition or whatever it was. That could be any Tom, Dick or Harriet.

It is clear from all the data that herd immunity will not work without significant dangers to at risk groups.

In addition, although the majority of people in younger age groups are less affected you would still see an intolerable strain on health services if herd immunity were put into practice. Even now we are only just beginning to understand the implications of "long covid". Although the number of deaths in younger people is low, if you multiply that across large sections of the community the death toll would still be intolerable.

And no country has yet managed the trick of "shielding" at risk groups whilst letting the rest of society continue as normal. How would you look after people in care homes, hospitals, how would support at home from home helps work.

These proposals are grotesque and inhuman.

The problem is the cure is becoming equally as bad as the disease. Peoples' lives are being ruined. Some folk are in real trouble both financially and mentally. Suicide rates have risen along with domestic and child abuse reports. This virus is not disappearing anytime soon, we may have to live with the 'new normal' and various restrictions indefinitely. At the moment two of my grandchildren are off school in isolation for two weeks because the infant department has closed as a member of staff tested positive for the virus. They could return to school and be sent home again within days when someone else tests positive.

What is happening as a result of lockdown restrictions is equally inhuman. One professor noted, so many coronavirus rules as measures have a limited effect.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3209 on: October 10, 2020, 06:08:22 AM »
There is definitely a different attitude to the pubs and restaurant closures this time in Scotland. Many putting up signs about the number of jobs supported, and rather daftly imo a dumping of ice from some bars in George Square in Glasgow last night.

Aruntraveller

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3210 on: October 10, 2020, 09:49:12 AM »
The problem is the cure is becoming equally as bad as the disease. Peoples' lives are being ruined. Some folk are in real trouble both financially and mentally. Suicide rates have risen along with domestic and child abuse reports. This virus is not disappearing anytime soon, we may have to live with the 'new normal' and various restrictions indefinitely. At the moment two of my grandchildren are off school in isolation for two weeks because the infant department has closed as a member of staff tested positive for the virus. They could return to school and be sent home again within days when someone else tests positive.

What is happening as a result of lockdown restrictions is equally inhuman. One professor noted, so many coronavirus rules as measures have a limited effect.

Sweetpea - if you want to follow the Great Barrington Declaration signed by Dr Harold Shipman and Dr I P Freely (amongst others) feel free. I think I'll stick with more reputable doctors and scientists.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/herd-immunity-letter-called-into-question-after-scores-of-fake-names-found-among-the-signatories/09/10/?
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Maeght

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3211 on: October 10, 2020, 10:35:17 AM »
The problem is the cure is becoming equally as bad as the disease. Peoples' lives are being ruined. Some folk are in real trouble both financially and mentally. Suicide rates have risen along with domestic and child abuse reports. This virus is not disappearing anytime soon, we may have to live with the 'new normal' and various restrictions indefinitely. At the moment two of my grandchildren are off school in isolation for two weeks because the infant department has closed as a member of staff tested positive for the virus. They could return to school and be sent home again within days when someone else tests positive.

What is happening as a result of lockdown restrictions is equally inhuman. One professor noted, so many coronavirus rules as measures have a limited effect.

If we went down the herd immunity route everything would be much worse. Widespread sickness and deaths, with a significant number of people having lifelong health issues, both physical and mental, and people not receiving treatment for other conditions as the health service is overwhelmed and short if staff. We don't even know if we could achieve herd immunity due to questions over how long antibodies last and what level of protection people get.

As with many such movements the leaders are fringe scientists and others with little or no knowledge, but with a political agenda, join in along with the jokers with the fake names. Happily those in charge know all this and won't be influenced by this.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2020, 06:55:17 PM by Maeght »

Nearly Sane

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Aruntraveller

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3213 on: October 10, 2020, 11:08:46 AM »
This is good


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/10/continual-local-lockdowns-answer-covid-control?__twitter_impression=true

Excellent article. Our* unwillingness to learn from others is quite staggering.

*When I say "our" I really mean "our government"
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Aruntraveller

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3214 on: October 10, 2020, 11:52:09 AM »
And yet another reason for herd immunity not to be considered a panacea:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/flurry-of-coronavirus-reinfections-leaves-scientists-puzzled
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3215 on: October 10, 2020, 02:01:11 PM »
One of the places that I thought might claim that it was a cafe did so and were taking bookings but they have just announced that they will only be doing a takeaway service due to Scot Govt instructions.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3216 on: October 10, 2020, 03:42:45 PM »
Meanwhile billionaires doing well. Bezos I understand but Musk is a mystery to me


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54446285?fbclid=IwAR02pBFqlz-dFQeOyKhka0ZNLdaiKANw0x24SZX2YWJnrjqSypxDeeILsx8

jeremyp

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3217 on: October 10, 2020, 06:16:23 PM »
This is good


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/10/continual-local-lockdowns-answer-covid-control?__twitter_impression=true
No it isn’t.

China is almost certainly lying about its stats and, even if it isn’t, they did things that we would never tolerate like welding up the doors of apartment blocks.

New Zealand is in the back of beyond with a population smaller than London crammed into about 400 times the area.

I realise that this article feeds your prejudices, but it’s superficial nonsense.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3218 on: October 10, 2020, 06:19:59 PM »
No it isn’t.

China is almost certainly lying about its stats and, even if it isn’t, they did things that we would never tolerate like welding up the doors of apartment blocks.

New Zealand is in the back of beyond with a population smaller than London crammed into about 400 times the area.

I realise that this article feeds your prejudices, but it’s superficial nonsense.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devi_Sridhar

Nearly Sane

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3219 on: October 10, 2020, 06:25:39 PM »
No it isn’t.

China is almost certainly lying about its stats and, even if it isn’t, they did things that we would never tolerate like welding up the doors of apartment blocks.

New Zealand is in the back of beyond with a population smaller than London crammed into about 400 times the area.

I realise that this article feeds your prejudices, but it’s superficial nonsense.
And what are my prejudices?


Aruntraveller

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3221 on: October 11, 2020, 10:37:10 AM »
Quote
I realise that this article feeds your prejudices, but it’s superficial nonsense.

Did you actually read the article?

At no point did it claim that we could get to a situation like NZ or Vietnam. I think everyone realises there will be differences between different countries.

It simply made the point that if you want to get to a point where society can function relatively normally you need a robust and efficient test and trace system, instead of worrying about letting people get their 2 weeks in the sun.

That our test and trace system is neither robust or efficient doesn't really need further explanation, but out of interest how fast are we testing people and what number are we failing to contact?

Latest figures I saw for tracing all contacts was 68.8%. That is not brilliant when you are trying to control a virus.

As for how fast test results come through:

• Turnaround times for pillar 2 (swab testing for the wide population) have become
longer for all in-person testing routes2 compared to the previous week. In the most
recent week, 60.8% of in-person tests results were received the next day after the
test was taken compared to 70.6% in the previous week. Turnaround times for
satellite/home tests have become notably shorter over the past 3 weeks.


Both these figures are from gov.uk website.

Everyone I know wants to get back to some kind of recognisable functioning society, but our government is failing us, particularly on test and trace.

The stupidity of it is, if they'd managed to get their collective arses into gear on test & trace, then all our other problems caused by the pandemic would have been so much easier to manage as shown by NZ and others.
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Nearly Sane

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Nearly Sane

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3223 on: October 11, 2020, 06:40:18 PM »

jeremyp

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #3224 on: October 12, 2020, 12:05:02 PM »
Did you actually read the article?

At no point did it claim that we could get to a situation like NZ or Vietnam. I think everyone realises there will be differences between different countries.
Why did it bring them up then?
Quote
It simply made the point that if you want to get to a point where society can function relatively normally you need a robust and efficient test and trace system, instead of worrying about letting people get their 2 weeks in the sun.
And yet that is what people worry about.
Quote
That our test and trace system is neither robust or efficient doesn't really need further explanation, but out of interest how fast are we testing people and what number are we failing to contact?

Latest figures I saw for tracing all contacts was 68.8%. That is not brilliant when you are trying to control a virus.

As for how fast test results come through:

• Turnaround times for pillar 2 (swab testing for the wide population) have become
longer for all in-person testing routes2 compared to the previous week. In the most
recent week, 60.8% of in-person tests results were received the next day after the
test was taken compared to 70.6% in the previous week. Turnaround times for
satellite/home tests have become notably shorter over the past 3 weeks.


Both these figures are from gov.uk website.

Everyone I know wants to get back to some kind of recognisable functioning society, but our government is failing us, particularly on test and trace.

The stupidity of it is, if they'd managed to get their collective arses into gear on test & trace, then all our other problems caused by the pandemic would have been so much easier to manage as shown by NZ and others.

I don't know what you are talking about. Our test and trace system is "world beating".

In all seriousness though, our test and trace system is broken for a lot of reasons and it may not even be fixable in the current political climate.

A fundamental problem here is that, when somebody makes a mistake, everybody wants to pillory them. That's not just the government but in the civil service and their contractors too. Thus, there is a culture of CYA which means that the people doing the work want to keep things secret and when mistakes are made, they want to cover them up. For example, the test and trace system was using Excel spreadsheets for data transfer, and old spreadsheets at that. Predictably they broke. We still don't know exactly what went wrong because people are trying to protect themselves and their jobs. Why wasn't the whole process completely open?

Another problem is the way our government's machinery works. Normally, when the government wants to spend some money, it takes weeks or months to make a decision and then months to actually get around to do anything. People assume that when Boris says "do this" it's going to happen, but he can't wave a magic wand. For example, to get shed loads of PPE through normal channels might take weeks or months of procurement. The NHS and government procurements department is not up to the task of getting millions of masks next week. If you need two million masks tomorrow to stop people from dying and your mate says he can supply them, there is a very strong temptation to take him up on his offer.

These are the reasons why you see government ministers giving contracts to their mates and why you see departments using Excel for safety critical applications. There's too much secrecy and too much blame culture for us to fix this properly.

It also doesn't help when people decide to ignore the rules as they did in some Northern towns and cities when the 10pm curfew for pubs came into effect. You may not agree with the rule, but gathering together in large crowds after the pubs shut isn't going to improve the situation.

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