Coronavirus

[Spud]

Problem with this research is that it was carried out in the idealised environment of a petri dish (with guaranteed 100% contact between virus and reagent, not the non-idealised environment of a real mouth. The other big flaw is that the key entry point for the virus seems to be certain types of nasal cell - ie. the nose, not the mouth.

The experiment demonstrated that the mouthwash kills the virus. Of course it's not going to eliminate all of the virus in the mouth, but will still reduce the viral load.

There isn't such a thing as the 'it works for me stage' something either works or it doesn't - thinking you'd like it to work just cos you like the idea is merely the placebo effect.

What I meant was that it is still at the stage where somebody discovers that something benefits them, but this hasn't been confirmed experimentally. I'm not claiming that any one action can completely ensure one doesn't become infected. Only complete isolation or maybe a vaccine could do that.

[ProfessorDavey]

The experiment demonstrated that the mouthwash kills the virus. Of course it's not going to eliminate all of the virus in the mouth, but will still reduce the viral load.

But the experiment was carried out in a dish - there is no guarantee that the virus will be killed in the mouth.

And as the key route of entry and infection seems to be via specific cells in the nasal passage then killing the virus in the mouth may have no, or very limited effect, in actually preventing infection.

[ProfessorDavey]

What I meant was that it is still at the stage where somebody discovers that something benefits them, but this hasn't been confirmed experimentally.

How on earth can you say that something benefits them unless you have demonstrated that through experiment. We aren't talking about a subjective benefit here but an objective one - you become infected or you don't become infected. How on earth can an individual know whether has benefited them in this respect (mouthwash reducing likelihood of becoming infected with covid) unless there is evidence to demonstrate it.

Someone claiming something benefits them in terms of likelihood of covid infection is complete non-sense without evidence. Indeed it is worse than that as if someone thinks it benefits them when actually it has no effect on infection then that person may take additional risks because they think they are safe than they actually are, not only resulted in additional risk to themselves but also to others.

[jeremyp]

I was just wondering … does anyone have an idea of, vaguely, how many people have had the virus one way or another since the beginning of the year. If every single person from youngest to oldest was tested today, what, vaguely, would the total be, and that would be including the number who have died? This may be an impossible question, but I ask it in case someone has an idea.

I don't think anybody really knows.

This report says that nearly 100,000 people are catching it every day at the moment. It also has a graphic (not very helpful to a visually impaired person) that says there have been 942,000 confirmed cases so far. This is a huge underestimate because not everybody who has had it has been tested.

It also says 46,000 deaths. If we assume that the mortality rate is 1% (as has been claimed), that means 46 million people have had the disease. That seems absurdly high to me but if we take that as the upper estimate and 942,000 as the lower estimate, we are talking about several million people having had the disease.

[ad_orientem]

I don't think anybody really knows.

This report says that nearly 100,000 people are catching it every day at the moment. It also has a graphic (not very helpful to a visually impaired person) that says there have been 942,000 confirmed cases so far. This is a huge underestimate because not everybody who has had it has been tested.

It also says 46,000 deaths. If we assume that the mortality rate is 1% (as has been claimed), that means 46 million people have had the disease. That seems absurdly high to me but if we take that as the upper estimate and 942,000 as the lower estimate, we are talking about several million people having had the disease.

Weren't antibody tests supposed to give us an indication of how much of the population have contracted the virus? The only problem is is that the antibodies don't last long, especially for the those who had mild or no symptoms.

[Udayana]

Weren't antibody tests supposed to give us an indication of how much of the population have contracted the virus? The only problem is is that the antibodies don't last long, especially for the those who had mild or no symptoms.

There is a government survey for 1 year period - so no results expected for quite some time:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-begins-large-scale-virus-infection-and-antibody-test-study

There was an Imperial College (IC) survey in July with results published in August. It found 6% had been infected (overall for England):
https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-publishes-results

However, as you say, the antibodies don't last long, and the latest IC survey found that the number had dropped since July to 4.4% in Sep:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/27/proportion-of-people-in-england-with-covid-antibodies-has-fallen-study-says

So, the tests can't help that much with trying to determine how many people have had the disease or the number susceptible.
 

[Nearly Sane]

....

It also says 46,000 deaths. If we assume that the mortality rate is 1% (as has been claimed), that means 46 million people have had the disease. That seems absurdly high to me but if we take that as the upper estimate and 942,000 as the lower estimate, we are talking about several million people having had the disease.

46,000 is 1 percent of 4.6m not 46m so that makes more sense.

[SusanDoris]

I don't think anybody really knows.

This report says that nearly 100,000 people are catching it every day at the moment. It also has a graphic (not very helpful to a visually impaired person) that says there have been 942,000 confirmed cases so far. This is a huge underestimate because not everybody who has had it has been tested.

It also says 46,000 deaths. If we assume that the mortality rate is 1% (as has been claimed), that means 46 million people have had the disease. That seems absurdly high to me but if we take that as the upper estimate and 942,000 as the lower estimate, we are talking about several million people having had the disease.

Thank you very much for your reply. If the number is towards the higher end, I don't think I would be surprised.

[Nearly Sane]

Preston Council posted advice stating membership based social clubs "do not sell alcohol, instead they supply alcohol to their members".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-54718001

[Nearly Sane]

Being in a level 3 area I'm intrigued as to which pubs and restaurants will reopen with no alcohol and shutting at 6. One of the places that tried to open as a cafe will certainly because they ran as a cafe up till lunch. Can't see restaurants that do lunch and dinner service exclusively finding it worthwhile to open, and the vast majority of pubs will stay shut, I suspect.
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54731245

[Spud]

But the experiment was carried out in a dish - there is no guarantee that the virus will be killed in the mouth.

And as the key route of entry and infection seems to be via specific cells in the nasal passage then killing the virus in the mouth may have no, or very limited effect, in actually preventing infection.

It was stated that mouthwash could not be used to treat the infection. But if it does disable viruses in the mouth that have not yet infected cells, then someone who's used it and then coughs won't emit as much virus into the air, so other people he comes into contact with will inhale less virus.
I've already said that the nose contains a built in virus filter (nasal hair). So if a person blows his nose then he will expel virus. Thus one tactic would be to change hankies often, to prevent virus spreading via a dirty hanky. We can talk more about noses if you like.

[jeremyp]

46,000 is 1 percent of 4.6m not 46m so that makes more sense.

Yes. In fact, it seems quite a reasonable estimate.

[jeremyp]

Thank you very much for your reply. If the number is towards the higher end, I don't think I would be surprised.

My high end was wrong by a factor of ten as NS pointed out.

[Nearly Sane]

Some coverage of the corruption in the procurement process


https://goodlawproject.org/news/special-procurement-channels/

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Some coverage of the corruption in the procurement process


https://goodlawproject.org/news/special-procurement-channels/

The Tory slime trail should inform our vote wherever its festering mucoidal nastiness besmirches the environment.

[Nearly Sane]

News conference from Johnson at 4pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-54762048?__twitter_impression=true

[Nearly Sane]

News conference from Johnson at 4pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-54762048?__twitter_impression=true

Moved to 5pm

[Nearly Sane]

Looking like the press conference getting delayed again

[Nearly Sane]

Hearing 18.30 now

[jeremyp]

What an absolute farce. The BBC is already reporting on what the new measures will be, so why can't Boris stand up and tell us? The only thing I can think of is that he's actually going to row back some of the measures because of political pressure from his MPs.

[Nearly Sane]

What an absolute farce. The BBC is already reporting on what the new measures will be, so why can't Boris stand up and tell us? The only thing I can think of is that he's actually going to row back some of the measures because of political pressure from his MPs.

I am clinging to the hope that it's about working on the details of increased financial support.

[Nearly Sane]

Will Boris bugger Strictly? Given all of the measures have already been leaked, despite that being a bad thing according to the hypocrites, this is looking a joke.

[Nearly Sane]

And as ever farcically presented. Good that furlough has been extended but I watch Johnson appear to read out from notes and if that was written, it was written by an idiot and read out by fool.

[Anchorman]

And as ever farcically presented. Good that furlough has been extended but I watch Johnson appear to read out from notes and if that was written, it was written by an idiot and read out by fool.

     



After tonight, is it any wonder that he is seen by an increasing number as an inconvenience at best, a liability at worst?

[Nearly Sane]

Meanwhile in Barcelona


https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/nov/02/pianist-plays-eternal-flame-during-violent-anti-lockdown-protest-in-barcelona-video