Coronavirus

[Nearly Sane]

Hope this is a false alarm


http://www.wrexham.com/news/bomb-disposal-unit-attends-ongoing-incident-on-wrexham-industrial-estate-wockhardt-factory-closed-off-199680.html

So there appears to have been a controlled explosion and roads are now reopened

[Roses]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55822838

The Vaccine plant is open for business again.

[Nearly Sane]

Covid takes us back to the 1950s


https://www.glamourmagazine.co.uk/article/government-coronavirus-advert-sexist

[Nearly Sane]

EU losing plot on vaccines



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/27/eu-covid-vaccine-row-astrazeneca-european-commission?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR1Wl_oCyGk-Gl76ouWVZsbMHLc0j-6wvcW2LlJj7-OAunnpm6bQeCU9jA0

[ProfessorDavey]

EU losing plot on vaccines



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/27/eu-covid-vaccine-row-astrazeneca-european-commission?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR1Wl_oCyGk-Gl76ouWVZsbMHLc0j-6wvcW2LlJj7-OAunnpm6bQeCU9jA0

Although I have to say there is a significant level of hypocrisy from Gove on the radio this morning.

His line - that the UK should receive the vaccines they have ordered, paid for as scheduled in the contract the UK had signed. Fair enough, but frankly that seems to be all the EU are expecting too.

[Nearly Sane]

Although I have to say there is a significant level of hypocrisy from Gove on the radio this morning.

His line - that the UK should receive the vaccines they have ordered, paid for as scheduled in the contract the UK had signed. Fair enough, but frankly that seems to be all the EU are expecting too.

Though part of the reason that we appear to getting a supply is that UK govt worked at setting up more manufacturing in the UK.


The bigger problem though is overall vaccine nationalism as this is a stushie between 2 rich areas both of which are getting a substantially higher % of vaccines than their population %. The whole of Covid has been light on international cooperation outwith of the drug companies

[Nearly Sane]

And more EU plot loss

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/28/belgium-launches-investigation-of-astrazeneca-vaccine-plant?fbclid=IwAR3AZCLLh6moyzPbsdSrNzZk5GNNyI4inC_9Xw9_RsJUt1mgxxAcXA8qWXU

[ProfessorDavey]

Though part of the reason that we appear to getting a supply is that UK govt worked at setting up more manufacturing in the UK.

But there has also been development manufacturing facilities within the EU too - and let's not forget that I think all the Pfizer vaccine we have been using has been manufactured in the EU.

The bigger problem though is overall vaccine nationalism as this is a stushie between 2 rich areas both of which are getting a substantially higher % of vaccines than their population %. The whole of Covid has been light on international cooperation outwith of the drug companies

True - but it is naive to think that the richer countries wont use their money and influence to ensure they get vaccine supplies as fast as possible.

And actually in that statement perhaps lies the solution - for rich countries to be able to vaccine their whole populations very rapidly there needs to be massive manufacturing capacity and those rich countries will invest in that capacity. As the richer countries head towards everyone being vaccinated that capacity can shift to providing vast amounts of vaccines to less developed countries - but you need that capacity in the first place.

[Nearly Sane]

But there has also been development manufacturing facilities within the EU too - and let's not forget that I think all the Pfizer vaccine we have been using has been manufactured in the EU.
True - but it is naive to think that the richer countries wont use their money and influence to ensure they get vaccine supplies as fast as possible.

And actually in that statement perhaps lies the solution - for rich countries to be able to vaccine their whole populations very rapidly there needs to be massive manufacturing capacity and those rich countries will invest in that capacity. As the richer countries head towards everyone being vaccinated that capacity can shift to providing vast amounts of vaccines to less developed countries - but you need that capacity in the first place.

Yes, but the UK govt isn't trying to say it will somehow commandeer the amounts produced in Europe, and the capacity vs UK population is a considerably higher ratio than the EU capacity vs population.
.
As to overall vaccine nationalism part of the issue is that they are still being produced under a licence system that gives a lot of power to the drug companies. Globally we should have been looking to expand production as wide as possible rather than tye rich countries getting all the benefits first. In addition this approach will greatly extend the virus being unchecked in huge numbers of the global population, increasing possibilities of variation

[ProfessorDavey]

Yes, but the UK govt isn't trying to say it will somehow commandeer the amounts produced in Europe, and the capacity vs UK population is a considerably higher ratio than the EU capacity vs population.

But that is based on a presumption that vaccines produced in the UK are for home consumption, and those produced in the EU for EU consumption.

That isn't the case - various countries and groups of countries have entered into contracts with commercial organisations to supply vaccines - I doubt those contracts make any mention of where those vaccines are produced.

And I'm not sure it is the case that the UK has higher production capacity per capital than the rest of europe. I've certainly not seen any data to indicate this - so if you think that is true, can you provide the evidence please.

[Nearly Sane]

But that is based on a presumption that vaccines produced in the UK are for home consumption, and those produced in the EU for EU consumption.

That isn't the case - various countries and groups of countries have entered into contracts with commercial organisations to supply vaccines - I doubt those contracts make any mention of where those vaccines are produced.

And I'm not sure it is the case that the UK has higher production capacity per capital than the rest of europe. I've certainly not seen any data to indicate this - so if you think that is true, can you provide the evidence please.

That the EU are wanting vaccines produced in the UK to cover a shortfall, and that the numbers that are being promised to the EU from EU production are in numbers of5million or so show this.

[Udayana]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/why-has-astrazeneca-cut-vaccines-to-eu-and-will-it-impact-uk-

Based on the delivery plans and various remarks by Soriot, you can make a rough estimate that the EU plants are producing about 3m doses per week compared to the UK production of 2m. We could assume that the UK plants are running with max yield, with the EU plants somewhere around a third of that. They have also had yield issues in the States and Australia, although Indian production seems to be going OK.

Rather than indulge in legalistic wrangling it would be best for the EU to do what they can support AZ in getting the EU plants up to full capacity?   

Also, all (rich) countries have contracts for a number of different vaccines as there was no guarantee that any particular tech could deliver to any given schedule. The EU bet big on Sanofi which didn't work out.

[Roses]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55844987

Someone has been arrested in connection with the suspicious package sent to the vaccine site in Wrexham.

[Nearly Sane]

Covid takes us back to the 1950s


https://www.glamourmagazine.co.uk/article/government-coronavirus-advert-sexist

And advert withdrawn


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55844367

[ProfessorDavey]

That the EU are wanting vaccines produced in the UK to cover a shortfall, and that the numbers that are being promised to the EU from EU production are in numbers of5million or so show this.

No - your assumption makes no sense, unless you think that every vaccine contract signed by a country is for x million vaccines produced in that country - that isn't the case and has never been the case. There is no suggestion that all the vaccines bought by the EU will be manufactured in the EU, nor that all the vaccines bought by the UK will be manufactured in the UK. So the suggestion that the EU want vaccines manufactured in the UK to cover a 'shortfall' is meaningless.

Let's not forget that the UK has ordered 40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine - as far as I am aware every one of those doses will come from the EU as there is no Pfizer vaccine manufacturing facility in the UK. Is the UK wanting Pfizer vaccines produced in the EU because it has a 'shortfall' - of course not, it ordered 40 million doses and it, quite reasonably expects those 40 million doses to be delivered (in this case from EU manufacturing facilities). No doubt the UK would be pretty hacked off if Pfizer told them 'sorry chum, you aren't getting your (EU manufactured) vaccines because the EU wants them. Likewise the EU have every right to expect their AZ vaccines contract to be honoured too, regardless of whether they are being manufactured. And far more AZ vaccines are being manufactured in the EU than Pfizer ones are being manufactured in the UK AFAIK.

[Nearly Sane]

No - your assumption makes no sense, unless you think that every vaccine contract signed by a country is for x million vaccines produced in that country - that isn't the case and has never been the case. There is no suggestion that all the vaccines bought by the EU will be manufactured in the EU, nor that all the vaccines bought by the UK will be manufactured in the UK. So the suggestion that the EU want vaccines manufactured in the UK to cover a 'shortfall' is meaningless.

Let's not forget that the UK has ordered 40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine - as far as I am aware every one of those doses will come from the EU as there is no Pfizer vaccine manufacturing facility in the UK. Is the UK wanting Pfizer vaccines produced in the EU because it has a 'shortfall' - of course not, it ordered 40 million doses and it, quite reasonably expects those 40 million doses to be delivered (in this case from EU manufacturing facilities). No doubt the UK would be pretty hacked off if Pfizer told them 'sorry chum, you aren't getting your (EU manufactured) vaccines because the EU wants them. Likewise the EU have every right to expect their AZ vaccines contract to be honoured too, regardless of whether they are being manufactured. And far more AZ vaccines are being manufactured in the EU than Pfizer ones are being manufactured in the UK AFAIK.

You're very confused. If I claim there is a greater capacity per head to produce vaccines in the UK than the EU, where those vaccines are then used is of no impact to that statement

[ProfessorDavey]

You're very confused. If I claim there is a greater capacity per head to produce vaccines in the UK than the EU, where those vaccines are then used is of no impact to that statement

But you have failed to provide any evidence that there is greater capacity to manufacture vaccines per head in the UK rather than in the EU. Until or unless you do that any discussion about the impact of 'greater capacity' in one place or the other is, frankly, moot.

Off you pop and find the evidence to support your claim of greater capacity per head to produce vaccines in the UK than the EU.

[Nearly Sane]

But you have failed to provide any evidence that there is greater capacity to manufacture vaccines per head in the UK rather than in the EU. Until or unless you do that any discussion about the impact of 'greater capacity' in one place or the other is, frankly, moot.

Off you pop and find the evidence to support your claim of greater capacity per head to produce vaccines in the UK than the EU.

Apart from that being clearly implied by the attempts by the EU to get vaccines from the UK - which given they are already behind in vaccination by around 8% of the population - their motivation to do so is based on the lack of vaccines in Europe creating the shortfall.


And as Udayana also covered that's what can be worked out from the details here.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/why-has-astrazeneca-cut-vaccines-to-eu-and-will-it-impact-uk-

[ProfessorDavey]

Apart from that being clearly implied by the attempts by the EU to get vaccines from the UK - which given they are already behind in vaccination by around 8% of the population - their motivation to do so is based on the lack of vaccines in Europe creating the shortfall.

Which tells us nothing about the capacity for manufacture of the vaccine. You might have said that all of the early vaccinations in the UK were sourced from the EU (as they were Pfizer ones) and therefore the UK must have lacked manufacturing capacity. That would be a non-sense statement, just as your comment is non-sense without evidence to back it up.

And as Udayana also covered that's what can be worked out from the details here.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/why-has-astrazeneca-cut-vaccines-to-eu-and-will-it-impact-uk-

Where in the article does it give vaccine manufacturing capacities for the UK vs the EU.

And before you say 'look at the info-graphic', read it properly - this is capacity to produce the AstraZeneca vaccine - sure the UK's capacity for the AZ vaccine (100million) looks higher per head than the EU (400million). But the UK doesn't, as far as I'm aware, have any production facilities for the other approved vaccines, the Pfizer and Moderna - while the EU does (and indeed supplies the UK with these vaccines).

So you cannot conclude anything about overall vaccine production capacity from that article.

[Nearly Sane]

Which tells us nothing about the capacity for manufacture of the vaccine. You might have said that all of the early vaccinations in the UK were sourced from the EU (as they were Pfizer ones) and therefore the UK must have lacked manufacturing capacity. That would be a non-sense statement, just as your comment is non-sense without evidence to back it up.

Where in the article does it give vaccine manufacturing capacities for the UK vs the EU.

And before you say 'look at the info-graphic', read it properly - this is capacity to produce the AstraZeneca vaccine - sure the UK's capacity for the AZ vaccine (100million) looks higher per head than the EU (400million). But the UK doesn't, as far as I'm aware, have any production facilities for the other approved vaccines, the Pfizer and Moderna - while the EU does (and indeed supplies the UK with these vaccines).

So you cannot conclude anything about overall vaccine production capacity from that article.

The early supply from Pfizer is a past situation so irrelevant to where we are now where the UK is working on its production of the AZ vaccine, and the EU being far behind in vaccination is unable to catch up on the capacity they have in any combination of AZ and Pfizer.

[ProfessorDavey]

The early supply from Pfizer is a past situation so irrelevant to where we are now where the UK is working on its production of the AZ vaccine, and the EU being far behind in vaccination is unable to catch up on the capacity they have in any combination of AZ and Pfizer.

It isn't irrelevant - both the UK and the EU are vaccinating using both AZ and Pfizer vaccines - the EU has production facilities for both, the UK only for the AZ.

The question of production capacity is simple - when working at full capacity how many vaccines (AZ, Pfizer, Moderna) can be produced in production facilities in the EU compared to vaccines (AZ, Pfizer, Moderna) that can be produced at production facilities in the UK. Now in terms of capacity per head, you'll then need to divide by the relevant population. However I do not have those data and nor do you so your claim of greater capacity per head to produce vaccines in the UK than the EU isn't backed up by any evidence.

However the notion of production capacity in a particular country is actually only relevant if the way in which the vaccine is distributed is on the basis that people in country X only get a vaccine produced in country X. That isn't how it works - country X enters into a contract with company A to deliver Z-million vaccine doses over a period of time B. Where those vaccines are produced isn't part of the deal - or if it was Belgium and the Netherlands would be laughing as they are largely responsible for the non-american production of all Pfizer and Moderna vaccine (I think).

[Udayana]

It isn't irrelevant - both the UK and the EU are vaccinating using both AZ and Pfizer vaccines - the EU has production facilities for both, the UK only for the AZ.

The question of production capacity is simple - when working at full capacity how many vaccines (AZ, Pfizer, Moderna) can be produced in production facilities in the EU compared to vaccines (AZ, Pfizer, Moderna) that can be produced at production facilities in the UK. Now in terms of capacity per head, you'll then need to divide by the relevant population. However I do not have those data and nor do you so your claim of greater capacity per head to produce vaccines in the UK than the EU isn't backed up by any evidence.

However the notion of production capacity in a particular country is actually only relevant if the way in which the vaccine is distributed is on the basis that people in country X only get a vaccine produced in country X. That isn't how it works - country X enters into a contract with company A to deliver Z-million vaccine doses over a period of time B. Where those vaccines are produced isn't part of the deal - or if it was Belgium and the Netherlands would be laughing as they are largely responsible for the non-american production of all Pfizer and Moderna vaccine (I think).

Both the initial Phizer and AZ vaccine supplied in the UK were from Europe - Belgium and Netherlands respectively - the UK capacity (non-existent at the start of 2020 except for small amounts of flu vaccine) has only recently come on-line.

The EU is making the issue territorial - suggesting that UK production was explicitly included in their contract with AZ, and also that they might stop Phizer doses going to the UK.  No doubt lawyers could argue forever about what is covered by the contracts, but it is unlikely to help!

[ProfessorDavey]

Both the initial Phizer and AZ vaccine supplied in the UK were from Europe - Belgium and Netherlands respectively - the UK capacity (non-existent at the start of 2020 except for small amounts of flu vaccine) has only recently come on-line.

True - and I gather also that the EU part-funded the programme to establish capacity to manufacture the AZ vaccine in the UK.

The EU is making the issue territorial - suggesting that UK production was explicitly included in their contract with AZ, and also that they might stop Phizer doses going to the UK.

You could, of course, argue it the other way around - in other words that the UK was happy to take Pfizer and AZ vaccines from the EU when the UK vaccine manufacturing capacity was unable to meet demand, however aren't willing to allow AZ vaccines produced in the UK to be shipped to the EU when they are struggling to meet current demand. Either way it is pretty unseemly and I doubt that contracts placed by either EU or UK for either vaccine had stipulations as to their origin of manufacture.

No doubt lawyers could argue forever about what is covered by the contracts, but it is unlikely to help!

Perhaps so.

However I think the key point here is that it would appear that AZ are unable currently to meet their contractual agreements for supply of their vaccine to both UK and EU. So what to do - I think in the short term the fairest option is to ensure that both the EU and the UK are impacted proportionally. But of course the only long term solution is to increase capacity to meet the contractual obligations with both the UK and EU.

[SweetPea]

The EU were slow on purpose. They didn’t want to approve the AZ vaccine, they were waiting for the French one which has now been abandoned. They stated publicly they would not look at the AZ vaccine until mid March despite falling behind with their vaccination program. Now Brussels eurocrats are running around like headless chickens trying to deflect the blame away from their own poor performance.

To think we could have joined their vaccination scheme.

[jeremyp]

True - and I gather also that the EU part-funded the programme to establish capacity to manufacture the AZ vaccine in the UK.
You could, of course, argue it the other way around - in other words that the UK was happy to take Pfizer and AZ vaccines from the EU when the UK vaccine manufacturing capacity was unable to meet demand, however aren't willing to allow AZ vaccines produced in the UK to be shipped to the EU when they are struggling to meet current demand. Either way it is pretty unseemly and I doubt that contracts placed by either EU or UK for either vaccine had stipulations as to their origin of manufacture.
Perhaps so.

However I think the key point here is that it would appear that AZ are unable currently to meet their contractual agreements for supply of their vaccine to both UK and EU. So what to do - I think in the short term the fairest option is to ensure that both the EU and the UK are impacted proportionally. But of course the only long term solution is to increase capacity to meet the contractual obligations with both the UK and EU.

All of this is just hypothesis unless you have sight of the relevant contracts.

If the EU contract says "vaccine to be supplied from the plants in Belgium and the Netherlands" then the EU doesn't have a leg to stand on in this dispute. If, on the other hand, the British plant is included in the contract, then AstraZenica can't just say "sorry EU", they must make a commercial decision about how to resolve the issue.  It's likely that both their UK and EU contracts have penalty clauses which come into effect in the event of failure to commit to delivering contracted vaccines. So those will inform AstraZenica's decision.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55852698

The CEO of AstraZenica said that:

the contract stipulated that the company would make its "best effort" to meet the EU demand and did not compel the company to stick to a specific timetable - an assertion disputed by the EU.

If he is right and if the British contract does stipulate a timetable, the UK must get priority.

It's a horrible mess because, in a ideal world, we would all be sat round a table discussing how to resolve the shortage in a way that is fair to everybody, but political squabbles are clearly getting in the way.

Note that, until today, the EU couldn't do anything with the AstraZenica vaccine because, only today will it be approved in the EU.