Coronavirus

[SteveH]

The end of the suit?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58374306

Not while 'The Chap' magazine exists. (actually, I've gone off it in recent years. It used to have some interesting articles about all sorts of arcane subjects, but now it's little more than a clothing catalogue.)

[Nearly Sane]

Not while 'The Chap' magazine exists. (actually, I've gone off it in recent years. It used to have some interesting articles about all sorts of arcane subjects, but now it's little more than a clothing catalogue.)

I suspect suits will be the vinyl of the future, never quite dying out, having resurges, and supported by a loyal band of hard cases.

[Spud]

Not really - the issue that are investigating isn't whether being vaccinated reduced the risk of blood clots associated with covid infection. What they were looking at was comparing increased risk of blood clot due to vaccination vs increased increased risk of blood clot due to covid infection.

Given that one of the (false) arguments put forward by anti vaxxers is an increased risk of blood clots, this research is important as it clear demonstrates a much greater risk of blood clots from infection than from vaccination, which tips the risk/benefit ratio further in favour of vaccination as blood clots seem to be the major (albeit very rare) adverse effect of vaccination. There are, of course, many other major impacts of infection other than blood clots.

So the conclusion is that you are probably less likely to suffer from blood clots if you are vaccinated than if not.

A few other people on Twitter were asking the same question as me about the nature of the study, but one of the authors has since clarified that about 90% of the participants who tested positive for covid, did so before they were vaccinated.

[Aruntraveller]

An interactive article from The Guardian regarding infection rates and spread. Ithas been published before but I don't remember seeing it:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/ng-interactive/2021/aug/30/how-contagious-delta-variant-covid-19-r0-r-factor-value-number-explainer-see-how-coronavirus-spread-infectious-flatten-the-curve?

[Spud]

You will note that contrary to Spud's naive view the expert opinion, as indicated in the article, is that getting vaccinated is absolutely key to dealing with variants.

But is it key that everybody gets vaccinated? I recall noting that by the time all over 70s had been done, the number of cases had fallen significantly. "In England, between 8 December 2020 and 11 March 2021, 90.2% of adults aged 70 years and over had received the first dose of a coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine" By 11 March case numbers were around 6,000 per day, down from 60,000 in early January.

Also worth noting that the variants of concern all arose in populations with virtually no vaccine-generated immunity.

As I understand it, the variants of concern arose in areas with high population density and poverty, due to high replication rates there. In theory, lockdown selects for these more infectious variants so that they become dominant.

[Spud]

Non-sense - we may not have reached herd immunity but we are far, far closer to it now than we were a year ago, through a combination of infection-generated and vaccine-generated immunity. Indeed I think in the UK not far off 90% of people have some level of immunity, demonstrated by the presence of covid antibodies.

Interesting. I was looking at the numbers of cases, which seem as high now as they were back in January, although the curve is less steep.

[ProfessorDavey]

Interesting. I was looking at the numbers of cases, which seem as high now as they were back in January, although the curve is less steep.

Not true - reported cases in Jan were considerably higher than now, and there were fewer tests being conducted then as well.

But herd immunity isn't just restriction to infection, but disease. So one of the major features of the vaccine is that it reduces severity of disease and of course plenty of the people testing positive are completely asymptomatic - and we only know they are positive due to our testing regimes. In normal circumstances if an infection was being passed around without generating symptoms we wouldn't be able to tell this from a situation where there was no infectious transmission.

There is no doubt that we are much closer to herd immunity now than in January and that is due in a large part to vaccination, but also ongoing infections within the population too.

As was pretty easily calculated from back of fag packet calculations way back in March 2020, getting to herd immunity without vaccination would have resulted in many times more deaths than we've seen.

[Harrowby Hall]

I suspect suits will be the vinyl of the future, never quite dying out, having resurges, and supported by a loyal band of hard cases.

Suit wearing - and sartorial tidiness generally - is a sign of subordination to the employing enterprise. It is a matter of discipline. If, during lockdown, a home-working employee has been as productive as he (or she) was in the employer's premises then perhaps she (or he) can argue that to have a set of  uncodified rules about self-presentation are unnecessary as they contribute little to the achievement of an enterprise's objectives.

It is interesting to note that the musicians in orchestras seldom appear in concerts in the previously standard "white tie and tails" but are more often seen wearing clothes that would seem to be more comfortable and relaxed. Their formal attire was a hangover from the days when orchestras were found in the homes of aristocrats and bishops and their members wore an attire which reflected their status as servants.

[SteveH]

A conspiracy theorist called Jupp
Thought vaccines were things to give up.
"I think I'll try", he said,
"A horse wormer instead".
He came third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2021/08/30/no-ivermectin-cannot-treat-covid-19/

[ProfessorDavey]

It is interesting to note that the musicians in orchestras seldom appear in concerts in the previously standard "white tie and tails" but are more often seen wearing clothes that would seem to be more comfortable and relaxed. Their formal attire was a hangover from the days when orchestras were found in the homes of aristocrats and bishops and their members wore an attire which reflected their status as servants.

While it is certainly true that few orchestras nowadays wear "white tie and tails" that does not mean that orchestra members aren't expected to conform to a dress code in concerts - in most cases they most definitely are. Typically that will be all-black attire. As a choir member we regularly perform with professional orchestras and I can tell you there is most definitely a dress code - and the orchestra will bring that with them on the day of the concert. So the final rehearsal will see them wearing casual attire and they change into their concert clothes before performing.

[Spud]

Not true - reported cases in Jan were considerably higher than now, and there were fewer tests being conducted then as well.

Yes, January had a much higher peak but it didn't last long and fell sharply. What I meant though was that now cases have plateaued at around 30,000 per day. But I guess considering that restrictions have been lifted that's still much better than the situation in January.

But herd immunity isn't just restriction to infection, but disease. So one of the major features of the vaccine is that it reduces severity of disease and of course plenty of the people testing positive are completely asymptomatic - and we only know they are positive due to our testing regimes. In normal circumstances if an infection was being passed around without generating symptoms we wouldn't be able to tell this from a situation where there was no infectious transmission.

That's a good point about the asymptomatic positive cases.

There is no doubt that we are much closer to herd immunity now than in January and that is due in a large part to vaccination, but also ongoing infections within the population too.

As was pretty easily calculated from back of fag packet calculations way back in March 2020, getting to herd immunity without vaccination would have resulted in many times more deaths than we've seen.

So what we need is for the booster to tackle Delta and then no new even more infectious strains to emerge.

[ProfessorDavey]

Yes, January had a much higher peak but it didn't last long and fell sharply. What I meant though was that now cases have plateaued at around 30,000 per day. But I guess considering that restrictions have been lifted that's still much better than the situation in January.

In Jan cases peaked at 80,000 cases per day, only attenuated by a severe lockdown. Currently we have no major restrictions and cases are less than half that, and with more testing.

But that is only part of the story. More importantly we have just one quarter of the hospital admissions compared to the Jan peak, and less than 10% of the daily deaths compared to the Jan peak. That shows the vaccine in action.

[Dicky Underpants]

He's too sexy for the jab. Disappointing - I quite liked RSF.

I've long since used up my quota of gentle tolerance for the anti-vaxxers. In the case of RSF, pity his infection didn't either kill him or permanently disable him.
Fortunately, there have been one or two anti-vaxxers who realised the error of their views and managed to broadcast a warning - just before dying in dreadful circumstances. I don't know how many of the latter it will take before the penny drops with the rest of the ignorant mob. With people like Peter Hitchens (right up his own arse that one) and Neil Oliver spreading disinformation, this may not be all that soon.

[Spud]

But we should always be looking for better ways to achieve the desired results, right? There are those who shy away from conventional medicine in favour of alternative approaches.

[Aruntraveller]

But we should always be looking for better ways to achieve the desired results, right? There are those who shy away from conventional medicine in favour of alternative approaches.

What like bleach or torchlight?

[Spud]

What like bleach or torchlight?

Well if the vaccine carries some risk, as the research above showed, we should be looking for better options. Bleach sound too risky to me, but torchlight... what did you have in mind?

[Spud]

In Jan cases peaked at 80,000 cases per day, only attenuated by a severe lockdown. Currently we have no major restrictions and cases are less than half that, and with more testing.

But that is only part of the story. More importantly we have just one quarter of the hospital admissions compared to the Jan peak, and less than 10% of the daily deaths compared to the Jan peak. That shows the vaccine in action.

Agreed. But herd immunity is where transmission is prevented, so we probably shouldn't call our current situation that.

[Aruntraveller]

Well if the vaccine carries some risk, as the research above showed, we should be looking for better options. Bleach sound too risky to me, but torchlight... what did you have in mind?

Just following an ex-presidents alternative treatment suggestions.

Alternative methods, certainly in the case of covid, is just being used as an excuse for making any old shit up.

[ProfessorDavey]

Agreed. But herd immunity is where transmission is prevented, so we probably shouldn't call our current situation that.

Actually herd immunity refers to the spread of an infectious disease, not just transmission of an infectious agent. So immunisation and vaccination that prevents disease (regardless of whether some infection/transmission is still ongoing) is still herd immunity. Remember that in most cases we don't routinely test for infections, we determine whether or not people, singly or as a population, are infected on the basis of the presence of disease. So a population where there remains transmission of an infectious agent but virtually no disease (due to prior infection and/or vaccination) would also be considered to have reached herd immunity - in other words the population is broadly immune from the infectious disease.

[Spud]

Actually herd immunity refers to the spread of an infectious disease, not just transmission of an infectious agent. So immunisation and vaccination that prevents disease (regardless of whether some infection/transmission is still ongoing) is still herd immunity. Remember that in most cases we don't routinely test for infections, we determine whether or not people, singly or as a population, are infected on the basis of the presence of disease. So a population where there remains transmission of an infectious agent but virtually no disease (due to prior infection and/or vaccination) would also be considered to have reached herd immunity - in other words the population is broadly immune from the infectious disease.

It also means, strictly speaking, that people who for whatever reason do not have immunity are protected; but I get your point.

[Spud]

Alternative methods, certainly in the case of covid, is just being used as an excuse for making any old shit up.

Sounds narrow minded.
So I was looking at Andrew Taylor Still's book, written before the earth's crust cooled so not particularly 'scientific' as we would define it. He recommends using the blister Beatle (cantherides) against smallpox because injecting cowpox into people was high risk.
Something I note with regard to the search for a better approach than mRNA vaccines is the necessity to treat the disease as early as possible. That sounds like a start.

[SusanDoris]

Well if the vaccine carries some risk, as the research above showed, we should be looking for better options. Bleach sound too risky to me, but torchlight... what did you have in mind?

I don't know how you can sit there and continue to type such idiotic stuff, I really don't.

[ProfessorDavey]

Well if the vaccine carries some risk, as the research above showed, we should be looking for better options. Bleach sound too risky to me, but torchlight... what did you have in mind?

But pretty well everything carries some level of risk. The point isn't to identify something with no risk (albeit good to minimise risk) - the point is the risk to benefit ratio. So the vaccine is great in this respect - it is highly effective at preventing disease and of course that disease carries risks way, way beyond that of the vaccine, and it is also incredibly safe, with most side effects being very minor and of negligible impact. There are more serious side effects (e.g. blood clots) but these are both very, very rare but also much less likely due to the vaccine than due to a potential covid infection.

So the vaccine provides an acceptable level of risk due to its great effectiveness.

You might mind a different 'treatment' with lower risk but unless it has similar effectiveness it will be much worse in terms of risk/benefit ratio than the vaccine. The point being - of something doesn't work then no risk can be justified. If something does work then you need to weigh up the benefit of it working against the risk of side effects.

[Aruntraveller]

Sounds narrow minded.
So I was looking at Andrew Taylor Still's book, written before the earth's crust cooled so not particularly 'scientific' as we would define it. He recommends using the blister Beatle (cantherides) against smallpox because injecting cowpox into people was high risk.
Something I note with regard to the search for a better approach than mRNA vaccines is the necessity to treat the disease as early as possible. That sounds like a start.

I suppose an accusation of narrow mindedness from you is some kind of accolade given that you are an expert in its execution.

I meant that a lot of the alternative methods proposed thus far have not been grounded in research of any kind.

Call me old fashioned but I prefer some scientific rigour applied to any treatments offered for any condition.

[Spud]

I don't know how you can sit there and continue to type such idiotic stuff, I really don't.

It was an attempt at a joke. To be clear, this is about the claim that because the vaccine carries lower risk of vascular diaease than the infection then everybody must get jabbed; and the charge that not being jabbed is selfish. As it stands, the jab has been shown to be dangerous and so we should search for a safer way to prevent, or at best reduce the severity of the disease.