Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 246282 times)

Aruntraveller

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4625 on: September 16, 2021, 09:38:50 AM »
Fascinating article about the work going on to create a vaccine that will protect against all variants, even ones not yet existing:

https://theconversation.com/covid-variants-we-spoke-to-the-experts-designing-a-single-vaccine-to-defeat-them-all-165641?
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4626 on: September 16, 2021, 12:32:07 PM »
And Jacob Rees-Mogg illustrates spectacular stupidity and illustrates why the UK govt has lost authority on this


'Jacob Rees-Mogg says Conservative MPs don’t need to wear facemasks in the Commons chamber because they regularly attend parliament and meet other MPs and says if opposition MPs also "worked a bit harder… they might not need to wear face coverings either."'
« Last Edit: September 16, 2021, 12:37:06 PM by Nearly Sane »

Nearly Sane

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ad_orientem

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Harrowby Hall

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4629 on: September 17, 2021, 07:54:14 AM »
Should one of her "guests" contract COVID-19 at her establishment and subsequently die - then she should be charged with manslaughter.
Does Magna Carta mean nothing to you? Did she die in vain?

Nearly Sane

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4630 on: September 17, 2021, 08:40:52 AM »
Comment from a teacher friend on their experience of anti vax protestors at school


'Anti vaccine protestors are now targeting schools! 😡 We had a load of them today, set up outside the school, playing loud music and shouting. Lessons were interrupted. We could smell the cannabis wafting up to the classrooms. They then caused a major disturbance as all the pupils gathered around instead of dispersing safely. The whole school at once! Our pupils see it as a novelty and were filming and laughing. Teachers trying to disperse pupils on a very, very busy main road were then targeted for not allowing pupils to enter into discussion. 😂😂😂😡😡😡Disgusting and wrong on every level!!! 😡😡😡😡'

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4631 on: September 17, 2021, 08:54:46 AM »
Thereby adding to the global climate crisis.

Save the planet - have the vaccine.

We could walk to Spain in September, and walk back in March? Not sure what we'd have for dinner though.

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4632 on: September 17, 2021, 09:18:24 AM »
..and for those people who don't have a car?

Are the recommended air conditioners portable and battery operated? Do they work for your purposes if it is both hot and windy?

It's the sauna principle: you heat up a large box - this doesn't use that much fuel - then sit in it. For extremetly hot weather, people don't generally go outside during the day. You can keep a building cool by closing curtains and windows, provided it's already cool. You can open all the windows and doors at night until it cools off
« Last Edit: September 17, 2021, 09:34:24 AM by Spud »

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4633 on: September 17, 2021, 09:23:45 AM »
I can smell something. Trying to work out what it is. Cracked it! It's bullshit!
It was probably not accurate, but I've found a video that I was looking for in which Geert Vanden Bosche explains what happens in a natural pandemic where there are no lockdowns or vaccinations. He then talks about how the latter change the outcome of the pandemic, in terms of herd immunity. At some point I'll try and write it up here.

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4634 on: September 17, 2021, 09:28:26 AM »
Yes. And you also forgot to mention that natural immunity will only be achieved at the probable cost of millions of deaths.

In the short term, yes, and this is why they introduced infection prevention measures - to 'flatten the curve'. But without them, the pandemic might only last two years, like the Spanish Flu. We might now end up in a situation where the pandemic lasts much longer than it would without human vaccines and lockdowns, causing more deaths overall.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2021, 09:30:52 AM by Spud »

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4635 on: September 17, 2021, 09:36:26 AM »
In the short term, yes, and this is why they introduced infection prevention measures - to 'flatten the curve'. But without them, the pandemic might only last two years, like the Spanish Flu. We might now end up in a situation where the pandemic lasts much longer than it would without human vaccines and lockdowns, causing more deaths overall.
Absolute non-sense. The levels of deaths required to reach herd immunity without vaccinations would be massively greater than with vaccination. Vaccination is the solution that allows us to achieve herd immunity with minimum levels of deaths and also to allow us to return to as near normal life as possible - the key being that vaccination massively reduces the risk of serious injury and death, so we can live with covid in the manner we live with flu and many other infectious diseases.

ad_orientem

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4636 on: September 17, 2021, 11:15:13 AM »
It was probably not accurate, but I've found a video that I was looking for in which Geert Vanden Bosche explains what happens in a natural pandemic where there are no lockdowns or vaccinations. He then talks about how the latter change the outcome of the pandemic, in terms of herd immunity. At some point I'll try and write it up here.

I know the video. I've seen it. That's a load of old pony as well.
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ad_orientem

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4637 on: September 17, 2021, 11:20:29 AM »
In the short term, yes, and this is why they introduced infection prevention measures - to 'flatten the curve'. But without them, the pandemic might only last two years, like the Spanish Flu. We might now end up in a situation where the pandemic lasts much longer than it would without human vaccines and lockdowns, causing more deaths overall.


Vaccines fo no prolong the pandemic. Quite the opposite, in fact. As has already been explained to you by others, they reduce infection rates and decrease the amounts of mutations.
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Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4638 on: September 18, 2021, 02:42:33 PM »
I know the video. I've seen it. That's a load of old pony as well.
Here's his theory:
We have innate immunity including IgM antibodies that are non-specific and can neutralize all coronaviruses.
These antibodies are depleted as we get older.
They protect against symptomatic infection in young and healthy people, forming complexes with the virus while it is confined to the upper respiratory tract; these complexes are phagocytosed by antigen presenting cells, such as macrophages. Infected cells are destroyed by natural killer cells, also part of the innate immune system.
That is why some people test positive but only have mild symptoms.
While this is happening, the adaptive part of the immune system is making IgG antibodies, which are antigen-specific. In asymptomatically or mildly infected people, these are short-lived and are present in low quantities.
From what I can tell, these IgG antibodies help someone whose innate immune system can't deal with the infection. Someone who becomes severely sick but recovers, has these antibodies in larger quantities for much longer (6-8 months?).

During the first wave, the virus mainly infects people with low innate protection.
When this 'reservoir' of hosts is depleted, there is a period where infection is low. The virus needs to find a new reservoir and so infects younger and fitter people. These peoples' innate antibodies and NK cells can deal with the virus on first exposure. However, these fit and younger people also start mounting a short-lived adaptive response of IgG antibodies which, on second exposure, suppress their innate antibodies. This is because, being antigen-specific, they have higher affinity than the IgM for binding to the virus. So if a person's second exposure happens at a time when they still have a weak adaptive response from their first exposure, the innate IgM antibodies, having lower affinity than the antigen specific antibodies, can't bind to the virus and neutralize it. But because the adaptive response is weak, the IgG antibodies are not able to neutralize it either. And so the virus is able to infect and cause disease in these people. This is the second wave.
This wave continues while there are enough people whose short-lived adaptive response is suppressing their innate response. When this reservoir is depleted, the virus then turns back to the previously infected, elderly and vulnerable group whose long-lived antibody response from their first infection has by now waned. Since their innate immunity is also weak, the virus can use this reservoir for a third wave of infection.

After this, there is sufficient innate and adaptive immunity in the population for the virus to be suppressed to the extent that local outbreaks no longer spread throughout the population.

So that's the pandemic where no human intervention occurs.

Lockdown measures lead to low infection levels, but the virus can still spread in asymptomatic carriers and can therefore still mutate. Because these peoples' innate immunity is temporarily suppressed by their short-lived adaptive response, any mutations that overcome this response will out-survive the original strain and become dominant.

This enables the virus to compensate for the pressure caused by the lockdown. Soon infections rise, and you have a stronger second wave than would otherwise have occurred.

If we add vaccination to the picture, what happens is that the virus starts to encounter more short-lived antibodies in people after their first jab. Because it has increased its infectiousness due to the lockdown, it is able to escape these antibodies and continue to infect, so that it still has the chance to increase its infectiousness further through mutation. Potentially therefore it can mutate enough to evade the vaccinal antibodies completely.

Enter the booster jabs - but again, possibly too late to counter variants that have by that time evolved to evade them also.

So this is Geert Vanden Bossche's theory, as I understand it. I'm not qualified to say whether what he says about innate immunity suppression and immune escape is correct, and it doesn't much affect my choice on taking vaccination and boosters.

Video here
« Last Edit: September 18, 2021, 05:50:18 PM by Spud »

Maeght

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Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4640 on: September 25, 2021, 05:33:39 PM »
Have a read of this.

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-critical-thinking-pseudoscience/doomsday-prophecy-dr-geert-vanden-bossche
I wonder what he would say about what Sarah Gilbert said the other day, that the virus will become less virulent over time and end up like a cold.
Is it the case that most viruses become more deadly (as with SARS Cov2) before becoming less deadly?

Maeght

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4641 on: September 25, 2021, 09:25:17 PM »
I wonder what he would say about what Sarah Gilbert said the other day, that the virus will become less virulent over time and end up like a cold.
Is it the case that most viruses become more deadly (as with SARS Cov2) before becoming less deadly?

Wasn't Sarah Gilbert's point that because of high levels of population immunity the virus would become more like the cold rather than the virus mutating to a less virulent form?

I don't think SARS-Cov-2 became more deadly did it - but rather more transmissible? This makes sense in terms of natural selection.

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4642 on: September 25, 2021, 10:09:01 PM »
Wasn't Sarah Gilbert's point that because of high levels of population immunity the virus would become more like the cold rather than the virus mutating to a less virulent form?

I don't think SARS-Cov-2 became more deadly did it - but rather more transmissible? This makes sense in terms of natural selection.
Yes, you're right I think. It became more infectious, and the vaccinal antibodies reduce its ability to reach/cause disease in the lungs.
Geert (pronounced Gert) is still asserting that the mass vaccination has caused the (already circulating) more infectious variants to become dominant. That with only natural immunity to contend with, the wild type would still be dominant.
He's also confirmed what I thought, that vaccinating just the vulnerable segment of the population would be ok as it leaves a good proportion with natural immunity who will reduce the infections by the delta etc variants (which the vaccines can't stop). But he says the more people are vaccinated, the lower the number of people who can deal with the variants.
Also, because of the high infection rates in countries with high levels of vaccination (due to lower levels of natural immunity) that makes mutation more likely.
But I think Sarah was also saying that the spike can't mutate much more because if it does it won't be able to bind to ace2. Geert still believes there's a giant wave coming, though.

Maeght

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4643 on: September 26, 2021, 08:12:11 AM »
Yes, you're right I think. It became more infectious, and the vaccinal antibodies reduce its ability to reach/cause disease in the lungs.
Geert (pronounced Gert) is still asserting that the mass vaccination has caused the (already circulating) more infectious variants to become dominant. That with only natural immunity to contend with, the wild type would still be dominant.
He's also confirmed what I thought, that vaccinating just the vulnerable segment of the population would be ok as it leaves a good proportion with natural immunity who will reduce the infections by the delta etc variants (which the vaccines can't stop). But he says the more people are vaccinated, the lower the number of people who can deal with the variants.
Also, because of the high infection rates in countries with high levels of vaccination (due to lower levels of natural immunity) that makes mutation more likely.
But I think Sarah was also saying that the spike can't mutate much more because if it does it won't be able to bind to ace2. Geert still believes there's a giant wave coming, though.

Yes, I know what he has been saying and these points are addressed in the article I posted the link to. He isn't the oracle on this so just repeating that Geert says this or Geert says that isn't of much value really. He is one voice - that doesn't necessarily make him wrong of course but it doesn't make him right either. You do seem to be doing the same here as you have done before with other topics - latched onto one voice which isn't mainstream and repeated what that voice says as if it is the truth whilst dismissing the main stream view. Experts around the world support mass vaccination whilst recognising there are some potential risks but concluding that the risk is small.

You seem to be a supporter of the idea of letting the virus run free amongst a large proportion of the population but this would result in a large number of deaths and serious illness in that section of the population with all the subsequent effects of that rippling through society. People of all ages without underlying health conditions have died or been seriously ill with long term health implications due to Covid-19 remember.

I'm not going to argue the scientific details, since I'm not a virologist and neither are you, but I do think that it is likely, from what I've read, that this virus will remain in circulation at a fairly high level but that the combination of immunity from vaccination combined by that from infection will mean that for the majority of the population the seriousness of infection will be greatly reduced. For some people however it will remain a very serious threat sadly.

The comments about the possibility that the virus can't mutate much more without becoming unable to infect us is reassuring and hopefully that turns out to be the case.

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4644 on: September 26, 2021, 01:49:24 PM »
Yes, I know what he has been saying and these points are addressed in the article I posted the link to. He isn't the oracle on this so just repeating that Geert says this or Geert says that isn't of much value really. He is one voice - that doesn't necessarily make him wrong of course but it doesn't make him right either. You do seem to be doing the same here as you have done before with other topics - latched onto one voice which isn't mainstream and repeated what that voice says as if it is the truth whilst dismissing the main stream view.
I am trying to get to the bottom of why he doesn't seem to be taking into account that statistically people are less likely to become severely ill or die if vaccinated.

SteveH

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4645 on: September 26, 2021, 05:17:02 PM »
I wonder what he would say about what Sarah Gilbert said the other day, that the virus will become less virulent over time and end up like a cold.
Is it the case that most viruses become more deadly (as with SARS Cov2) before becoming less deadly?
Viruses tend to become less serious because it's in their interest to. They want to propagate themselves, and they can't do that very well if they kill their victims in short order. The ideal for them is to be easily transmissible by droplet infection, and to make their victims cough and sneeze, so that they spread the virus, but not become so ill that they isolate themselves. Also, we will be putting huge effort into countering a serious illness, whereas if it's no worse that a cold, we won't bother so much. A virus like the one in the drama series "Survivors", which killed over 99.9% of the world's population in a few weeks, would be a disaster on its own terms, as, once it had run its course, it would have nowhere to go.
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Robbie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4646 on: September 26, 2021, 05:23:02 PM »
Comment from a teacher friend on their experience of anti vax protestors at school


'Anti vaccine protestors are now targeting schools! 😡 We had a load of them today, set up outside the school, playing loud music and shouting. Lessons were interrupted. We could smell the cannabis wafting up to the classrooms. They then caused a major disturbance as all the pupils gathered around instead of dispersing safely. The whole school at once! Our pupils see it as a novelty and were filming and laughing. Teachers trying to disperse pupils on a very, very busy main road were then targeted for not allowing pupils to enter into discussion. 😂😂😂😡😡😡Disgusting and wrong on every level!!! 😡😡😡😡'

She could have sat down with them, shared a joint and discussed - for 79 hours.


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Maeght

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4647 on: September 26, 2021, 06:28:37 PM »
I am trying to get to the bottom of why he doesn't seem to be taking into account that statistically people are less likely to become severely ill or die if vaccinated.

Ii hasn't come across to me at least that you are questioning what he is saying but rather that you are repeating it as fact. If I'm wrong on that then I apologise, but that's how it seems.

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4648 on: September 27, 2021, 12:26:19 AM »
Ii hasn't come across to me at least that you are questioning what he is saying but rather that you are repeating it as fact. If I'm wrong on that then I apologise, but that's how it seems.
My recent posts may have come across as repeating it as fact because doing so helps to consolidate it in my mind. I have used ambiguous words sometimes, eg 'Geert is asserting/believes' to indicate that I am questioning it. But at times I do sway towards believing it, other times not.

SteveH

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