Coronavirus

[Spud]

https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/08/23/geert-vanden-bossche-is-back-and-still-blaming-vaccines-for-covid-19-variants/

Phew thank goodness most of that link is comments... I was thinking the article would take weeks to read.
It's interesting - I've read down to where he quotes part of this essay by GVB.
That essay contains a question I was wondering if Geert addresses in #4644. He says,
"But why should one bother about antigenic variants and enhanced viral infectiousness when vaccines still largely protect vaccinees from (severe) disease and hospitalization?"
He answers:

"A higher level of antigenic variation and associated infectiousness renders the C-19 vaccines less efficient in containing the infection."
OK.
"This currently leads to breakthrough infections in the vast majority of vaccinees..."
Really, Geert? Evidence s'il vous plait.
"...whereas breakthrough disease cases are now on the rise too."
Again, any evidence available?
"...On the other hand..." Then GVB acknowledges that the unvaccinated are suffering more morbidity since mass vaccination, but predicts that once that reservoir is used up, severe illness in people with breakthrough cases will increase.

I then skipped to the end of your article, Steve. It misunderstands what GVB says about vaccines driving the evolution of variants. It refers to the fact that the variants were detected before vaccination started. But GVB is not saying that they arose because of mass vaccination. He is saying that because the vaccines neutralize the old variants but sometimes don't neutralize the more infectious ones, the more infectious ones become dominant.

[SteveH]

I can actually, I think, see his concern: The viruses that are resistant to the vaccine will have the field to themselves. However, I don't generally take the opinions of one or two mavericks when the vast majority of scientists in the relevant field disagree.

[Maeght]

I can actually, I think, see his concern: The viruses that are resistant to the vaccine will have the field to themselves. However, I don't generally take the opinions of one or two mavericks when the vast majority of scientists in the relevant field disagree.

That's how I feel too.

[jeremyp]

Those of you following the stats will know that we have deaths in the range of 100-200 per day at the moment which is pretty bad but nothing like the peaks.

In the USA, they are currently running at 2,000 deaths per day. Here's an animation that explains why it is so bad there:

https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june

tl;dw politics

[SteveH]

Not a horse de-wormer.

[ekim]

Neigh, lad.

[jeremyp]

Not a horse de-wormer.

How do you know? Has anybody tried deworming horses with it?

[Spud]

Those of you following the stats will know that we have deaths in the range of 100-200 per day at the moment which is pretty bad but nothing like the peaks.

In the USA, they are currently running at 2,000 deaths per day. Here's an animation that explains why it is so bad there:

https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june

tl;dw politics

There definitely seems to be a correlation in some countries between low vaccine take-up and high morbidity and mortality. But India has low cases yet only 17% are fully vaccinated.

[ad_orientem]

There definitely seems to be a correlation in some countries between low vaccine take-up and high morbidity and mortality. But India has low cases yet only 17% are fully vaccinated.

That's because India has high numbers of unreported cases.

[SteveH]

There definitely seems to be a correlation in some countries between low vaccine take-up and high morbidity and mortality. But India has low cases yet only 17% are fully vaccinated.

As well as what a-o said, it is typical of pandemics to be patchy: some areas get off lightly.

[Sriram]

That's because India has high numbers of unreported cases.

When the cases were soaring in April-May 21 no one said the figures were wrong.... 

[Nearly Sane]

When the cases were soaring in April-May 21 no one said the figures were wrong....

http://www.religionethics.co.uk/index.php?topic=17238.4225

[SusanDoris]

I am very pleased to say that this morning I have had my flu jab and my booster vaccine.

[jeremyp]

When the cases were soaring in April-May 21 no one said the figures were wrong....

Yes they did. More or Less did a segment on it and they suggested that it was likely that Indian actual cases exceeded all reported cases world wide at the time - that includes those reported by India.

[SteveH]

Gillian McKeith - who, unsurprisingly, is an anti-vaccinator - makes an idiot of herself again.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/gillian-mckeith-spectacularly-misunderstood-a-funeral-home-s-pro-vax-advert/ar-AAP7j4l?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

[jeremyp]

Gillian McKeith - who, unsurprisingly, is an anti-vaccinator - makes an idiot of herself again.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/gillian-mckeith-spectacularly-misunderstood-a-funeral-home-s-pro-vax-advert/ar-AAP7j4l?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

I wanted to say that her response to the ad doesn't make her an anti-vaxer. I might say "this funeral director knows something" i.e. not getting vaccinated increases his business.

Sadly, I did my due diligence by reading some of her tweets, and it became obvious that my charitable interpretation doesn't fly. She is an anti-vaxer.

[Udayana]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/12/covid-response-one-of-uks-worst-ever-public-health-failures

"Britain’s early handling of the coronavirus pandemic was one of the worst public health failures in UK history, with ministers and scientists taking a “fatalistic” approach that exacerbated the death toll, a landmark inquiry has found.

“Groupthink”, evidence of British exceptionalism and a deliberately “slow and gradualist” approach meant the UK fared “significantly worse” than other countries, according to the 151-page “Coronavirus: lessons learned to date” report led by two former Conservative ministers."

As if we hadn't known all along!

[Aruntraveller]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/12/covid-response-one-of-uks-worst-ever-public-health-failures

"Britain’s early handling of the coronavirus pandemic was one of the worst public health failures in UK history, with ministers and scientists taking a “fatalistic” approach that exacerbated the death toll, a landmark inquiry has found.

“Groupthink”, evidence of British exceptionalism and a deliberately “slow and gradualist” approach meant the UK fared “significantly worse” than other countries, according to the 151-page “Coronavirus: lessons learned to date” report led by two former Conservative ministers."

As if we hadn't known all along!

Sorry always seems to be the hardest word.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/stephen-barclay-refuses-apologise-covid-pandemic-response-government-report-b960000.html

Heartless, uncaring, self serving bastards.

[Aruntraveller]

Another random thought or two.

Boris Johnson is on holiday in Marbella.

This damning report on the governments response to Covid is released.

Do you still believe in coincidences?

I fucking don't.

[Spud]

I had a thought or two as well, last week. The news said there could be 60,000 deaths from Flu this winter. The reasoning was that because there wasn't enough flu circulating last year, due to lockdown, people will now be more susceptible to it. I take this to mean that not enough of those with good innate immunity have been infected, and acquired natural immunity to it, in order to provide a level of herd immunity. Doesn't this also apply to Sars covid-19, in that because we didn't allow it to circulate to an extent, in healthy and young people, there were more deaths later on? This did seem to be the case following the extensive lockdowns of 2020, when the world has experienced two large spikes this year caused by variants of concern.

[ad_orientem]

I had a thought or two as well, last week. The news said there could be 60,000 deaths from Flu this winter. The reasoning was that because there wasn't enough flu circulating last year, due to lockdown, people will now be more susceptible to it. I take this to mean that not enough of those with good innate immunity have been infected, and acquired natural immunity to it, in order to provide a level of herd immunity. Doesn't this also apply to Sars covid-19, in that because we didn't allow it to circulate to an extent, in healthy and young people, there were more deaths later on? This did seem to be the case following the extensive lockdowns of 2020, when the world has experienced two large spikes this year caused by variants of concern.

As I understand it the innate immune system's effectiveness isn't dependent upon exposure.

[Udayana]

I had a thought or two as well, last week. The news said there could be 60,000 deaths from Flu this winter. The reasoning was that because there wasn't enough flu circulating last year, due to lockdown, people will now be more susceptible to it. I take this to mean that not enough of those with good innate immunity have been infected, and acquired natural immunity to it, in order to provide a level of herd immunity. Doesn't this also apply to Sars covid-19, in that because we didn't allow it to circulate to an extent, in healthy and young people, there were more deaths later on? This did seem to be the case following the extensive lockdowns of 2020, when the world has experienced two large spikes this year caused by variants of concern.

The idea that there could be serious flu outbreaks is speculation and by no means certain. This article explores some of the issues:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2783644

If anything the problem, should there be one, will be due to timing - in a normal year the exposure to flu spreads gradually so we don't have an sudden unexpected demand on hospital resources - as we might have if everyone is exposed at the same time due to lifting of distancing measures. This is different to covid which spreads faster.

In any case the main message is to take advantage of the flu vaccine as well as the covid.
 

[Spud]

As I understand it the innate immune system's effectiveness isn't dependent upon exposure.

Yes, I meant that people with good innate immunity were not exposed to the wild type. If they had been, their innate, non-specific antibodies would have neutralized not only the wild type but also mutated strains, which would then only be able to circulate in low levels. Since this didn't happen, more infectious variants were able to become dominant, causing a higher infectious pressure, which the innate immunity of healthy people finds harder to deal with.

[ad_orientem]

Yes, I meant that people with good innate immunity were not exposed to the wild type. If they had been, their innate, non-specific antibodies would have neutralized not only the wild type but also mutated strains, which would then only be able to circulate in low levels. Since this didn't happen, more infectious variants were able to become dominant, causing a higher infectious pressure, which the innate immunity of healthy people finds harder to deal with.

As has been said before, the more people have the virus, the more likely it is to mutate, maybe into more infectious forms. This still sounds like the stuff from that vet who's been debunked.

[Spud]

As has been said before, the more people have the virus, the more likely it is to mutate, maybe into more infectious forms. This still sounds like the stuff from that vet who's been debunked.

Sure - but I'm also talking about what the person in the Spanish researchers' article in Udayana's link says, that "the absence of circulation of certain pathogens can lead to a decrease in herd immunity against them. This can promote the rise of more serious, longer-lasting epidemics that start sooner".
I wondered whether "certain pathogens" includes Covid 19.