Coronavirus

[Spud]

There you are then. Vaccination works.

Yes it does, but in principle that is only if it blocks transmission and is done well before exposure to the virus.
Your link in #4936 discusses the proportions of mortality in vaxed and unvaxed, and I am aware of this as I have followed the Vaccination Surveillance reports a bit. In response I would mention that if mass vaccination has accelerated the spread of "more infectious variants" due to the above principle not being followed, then of course, the unvaxed will be more at risk. If you say "well they should get the vaccine", that won't really do. It's like new cars having extra bright headlights and blinding drivers of older cars which don't have tinted windscreens. It's a bit off to expect them to buy a new car with a tinted windscreen or expensive tinted glasses, especially when that brightness would never have been legal 20 years ago.
But I'm not 100% convinced that mass vaccination has done this, so the jury is still out for me.
If true, then it means that we should only vaccinate those most at risk. If we vaccinated everyone for flu, during the flu season, would that be wise?

[Spud]

The antibodies block the virus spike protein from attaching to the ACE2  receptors. From what I've read, Omicron still needs to attach to ACE2 receptors but unlike earlier variants it favours a different method of cell entry (Endocytosis) but the reduced vaccine protection is to do with the changes in the virus spike protein rather than the method of entering cells. The different entry method does mean it is more infectious (as it doesn't require the presence of the TMPR552 protease), more of an upper respiratory disease (for the same reason) and does less damage to lungs (less bunching of infected cells - syncytia).

Thanks - I would like to read more about why it does less damage to the lungs.

[Udayana]

Thanks - I would like to read more about why it does less damage to the lungs.

You could try:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34951565/

Full text at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8774049/

Though maybe Maeght has a different one.

[Maeght]

Thanks - I would like to read more about why it does less damage to the lungs.

There are various papers such as the one linked to by Udayana (thanks for that) but this YouTube video explains things very well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDu-PHrgliQ&ab_channel=DrbeenMedicalLectures

[Spud]

drbeen is good- thank you.  Thanks for the paper, Uday.

[Aruntraveller]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/scientists-plead-caution-covid-restrictions-lifted-england

Johnson, has never, of course, followed the old saying "let caution be your watchword" in the whole of his life. So why should he apply it to a pesky virus?

The quote that jumped out at me from this was:

 

This point was backed by virologist Prof Lawrence Young of Warwick University. “People seem to think there has been a linear evolution of the virus from Alpha to Beta to Delta to Omicron,” he told the Observer. “But that is simply not the case. The idea that virus variants will continue to get milder is wrong. A new one could turn out to be even more pathogenic than the Delta variant, for example.”

[Maeght]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/scientists-plead-caution-covid-restrictions-lifted-england

Johnson, has never, of course, followed the old saying "let caution be your watchword" in the whole of his life. So why should he apply it to a pesky virus?

The quote that jumped out at me from this was:

The idea that viruses always mutate to be milder is a myth.

[jeremyp]

The idea that viruses always mutate to be milder is a myth.

When it's human beings you infect, being mild is a very good evolutionary trait. We will see mutations that make the virus milder and we'll see mutations that make it more dangerous, but we'll stamp out the dangerous ones and ignore the mild ones.

[Maeght]

When it's human beings you infect, being mild is a very good evolutionary trait. We will see mutations that make the virus milder and we'll see mutations that make it more dangerous, but we'll stamp out the dangerous ones and ignore the mild ones.

Only to a point. A virus which kills everyone before they can pass it on won't last long but beyond that there isn't much selective pressure to make a milder variant become dominant surely. The Prof from Imperial (who's name escaped me) was on the radio recently and said 'they' (his team i guess) had discussed this and concluded that there is no ruke that viruses inevitably become milder. It can happenn but doesn't necessarily happen he said.

[jeremyp]

Only to a point. A virus which kills everyone before they can pass it on won't last long but beyond that there isn't much selective pressure to make a milder variant become dominant surely. The Prof from Imperial (who's name escaped me) was on the radio recently and said 'they' (his team i guess) had discussed this and concluded that there is no ruke that viruses inevitably become milder. It can happenn but doesn't necessarily happen he said.

I didn't say it was inevitable, I said it's a good evolutionary trait.

[Maeght]

I didn't say it was inevitable, I said it's a good evolutionary trait.

No, you didn't, but some do. I was making a general point.

[Aruntraveller]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60453566

Queen tests positive for Covid.

[SteveH]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60453566

Queen tests positive for Covid.

My thoughts are with Brian, Roger and the other one.

[Nearly Sane]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60453566

Queen tests positive for Covid.

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1495409472440840192?t=sqCifIegdsVytkO7_iM6bw&s=19

[jeremyp]

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1495409472440840192?t=sqCifIegdsVytkO7_iM6bw&s=19

What I don't understand is why the papers are making such a fuss over the fact that the Queen is continuing with light duties. I tested positive last week and I'm continuing with all my duties, even though I ran out of milk to put in my coffee on Saturday and I couldn't pop down to the corner shop to get more. Not a hint of my tireless dedication from the Daily Mail.

Admittedly all my duties involve sitting in front of a computer screen and typing things in to a keyboard.

[Maeght]

drbeen is good- thank you.  Thanks for the paper, Uday.

Thought this was interesting Spud. Talks about how Omincron seems to be more susceptible to innate immunity than Delta etc

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/omicrons-surprising-anatomy-explains-why-it-is-wildly-contagious/

[Spud]

Thought this was interesting Spud. Talks about how Omincron seems to be more susceptible to innate immunity than Delta etc

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/omicrons-surprising-anatomy-explains-why-it-is-wildly-contagious/

Thanks Maeght, was going to bring this up actually because Geert's theory is that if our naturally acquired and vaccine-generated immunity is now ineffective against omicron, then they no longer out-compete our innate antibodies, allowing the latter to bind better to and neutralize it. Will read your link.

[Spud]

Thought this was interesting Spud. Talks about how Omincron seems to be more susceptible to innate immunity than Delta etc

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/omicrons-surprising-anatomy-explains-why-it-is-wildly-contagious/

Thank you, very clear and informative.

[Aruntraveller]

...

[Nearly Sane]

Ooh dear


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60698453

[jeremyp]

Ooh dear


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60698453

It looks like England is on an uptick too.

[Nearly Sane]

It looks like England is on an uptick too.

Indeed


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60872687

[Aruntraveller]

Bloody big uptick.

[Spud]

But in terms of symptoms and severity, how bad is it compared with seasonal flu, colds etc?

[Aruntraveller]

But in terms of symptoms and severity, how bad is it compared with seasonal flu, colds etc?

Hard to do a direct comparison but 2018 was one of the worst years for Flu in recent times and we topped out at 30,000 deaths for the year (that figure doesn't include Scotland or N.Ireland so add a bit on)

We are currently running at 160 - 170 deaths a day.

If that doesn't improve we are on course for around 60,000 deaths this year, which in terms of severity is pretty bad.

Also, much more capacity is taken up in hospitals with those that are seriously affected but don't die, and the knock-on effects that has for other illnesses with longer waiting times due to the effects of the pandemic and now due to the lack of staff because they are also off work with Covid.

So still a lot fucking worse.

Still, I am reassured it is all going to be ok because my pal Saj has got the figures under constant review.