Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 239345 times)

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4975 on: March 25, 2022, 07:19:52 PM »
We are currently running at 160 - 170 deaths a day.
Apparently a lot of these do not die from Covid, though - they happen to test positive while in hospital with other illnesses?

Aruntraveller

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4976 on: March 25, 2022, 07:34:35 PM »
Apparently a lot of these do not die from Covid, though - they happen to test positive while in hospital with other illnesses?

So some people assert. Others will assert that the figures are actually underrepresented. I think it is probably as accurate as you are going to get them.

If some people are determined to see it as a mild virus, nothing to see here, move along now, then there's not a lot that will persuade them otherwise and the government is clearly of that mindset. So we've all got our FREEDOM to go out and infect who we want without worrying about the consequences.

I love libertarian capitalism.

Fucking love it.
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Maeght

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4977 on: March 25, 2022, 07:41:52 PM »
Apparently a lot of these do not die from Covid, though - they happen to test positive while in hospital with other illnesses?

If you look at the numbers who died with Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificate i wouldn't say 'a lot do not die from Covid'.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

Udayana

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4978 on: March 27, 2022, 10:21:07 AM »
Fauci on Sophie Raworth's Sunday Morning programme

- I can't see that there's much else to say.

Ah, but I was so much older then ... I'm younger than that now

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4979 on: March 27, 2022, 10:44:43 AM »
If you look at the numbers who died with Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificate i wouldn't say 'a lot do not die from Covid'.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
Were they symptomatic, though? As far as I know,a doctor has to mention covid on the certificate even if they are asymptomatic, though I might be wrong.

Maeght

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4980 on: March 27, 2022, 02:35:37 PM »
Were they symptomatic, though? As far as I know,a doctor has to mention covid on the certificate even if they are asymptomatic, though I might be wrong.

I think they have to put anything on the death certificate which they think contributed to the person's death, nothing more than that.

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4981 on: March 28, 2022, 08:23:42 PM »
Hard to do a direct comparison but 2018 was one of the worst years for Flu in recent times and we topped out at 30,000 deaths for the year (that figure doesn't include Scotland or N.Ireland so add a bit on)

We are currently running at 160 - 170 deaths a day.

If that doesn't improve we are on course for around 60,000 deaths this year, which in terms of severity is pretty bad.

Also, much more capacity is taken up in hospitals with those that are seriously affected but don't die, and the knock-on effects that has for other illnesses with longer waiting times due to the effects of the pandemic and now due to the lack of staff because they are also off work with Covid.

So still a lot fucking worse.

Still, I am reassured it is all going to be ok because my pal Saj has got the figures under constant review.  ::)
Are we seeing lower numbers of Influenza infections than usual? That would make the above yearly covid figure less of a worry.
I think we will be told if the NHS begins to be overstretched. The objective of any measures they said was to flatten the curve, thus allowing the health service to help people recover and develop immunity.
That said, I read that there is currently negative efficacy for the vaccines with regard to infection rate. The more cases of infection, the higher the risk of severe illness, so there may come a point where infection prevention measures are needed again. More mass vaccination of healthy people may again only lead to short term positive efficacy. I think we are on the right track without that.

Aruntraveller

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4982 on: March 29, 2022, 11:04:50 AM »
Are we seeing lower numbers of Influenza infections than usual? That would make the above yearly covid figure less of a worry.
I think we will be told if the NHS begins to be overstretched. The objective of any measures they said was to flatten the curve, thus allowing the health service to help people recover and develop immunity.
That said, I read that there is currently negative efficacy for the vaccines with regard to infection rate. The more cases of infection, the higher the risk of severe illness, so there may come a point where infection prevention measures are needed again. More mass vaccination of healthy people may again only lead to short term positive efficacy. I think we are on the right track without that.

Hurrah for FREEDOM.

Down with CARING.

Let's all get PISSED.

Let's ignore the DEATHS, the LIES, the stinking CORRUPTION.

INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM trumps COLLECTIVE RESPONSIBILITY in this Brave New World.

"Carry on Infecting."

A much-underrated offering in the oeuvre of Peter Rogers.
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Udayana

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4983 on: March 29, 2022, 12:37:46 PM »
Are we seeing lower numbers of Influenza infections than usual? That would make the above yearly covid figure less of a worry.
I think we will be told if the NHS begins to be overstretched. The objective of any measures they said was to flatten the curve, thus allowing the health service to help people recover and develop immunity.
That said, I read that there is currently negative efficacy for the vaccines with regard to infection rate. The more cases of infection, the higher the risk of severe illness, so there may come a point where infection prevention measures are needed again. More mass vaccination of healthy people may again only lead to short term positive efficacy. I think we are on the right track without that.

hmm.. an interesting kind of post that I have been noticing on the odd thread here or there on the forum ...

Regression to the mean is a well known concept in statistics ... I propose we could label this kind of argument as "regression to bollocks" ?

Ah, but I was so much older then ... I'm younger than that now

Aruntraveller

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4984 on: March 30, 2022, 09:02:27 PM »
Good article that needs serious consideration by the "it's all over" brigade and "let's get back to normal" morons.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/30/uk-near-record-covid-cases-three-myths-omicron-pandemic
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4985 on: March 31, 2022, 09:10:39 AM »
Good article that needs serious consideration by the "it's all over" brigade and "let's get back to normal" morons.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/30/uk-near-record-covid-cases-three-myths-omicron-pandemic
Re myth 1, I note that it says the NHS is now under considerable strain. So this might indicate reintroducing infection prevention measures. Also it says that about half of hospital admissions with covid were primarily admitted for something else.
Re myth 2, I think Omicron is milder: as we have discussed, it doesn't infect the lung as easily as previous variants. Whether it is 'evolving to become milder' is to do with Omicron springing from a much earlier variant and whether it jumped to animals in the process, which is not known for certain. There is also the immune response to Omicron, which may be more effective (as a result of vaccinal antibodies not outcompeting innate IgM so much), and thus contribute to the reduced severity of Omicron.
Re myth 3, vaccination across all age groups has driven immune escape, imo. Some good news, to consider: naturally acquired immunity protects well against severe disease and death in Omicron patients
« Last Edit: March 31, 2022, 09:18:21 AM by Spud »

Aruntraveller

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4986 on: March 31, 2022, 09:35:19 AM »
Quote
I think Omicron is milder less severe: as we have discussed, it doesn't infect the lung as easily as previous variants. Whether it is 'evolving to become milder' is to do with Omicron springing from a much earlier variant and whether it jumped to animals in the process, which is not known for certain. Th

As the article makes clear the variants do not all follow a linear development, they do not stem from the preceding variant necessarily, therefore we should not be assuming that all future variants will be less severe. One of the ways to lessen the possibility of variants is to limit infection.

Do you see any indication within our current government's thinking that they are in the least bit interested in limiting infection?

Do you see the majority of the public doing anything to limit infection?

We are getting the response badly wrong here.

Immune escape is happening largely because we are allowing the infection rate to soar and doing fuck all about it.


Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4987 on: March 31, 2022, 04:46:13 PM »
As the article makes clear the variants do not all follow a linear development, they do not stem from the preceding variant necessarily, therefore we should not be assuming that all future variants will be less severe. One of the ways to lessen the possibility of variants is to limit infection.

Do you see any indication within our current government's thinking that they are in the least bit interested in limiting infection?

Do you see the majority of the public doing anything to limit infection?

We are getting the response badly wrong here.
I think the intention of the government and public was to limit infection by means of mass vaccination, but unfortunately that seems to be backfiring - see below.

Quote
Immune escape is happening largely because we are allowing the infection rate to soar and doing fuck all about it.
(Disclaimer: as far as I am concerned, the following is theory, but makes sense enough that I decided not to be vaccinated).

Immune escape is happening because the majority of people have vaccine-elicited antibodies that cannot themselves prevent infection any longer, since they are designed to stick to the spike protein, which has a high mutation rate; they are nonetheless still produced by B cells when a vaccinated person is exposed to a new variant, they stick to the virus more readily than the innate antibodies, the first line of defense, thus out-competing the latter and rendering that person more prone to infection.

Had we vaccinated only the vulnerable groups, there would not have been such high surges of anti-spike antibodies in the population that only viruses with mutated spike protein could survive.

Healthy people who got sick and recovered would have developed antibodies not just to the spike protein but to other proteins in the virus that do not mutate (ie they are 'conserved'). This would have reduced the transmission of more highly infectious variants, so that they took much longer to become dominant, which would result in slowing of the infection rate and the virus becoming endemic.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2022, 04:49:10 PM by Spud »

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4988 on: March 31, 2022, 04:54:14 PM »
I think the intention of the government and public was to limit infection by means of mass vaccination,
The main reason for vaccination was to reduce disease severity, rather than infections, so that even if people are becoming infected they will have milder symptoms, are less likely to be hospitalised and far less likely to die.

but unfortunately that seems to be backfiring - see below.
Non-sense, the vaccination programme has worked exceptionally well. Just imagine the numbers of deaths we'd have had without the vaccination programme, noting that vaccination does also reduce (but not eliminate) transmissibility, likelihood of infection and, critically, the number of viral replication events. Mutations, that may drive variants of concern are random events - the more replication of the virus the greater the likelihood of mutations and therefore the greater the likelihood of variants of concern.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4989 on: March 31, 2022, 04:56:22 PM »
Healthy people who got sick and recovered ...
I'll stop you right there - without vaccination we'd have had far, far more healthy people who got sick and did not recover - in other words they died.

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4990 on: March 31, 2022, 06:59:12 PM »
I'll stop you right there - without vaccination we'd have had far, far more healthy people who got sick and did not recover - in other words they died.
No - according to the study from the US, 94%(?) of mortality was in people with co-morbidities.

Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4991 on: March 31, 2022, 07:15:41 PM »
The main reason for vaccination was to reduce disease severity, rather than infections, so that even if people are becoming infected they will have milder symptoms, are less likely to be hospitalised and far less likely to die.
Non-sense, the vaccination programme has worked exceptionally well. Just imagine the numbers of deaths we'd have had without the vaccination programme, noting that vaccination does also reduce (but not eliminate) transmissibility, likelihood of infection and, critically, the number of viral replication events. Mutations, that may drive variants of concern are random events - the more replication of the virus the greater the likelihood of mutations and therefore the greater the likelihood of variants of concern.
The beneft from the vaccines is temporary.

Maeght

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4992 on: March 31, 2022, 07:35:35 PM »
No - according to the study from the US, 94%(?) of mortality was in people with co-morbidities.

What study?

Aruntraveller

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4993 on: March 31, 2022, 07:40:54 PM »
What study?

These are the figures he is referring to. As usual, it is more complex than those who adopt tin foil wish to admit. Scrub that last bit - aren't bright enough to understand.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-comorbidities-coviddeaths-idUSL1N2TU22X
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Maeght

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4994 on: March 31, 2022, 07:47:28 PM »
These are the figures he is referring to. As usual, it is more complex than those who adopt tin foil wish to admit. Scrub that last bit - aren't bright enough to understand.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-comorbidities-coviddeaths-idUSL1N2TU22X

Thanks. Agree with your comment.

Maeght

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4995 on: March 31, 2022, 07:57:36 PM »
I think the intention of the government and public was to limit infection by means of mass vaccination, but unfortunately that seems to be backfiring - see below.
(Disclaimer: as far as I am concerned, the following is theory, but makes sense enough that I decided not to be vaccinated).

Immune escape is happening because the majority of people have vaccine-elicited antibodies that cannot themselves prevent infection any longer, since they are designed to stick to the spike protein, which has a high mutation rate; they are nonetheless still produced by B cells when a vaccinated person is exposed to a new variant, they stick to the virus more readily than the innate antibodies, the first line of defense, thus out-competing the latter and rendering that person more prone to infection.

Had we vaccinated only the vulnerable groups, there would not have been such high surges of anti-spike antibodies in the population that only viruses with mutated spike protein could survive.

Healthy people who got sick and recovered would have developed antibodies not just to the spike protein but to other proteins in the virus that do not mutate (ie they are 'conserved'). This would have reduced the transmission of more highly infectious variants, so that they took much longer to become dominant, which would result in slowing of the infection rate and the virus becoming endemic.

So according to your 'theory' reinfections should be lower in unvaccinated people, yes?

According to this paper the reverse is true. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.19.22271112v1.full

'Omicron BA.2 reinfections after either Delta or BA.1 initial infections, were mainly observed among young individuals below the age of 30 and the majority of these cases were not vaccinated, further emphasizing the enhanced immunity obtained by the combination of vaccination and infection compared to infection induced immunity only. '

Comments?

Maeght

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4996 on: March 31, 2022, 08:25:18 PM »
I think the intention of the government and public was to limit infection by means of mass vaccination, but unfortunately that seems to be backfiring - see below.
(Disclaimer: as far as I am concerned, the following is theory, but makes sense enough that I decided not to be vaccinated).

Immune escape is happening because the majority of people have vaccine-elicited antibodies that cannot themselves prevent infection any longer, since they are designed to stick to the spike protein, which has a high mutation rate; they are nonetheless still produced by B cells when a vaccinated person is exposed to a new variant, they stick to the virus more readily than the innate antibodies, the first line of defense, thus out-competing the latter and rendering that person more prone to infection.

Had we vaccinated only the vulnerable groups, there would not have been such high surges of anti-spike antibodies in the population that only viruses with mutated spike protein could survive.

Healthy people who got sick and recovered would have developed antibodies not just to the spike protein but to other proteins in the virus that do not mutate (ie they are 'conserved'). This would have reduced the transmission of more highly infectious variants, so that they took much longer to become dominant, which would result in slowing of the infection rate and the virus becoming endemic.

What are you referring to when you say innate antibodies?

Edit; okay Natural Antibodies - https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2017.00872/full Have discussed this before a while back but had forgotten!
« Last Edit: March 31, 2022, 08:40:24 PM by Maeght »

Nearly Sane

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4997 on: April 01, 2022, 10:17:53 AM »
Interesting paper on the effect of Covid measures on flu variants

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29402-5

jeremyp

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4998 on: April 01, 2022, 03:20:30 PM »
This is not good

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60953501

one person in thirteen has coronavirus.
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Spud

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #4999 on: April 01, 2022, 06:50:05 PM »
So according to your 'theory' reinfections should be lower in unvaccinated people, yes?

According to this paper the reverse is true. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.19.22271112v1.full

'Omicron BA.2 reinfections after either Delta or BA.1 initial infections, were mainly observed among young individuals below the age of 30 and the majority of these cases were not vaccinated, further emphasizing the enhanced immunity obtained by the combination of vaccination and infection compared to infection induced immunity only. '

Comments?
The two positive samples of participants had to be between 20 and 60 days apart. According to Geert's talks a year ago, this is the time after the initial infection is cleared during which a suboptimal immune response occurs - short-lived antibodies specific to the antigen. These have higher affinity to the virus than innate antibodies - thus preventing the latter from binding if the person is re-exposed during this 2 month period - but do not neutralize the virus, so that it can re-infect the person.
The first infection is likely to be mild, since the innate antibodies are not inhibited as they are in the reinfection, which is likely to be more symptomatic.
After the reinfection, longer lasting immunity is built up.
The high infectiousness of Omicron makes it much more likely that a person will be re-exposed in this way.