Another indy poll.....

[Anchorman]

 ...and nothing to do with Scotland! Says something about the state of the less-than-united-kingdom, though. https://nation.cymru/news/half-of-conservative-voters-in-england-support-english-independence-poll/?fbclid=IwAR30QZZ9rsRTzD8TKiJGYFZREpTRhiY1niraAuPcLWXpYegu_i0delFl24g

[Aruntraveller]

With don’t knows and those who refused to answer removed, the poll shown that overall 35% of people in England now favour English independence.

I don't even know how to interpret that quote. So the figure is actually lower?

I'm pleasantly surprised given the press' attitude in England, I would have thought they would have pushed the figure much higher.

[ProfessorDavey]

I don't even know how to interpret that quote. So the figure is actually lower?

I'm pleasantly surprised given the press' attitude in England, I would have thought they would have pushed the figure much higher.

It also says the following:

'With don’t knows and those who refused to answer removed, the poll shown that overall 35% of people in England now favour English independence.' (my emphasis).

Without knowing what proportion cared enough to have a view it is difficult to interpret this poll at all.

I'd also like to see the actual question - as this was commissioned by YesCymru you may have a questions designed to elicit a pro-independence response.

I'll see if I can find more details.

[ProfessorDavey]

OK - so actually only 27% actually replied 'yes' once don't knows and refused to answer are factored in.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/9ibhldbfuq/YesCymru_Results_200618_EnglandPoll_IndependenceW.pdf

Also this is the question:

'If there was a referendum held tomorrow on England becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote?
Should England be an independent country?'

Problem is that there is no context - independent from whom? Remember this poll was only conducted in England and I suspect there are plenty of people living in England who conflate England, Britain and UK - so this could be read as Britain (or UK becoming independent) - not sure from whom, but as Leave voters were massively more in favour then perhaps there is a rump of people thinking Britain isn't independent because of the EU and therefore polling 'yes' in a kind of EU-ref re-run.

I think without clarity on context that England does not equal Britain or UK and that independence in this context means independent from Scotland, Wales and NI then the question is confusing. Now perhaps this is just cock-up, but I suspect perhaps not. No doubt YESCymru are well aware that posing this question without context will have plenty of people equating independent England with independent Britain/UK.

[Nearly Sane]

It also says the following:

'With don’t knows and those who refused to answer removed, the poll shown that overall 35% of people in England now favour English independence.' (my emphasis).

Without knowing what proportion cared enough to have a view it is difficult to interpret this poll at all.

I'd also like to see the actual question - as this was commissioned by YesCymru you may have a questions designed to elicit a pro-independence response.

I'll see if I can find more details.

Why in reply to Trent's post where he quotes

'With don’t knows and those who refused to answer removed[/i], the poll shown that overall 35% of people in England now favour English independence.'

Did you write 'it also says'
With don’t knows and those who refused to answer removed[/i], the poll shown that overall 35% of people in England now favour English independence.

[ProfessorDavey]

Why in reply to Trent's post where he quotes

'With don’t knows and those who refused to answer removed[/i], the poll shown that overall 35% of people in England now favour English independence.'

Did you write 'it also says'
With don’t knows and those who refused to answer removed[/i], the poll shown that overall 35% of people in England now favour English independence.

I emphasised the key point about the don't knows and refused - if these were just 2% of respondents then the interpretation would be very different to the situation if they were 22% (as was actually the case).

And I actually went on to address Trent and my issue by providing the actually data - so stop being so knit picking NS.

[Nearly Sane]

I emphasised the key point about the don't knows and refused - if these were just 2% of respondents then the interpretation would be very different to the situation if they were 22% (as was actually the case).

And I actually went on to address Trent and my issue by providing the actually data - so stop being so knit picking NS.

So why did you do it?

[ProfessorDavey]

So why did you do it?

Note to self - thinking along the same lines as Trent and adding to what he said.

And I followed through by actually answering the question Trent posed, namely:

'I don't even know how to interpret that quote. So the figure is actually lower?'

NS you do seem to delight in derailing threads by pointless nitpicking.

Maybe we can actually get back to discussing the poll and its significance or otherwise.

[Nearly Sane]

Note to self - thinking along the same lines as Trent and adding to what he said.

And I followed through by actually answering the question Trent posed, namely:

[/i]'I don't even know how to interpret that quote. So the figure is actually lower?'[/i]

NS you do seem to delight in derailing threads by pointless nitpicking.

Maybe we can actually get back to discussing the poll and its significance or otherwise.

it wouldn't be a derail if you had just explained why. I have no idea when you haven't wanted to answer a simple question.

As to the survey, i think actually the headline figure is just as if not more significant  and I'm with Trent, I am a bit surprised that the number isn't a bit  higher. Given the figure of those expressing a view is 65/35 against I can't see why Anchorman thinks it's a particularly interesting poll

[ProfessorDavey]

As to the survey, i think actually the headline figure is just as if not more significant  and I'm with Trent, I am a bit surprised that the number isn't a bit  higher. Given the figure of those expressing a view is 65/35 against I can't see why Anchorman thinks it's a particularly interesting poll

What about the issue I raised about the question - given that this was commissioned by YESCymru, but is neither a poll about Welsh independence, nor even conducted in Wales it sets alarm bells ringing in my mind.

I think this is a classic poll that is somewhat disingenuously phrased and without context with the aim of gaining a desired answer - in this case that people want English independence, which de facto means Welsh independence.

As I pointed out I think asking English people how you'd vote in a hypothetical referendum with the question: Should England be an independent country? - I suspect a proportion will vote 'yes' on the basis that they conflate England with Britain or UK and really mean that the UK is and should be an independent country.

A bit sneaky I suspect - but still didn't really attain the answer that YESCymru probably wanted, with only 27% of respondents answering 'Yes' to English independence, and by inference Welsh independence.

[Nearly Sane]

What about the issue I raised about the question - given that this was commissioned by YESCymru, but is neither a poll about Welsh independence, nor even conducted in Wales it sets alarm bells ringing in my mind.

I think this is a classic poll that is somewhat disingenuously phrased and without context with the aim of gaining a desired answer - in this case that people want English independence, which de facto means Welsh independence.

As I pointed out I think asking English people how you'd vote in a hypothetical referendum with the question: Should England be an independent country? - I suspect a proportion will vote 'yes' on the basis that they conflate England with Britain or UK and really mean that the UK is and should be an independent country.

A bit sneaky I suspect - but still didn't really attain the answer that YESCymru probably wanted, with only 27% of respondents answering 'Yes' to English independence, and by inference Welsh independence.

The last paragraph is not a sensible inference. And as I said given the 65/35 headline number I don't think it's a very interesting poll.

[ProfessorDavey]

The last paragraph is not a sensible inference. And as I said given the 65/35 headline number I don't think it's a very interesting poll.

Why is it not a sensible inference.

Why would YESCymru - a campaigning group for Welsh independence - be polling English people about English independence except to try and promote Welsh independence.

Here is there article about the polling:

https://www.yes.cymru/english_independence_poll

This is all about the future of the UK:

Dr Dafydd Trystan, a political scientist, said: “The polling evidence shows that a considerable minority of voters in England would vote to bring the United Kingdom to an end.

“The picture is even more interesting when one looks at the voters of different parties. Conservative and Unionist voters split evenly on the future of the UK with almost half being proponents of England going it alone."

Yet beyond the 'headline' polling question there actually was a subsidiary question:

'On a scale of 0-10 where 10 is very strongly in favour and 0 is very strongly against, how do you feel about all of the nations of the United Kingdom being independent from each other?'

On this question only 18% of people indicated 6-10 (in other words indicated some preference for the nations of the UK being independent of each other. By contrast 66% of people were opposed.

And that 27% would vote yes in a referendum with the question: Should England be an independent country?, yet only 18% are in favour of the nations of the UK becoming independent of each other suggests some confusion amongst a not inconsiderable number of those polls - which I suspect is because in the former question they are conflating England with UK (and therefore wanting the UK, rather than England to be independent) consistent with not supporting the UK breaking up.

[Nearly Sane]

Why is it not a sensible inference.

...

The rest of your post is a complete irrelevance to justifying your inference. It mainly involves you using the possible motivation of YesCymru and that they might be making the same inference. That they might butters no radishes in it being sensible.

It is perfectly possible for someone answering the question that they don't think that England should be independent to either support Welsh independence, or have no opinion on it. The same goes for someone who thinks England should bd independent as they may well have no opinion on Welsh independence , or might not even realise that it might be part of the argument.

[ProfessorDavey]

The rest of your post is a complete irrelevance to justifying your inference. It mainly involves you using the possible motivation of YesCymru and that they might be making the same inference. That they might butters no radishes in it being sensible.

It is perfectly possible for someone answering the question that they don't think that England should be independent to either support Welsh independence, or have no opinion on it. The same goes for someone who thinks England should bd independent as they may well have no opinion on Welsh independence , or might not even realise that it might be part of the argument.

To look at the (likely contrived) nonsense of the poll - look at the Leave subsample.

By 44% to 35% Leave voters support England being independent in the hypothetical poll - yet by 59% to 30% they don't support the nations of the UK (which includes England) being independent. How does this make sense unless there is some conflation of England with UK in the first answer.

[Nearly Sane]

To look at the (likely contrived) nonsense of the poll - look at the Leave subsample.

By 44% to 35% Leave voters support England being independent in the hypothetical poll - yet by 59% to 30% they don't support the nations of the UK (which includes England) being independent. How does this make sense unless there is some conflation of England with UK in the first answer.

Thank you for proving my point that your inference was not sensible.

[SteveH]

I think there should be three new independence referendums, in Scotland, Wales, and N. Ireland, and if any or all of them want full independence, they get it. What's left of the UK (possibly only England) should then become fully federal, with whichever of of the three countries are left having a regional parliament with the same powers as the Scottish one at the moment (which would mean an upgrade for Wales, whose assembly has fewer powers that Scotland - I don't know about NI), and England being divided into four to six regions, each having a parliament with the same powers as Scotland. The Westminster government would only deal with issues affecting the whole UK (or what's left of it).

[ProfessorDavey]

Thank you for proving my point that your inference was not sensible.

I've completely lost you now.

I thought the inference you were referring to is my view that YESCymru likely commissioned this poll (and agreed the wording) specifically to gain the highest possible notional support for English independence to use as an argument to support Welsh independence.

That they seemed to have failed to do that doesn't make the inference not sensible. And if you read their press release (which I hadn't done before making my claim) it is absolutely clear that they are using the poll exactly in the manner I suggested - to 'big up' support for English independence and then slide that conclusion into an argument for Welsh independence.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think there should be three new independence referendums, in Scotland, Wales, and N. Ireland, and if any or all of them want full independence, they get it.

I don't agree - recent history tells us we should be very careful when we hold referendums. In my view they should only be held under very limited circumstances, specifically:

1. Whether the government of the day wants to make a change.
2. Where that change is of such constitutional significant and, in reality, irreversible in the medium term that the government cannot really rely on their electoral mandate to make that change.
3. Where the change to be implemented is clear and where the government has the authority to enact that change.

Without those criteria being met, you really just have an opinion poll.

What's left of the UK (possibly only England) should then become fully federal, with whichever of of the three countries are left having a regional parliament with the same powers as the Scottish one at the moment (which would mean an upgrade for Wales, whose assembly has fewer powers that Scotland - I don't know about NI), and England being divided into four to six regions, each having a parliament with the same powers as Scotland. The Westminster government would only deal with issues affecting the whole UK (or what's left of it).

Not sure I'd use the term 'federal', but I agree with the notion of regional devolution.

This was actually the plan under Blair - but it got no further than Scotland, Wales, NI and London. It ground to a halt when the North East voted against a regional assembly.

I think the current government would claim they are doing this too, through the concept of the metro-mayors with significant devolved powers. However focussing devolution on cities rather than regions leads to a democratic deficit where certain powers are devolved locally if you live in some places (e.g. Manchester) but not if you live a couple of miles over the boundary in Cheshire.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think there should be three new independence referendums ... and N. Ireland,

Why on earth would you hold a referendum on independence in NI. What evidence is there that there is significant support for NI being an independent nation. There is plenty of debate at to whether NI should be part of the UK or part of the Republic of Ireland, but I've never seen any clamour for an independent NI. So what would be the point of holding a referendum on a proposition that clearly has no support.

If there is a referendum in NI, it should be on whether NI remains part of the UK or becomes part of the Republic. Indeed there is a case to be made that this referendum has to take place soon under the Good Friday agreement.

[Harrowby Hall]

I think there should be three new independence referendums, in Scotland, Wales, and N. Ireland, and if any or all of them want full independence, they get it. What's left of the UK (possibly only England) should then become fully federal, with whichever of of the three countries are left having a regional parliament with the same powers as the Scottish one at the moment (which would mean an upgrade for Wales, whose assembly has fewer powers that Scotland - I don't know about NI), and England being divided into four to six regions, each having a parliament with the same powers as Scotland. The Westminster government would only deal with issues affecting the whole UK (or what's left of it).

I have no major disagreement with you on this (though I do agree with the Prof over Northern Ireland) but I do think that for change to be mandated a majority of more than 50% of the total electorate should be required so that the moronic stupidity of Brexit (mandated on 37% of the electorate) is not repeated.

[Nearly Sane]

I have no major disagreement with you on this (though I do agree with the Prof over Northern Ireland) but I do think that for change to be mandated a majority of more than 50% of the total electorate should be required so that the moronic stupidity of Brexit (mandated on 37% of the electorate) is not repeated.

I wouldn't object to a minimum turnout and a minimum size of winning margin but this gives too much power to people not voting and the dead for the status quo.

[SteveH]

I have no major disagreement with you on this (though I do agree with the Prof over Northern Ireland) but I do think that for change to be mandated a majority of more than 50% of the total electorate should be required so that the moronic stupidity of Brexit (mandated on 37% of the electorate) is not repeated.

I agree. The other alternative is a pre-determined proportion of those who vote, but that's rather arbitrary. >50% of the electorate is a natural figure.

[SteveH]

Re. NI: the referendum should be for independence. If it becomes independent, union with the republic is a matter between NI and the republic.

[Nearly Sane]

I agree. The other alternative is a pre-determined proportion of those who vote, but that's rather arbitrary. >50% of the electorate is a natural figure.

No, it is in our voting system just an arbitrary figure too. It seems to me to give too much power to support of the status quo. It might be better if it was combined with compulsory voting, but the idea that a non vote is a no vote does not feel right. I do think you need some sort of minimum turn out requirement if you don't have compulsory voting.

[Anchorman]

No, it is in our voting system just an arbitrary figure too. It seems to me to give too much power to support of the status quo. It might be better if it was combined with compulsory voting, but the idea that a non vote is a no vote does not feel right. I do think you need some sort of minimum turn out requirement if you don't have compulsory voting.

       


That sounds good in theory, NS, but I well remember the stramash of the 1979 Assembly referendum, and the bitterness that lingered to some extent, untill 1997 (despite the weak nature of the proposed body, which bears no comparison to the new devolved authority set up in 1999)