Football 2020 - 2021

[ProfessorDavey]

Looking at the squad and missing players,  Vertonghen, Vermaelen and Mertens are the players who would definitely be at the far end of playing age. That could be significant. Their defence looks most affected by age.

And of those that played, Mignolet, Alderweireld and Witsel are over 30 and Boyata and Meunier are 29, as are deBruyne and Eden Hazard.

I think perhaps 2018 was their best chance with their own 'golden generation' (remember Kompany was also playing then), by 2021 I'd be concerned that quite a number will be past their peak, and as this generation has been so dominant there isn't much experience waiting in the wings.

[jeremyp]

No we are talking about your view (who doesn't really seem to be much of a fan)

I tell you what. Why don't you fuck off?

I made an off the cuff remark about not knowing that Belgium were the number one football team in the world. And now you seem determined to make a huge deal out of it. What is your problem?

[Aruntraveller]

Can I just say I had no idea Belgium was the no 1 club. I thought it was Mansfield Town.

Seriously Prof. my partner who is an avid football fan (I know a gay football fan who'd have thunk it) had no idea it was Belgium either.

As he said, it just seems unlikely somehow.

[Nearly Sane]

And of those that played, Mignolet, Alderweireld and Witsel are over 30 and Boyata and Meunier are 29, as are deBruyne and Eden Hazard.

I think perhaps 2018 was their best chance with their own 'golden generation' (remember Kompany was also playing then), by 2021 I'd be concerned that quite a number will be past their peak, and as this generation has been so dominant there isn't much experience waiting in the wings.

Mignolet doesn't count here because (a) he's second choice and (b) he's a goalkeeper and so tends to have an extended career. Boyata is a useful fringe player.

I also think you overestimate the effect of being 30+. For many positions it can be managed and CR7 is older now than any of the players we have talked about than they will be in 2021 tournament. And given you mentioned Kompany he was 32 at the World Cup and had a significant injury history

The midfield would be likely to DeBruyne, Hazard, Carrasco and Tielemens which doesn't seem too old. DeBruyne's game should not be too affected by age but that is less true of Hazard.

I think they might not be quite the 2018 team in 2021 but that was true for 2020 but if the main players particularly Courtois, DeBruyne, Hazard, and Lukaku are fit and in form, they will have a strong chance. The effects of Covid on the flow of the season end of 2020 has made it difficult to judge teams' development and the integration of younger players so I don't think it's at all clear about comparisons. I suspect that may be true for this season as well with its interrupted and packed calendar. Unless they have significant injuries they will be amongst the favourites.


 

[Nearly Sane]

Can I just say I had no idea Belgium was the no 1 club. I thought it was Mansfield Town.

Seriously Prof. my partner who is an avid football fan (I know a gay football fan who'd have thunk it) had no idea it was Belgium either.

As he said, it just seems unlikely somehow.

I think many fans are not really that bothered by who is ranked no1 by an algorithm, as Jeremy notes more by competitions won. Also while it can have imports for which pot teams go into in draws, it's mainly a geek thing to know what current rankings are, I say that as a geek.

I should note though my geekery leans more to knowing who are the unofficial world champions, currently Italy, though that interest may be sparked by the all time rankings.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unofficial_Football_World_Championships

[ProfessorDavey]

Can I just say I had no idea Belgium was the no 1 club. I thought it was Mansfield Town.

Seriously Prof. my partner who is an avid football fan (I know a gay football fan who'd have thunk it) had no idea it was Belgium either.

As he said, it just seems unlikely somehow.

I am genuinely surprised that anyone who follows international football is surprised that Belgium are ranked number 1. Sure I understand that you might not be aware specifically on rankings, but surely the notion that Belgium are right at the top has been common knowledge for a while - certainly since the 2018 world cup.

And just thinking about their current crop of players means it is pretty obvious they are going to be right up there. Perhaps number 1, perhaps number 2, but to be surprised that Belgium are ranked number 1 suggests someone hasn't really been paying attention.

Worth noting too that there was loads of press when the Nation League groups were drawn that England would be playing the number one team in the world, and this was reiterated prior to the game at the weekend.

[ProfessorDavey]

I made an off the cuff remark about not knowing that Belgium were the number one football team in the world. And now you seem determined to make a huge deal out of it. What is your problem?

No Jeremy - it isn't that you didn't know who was top of the rankings that was my issue. My point was that you were surprised that Belgium were top of the rankings - it isn't a surprise at all if you've been watching international football over the past few years or understand the quality of players they have available to them.

That's my point. To be surprised that they are number one suggest you either haven't been paying attention or are stuck in a stereotypical view that Belgium are a small nation so can't possible be number one and that the number one spot can somehow only be held by one of the big established nations.

[Nearly Sane]

No Jeremy - it isn't that you didn't know who was top of the rankings that was my issue. My point was that you were surprised that Belgium were top of the rankings - it isn't a surprise at all if you've been watching international football over the past few years or understand the quality of players they have available to them.

That's my point. To be surprised that they are number one suggest you either haven't been paying attention or are stuck in a stereotypical view that Belgium are a small nation so can't possible be number one and that the number one spot can somehow only be held by one of the big established nations.

False dichotomy

[ProfessorDavey]

False dichotomy

You are absolutely right NS.

To be surprised that Belgium are number you could have been failing to pay attention to what was going on in international football and are stuck in a stereotypical view that Belgium are a small nation so can't possible be number one

[Nearly Sane]

You are absolutely right NS.

To be surprised that Belgium are number you could have been failing to pay attention to what was going on in international football and are stuck in a stereotypical view that Belgium are a small nation so can't possible be number one

And many other things as well. You are just back at your No true Scotsman, and then adding on some made up stuff about jeremyp's motivation. And also stating that about Trebtvoyager's partner. It's not your best look.

Btw you seem to have lost interest in discussing Belguim's chances..

[ad_orientem]

I did know they were ranked number one but it surprises me nonetheless. Belgium got knocked out of Euro 2016 in the quarter finals and the semi finals of the 2018 World Cup. France got to the final of both and won the latter. But then I have absolutely no idea how the FIFA world rankings work. I think it's a complete mystery to most fans.

[Nearly Sane]

I did know they were ranked number one but it surprises me nonetheless. Belgium got knocked out of Euro 2016 in the quarter finals and the semi finals of the 2018 World Cup. France got to the final of both and won the latter. But then I have absolutely no idea how the FIFA world rankings work. I think it's a complete mystery to most fans.

Details are here

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Rankings

[Nearly Sane]

And Cristiano Ronaldo has Covid.

[ProfessorDavey]

I did know they were ranked number one but it surprises me nonetheless. Belgium got knocked out of Euro 2016 in the quarter finals and the semi finals of the 2018 World Cup. France got to the final of both and won the latter. But then I have absolutely no idea how the FIFA world rankings work. I think it's a complete mystery to most fans.

Here is how it works:

https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/fifa-world-ranking-how-it-is-calculated-what-it-is-used-for/16w60sntgv7x61a6q08b7ooi0p

So it is based on a combination of:

1. Raw result - win, draw, loss
2. The quality of the opposition
3. The significance of the match - friendly, qualifier, euro (or equivalent finals), world cup finals.
4. Overall strength of the confederation - e.g. UEFA, Concaf etc.

It doesn't surprise me that Belgium are top as they lost just one game in the World Cup finals (to the then top ranked team and they beat Brazil on the way), having won their qualifying group with 9 wins and a draw (only bettered by Germany in Uefa section).

Since then they've recorded 16 wins, one draw and one defeat going into the match with England at the weekend, including a 100% record of 10 wins in their Euro 2020 qualification tournament in which they scored 40 goals and conceded just three (the best qualification record across all teams).

Since Martinez took over as manager in 2016 they've won 36 or their 47 games with just 7 draws and four defeats (and that includes Sunday's against England and a defeat by Spain in a friendly in his first game in change).

Sounds like world number one form to me, unless you can think of a team with a better overall record. France are, of course, second in the rankings.

[ad_orientem]

Cheers NS and Prof.👍

[ProfessorDavey]

Cheers NS and Prof.👍

Hi AO

I think one of the things about the ranking is that it is based on results of individual matches, while taking into account the opponent and the tournament, rather that the result of the tournament per se.

So Belgium will have received almost as many ranking points for the games in world cup 2018 with 7 games, 6 wins, 1 defeat, compared to France with 7 games, 6 wins, 1 draw - possibly more so if Belgium's opponents were deemed to be tougher than France's.

Although this might seem odd it probably makes sense as the rankings are used for further prediction, particularly for draws for qualifying tournament and the group stages of the finals. So winning is tournament (for example compared to being beaten finalist or semi-finalist) isn't really a good indication that you will do better in the subsequent qualifying competition compared to that beaten finalist or semi-finalist. Not least because a finals tournament is based on a small number of games (usually 6 or 7) and there can be an awful lot of luck involved. Rankings take a longer look, over more games, and you'd expect luck to become less significant over that longer range.

I think the ranking is based on 4 years results, with most weighting to the most recent 12 months - so likely based on up to 50 matches. Knowing this, and knowing Belgium's record over the past 4 years, and their exceptional run of form in the last 12 months it should come as no surprise that they are top.

[ProfessorDavey]

And Cristiano Ronaldo has Covid.

And from what I've read the positive test result came in just hours after he had a meal with the rest of the Portugal squad. Suspect we may be seeing more cases.

[Nearly Sane]

And from what I've read the positive test result came in just hours after he had a meal with the rest of the Portugal squad. Suspect we may be seeing more cases.

I can see there being cancellations in the near future.

[ProfessorDavey]

I can see there being cancellations in the near future.

I agree.

I'm actually quite surprised that there have been so few cancellations since football returned in the summer.

[Nearly Sane]

I agree.

I'm actually quite surprised that there have been so few cancellations since football returned in the summer.

Yes, I think that the Czech Republic v Scotland match in the Nations League should have been postponed.

[Nearly Sane]

Far from vintage England performance last night

[jeremyp]

That's my point. To be surprised that they are number one suggest you either haven't been paying attention or are stuck in a stereotypical view that Belgium are a small nation so can't possible be number one and that the number one spot can somehow only be held by one of the big established nations.

OK, let's deal with this.

Belgium is a small nation (no need to poison the well with your "stereotypical view"), it's about a fifth the size of England, for example and less than twice the size of Scotland in terms of population. It is surprising if they achieve number one in the World status, especially as they weren't previously well known for being a footballing superpower.

Being surprised is not the same as asserting it is impossible. You're quite intelligent, you should know that.

[ProfessorDavey]

OK, let's deal with this.

Belgium is a small nation (no need to poison the well with your "stereotypical view"), it's about a fifth the size of England, for example and less than twice the size of Scotland in terms of population. It is surprising if they achieve number one in the World status, especially as they weren't previously well known for being a footballing superpower.

Being surprised is not the same as asserting it is impossible. You're quite intelligent, you should know that.

You only need about 30 or so top players to make a great team that can be highly competitive over a number of years. And in that squad you need a few world beaters. Every so often a 'small' country produces such a squad and outcompetes larger countries. Every so often a country produces a golden generation of players.

And yes there is a level of stereotyping going on here. I suspect many people consider the Netherlands to be one of the great footballing nations - not always at the top, but regularly right up there and sometimes with a world beating golden generation. Yet the Netherlands isn't much larger than Belgium in terms of population. So why are we not surprised when the Netherlands ranks really highly and ends up at the sharp end of tournaments, but we are surprised when Belgium does so.

At the moment they have not one, but two of the world's most creative players, in DeBruyne and Hazard plus the striker with just about the best record in international football over the past couple of years. Add a really solid and experienced defence and it should be no surprise they are ranked top or close to top.

And didn't you notice they won every one of their qualifying games for Euro 2020, with a record better than any other team.

[ProfessorDavey]

Far from vintage England performance last night

Have England ever had two players sent off in the same game before?

[Nearly Sane]

Have England ever had two players sent off in the same game before?

Nope


http://www.englandfootballonline.com/TeamDiscip/PlyrDisc.html