Scottish Independence - the results therefrom?

[Owlswing]

Just supposing that sometime in the next five years or so, Scotland votes to leave the Union, one, how long do you foresee it taking before separation is achieved, and two, 

what do you think the main changes, for good or evil to both sides, will be, political, economic, international, etc! (Apart from the price of good Scotch sky-rocketing!) 

Owlswing

)O(

[Aruntraveller]

Just supposing that sometime in the next five years or so, Scotland votes to leave the Union, one, how long do you foresee it taking before separation is achieved, and two, 

what do you think the main changes, for good or evil to both sides, will be, political, economic, international, etc! (Apart from the price of good Scotch sky-rocketing!) 

Owlswing

)O(

As I have said elsewhere - Brexit will have been a picnic in the park on a sunny day, compared to the thunderstorm and floods that would follow Scottish  independence.

Please note I'm not making a comment on the rights or wrongs of the issues, just that sometimes people have to understand that the price might not be worth paying.

[Owlswing]

As I have said elsewhere - Brexit will have been a picnic in the park on a sunny day, compared to the thunderstorm and floods that would follow Scottish independence.

Please note I'm not making a comment on the rights or wrongs of the issues, just that sometimes people have to understand that the price might not be worth paying.

That was one of the things I was thinking about - which side of the border would end up paying the higher price?

Owlswing

)O(

[Aruntraveller]

That was one of the things I was thinking about - which side of the border would end up paying the higher price?

Owlswing

)O(

We have partly covered this on the 2nd indyref thread, but my take (for what it's worth) is that certainly in the short to medium term Scotland would come off much worse. This is down to simple economics - the rest of the UK are not going to make it easy for Scotland (and by the rUK I mean predominantly England) to leave.

The situation is much more complicated that the Brexit one. Mainly due to a shared currency and even more integrated economies than the previous arrangements shared with the EU, and I don't actually see the current government (in England) being anything but extremely hard faced, and probably nasty if separation was actually going to happen.

[Gordon]

I think it is impossible to say at this stage without some flesh on the bones: mind you, the lack of a coherent plan didn't stop Brexit happening. There is also the issue of what happens to Brexit meantime, such as whether trade becomes so problematic that the UK government eventually has to accept being part of the EU single market and/or customs union - perhaps as Brexit implodes then enough of the electorate will turn on the Tories - I hope so.

I suspect a newly independent Scotland would look to join the EU single market and customs union a.s.a.p. and seek to join the EU and adopt the Euro (very much like Ireland). Many of the Scottish institutions are already separate (especially the legal and educational systems), and since the UK government (in essence the Tory party, since nobody outwith the Tories was allowed to participate) hasn't exactly covered itself in glory over the Brexit negotiations I'm not not sure that they would get away with trying to bully.

If England were to remain in thrall to the Tories, Scotland becomes independent and aligns with the EU, and seeing this the people of Northern Ireland wish to secede from the UK (in a few years the Unionists there will be a minority) it could be that England becomes politically isolated.

Sadly my crystal ball has clouded over.

[ekim]

Just supposing that sometime in the next five years or so, Scotland votes to leave the Union, one, how long do you foresee it taking before separation is achieved, and two, 

what do you think the main changes, for good or evil to both sides, will be, political, economic, international, etc! (Apart from the price of good Scotch sky-rocketing!) 

Owlswing

)O(

Here's a view that may answer some of your questions: https://tinyurl.com/6fvbe935

[jakswan]

Just supposing that sometime in the next five years or so, Scotland votes to leave the Union, one, how long do you foresee it taking before separation is achieved, and two, 

what do you think the main changes, for good or evil to both sides, will be, political, economic, international, etc! (Apart from the price of good Scotch sky-rocketing!) 

Many years to separate but political wins all round.

Right or wrong the SNP are not truly accountable to the Scottish electorate since they always go down the route 'it's the Tories what did it'.

Odd so many rabid nationalists want to rush out of one union and into another.

[Roses]

If the Scots voted for independence would they be permitted to re-join the EU?

[Aruntraveller]

If the Scots voted for independence would they be permitted to re-join the EU?

The EU have indicated as much, various statements have been made by statespeople within the EU, here is one such:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-scotland-eu-independent-donald-tusk-dominic-raab-indyref2-a9313336.html

[Harrowby Hall]

Scottish independence would effectively turn England into a one-party state. I'm surprised Johnson isn't encouraging it.

[ProfessorDavey]

Many years to separate but political wins all round.

Not convinced.

Elections of this sort are won in the middle - those who are implacably opposed or fervently for are lost to the debate. Those that can be persuaded hold the key.

Now back in 2016 there were plenty of people saying that extracting the UK from the EU would take years, but of course there wasn't evidence and others dismissed it as 'project fear'. Now I suspect there are plenty of 'leave' voters in 2016 who would, at that time, have been astonished that we are only just entering the period of 'heavy lifting' on Brexit in 2021. And had they known that in 2016, that years, if not decades of chaos lay ahead, may well have voted differently.

Now - in any future Scottish independence vote, the reality of Brexit will be at the forefront of those swing voters in a manner that it couldn't have been in 2016.

[Owlswing]

Scottish independence would effectively turn England into a one-party state. I'm surprised Johnson isn't encouraging it.

You and others spend an inordinate amount of time slagging off the Conservatives and Boris Johnson and yet you seem to have no faith in enough Labour supporters voting to vote him/them out!

Why so?

Owlswing

)O(

[Aruntraveller]

You and others spend an inordinate amount of time slagging off the Conservatives and Boris Johnson and yet you seem to have no faith in enough Labour supporters voting to vote him/them out!

Why so?

Owlswing

)O(

I am resisting using several words here, but you have worked out in all the years on the planet that our electoral system unfairly favours the Conservative party haven't you?.

You do know that the votes for political parties carry different values ?

By which I mean:

864,743 to elect the lone Green MP
642,303 votes for zero Brexit Party MPs
334,122 to elect each Liberal Democrat
50,817 to elect each Labour MP
38,300 votes to elect each Conservative MP
38,316 to elect each Plaid Cymru MP
25,882 to elect each SNP MP

(Electoral Reform Society)

Until this grotesque distortion of democracy is repaired we will continue to get Conservative majority governments on 42/3% of the popular vote for a disproportionate amount of time. (The same system favours Labour but less often)

[Owlswing]

I am resisting using several words here, but you have worked out in all the years on the planet that our electoral system unfairly favours the Conservative party haven't you?.

You do know that the votes for political parties carry different values ?

By which I mean:

864,743 to elect the lone Green MP
642,303 votes for zero Brexit Party MPs
334,122 to elect each Liberal Democrat
50,817 to elect each Labour MP
38,300 votes to elect each Conservative MP
38,316 to elect each Plaid Cymru MP
25,882 to elect each SNP MP

(Electoral Reform Society)

Until this grotesque distortion of democracy is not repaired we will continue to get Conservative majority governments on 42/3% of the popular vote for a disproportionate amount of time. (The same system favours Labour but less often)

Don't be bloody sillier than you can help! This is not the problem of the system but the proliferation of parties opposing the conservatives.

If you got all of them together to work together they would win!

Don't blame the system for the opposition's inability to work together!

Owlswing

)O(

[Aruntraveller]

I'm not being silly, but you are certainly being belligerent.

It is a fact that the system itself prevents meaningful representation of the people's wishes.

This has been known for years.

If some people are so stuck in their ways that they refuse to acknowledge this fact that is a problem for them and their lack of reasoning.

[jakswan]

Not convinced.

Elections of this sort are won in the middle - those who are implacably opposed or fervently for are lost to the debate. Those that can be persuaded hold the key.

Now back in 2016 there were plenty of people saying that extracting the UK from the EU would take years, but of course there wasn't evidence and others dismissed it as 'project fear'. Now I suspect there are plenty of 'leave' voters in 2016 who would, at that time, have been astonished that we are only just entering the period of 'heavy lifting' on Brexit in 2021. And had they known that in 2016, that years, if not decades of chaos lay ahead, may well have voted differently.

With regard to Brexit possible, but it is also possible that enough voters thought years of disruption was worth it for a more independent UK.

Remainers in an Scexit referendum will need to make the similar arguments, I'd strongly advise them to refrain from overstating their case and name calling.

[jakswan]

If some people are so stuck in their ways that they refuse to acknowledge this fact that is a problem for them and their lack of reasoning.

I think the system is flawed but as a slightly right-wing person it is not my problem, if you want a left wing government it is yours?

The political parties evolve to represent the views of the electorate, even if the system changed I suspect you would end up with a slightly right-wing government.

Bring it back to the topic, I'm sure I have read research that suggests the Scottish electorate also have the same right-wing leanings, but doesn't come out in elections due to the Tory\English brand.

[Aruntraveller]

I think the system is flawed but as a slightly right-wing person it is not my problem, if you want a left wing government it is yours?

The political parties evolve to represent the views of the electorate, even if the system changed I suspect you would end up with a slightly right-wing government.

I wasn't arguing from the perspective of getting a left or right wing party into power, only on the basis that the system is basically unfair and unrepresentative.

In fat I think if you read my previous post you will see that I note the current system unfairly benefits both the Conservatives and to a lesser extent the Labour Party. I don't see why my vote should carry more weight than a Liberal Democrat supporter, or indeed a supporter of the Brexit Reform party.