The great filter

[Sriram]

Hi everyone,

A news item about Elon Musk and the great filter.

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/human-extinction-due-great-filter-elon-musk-says-mars-colonization-only-hope-836633

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The Great Filter is a part of the Fermi paradox which could explain why humans have not encountered an extraterrestrial civilization. In 1950, Enrico Fermi put forward a question regarding the existence of advanced civilizations other than humans. Fermi paradox questions why humans have not encountered other alien species, especially considering the vastness of the universe, and the presence of uncountable earth-like exoplanets.

The solution for this paradox, suggested by some scientists is that most of the civilizations once reaches a certain size will kill off themselves by destroying the planet through wars or other means.

According to Elon Musk, one of the best ways to conquer this filter of life is by emerging as a multi-planetary species.

"Becoming multi-planetary is one of the greatest filters. Only now, 4.5 billion years after Earth formed, is it possible. How long this window to reach Mars remains open is uncertain. Perhaps a long time, perhaps not. In case it is the latter, we should act now,"

Elon Musk and his company is planning to land humans on Mars by the end of this decade. A few months back, Musk had claimed that he wishes to live on Mars despite narrow chances of survival. The SpaceX founder also made it clear that the future government on Mars will be based on direct democracy.

********

Seems to be getting ahead of himself somewhat....!!. What do you think?

Cheers.

Sriram

[Aruntraveller]

Maybe get the rockets to land properly first.

[jeremyp]

Hi everyone,

A news item about Elon Musk and the great filter.

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/human-extinction-due-great-filter-elon-musk-says-mars-colonization-only-hope-836633

********

The Great Filter is a part of the Fermi paradox which could explain why humans have not encountered an extraterrestrial civilization. In 1950, Enrico Fermi put forward a question regarding the existence of advanced civilizations other than humans. Fermi paradox questions why humans have not encountered other alien species, especially considering the vastness of the universe, and the presence of uncountable earth-like exoplanets.

The solution for this paradox, suggested by some scientists is that most of the civilizations once reaches a certain size will kill off themselves by destroying the planet through wars or other means.

According to Elon Musk, one of the best ways to conquer this filter of life is by emerging as a multi-planetary species.

"Becoming multi-planetary is one of the greatest filters. Only now, 4.5 billion years after Earth formed, is it possible. How long this window to reach Mars remains open is uncertain. Perhaps a long time, perhaps not. In case it is the latter, we should act now,"

Elon Musk and his company is planning to land humans on Mars by the end of this decade. A few months back, Musk had claimed that he wishes to live on Mars despite narrow chances of survival. The SpaceX founder also made it clear that the future government on Mars will be based on direct democracy.

********

Seems to be getting ahead of himself somewhat....!!. What do you think?

Cheers.

Sriram

Elon Musk is a snake oil salesman. He wants to go to Mars and, frankly, I think the sooner he fucks off there the better for all of us.

There is absolutely nothing we can do to the Earth that will make it harder to make fit for habitation than Mars. If a dinosaur sized asteroid hits, it will still be easier to live on Earth than Mars.

[Sriram]

Yes...I absolutely agree. One of the easiest ways of killing ourselves off is to attempt colonization of another planet.

[jeremyp]

Yes...I absolutely agree. One of the easiest ways of killing ourselves off is to attempt colonization of another planet.

That's not what I'm saying. We can attempt to colonise other planets (although I don't see the point myself except for scientific discovery) and it won't make much difference to our attempts to keep Earth habitable for humans as long as we don't get distracted by it. Moreover, if we have the ability to make Mars habitable, we have the ability to keep Earth habitable. Why not do the latter and save humans?

Musk only says the stuff he says about Mars to keep the faithful onside. He doesn't really care about Mars, he cares about owning as much of the space launch business as possible. Musk doesn't care about the environment, he only cares about owning as much of the car manufacturing business as possible. His forays into public transport: the Hyperloop and the Boring company are really schemes to sell more Teslas.

Musk is a charlatan and he's dangerous because his supporters believe.

 

[BeRational]

That's not what I'm saying. We can attempt to colonise other planets (although I don't see the point myself except for scientific discovery) and it won't make much difference to our attempts to keep Earth habitable for humans as long as we don't get distracted by it. Moreover, if we have the ability to make Mars habitable, we have the ability to keep Earth habitable. Why not do the latter and save humans?

Musk only says the stuff he says about Mars to keep the faithful onside. He doesn't really care about Mars, he cares about owning as much of the space launch business as possible. Musk doesn't care about the environment, he only cares about owning as much of the car manufacturing business as possible. His forays into public transport: the Hyperloop and the Boring company are really schemes to sell more Teslas.

Musk is a charlatan and he's dangerous because his supporters believe.

I think the reasoning would be that if humans exist on more than one planet, should anything catastrophic happen to one, the other should be okay.

Ideally humans would have to make to another younger star really or it's just timing, as the sun will die.

[Alan Burns]

I think the reasoning would be that if humans exist on more than one planet, should anything catastrophic happen to one, the other should be okay.

Ideally humans would have to make to another younger star really or it's just timing, as the sun will die.

What's the point?
The universe will burn out, like a big firework.
No material entity will survive.
The only way out is heaven, our spiritual home. 

[jeremyp]

I think the reasoning would be that if humans exist on more than one planet, should anything catastrophic happen to one, the other should be okay.

Ideally humans would have to make to another younger star really or it's just timing, as the sun will die.

Going to have to agree with Alan B here, at least on the first part of his post.

Why is it so important that the human race survive? If something catastrophic happens on Earth, it will be of small comfort to the billions of people who die in the catastrophe that there are some people on Mars who will still be alive at the end of it. Not that they will last very long - I seriously doubt Mars can be made self sufficient for humans.

[BeRational]

What's the point?
The universe will burn out, like a big firework.
No material entity will survive.
The only way out is heaven, our spiritual home. 

The universe will last longer than the sun.

Fairy tales about living forever are not for reasonable adults.

[BeRational]

Going to have to agree with Alan B here, at least on the first part of his post.

Why is it so important that the human race survive? If something catastrophic happens on Earth, it will be of small comfort to the billions of people who die in the catastrophe that there are some people on Mars who will still be alive at the end of it. Not that they will last very long - I seriously doubt Mars can be made self sufficient for humans.

We give things importance!

Nothing is intrinsically important, we could all die tomorrow and it not be important.

But it is important to us, to me at least.

If you own a car, why bother, it will eventually be in a scrap yard. But it is useful NOW, it is important to you NOW.

That's all that matters

[BeRational]

Going to have to agree with Alan B here, at least on the first part of his post.

Why is it so important that the human race survive? If something catastrophic happens on Earth, it will be of small comfort to the billions of people who die in the catastrophe that there are some people on Mars who will still be alive at the end of it. Not that they will last very long - I seriously doubt Mars can be made self sufficient for humans.

Also, with respect what you doubt has no bearing on what is actually possible, as I am sure you would agree.

Personal incredulity as I am sure you know, is a fallacy.

[jeremyp]

Also, with respect what you doubt has no bearing on what is actually possible, as I am sure you would agree.

Personal incredulity as I am sure you know, is a fallacy.

There are good practical reasons why making Mars self sufficient is an impossible dream.

[BeRational]

There are good practical reasons why making Mars self sufficient is an impossible dream.

How can you demonstrate that it is impossible?

You would have to know right now, all scientific advances that humans will discover in the future, and I do not think you can do that.

Things that seem insurmountable now, might seem trivial in the future. I only say might.

[Alan Burns]

Personal incredulity as I am sure you know, is a fallacy.

So is personal optimism

[bluehillside Retd.]

AB,

So is personal optimism

No it isn't. 

[BeRational]

So is personal optimism

I never said i was optimistic it might happen.

I don't know if it will happen.

Those that are sure it will not happen need to demonstrate why they know this.

[jeremyp]

I never said i was optimistic it might happen.

I don't know if it will happen.

Those that are sure it will not happen need to demonstrate why they know this.

There are two immediate problems.

1. Mars is a long way from the Sun, meaning there won't be enough light to grow things or power a lot of things.

2. Mars has no magnetic field, meaning radiation on the surface will make it hard for biological organisms to stay there for any length of time.

There's also the problem of where to get enough oxygen and where to get a sustainable supply of nutrition. Also, all the water is at the poles and is currently solid.

[BeRational]

There are two immediate problems.

1. Mars is a long way from the Sun, meaning there won't be enough light to grow things or power a lot of things.

2. Mars has no magnetic field, meaning radiation on the surface will make it hard for biological organisms to stay there for any length of time.

There's also the problem of where to get enough oxygen and where to get a sustainable supply of nutrition. Also, all the water is at the poles and is currently solid.

Agreed to all of the above.

How have you determined that these problems cannot ever be solved?

[bluehillside Retd.]

Jeremy,

https://www.space.com/make-mars-habitable-with-silica-aerogel.html

[Nearly Sane]

So is personal optimism

Please explain the 'fallacy of personal optimism', and then why it is relevant here

[jeremyp]

Jeremy,

https://www.space.com/make-mars-habitable-with-silica-aerogel.html

How much would you need and how do you get it there? Also, how do you solve the problems of the charged particles from the Sun that originally stripped the atmosphere? What about air?

[BeRational]

How much would you need and how do you get it there? Also, how do you solve the problems of the charged particles from the Sun that originally stripped the atmosphere? What about air?

I don't know it seems hugely complex.

But you said it will never be possible.

You seem to be falling into the personal incredulity fallacy. You cannot see how it can be done, therefore it cannot be done.

I don't think you will make that error.

[Alan Burns]

Please explain the 'fallacy of personal optimism', and then why it is relevant here

Optimistic statements based on one's own personal views or wishes, not backed up by valid reasoning are just as much fallacious as statements of personal incredulity which are not backed up by intelligent reasoning.

I have been falsely accused many times on this forum of personal incredulity when I have offered substantial, well thought out reasons which have been dismissed by meaningless words such as "drivel", "gibberish" or "theobabble".

[BeRational]

How much would you need and how do you get it there? Also, how do you solve the problems of the charged particles from the Sun that originally stripped the atmosphere? What about air?

I don't know, but you know that it can never be done.

How do you know, and have you told the people working on this problem that they are wasting their time?

[Nearly Sane]

Optimistic statements based on one's own personal views or wishes, not backed up by valid reasoning are just as much fallacious as statements of personal incredulity which are not backed up by intelligent reasoning.

I have been falsely accused many times on this forum of personal incredulity when I have offered substantial, well thought out reasons which have been dismissed by meaningless words such as "drivel", "gibberish" or "theobabble".

I don't see where your newly minted fallacy applies here? Where was BeRational making an optimistic statement?