Chesham and Amersham by election today

[Nearly Sane]

Oddly enough I was in Amersham over the weekend. Of Old Amersham High St was indicative it would be a landslide for the Lib Dems. I suspect it might not be.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57472032

[jeremyp]

Oddly enough I was in Amersham over the weekend. Of Old Amersham High St was indicative it would be a landslide for the Lib Dems. I suspect it might not be.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57472032

I used to live not far from there. My money would be on it being a pretty solid Tory stronghold.

[Nearly Sane]

I used to live not far from there. My money would be on it being a pretty solid Tory stronghold.

The majority last time was 16k, and that was with a 9.3% swing against the Tories. I think the LDs may well reduce the majority but can't see how they win.

[Nearly Sane]

So much for my punditry


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57472032

[jeremyp]

So much for my punditry


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57472032

Who’d be a prophet in this game?

[SteveH]

The majority last time was 16k, and that was with a 9.3% swing against the Tories. I think the LDs may well reduce the majority but can't see how they win.

HA! Well, so much for that prediction! 

[Nearly Sane]

HA! Well, so much for that prediction! 

indeed. It's quite a weird result , the changes from 2017 to 2019 and to this are huge. It breathes life into the LDs, indicates some tactical voting but is disastrous for Labour.

ETA prior to 2015, it's a very steady seat with Tories winning comfortably ahead of the LDs in 2nd. Then in 2015 the LD vote tanks, UKIP come second, and Labour 3rd. 2017 UKIP vote pretty much disappear, Labour gets a bump and comes 2nd, LDs recover a bit and come 3rd. 2019 looks quite like the elections prior to 2015. And in this by election, the Labour vote all but disappears, presumably a large tactical vote but the Tory vote collapses.

Overall a swing to LD of 25.2% which is at levels similar to swings to the  Soc Dems in the early 80s.

[Aruntraveller]

indicates some tactical voting but is disastrous for Labour.

Not sure I understand the reasoning there. Labour did not stand a chance of winning this seat if you look at the electoral history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesham_and_Amersham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

They have only once been in 2nd place - when UKIP's vote collapsed as you identified. If I had been living in that constituency, as a Labour voter I would have voted LD.

What needs to happen now is an adult conversation between the leaders of the opposition parties to formalise an approach which encourages tactical voting to the advantage of their respective parties.

I don't think it will happen because Starmer is still tied to the appeal of the "winner takes all" factor in our system.

If disparate parties such as those in Israel can work together to change things, it surely cannot be beyond fairly like-minded parties (Lab, LD, Greens) to do the same to effect a change.

I'm channeling Dusty today: Wishin' & Hopin'

[jeremyp]

Not sure I understand the reasoning there. Labour did not stand a chance of winning this seat if you look at the electoral history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesham_and_Amersham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

They have only once been in 2nd place - when UKIP's vote collapsed as you identified. If I had been living in that constituency, as a Labour voter I would have voted LD.

What needs to happen now is an adult conversation between the leaders of the opposition parties to formalise an approach which encourages tactical voting to the advantage of their respective parties.

I don't think it will happen because Starmer is still tied to the appeal of the "winner takes all" factor in our system.

If disparate parties such as those in Israel can work together to change things, it surely cannot be beyond fairly like-minded parties (Lab, LD, Greens) to do the same to effect a change.

I'm channeling Dusty today: Wishin' & Hopin'

The difference between our system and that of Israel is that our ruling party has an absolute majority and their system is a form of PR. Until the next general election, it won't be possible to overturn the Tory majority. If the other parties band together to try to beat the Tories at every by-election until then, it won't look like anything more than political cynicism.

You could argue that it would be a good idea for the opposition parties to form a coalition to beat the Tories at the next general election, but personally, I would not be impressed if the party I want to vote for withdraws its candidate in my constituency in the name of beating the Tories. I might even be minded not to vote. If there are enough people like me, the tac-tic might misfire.

[Aruntraveller]

The difference between our system and that of Israel is that our ruling party has an absolute majority and their system is a form of PR. Until the next general election, it won't be possible to overturn the Tory majority. If the other parties band together to try to beat the Tories at every by-election until then, it won't look like anything more than political cynicism.

You could argue that it would be a good idea for the opposition parties to form a coalition to beat the Tories at the next general election, but personally, I would not be impressed if the party I want to vote for withdraws its candidate in my constituency in the name of beating the Tories. I might even be minded not to vote. If there are enough people like me, the tac-tic might misfire.

I suppose it depends on how serious a threat a person views the Tories. I view them as a huge threat and would be prepared to change my vote, if needed. It is a strategy that has it's problems as you have identified, but I'm not sure the option of carrying on as usual is going to change things. If there are other options, short of revolution, then I'd be glad to hear them.

No doubt we will see in the fullness of time.

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting analysis of the possible reasons why here

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1405773253705011211.html


I think it's disastrous for Labour because of 622 votes and 4th place.


The problems of some sort of progressive alliance is, that unlike Israel which has PR and therefore makes it much more likely for parties to negotiate after the fact, this needs negotiating before an election.

[Aruntraveller]

I think it's disastrous for Labour because of 622 votes and 4th place.

If there is some kind of tactical voting then I don't see it as disastrous. If it isn't then it is disastrous. No doubt some poll will be done to establish the truth of the matter.

Yes, the fact that we don't have PR makes it more difficult, but it shouldn't be beyond the bounds of possibility to present it in such a way as to seem reasonable to most potential voters. As I've said previously I don't think the same old, same old is going to cut it.

[jeremyp]

I suppose it depends on how serious a threat a person views the Tories. I view them as a huge threat and would be prepared to change my vote, if needed. It is a strategy that has it's problems as you have identified, but I'm not sure the option of carrying on as usual is going to change things. If there are other options, short of revolution, then I'd be glad to hear them.

No doubt we will see in the fullness of time.

I do see your point but it makes me depressed that the only way to oust the current government may be to use tactics like that. I suppose I might feel better about it by the time of the next election and tbh, the last two were kind of stark for me because I couldn't vote Labour due to their stance on Brexit.

[Nearly Sane]

If there is some kind of tactical voting then I don't see it as disastrous. If it isn't then it is disastrous. No doubt some poll will be done to establish the truth of the matter.

Yes, the fact that we don't have PR makes it more difficult, but it shouldn't be beyond the bounds of possibility to present it in such a way as to seem reasonable to most potential voters. As I've said previously I don't think the same old, same old is going to cut it.

It is Labour's worst ever performance in a by election.

[Aruntraveller]

I do see your point but it makes me depressed that the only way to oust the current government may be to use tactics like that. I suppose I might feel better about it by the time of the next election and tbh, the last two were kind of stark for me because I couldn't vote Labour due to their stance on Brexit.

I agree it's not ideal, but if you have a system that is, in essence, rigged massively in favour of the two big parties, and actually more in favour of the Tories even than Labour, then it doesn't seem unreasonable to me to use a depressing tactic to change things. Of course, there are other problems as I am feeling less than impressed by Labour, LD and the Greens on the whole trans/GC issue - I was reading the Greens policy on this matter earlier. Would find it hard to vote for them currently.

[Aruntraveller]

A suggestion of an informal pact to stop trying in seats parties can't obviously capture:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/libdems-labour-progressive-alliance-tories_uk_60cc7854e4b01af0c26f2795?

Labour notably still holding onto grievances.

[Nearly Sane]

A suggestion of an informal pact to stop trying in seats parties can't obviously capture:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/libdems-labour-progressive-alliance-tories_uk_60cc7854e4b01af0c26f2795?

Labour notably still holding onto grievances.

To be fair, it looks equally chippy. All eyes now on what happens in Batley and Spen which I suspect will get a lot more coverage in the next 2 weeks.

[Nearly Sane]

To be fair to my incorrect prediction, some got it way more wrong


https://archive.is/EWEaL


And the explanation


https://archive.is/XjkcX

[jeremyp]

"If you can't vote for Arsenal vote against Spurs"

That's the sentiment I like.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57524463

[Aruntraveller]

Clear now that a lot of people voted against Spurs:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/18/the-votes-kept-piling-up-how-chesham-turned-away-from-tories?

[Nearly Sane]

Clear now that a lot of people voted against Spurs:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/18/the-votes-kept-piling-up-how-chesham-turned-away-from-tories?

I do have to note that the opposing of HS2 which the LDs support strikes me as opportunistic

[SteveH]

I do have to note that the opposing of HS2 which the LDs support strikes me as opportunistic

Possibly an element of that, but there are plenty of good, non-nimby reasons for opposing that ridiculous scheme.

[Aruntraveller]

Possibly an element of that, but there are plenty of good, non-nimby reasons for opposing that ridiculous scheme.

I think the point was that nationally the LD's support it, but locally in this instance they opposed it. Hence opportunistic.

[Nearly Sane]

Possibly an element of that, but there are plenty of good, non-nimby reasons for opposing that ridiculous scheme.

I am opposed to it. Doesn't make this anything other than opportunism.

[jeremyp]

I do have to note that the opposing of HS2 which the LDs support strikes me as opportunistic

That's the way constituency politics are supposed to work. If the constituents don't want HS2, the MP should be at liberty to represent their position no matter what the national party position is.