Arming the Ukrainians

[ad_orientem]

 

So how might Russia retaliate if Sweden and Finland join NATO?

Cyber attacks, misinformation, moving nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad etc. Not anything we're not prepared for. If Putin's plan was to discourage NATO expansion he's obviously failed miserably. This is two fingers right at him. Only himself to blame.

[Nearly Sane]

Cyber attacks, misinformation, moving nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad etc. Not anything we're not prepared for. If Putin's plan was to discourage NATO expansion he's obviously failed miserably. This is two fingers right at him. Only himself to blame.

The figure on the news was that approval for joining NATO in Finland had gone from 20% to 70% which for a shift in public opinion is remarkable. Does it feel like that there?

[ad_orientem]

The figure on the news was that approval for joining NATO in Finland had gone from 20% to 70% which for a shift in public opinion is remarkable. Does it feel like that there?

Yes it does. I'm a prime example. I think most people who have changed their opinion see this as a now or never moment.

[Dicky Underpants]

Good stuff! Kirill is a tool. It's important that all Christians speak out against this war and especially Orthodox. Religion is a part of the justification for this war, that Ukraine belongs to Russia because of Kieven Rus and its conversion.

I thought that Kyiv was converted first, and therefore Putin and his thugs have got it arse about face. I also thought that historically, Poland had more of a claim to Ukraine (if such ancient history has any validity at all - why not talk about Belarus as being part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. Absurd!)

[ad_orientem]

I thought that Kyiv was converted first, and therefore Putin and his thugs have got it arse about face. I also thought that historically, Poland had more of a claim to Ukraine (if such ancient history has any validity at all - why not talk about Belarus as being part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. Absurd!)

You're right. I was explaining it as Russia thinks. Russia has no claim to bigger brother status. It's a fabrication by Peter and Catherine. When Kievan Rus was being converted the area where Moscow stands today was inhabited by mainly Finnic tribes.

[ad_orientem]

Some media suggest that any advances of Russian orcs might be their last. They are depleted. Let's hope this is true.

[jeremyp]

Some media suggest that any advances of Russian orcs might be their last. They are depleted. Let's hope this is true.

Apparently, Russia is retreating from Kharkiv.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-13

Also, it was widely reported yesterday that the Russians lost an entire battalion tactical group including all its vehicles trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and they are not really progressing anywhere.

I think Russia is already losing badly.

[ad_orientem]

Russia is cutting off gas supplies to Finland at 7am tomorrow. Good, I say. I would rather pay more for my goods, tighten my belt, and wear an extra layer of clothes than fund Russia's war one cent more. Domestic use is miniscule here but it will affect industry somewhat.

Unsurprisingly, it seems most Russia supporters are also conspiracy theorists. At least the ones I've encountered on the internet. I wonder what makes a person's brain fry like that? Or is it from the tinfoil hat, causing the head to overheat?

[Spud]

Assuming the long term objective be to restore trade with Russia, how much of the problem is due just to Putin himself? What is the likelihood of a coup, and of a decent replacement for him?

[ad_orientem]

Hopefully he'll be fertilising sunflowers soon, assumind he really is ill. The aim should be to isolate Russia as long as Putin and his mafia are in power.

[ad_orientem]

A must read.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opinion/russia-fascism-ukraine-putin.html?smid=tw-share

[SweetPea]

Hopefully he'll be fertilising sunflowers soon, assumind he really is ill. The aim should be to isolate Russia as long as Putin and his mafia are in power.

Yes, I'd agree but what will Putin do when completely cornered with no way out? Here is an interesting interview with a nuclear weapons expert and Freddie Sayers is always a good unbiased interviewer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FsSLq1qvX8

[Anchorman]

Yes, I'd agree but what will Putin do when completely cornered with no way out? Here is an interesting interview with a nuclear weapons expert and Freddie Sayers is always a good unbiased interviewer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FsSLq1qvX8

   
I hate the idea of wishing anyone - not even Putin, ill, but someting has to explain his megalomania.

[jeremyp]

Assuming the long term objective be to restore trade with Russia, how much of the problem is due just to Putin himself? What is the likelihood of a coup, and of a decent replacement for him?

I'd say it's all Putin. I'd say this whole stupid horrible tragedy is entirely because Putin was losing his grip domestically and he needed an "oh look: squirrels!" moment. Same reason why the Argentinian Junta invaded the Falklands 40 years ago. It ended quite badly for them. We can only hope.

[jeremyp]

Yes, I'd agree but what will Putin do when completely cornered with no way out? Here is an interesting interview with a nuclear weapons expert and Freddie Sayers is always a good unbiased interviewer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FsSLq1qvX8

We don't really know if any of the Russian missiles still work. Nuclear weapons require a lot of maintenance, which is something that the Russians seem to be very bad at. We don't really want to find out because even one working ICBM spells catastrophe but I wouldn't be surprised if Putin is wondering how many of his missiles still work too.

There's another possibility and that is that Putin has already pressed the button and nothing happened. Obviously, this is pretty unlikely, but wouldn't it be nice(?) if, when this is all over, it comes to light that Putin tried to destroy the  World at the end of March but just caused a few fires in missile silos?

[ad_orientem]

Yes, I'd agree but what will Putin do when completely cornered with no way out? Here is an interesting interview with a nuclear weapons expert and Freddie Sayers is always a good unbiased interviewer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FsSLq1qvX8

They've given nuclear threats so often I think it's lost much of its meaning. Quite frankly, it's boring. If they were a comedy act the audience would be booing them, calling for better material.

[Spud]

We don't really know if any of the Russian missiles still work. Nuclear weapons require a lot of maintenance, which is something that the Russians seem to be very bad at. We don't really want to find out because even one working ICBM spells catastrophe but I wouldn't be surprised if Putin is wondering how many of his missiles still work too.

There's another possibility and that is that Putin has already pressed the button and nothing happened. Obviously, this is pretty unlikely, but wouldn't it be nice(?) if, when this is all over, it comes to light that Putin tried to destroy the  World at the end of March but just caused a few fires in missile silos?

interesting thought.

[Spud]

I still think it would have been better to give in to Russia's initial terms. Putin appears to me to have wanted Russian-soeakung regions to become independent and some kind of neutral zone between Russia and NATO countries.

I can understand Ukrainians wanting to fight for their territory and independence, especially because they love their families and land. But I am not sure that land is sacred enough to die for. Life is also sacred, more so in my opinion. Putin would not have dared to invade a NATO country, so I think to strengthen those borders would have been all that was necessary. I think there is a lot of misunderstanding in Russia - evidenced by their belief that the West want to invade it.

[Aruntraveller]

I still think it would have been better to give in to Russia's initial terms. Putin appears to me to have wanted Russian-soeakung regions to become independent and some kind of neutral zone between Russia and NATO countries.

I can understand Ukrainians wanting to fight for their territory and independence, especially because they love their families and land. But I am not sure that land is sacred enough to die for. Life is also sacred, more so in my opinion. Putin would not have dared to invade a NATO country, so I think to strengthen those borders would have been all that was necessary. I think there is a lot of misunderstanding in Russia - evidenced by their belief that the West want to invade it.

And what about all the other non-NATO countries that he would have then felt emboldened to attack?

[ad_orientem]

I still think it would have been better to give in to Russia's initial terms. Putin appears to me to have wanted Russian-soeakung regions to become independent and some kind of neutral zone between Russia and NATO countries.

I can understand Ukrainians wanting to fight for their territory and independence, especially because they love their families and land. But I am not sure that land is sacred enough to die for. Life is also sacred, more so in my opinion. Putin would not have dared to invade a NATO country, so I think to strengthen those borders would have been all that was necessary. I think there is a lot of misunderstanding in Russia - evidenced by their belief that the West want to invade it.

Clearly unacceptable. As for Donbas, Russia has moved Russians in and deported Ukranians to Russia. That's what they do. They have form. The only option is to make sure every last Russian soldier is forced out of Donbas and Crimea. Any other option merely emboldens Putin.

[Spud]

And what about all the other non-NATO countries that he would have then felt emboldened to attack?

If they agreed to his peace terms he would not need to use military force.

[ad_orientem]

If they agreed to his peace terms he would not need to use military force.

That's the might is right argument again. Give in to the bully in the hope he might stop bullying you. It's not an option though because the bully never stops there.

[Aruntraveller]

If they agreed to his peace terms he would not need to use military force.

Are you being deliberately obtuse?

As Ad-o has already pointed out you are encouraging a "might is right" position.

Why should sovereign countries agree to a foreign powers' peace terms, if those peace terms mean giving up their own sovereign powers?

[jeremyp]

I still think it would have been better to give in to Russia's initial terms. Putin appears to me to have wanted Russian-soeakung regions to become independent and some kind of neutral zone between Russia and NATO countries.

I can understand Ukrainians wanting to fight for their territory and independence, especially because they love their families and land. But I am not sure that land is sacred enough to die for. Life is also sacred, more so in my opinion. Putin would not have dared to invade a NATO country, so I think to strengthen those borders would have been all that was necessary. I think there is a lot of misunderstanding in Russia - evidenced by their belief that the West want to invade it.

If Russia had been sincere about its initial terms, you might have had a point. However, if there's one thing we've learned about Putin it is that he doesn't think he needs to keep his word.

I don't think it's got anything to do with Russia needing a buffer against NATO. That's just the justification for domestic consumption. In my opinion, Putin is trying to rebuild the Russian empire and he's doing it to distract from domestic troubles.

This is not about dying for sacred land, it's about not wanting to be ruled by a foreign dictator for the foreseeable future. Ukraine is fighting an existential war. If they lose, their country ceases to exist.

[Spud]

I was reading this morning that China is to expand its Navy. The reaction from the US is to raise the alarm. Likewise, Russia sees NATO expansion as a provocation.