Arming the Ukrainians

[Spud]

I can't see the point, since if no-one will actually fight with them they haven't got a hope against Russia, who will say thank you very much and take over any weapons we supply. Equally, what is the point in training them? If they'd joined NATO already (no problem with that) it might be a different matter; maybe I'm over-simplifying it though.

[jeremyp]

They're actually much better prepared than you might think. They have 200,000 men under arms and are quite well equipped. They will not be a pushover for Russia and, if Russia did invade, it probably will not go well for them. Russia's economy is on the rocks at the moment (that's part of the reason why Putin is doing this). Any further sanctions will be very bad for them, plus the cost of the war won't help.

[Spud]

They're actually much better prepared than you might think. They have 200,000 men under arms and are quite well equipped.

That's certainly a significant deterrent. I do think it is provocative to be arming them though.

[jeremyp]

That's certainly a significant deterrent. I do think it is provocative to be arming them though.

We should just leave them swinging in the wind?

[Spud]

We should just leave them swinging in the wind?

We should send Bibles to Russia, maybe load the anti tank guns with them.

[splashscuba]

We should send Bibles to Russia, maybe load the anti tank guns with them.

Really? I think sending them Hitchhikers guide to the galaxy would be better. At least they would be entertained and maybe distracted. All the smiting in the bible is just as likely to be provocative.

[Anchorman]

We should send Bibles to Russia, maybe load the anti tank guns with them.

   




'Brother Andrew' beat you to it.

[Outrider]

We should send Bibles to Russia, maybe load the anti tank guns with them.

Because Putin being propped up by the Russian Orthodoxy isn't too much religious interference already?

I do think it is provocative to be arming them though.

The provocation is Putin loading the border with tank brigades so soon after his last invasion of Ukraine, and then making demands not just that other countries don't make alliances with each other that he doesn't like, but that they walk back on agreements already made. Arming a potential ally, who sits on the border of an aggressively expansionist authoritarian with a vested interest in dismantling our alliances, who has already been implicated in a number of destablising events in the region, and with interference in foreign elections is not 'provocation', it's a proportionate (possibly slightly insufficient) response.

O.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Because Putin being propped up by the Russian Orthodoxy isn't too much religious interference already?

The provocation is Putin loading the border with tank brigades so soon after his last invasion of Ukraine, and then making demands not just that other countries don't make alliances with each other that he doesn't like, but that they walk back on agreements already made. Arming a potential ally, who sits on the border of an aggressively expansionist authoritarian with a vested interest in dismantling our alliances, who has already been implicated in a number of destablising events in the region, and with interference in foreign elections is not 'provocation', it's a proportionate (possibly slightly insufficient) response.

O.

I've thought about the unhappy attitude toward mass humanity in some parts of Orthodox society. I wondered if it was to do with a vagueness in their Doctrine of judgment, sin and salvation as opposed to the thorough going pessimism about the fall of humanity, Damnation and it's consequences and the seriousness of them in western theology.

Difficult to see Orthodoxy as a critical component in Putin's actions.

[Spud]

   




'Brother Andrew' beat you to it.

And the ABofC, iirc?

[Spud]

Really? I think sending them Hitchhikers guide to the galaxy would be better. At least they would be entertained and maybe distracted. All the smiting in the bible is just as likely to be provocative.

Yes I should have said New Testaments

[Spud]

it's a proportionate (possibly slightly insufficient) response.

O.

I get that there's a lot of historical baggage underlying the situation. Assuming Russia is going to attack, my main concern is that we are doing what we did in Iraq and Afghanistan - training and equipimg the defenders who in this case are certain to lose, unless the West assists with the actual fighting.

[Outrider]

I get that there's a lot of historical baggage underlying the situation. Assuming Russia is going to attack, my main concern is that we are doing what we did in Iraq and Afghanistan - training and equipimg the defenders who in this case are certain to lose, unless the West assists with the actual fighting.

Interesting depiction of the situation summarising at least part of a Russian perspective in the Guardian today - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/20/britain-russia-ukraine-border-dispute. I don't agree with the conclusion, but it's an interesting take on how it's being pitched 'on the other side'.

Some of the arms provision is symbolic for Ukraine's benefit partly, and partly to demonstrate a degree of solidarity in the probably futile hope of dissuading Putin - it's not a guarantee that he'll make a military move, but if he doesn't it's not likely to be because of posturing on the part of NATO or the US. Some of it is just another opportunistic money-grab for the UK arms industry and their friends in the corridors of power - it wouldn't surprise me to find that what's being provided is hopelessly outdated surplus.

I think if there were another invasion by Putin there would be a military response of some sort this time - Biden could do with something that will suck support from the right-wing Americans, and a war against the Ruskies would do that, Johnson could do with changing the headlines right now and Putin's made this at least in part about NATO which will incite them to a response even if no NATO members are directly threatened. They all let Crimea go, militarily, thinking that sanctions would make the point, and if there's another attack then it will be apparent that wasn't the case.

O.

[Spud]

Interesting depiction of the situation summarising at least part of a Russian perspective in the Guardian today -
....
O.

Thanks, an interesting read there. While I can believe the good intentions of Estonia, USA, Britain etc I fall back on Luke 14:28-32 which advises against biting off more than one can chew. In this kind of situation it advises the weaker country to ask the stronger one for terms of peace.

[Aruntraveller]

In this kind of situation it advises the weaker country to send ask the stronger one for terms of peace.

Does that usually turn out well for the weaker country?

[Spud]

Does that usually turn out well for the weaker country?

The weaker country has to give up something, like autonomy or land, and in return its inhabitants stay alive. So on balance, yes. In this context, it would mean Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO, and autonomy for Russian-speaking regions. I guess it's a reality check for Ukraine in that they have to understand that joining NATO would be provocative to its non-NATO neighbour. It seems to me that NATO also needs a reality check: the more countries that join then the stronger it becomes, but that can appear aggressive in itself.

[Spud]

Also interesting that Luke 14:31-33 is interpreted by most commentators as implying that seeking terms of peace symbolizes giving up one's Christian 'fight' against sin. But I think Jesus is talking about making peace in a positive sense. So he means we need to make peace with God instead of fighting against him.

[jeremyp]

The weaker country has to give up something, like autonomy or land, and in return its inhabitants stay alive. So on balance, yes. In this context, it would mean Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO, and autonomy for Russian-speaking regions. I guess it's a reality check for Ukraine in that they have to understand that joining NATO would be provocative to its non-NATO neighbour. It seems to me that NATO also needs a reality check: the more countries that join then the stronger it becomes, but that can appear aggressive in itself.

Let's be clear: the aggressor in this case is Putin. The reason he's doing it is because Russia's economy is in a hole and his people are suffering. He needs to distract them so they don't turn against him.

[Outrider]

The weaker country has to give up something, like autonomy or land, and in return its inhabitants stay alive. So on balance, yes. In this context, it would mean Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO, and autonomy for Russian-speaking regions. I guess it's a reality check for Ukraine in that they have to understand that joining NATO would be provocative to its non-NATO neighbour. It seems to me that NATO also needs a reality check: the more countries that join then the stronger it becomes, but that can appear aggressive in itself.

At the risk of getting a bit deep, though, which is the 'weaker' nation? Russia has tanks and ammunition, but limited funds to deploy them for any length of time and innumerable other financial issues in the background; Ukraine has questionable but strong 'allies' (at least temporarily), but knows that depending on those allies is just putting off paying the bill that will become due for a time. Russia isn't really competing against Ukraine in this, it's targetting the US and NATO, who are strong enough not to be the 'weaker' country militarily, but might lack the political and moral willpower to make a stand, just as they failed to do so when Russia invaded the Crimea.

O.

[Spud]

At the risk of getting a bit deep, though, which is the 'weaker' nation? Russia has tanks and ammunition, but limited funds to deploy them for any length of time and innumerable other financial issues in the background; Ukraine has questionable but strong 'allies' (at least temporarily), but knows that depending on those allies is just putting off paying the bill that will become due for a time. Russia isn't really competing against Ukraine in this, it's targeting the US and NATO, who are strong enough not to be the 'weaker' country militarily, but might lack the political and moral willpower to make a stand, just as they failed to do so when Russia invaded the Crimea.

O.

Well probably Nato is stronger, but if it doesn't 'go in' to defend Ukraine then its strength is irrelevant. However much ammo they give them, it won't be enough to stop Russia. It will be wasted and lead to increased loss of life.

[jeremyp]

Well probably Nato is stronger, but if it doesn't 'go in' to defend Ukraine then its strength is irrelevant. However much ammo they give them, it won't be enough to stop Russia. It will be wasted and lead to increased loss of life.

If Russia goes in to war, they won't win. They may take some territory but it'll end up in some sort of stalemate that bleeds the economies of both countries dry.

You have to understand that Russia, for all its size, is not a strong country. Its GDP is about half of ours. How does it afford all that military hardware then? The answer is that it doesn't. It's all badly maintained and falling to pieces. Factor in that most of the Russian army is conscripted and none of its soldiers want to fight for Putin's vanity project whereas the Ukrainians are fighting an existential crisis and you'll see the Russians cannot win a war in the Ukraine. Putin knows this and he's only doing it as a "hey look a squirrel" moment to distract from his domestic problems.

[Outrider]

If Russia goes in to war, they won't win. They may take some territory but it'll end up in some sort of stalemate that bleeds the economies of both countries dry.

You have to understand that Russia, for all its size, is not a strong country. Its GDP is about half of ours. How does it afford all that military hardware then? The answer is that it doesn't. It's all badly maintained and falling to pieces. Factor in that most of the Russian army is conscripted and none of its soldiers want to fight for Putin's vanity project whereas the Ukrainians are fighting an existential crisis and you'll see the Russians cannot win a war in the Ukraine. Putin knows this and he's only doing it as a "hey look a squirrel" moment to distract from his domestic problems.

Russia has the hardware and the manpower to take significant sections of Ukraine, and enough local support to disrupt Ukraine's attempts to keep or retake it. Russia doesn't have the power to take on 'the West', but any invasion will be undertaken if and when Putin thinks that there isn't the political will to take a stand, exactly as was the case when he invaded Crimea.

O.

[Spud]

It's quite hard to think of a country that can produce aircraft like the recent Sukhoi jets as not strong. But given what Jeremy says, the sanctions and arms assistance planned may well be enough to deter them. It seems a bit of a North/South Korea situation, with forces piled up on both sides of the border.

[jeremyp]

Russia has the hardware and the manpower to take significant sections of Ukraine, and enough local support to disrupt Ukraine's attempts to keep or retake it. Russia doesn't have the power to take on 'the West', but any invasion will be undertaken if and when Putin thinks that there isn't the political will to take a stand, exactly as was the case when he invaded Crimea.

O.

No, because the Ukrainian army is a very different proposition compared to when Russia took the Crimea. If Russia tries to invade the Ukraine, it will be a disaster for them.

[Spud]

If Russia goes in to war, they won't win. They may take some territory but it'll end up in some sort of stalemate that bleeds the economies of both countries dry.

You have to understand that Russia, for all its size, is not a strong country. Its GDP is about half of ours. How does it afford all that military hardware then? The answer is that it doesn't. It's all badly maintained and falling to pieces. Factor in that most of the Russian army is conscripted and none of its soldiers want to fight for Putin's vanity project whereas the Ukrainians are fighting an existential crisis and you'll see the Russians cannot win a war in the Ukraine. Putin knows this and he's only doing it as a "hey look a squirrel" moment to distract from his domestic problems.

This squirrel was definitely a distraction when I came across it last year.